San Diego RE inventory has stabilized and begun to shrink = have we arrived at the bottom????

[jeeman]

Not agreed to yet, but look at 6941 Santa Fe Canyon in 92129. That’s looking to be a $250k loss….ouch!

Jeeman

[jeeman]

Not agreed to yet, but look at 6941 Santa Fe Canyon in 92129. That’s looking to be a $250k loss….ouch!

Jeeman

[tugg49]

I’ve got four homes w/in a quarter mile that have been empty all year. No for sale/no signs of life/no nothing. What about those homes and who in the heck can hold an empty house for 6 months w/o some kind of activity. I stopped counting for sale signs and start looking for piling trash, unkempt landscape and newspapers composting in the driveway.
If there is a bottom the initial glut on a minor upswing will be devastating on prices and allowances. A ways to go for capitulation.

[tugg49]

I’ve got four homes w/in a quarter mile that have been empty all year. No for sale/no signs of life/no nothing. What about those homes and who in the heck can hold an empty house for 6 months w/o some kind of activity. I stopped counting for sale signs and start looking for piling trash, unkempt landscape and newspapers composting in the driveway.
If there is a bottom the initial glut on a minor upswing will be devastating on prices and allowances. A ways to go for capitulation.

[no_such_reality]

what do mean by “can’t afford the short sale?” Can’t someone submit a deal to the lender where there is little if any $$ out of pocket from the seller?

They can, but as Bugs pointed out, the banks aren’t biting. In fact, many of the banks are in as denial as the delusional sellers asking 20% more than peak prices.

If you don’t have enough money to make the loan whole on sale, a short sale is very low probability at this point.

Bugs brings up an interesting point regarding halting the 2nd, I wonder if they could buy time doing it, or if penalties compound too quickly. Or more likely, much like tax provisions, if a defaulted second becomes a reason for the 1st to call the loan?

[no_such_reality]

what do mean by “can’t afford the short sale?” Can’t someone submit a deal to the lender where there is little if any $$ out of pocket from the seller?

They can, but as Bugs pointed out, the banks aren’t biting. In fact, many of the banks are in as denial as the delusional sellers asking 20% more than peak prices.

If you don’t have enough money to make the loan whole on sale, a short sale is very low probability at this point.

Bugs brings up an interesting point regarding halting the 2nd, I wonder if they could buy time doing it, or if penalties compound too quickly. Or more likely, much like tax provisions, if a defaulted second becomes a reason for the 1st to call the loan?

[sdrealtor]

I just spoke with a REO specialist that hasnt been very busy. In the last 2 weeks he got 25 new listings. Seems to me that’s a sign the banks are starting to understand what they are looking at.

[sdrealtor]

I just spoke with a REO specialist that hasnt been very busy. In the last 2 weeks he got 25 new listings. Seems to me that’s a sign the banks are starting to understand what they are looking at.

[North County Jim]

Bugs,

The house that recently sold at 1090 Crimson in San Marcos just before the trustee auction appears to have been a pretty large short sale.

Countrywide held a first at $680k and a second at $170k on a sale they approved at $710k. The loss here is $140k plus expenses and carrying costs on a property they never received a payment on.

[North County Jim]

Bugs,

The house that recently sold at 1090 Crimson in San Marcos just before the trustee auction appears to have been a pretty large short sale.

Countrywide held a first at $680k and a second at $170k on a sale they approved at $710k. The loss here is $140k plus expenses and carrying costs on a property they never received a payment on.

[Steve Beebo]

I did an appraisal on a home this week in the Bonita Long Canyon / Rialto area that is going to be a short sale of $300,000+. It sold in 2005 for $1,200,000, with an 80/20 loan, It’s now in the foreclosure process, but it’s selling now as a short sale for just under $900,000.

What I’ve noticed in the last several months, is that I’m surprised how relatively stable the market seems in some areas, like parts of Carmel Valley, Scripps Ranch, La Jolla, Rancho Bernardo, and Rancho Penasquitos. I’m also surprised at how horrible things are in other areas, specifically Eastlake and Otay Ranch. And the market is so bad in parts of Riverside County, like Perris and Lake Elsinore, that there really aren’t any words to adequately describe it.

[Steve Beebo]

I did an appraisal on a home this week in the Bonita Long Canyon / Rialto area that is going to be a short sale of $300,000+. It sold in 2005 for $1,200,000, with an 80/20 loan, It’s now in the foreclosure process, but it’s selling now as a short sale for just under $900,000.

What I’ve noticed in the last several months, is that I’m surprised how relatively stable the market seems in some areas, like parts of Carmel Valley, Scripps Ranch, La Jolla, Rancho Bernardo, and Rancho Penasquitos. I’m also surprised at how horrible things are in other areas, specifically Eastlake and Otay Ranch. And the market is so bad in parts of Riverside County, like Perris and Lake Elsinore, that there really aren’t any words to adequately describe it.

[drunkle]

i’m assuming you’ve never been to eastlake. or perris.

for crying out loud, in 2000ish when i was working a job site in eastlake, i was appalled that people were camping out waiting for their turn to sign up. 350k to live in a tract house in the boonies with crap traffic in crap chulajuana.

i dont think those people were speculators, either. rather, they were stirred up by the constant media reports of a housing shortage.

[drunkle]

i’m assuming you’ve never been to eastlake. or perris.

for crying out loud, in 2000ish when i was working a job site in eastlake, i was appalled that people were camping out waiting for their turn to sign up. 350k to live in a tract house in the boonies with crap traffic in crap chulajuana.

i dont think those people were speculators, either. rather, they were stirred up by the constant media reports of a housing shortage.

[Coronita]

I did an appraisal on a home this week in the Bonita Long Canyon / Rialto area that is going to be a short sale of $300,000+. It sold in 2005 for $1,200,000, with an 80/20 loan, It's now in the foreclosure process, but it's selling now as a short sale for just under $900,000. What I've noticed in the last several months, is that I'm surprised how relatively stable the market seems in some areas, like parts of Carmel Valley, Scripps Ranch, La Jolla, Rancho Bernardo, and Rancho Penasquitos. I'm also surprised at how horrible things are in other areas, specifically Eastlake and Otay Ranch. And the market is so bad in parts of Riverside County, like Perris and Lake Elsinore, that there really aren't any words to adequately describe it.

 

It's pretty easy to explain this. There hasn't been enough price differentiation yet in house prices. There are some areas where it just doesn't make sense for home prices to be above a certain level no matter how big, how upgraded, etc.

$900k for a home in the boonies isn't nearly the same thing as $900k inland in for example Rancho P, Rancho B, or CV. I think it’s a lot to do with the income levels of the home owners where they are buying. Statistically, people living in the boonies, or in temecula, otay, etc probably aren’t the higher income earners that have the financial means to sustain a 800-900k home/
Also, newer areas bordering sketchy neighborhoods are also an issue. The Otay Ranch area doesn't surprise me one bit. Look around the area outside of the new development. Chula Vista isn't an area necessarily known for it's great schools and high income earners. I wouldn’t live there even though the immediate neighborhood is nice, just because of the surrounding. If I really needed a home, I’d rather stretch and buy something in a better surrounding.

All the housing issues are going to start hemorraging in these outlyer ereas first, and then depending on how long this correction lasts, starting moving into the more desirable locations. We're already seeing the fallout from Temecula… It wouldn't surprise me if Oceanside get hit pretty bad soon (if not already). Sorry, don't follow oceanside. It also doesn’t surprise me that a lot of the fraud happened in the outlyer areas, as statistically the less financially savy are the ones usually the easiest to be taken advantage of.

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