San Diego RE inventory has stabilized and begun to shrink = have we arrived at the bottom????

[drunkle]

i agree with guy.

if the number of people agreeing with each other doesn’t increase, but the number of people disagreeing is falling,
more people will be agreeing than disagreeing.

[drunkle]

i agree with guy.

if the number of people agreeing with each other doesn’t increase, but the number of people disagreeing is falling,
more people will be agreeing than disagreeing.

[cr]

I’ll ignore the subtle implication that all housing bears are doomsdayers and point out one element that I think alone answers the question:

Foreclosures – they take roughly 6 months to reach the market. May was up 90% YOY nationally, CA has 1 in 300 foreclosing, mostly in the cooling markets. People here know this.

The word “stabilized” means nothing. Supply/demand are far more relevant. If inventories (currently in excess) stabilize in the excess, meaning the number of months supply available remains constant, prices will still fall.

Ask this question again in November.

[cr]

I’ll ignore the subtle implication that all housing bears are doomsdayers and point out one element that I think alone answers the question:

Foreclosures – they take roughly 6 months to reach the market. May was up 90% YOY nationally, CA has 1 in 300 foreclosing, mostly in the cooling markets. People here know this.

The word “stabilized” means nothing. Supply/demand are far more relevant. If inventories (currently in excess) stabilize in the excess, meaning the number of months supply available remains constant, prices will still fall.

Ask this question again in November.

[4plexowner]

November of 2010 that is

[4plexowner]

November of 2010 that is

[bubble_contagion]

From Bob Casagrand: (6/08/07)

Inventory was 20,904, over 9 months supply. The supply range for inventory varies by size of home with the lowest being 8 months and the high being 12 months. The supply is up 17% from last year and almost 100% from this time in 2005. Year-to-date listings totaled 34,431 which is inline with last years listing number but up 40% from the same period in 2005. Expired, cancelled and withdrawn listings totaled 17,382 up 224% from last years 7,763 and 525% from 2005. These numbers indicate how many times a home is re-listed before it sells or the sellers give up trying to sell.

The 224% increased in expired, cancelled or withdraw listing means there is a lot if inventory “waiting on the sidelines”. People are just renting out, waiting for the market to pick-up or just giving up on selling and going into foreclosure.

BTW I agree that listed inventory is slightly lower this year than last year.

[bubble_contagion]

From Bob Casagrand: (6/08/07)

Inventory was 20,904, over 9 months supply. The supply range for inventory varies by size of home with the lowest being 8 months and the high being 12 months. The supply is up 17% from last year and almost 100% from this time in 2005. Year-to-date listings totaled 34,431 which is inline with last years listing number but up 40% from the same period in 2005. Expired, cancelled and withdrawn listings totaled 17,382 up 224% from last years 7,763 and 525% from 2005. These numbers indicate how many times a home is re-listed before it sells or the sellers give up trying to sell.

The 224% increased in expired, cancelled or withdraw listing means there is a lot if inventory “waiting on the sidelines”. People are just renting out, waiting for the market to pick-up or just giving up on selling and going into foreclosure.

BTW I agree that listed inventory is slightly lower this year than last year.

[PD]

I’m with you 4plex. I do wonder what affect blogs like this one will have when we actually do reach the bottom. In previous cycles, very few people had any substantive knowledge about cycles, etc. This time, information is out there for the masses. When the majority of posters here start agreeing that we have reached or are close to the bottom, will that be a catalyst for large numbers of people to start buying? It all depends, of course, on how many people actually read Piggingtons (and others). I would really like to know how many people are lurking. I read a number of blogs daily but only ever post here, so I am invisible one these other blogs. Calculated Risk is my favorite (after here). I just love Tanta!

[PD]

I’m with you 4plex. I do wonder what affect blogs like this one will have when we actually do reach the bottom. In previous cycles, very few people had any substantive knowledge about cycles, etc. This time, information is out there for the masses. When the majority of posters here start agreeing that we have reached or are close to the bottom, will that be a catalyst for large numbers of people to start buying? It all depends, of course, on how many people actually read Piggingtons (and others). I would really like to know how many people are lurking. I read a number of blogs daily but only ever post here, so I am invisible one these other blogs. Calculated Risk is my favorite (after here). I just love Tanta!

[sdrealtor]

FYi, the vast majority of expired and cancelled listings are relisted within one week which kinda pops the bubble of the inventory on the sidelines argument. The real invenory on the sidelines isnt these, it’s all the NOD’s and potential short sale properties out there.

[sdrealtor]

FYi, the vast majority of expired and cancelled listings are relisted within one week which kinda pops the bubble of the inventory on the sidelines argument. The real invenory on the sidelines isnt these, it’s all the NOD’s and potential short sale properties out there.

[CMcG]

You guys, please don’t scare off people who are less bearish than the majority here. I am a bear, but I did buy in February and my situation is unique and I think the blog will get boring if some of you shout down newbs with different opinions or call them trolls. No, I don’t think I’m “special” or that San Diego is immune and I’m equally pissed off that the MSM didn’t move on this story until recently. But let’s keep the dialogue going. Thanks. Been lurking here for a year.

[CMcG]

You guys, please don’t scare off people who are less bearish than the majority here. I am a bear, but I did buy in February and my situation is unique and I think the blog will get boring if some of you shout down newbs with different opinions or call them trolls. No, I don’t think I’m “special” or that San Diego is immune and I’m equally pissed off that the MSM didn’t move on this story until recently. But let’s keep the dialogue going. Thanks. Been lurking here for a year.

[5yearwaiter]

As long as you think that you didn’t buy home as an quick investiment and this for standard living for a while with which that you can aford then you are not able to worry about this forum comments. It’s like something you invest like a stock and worried about all for immediate returns:-)

[Author]

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