San Diego Inventory Sucks…

[Coronita]

[quote=The-Shoveler][quote=flu][quote=CA renter]C’mon, flu. Share your thoughts. :)[/quote]

I’m throwing down the white flag here. RE prices are going higher. I can’t float with good cash flow at this point. Sucks that I didn’t buy more. Also, equity markets are going to float higher…Sucks to be in cash 40% too instead of previous 90%…

My last option is to buy a new primary..Which I will have to wait. Higher end homes haven’t gone *that* much higher, but at the same time neither has my budget.

No point wasting my time thinking RE prices are going to fall or correct in a meaningful way. Gotta think of other areas/ways to generate income.

Sometimes the biggest hazard to one’s wealth is one’s own pessimism….so I’ve learned.

Missed the boat bigtime…Oh well.[/quote]

Sometimes it can save your Butt too.[/quote]

There’s a huge difference between passing up risk sometimes, and being a perpetual perma-bear….

[an]

[quote=flu][quote=The-Shoveler][quote=flu][quote=CA renter]C’mon, flu. Share your thoughts. :)[/quote]

I’m throwing down the white flag here. RE prices are going higher. I can’t float with good cash flow at this point. Sucks that I didn’t buy more. Also, equity markets are going to float higher…Sucks to be in cash 40% too instead of previous 90%…

My last option is to buy a new primary..Which I will have to wait. Higher end homes haven’t gone *that* much higher, but at the same time neither has my budget.

No point wasting my time thinking RE prices are going to fall or correct in a meaningful way. Gotta think of other areas/ways to generate income.

Sometimes the biggest hazard to one’s wealth is one’s own pessimism….so I’ve learned.

Missed the boat bigtime…Oh well.[/quote]

Sometimes it can save your Butt too.[/quote]

There’s a huge difference between passing up risk sometimes, and being a perpetual perma-bear….[/quote]
we all were bears in 2005 and it saved out butts, but if you were a RE bear early last year, you’ve missed a huge run up. That’s the difference between perma-bear and a realist.

[no_such_reality]

[quote=CA renter]I don’t think these investors really understand what they’re getting into. [/quote]

Yes they do. For the bigger funds, it’s a distributed apartment complex that will be managed by a subsidiary that will be indistinguishable from the IAC arm of the Irvine Company.

Or the smaller ones, a cut-rate West Side Rental churn and burn.

And what that really means is that sans a significant vacancy problem, renters will see severe upside pressure in rents and churn.

[Coronita]

[quote=AN][quote=flu][quote=The-Shoveler][quote=flu][quote=CA renter]C’mon, flu. Share your thoughts. :)[/quote]

I’m throwing down the white flag here. RE prices are going higher. I can’t float with good cash flow at this point. Sucks that I didn’t buy more. Also, equity markets are going to float higher…Sucks to be in cash 40% too instead of previous 90%…

My last option is to buy a new primary..Which I will have to wait. Higher end homes haven’t gone *that* much higher, but at the same time neither has my budget.

No point wasting my time thinking RE prices are going to fall or correct in a meaningful way. Gotta think of other areas/ways to generate income.

Sometimes the biggest hazard to one’s wealth is one’s own pessimism….so I’ve learned.

Missed the boat bigtime…Oh well.[/quote]

Sometimes it can save your Butt too.[/quote]

There’s a huge difference between passing up risk sometimes, and being a perpetual perma-bear….[/quote]
we all were bears in 2005 and it saved out butts, but if you were a RE bear early last year, you’ve missed a huge run up. That’s the difference between perma-bear and a realist.[/quote]

Then again it’s far easier to just say no it ain’t gonna work, not think, not research, not do anything, if one believes nothing is gonna work. Lesson learned to myself… Opportunity is never spoon fed to you. It might be right there in front of you, but if you don’t act, no use…Also, your opportunity usually occurs because because someone else who had the chance before you chickened out… My chicken out in some of the previous RE possibilities looks like there are a steal now…Someone else that picked them up did pretty well.

[The-Shoveler]

“Also, your opportunity usually occurs because because someone else who had the chance before you chickened out… My chicken out in some of the previous RE possibilities looks like there are a steal now…Someone else that picked them up did pretty well.”

If you picked anything up in the last 3 years IMO you did well.

Stop beating yourself in the head, you probably did a lot better than most, no one gets them all.

[The-Shoveler]

Most of todays CA lizard lands become tomorrows Job centers.

I have been around long enough to see it at least in three times in three locals, each further out from the other.

[Coronita]

[quote=The-Shoveler]”Also, your opportunity usually occurs because because someone else who had the chance before you chickened out… My chicken out in some of the previous RE possibilities looks like there are a steal now…Someone else that picked them up did pretty well.”

If you picked anything up in the last 3 years IMO you did well.

Stop beating yourself in the head, you probably did a lot better than most, no one gets them all.[/quote]

“Greed is good…”

Gordon Gekko

Oh well. Looks like I’ll be running a pseudo rat race longer than I wanted to.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=sdduuuude]Calculated Risk posts this data, related to new household formation, regularly. It is always interesting:

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/01/new-home-sales-and-distressing-gap.html

If you assume that the sale of a new home (not a resale home) represents a new household formation, you can see the difference in hew household formation on his graph. New household formation rate is way down from the peak. Even down from well before the peak.[/quote]

sdduuuude, McBride’s graph is for SAAR (Scottsdale [AZ] Assn of Realtors), no?

Has there been more building going on in metro Phoenix in recent years than SD County? From his graph, it looks as though there has been.

I can’t understand that since the Phoenix metro area is grossly overbuilt.

We should never assume that the sale of a new home represents a “new household formation.”

Unless homebuyers move in from out of (SD) county OR, if local, a parent’s back bdrm directly into a local rental home or brand new home community in SD County, there is no “new household formation,” IMO.

If “local” homebuyers move out of a local rental into a brand new home OR resale home which they purchased, they have displaced the rental they were occupying.

In several coastal CA counties, there isn’t any (and hasn’t been for many years) “new home tracts.” So, unless homebuyers in these counties are moving out of local parents’ back bdrms into an existing home which they are renting or have purchased, there is no new household formation.

New buyers/tenants in existing homes are simply replacing the most recent household which occupied the unit. If an existing property is sold or rented and the owner/previous owner then leaves the county, then that is actually a “negative household formation” if the new occupant is moving from another local property.

I really think the term “new-household formation” needs clarifying because “Big Development” and CAR/NAR like to use this phrase to “justify” why CA needs more and more new residential construction.

If there weren’t any new construction for the next 20++ years in CA’s job centers, there will still be plenty of places to live within close proximity to those jobs.

To maintain and increase profits, “Big Development” uses the mantra of “CA is running out of housing” to pander to their “captive audience,” the “lizardland-lifestyle seekers.”

NOTHING could be further from the truth.

[Coronita]

.

ah forget it…

signing off.

[outtamojo]

[quote=AN][quote=flu][quote=The-Shoveler][quote=flu][quote=CA renter]C’mon, flu. Share your thoughts. :)[/quote]

I’m throwing down the white flag here. RE prices are going higher. I can’t float with good cash flow at this point. Sucks that I didn’t buy more. Also, equity markets are going to float higher…Sucks to be in cash 40% too instead of previous 90%…

My last option is to buy a new primary..Which I will have to wait. Higher end homes haven’t gone *that* much higher, but at the same time neither has my budget.

No point wasting my time thinking RE prices are going to fall or correct in a meaningful way. Gotta think of other areas/ways to generate income.

Sometimes the biggest hazard to one’s wealth is one’s own pessimism….so I’ve learned.

Missed the boat bigtime…Oh well.[/quote]

Sometimes it can save your Butt too.[/quote]

There’s a huge difference between passing up risk sometimes, and being a perpetual perma-bear….[/quote]
we all were bears in 2005 and it saved out butts, but if you were a RE bear early last year, you’ve missed a huge run up. That’s the difference between perma-bear and a realist.[/quote]

I’d say late 2011 was the latest any of of not so well connected folk could buy anything decent at crash prices in North County. From then on out pocket sales ruled the landscape.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=The-Shoveler]Most of todays CA lizard lands become tomorrows Job centers.

I have been around long enough to see it at least in three times in three locals, each further out from the other.[/quote]

I understand, Shoveler. But if those Lizardland Biz Parks didn’t exist because where they sit was still dominated by lizards, then those companies proffering the “new jobs” would have simply stayed in their old digs in dtn SD, Kearny Mesa, SD MV, UTC/Golden Triangle/SV or the urban OC.

Commercial properties in the established biz areas of SD Co/OC were displaced and often left vacant for months/years after local companies moved out to Lizardland en masse.

It’s a case of which came first, the chicken or the egg.

San Mateo and Santa Clara Counties, in the heart of CA’s renowned “SV” are a case in point. Big biz stays put and even expands its local “campus” to take up a good portion of a small city.

This region’s new hires flock around the area of their jobs searching for resales/rentals. Those who are savvy, lucky and can manage their budgets wisely find local housing. Those that have been financially prudent can actually buy a residence. Those that refuse to accept the housing that is there commute long and arduous distances every day and/or leave their jobs prematurely, due to their arduous commutes caused by their non-acceptance of the local housing that is on offer.

I don’t buy a SV new hire’s story (who has just accepted a job in the highest-paying region in the nation) that he/she “can’t afford” to live there. “Suitable” housing is in the eye of the beholder.

With massive natural open space (NOT desert, as in SD County) permanently established several decades ago by their wise PTB, these counties offer a quality of life that is bar none.

All is as it always has been and should be in ALL CA coastal counties.

[The-Shoveler]

Funny, SD and San Jose, are run very similar in a lot of respects, why do you think SJ companies started to move here in the late 80’s early 90’s.

It has more to do with the policies in a very small city really.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=The-Shoveler]Funny, SD and San Jose, are run very similar in a lot of respects, why do you think SJ companies started to move here in the late 80’s early 90’s.

It has more to do with the policies in a very small city really.[/quote]

I have been visiting relatives in SJ since about 1968. Only in the eastern portion of the city (flatland) and a small area in the southern portion that is not open space and abutting Morgan Hill has been filled with residential tracts since then.

Not sure, but I don’t believe there have been any CFD’s formed within the city of SJ. The residential tract construction east of the Capitol Exwy (former avocado groves) was actually “infill.”

The eastern hills overlooking SJ’s eastern flatland (fmr avocado groves) were developed with custom homes little by little in the ’50’s/’60’s.

To this day, these residents are still on septic and the current building code there requires fire sprinklers in every room of the house.

Even though the populations of both cities are similar, SJ’s leaders did NOT give Big Development permission to bulldoze every square inch of their city (as SD’s leaders did). Why? In the first place, they never had the land available for massive CFD formation, due to mtns and abutting other well-established cities.

Those companies branched into SD or moved to SD because there was land available for *new* headquarters (or bigger, newer digs avail for them) and, most importantly, they could get away with paying much less here for the same jobs.

Plain and simple.

[SK in CV]

[quote=bearishgurl]sdduuuude, McBride’s graph is for SAAR (Scottsdale [AZ] Assn of Realtors), no?

Has there been more building going on in metro Phoenix in recent years than SD County? From his graph, it looks as though there has been.

I can’t understand that since the Phoenix metro area is grossly overbuilt.

[/quote]

Those are national numbers. 2012 was a bit under 400K units nationwide. (I’m not sure why the graph shows a rate of over 400K most every month.)

Believe it or not, homes are being built in Phx. It may have been grossly overbuilt 5 years ago, but prices rose pretty decently last year, and distressed sales of all kinds are on a sharp decline. There’s 700 condo units being built a few blocks away from me, and I have never seen a building go up faster. They’re working 7 days a week. Same developer just broke ground on another 400 units.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=SK in CV][quote=bearishgurl]sdduuuude, McBride’s graph is for SAAR (Scottsdale [AZ] Assn of Realtors), no?

Has there been more building going on in metro Phoenix in recent years than SD County? From his graph, it looks as though there has been.

I can’t understand that since the Phoenix metro area is grossly overbuilt.

[/quote]

Those are national numbers. 2012 was a bit under 400K units nationwide. (I’m not sure why the graph shows a rate of over 400K most every month.)

Believe it or not, homes are being built in Phx. It may have been grossly overbuilt 5 years ago, but prices rose pretty decently last year, and distressed sales of all kinds are on a sharp decline. There’s 700 condo units being built a few blocks away from me, and I have never seen a building go up faster. They’re working 7 days a week. Same developer just broke ground on another 400 units.[/quote]

SK, if there is enough “new household formation” in the PHX area to fill 1100 new units a few weeks/months from now, there must be a lot of companies moving in, no?

Where are all these new residents going to work? I say “new” because how many of the residents filling these *new* units do you think will actually be locals? I could see moving from an apt/condo to an SFR but why move to another apt?

Isn’t apt rent and even SFR rent pretty cheap (by SD stds) in PHX?

Maybe a waitress and a bellhop or two “telemarketers” can easily buy a home in PHX … I don’t know.

[Author]

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