San Diego Inventory Sucks…

[spdrun]

I tried to put another on a 1/1 in MM recently that was asking around $135k.,..full price cash offer just for kicks…It would have just been so-so as an investment, but what the hell I thought. I think my offer went in day after it was listed or close to that. Anyway, ended up I was the 6th offer…..and that was even before any showing or the open house that was being done that weekend…Yup… Didn’t get a counter or anything (not that I would have entertained any counter above asking there)…

Patience … a lot of games are being played these days. I put an offer on a 1/1 two months ago, 10% below ask. Broker said I had no chance on getting it accepted at below ask. Two weeks ago, I got a call, and it’s now been submitted to the bank for SS approval.

Just because some people throw a cash offers out there doesn’t mean they can (or are even willing) to perform. Quite a few people are putting 10 offers on different short-sold places seeing which one actually gets approved by the bank.

[Coronita]

[quote=spdrun]

I tried to put another on a 1/1 in MM recently that was asking around $135k.,..full price cash offer just for kicks…It would have just been so-so as an investment, but what the hell I thought. I think my offer went in day after it was listed or close to that. Anyway, ended up I was the 6th offer…..and that was even before any showing or the open house that was being done that weekend…Yup… Didn’t get a counter or anything (not that I would have entertained any counter above asking there)…

Patience … a lot of games are being played these days. I put an offer on a 1/1 two months ago, 10% below ask. Broker said I had no chance on getting it accepted at below ask. Two weeks ago, I got a call, and it’s now been submitted to the bank for SS approval.

Just because some people throw a cash offers out there doesn’t mean they can (or are even willing) to perform. Quite a few people are putting 10 offers on different short-sold places seeing which one actually gets approved by the bank.[/quote]

No hurry at all. But the place wasn’t a short sale fwiw… It was a traditional sales.

[ocrenter]

[quote=flu]

Only if you don’t mind the high voltage power lines running along parts of the new tract…. Yeah, I’m trying to figure that one out… If I’m gonna be spending $2million on a custom home, those power lines better not be visible…..

The 28 custom homes will be built by pardee I think BTW….

http://www.altadelmar.com/lib/pdf/CommunityMap.pdf%5B/quote%5D

maybe Pardee might be willing to bury the high voltage lines as part of the $2 million per lot cost… or may be not…

[outtamojo]

What chance does anyone have when things never make it to the open market?

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-120059730-92078
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-120059768-1277_Highbluff_Ave_San_Marcos_CA_92078

[spdrun]

^^^

Look for a crooked broker?

[an]

[quote=spdrun]

I tried to put another on a 1/1 in MM recently that was asking around $135k.,..full price cash offer just for kicks…It would have just been so-so as an investment, but what the hell I thought. I think my offer went in day after it was listed or close to that. Anyway, ended up I was the 6th offer…..and that was even before any showing or the open house that was being done that weekend…Yup… Didn’t get a counter or anything (not that I would have entertained any counter above asking there)…

Patience … a lot of games are being played these days. I put an offer on a 1/1 two months ago, 10% below ask. Broker said I had no chance on getting it accepted at below ask. Two weeks ago, I got a call, and it’s now been submitted to the bank for SS approval.

Just because some people throw a cash offers out there doesn’t mean they can (or are even willing) to perform. Quite a few people are putting 10 offers on different short-sold places seeing which one actually gets approved by the bank.[/quote]
10% below ask doesn’t say anything. Maybe asking price was too high. What are the comps? Is it also 10% higher than your accepted offer? Also, just because the seller of a SS accepted your offer doesn’t mean the bank will. Unless you mean they already did their BPO and the bank accepted your 10% below list (assuming list is equal to comps) offer.

I’ve competed with cash offers on SS before and they all have performed. But that’s just my small sample space.

[an]

[quote=AN]The inventory # seems to keep on getting worse by the day. Currently, there’s only 19 active SFR and 8 Condo/TH for sale in my area. That’s tiny for an area over over 70k people.[/quote]
After just 1 day, now we have 15 active SFR and 9 Condo/TH. That’s ridiculous.

[spdrun]

Comps in the last year seem to be within +/- 10% of my offer. Some sold at the price that was the full ask, some sold 10% below my offer price. Bit of a crap shoot.

No idea what the bank will do with the offer, but it’s nice to see some action from the seller at least. If this doesn’t work out, there are plenty of foreclosures/shorts in the Northeast right now that pay 8-9% cap, so I’m not worried.

[an]

[quote=spdrun]Comps in the last year seem to be within +/- 10% of my offer. Some sold at the price that was the full ask, some sold 10% below my offer price. Bit of a crap shoot.

No idea what the bank will do with the offer, but it’s nice to see some action from the seller at least. If this doesn’t work out, there are plenty of foreclosures/shorts in the Northeast right now that pay 8-9% cap, so I’m not worried.[/quote]
OK, so 10% below list puts your right in the middle of comp. So, in essence, the listing was just on the high side. Good luck to you on the offer. I’ve got SS offer accepted below asking before, only to get the bank doing their BPO then saying no.

[spdrun]

At this point, I don’t care either way.

Plenty of inventory ripe for the picking where I am, and a change of appreciation/lower inventory in 6-12 months as people affected by Sandy get back on their feet.

[Coronita]

I think people (with funds to invest) are looking for better returns, and with your traditonal “safe” investment being pidly 1,2,3%…People are just itching to take on slightly more risk for slightly more return.

And for that, some people think it’s RE..

For most people, putting money into the stock market is still to risky and volatile and while we were seeing decent returns this year on boring indexes (11-13% ), it’s not something that necessarily is sustainable each year…

So I don’t see this changing…People are saying once rates go up on mortgages, home prices will crater. I’m not so sure…So many factors….My gut tells me it depends on how RE performs relative to other things… For instance, if the equity markets tank, people will probably still be looking at RE as good bet. Risk/return for most people on stock market is still too high I think…

[Coronita]

Also, what I’m more interested in is what the more financially well-to-do baby-boomer and generation right before them are gonna do now that they are close to retirement if not already retired… Because there’s a lot of them….

Seems like they have more financial resources at their disposable (at least the the early baby-boomers) and will have a decision on either sticking things in cash or cash equivalent ( or sticking into something very volatile like the stock market and possibly (maybe) getting a reasonable return or purchasing RE which I think is somewhere is in between….

If I was a baby boomer retiring, I’d do the cash + buying property thing. Stock market, I wouldn’t want to risk waiting another 10-20 years in case I entered at the wrong time… And sticking everything completely in cash, I wouldn’t want to get eaten alive with inflation.

So i was thinking..*maybe* that’s one the reasons why some folks will still spent $150k in cash on a 1/1 that rents for $1200/month with a $300/month HOA.. Still comes out around 6% I think…. assuming full occupancy which is probably doable in MM given there’s plenty of tech geeks to rent it to)…

(Personally, I wouldn’t because I think I can take on more risk elswhere since I have more time to recover if I fvck up.)

Then again WTF do I know….

Damn baby boomers….They get to enjoy all their entitlement benefits that I have to pay for… I won’t ever get the same entitlement benefits when I retire because they will have long run out… And now, on the investment property scene, I have to use my hard earned post-tax dollars (then ones that I didn’t already give to fund their entitlement benefits) to compete for the right to give some stranger a place to live!

[livinincali]

[quote=flu]I think people (with funds to invest) are looking for better returns, and with your traditonal “safe” investment being pidly 1,2,3%…People are just itching to take on slightly more risk for slightly more return.

And for that, some people think it’s RE..

For most people, putting money into the stock market is still to risky and volatile and while we were seeing decent returns this year on boring indexes (11-13% ), it’s not something that necessarily is sustainable each year…

So I don’t see this changing…People are saying once rates go up on mortgages, home prices will crater. I’m not so sure…So many factors….My gut tells me it depends on how RE performs relative to other things… For instance, if the equity markets tank, people will probably still be looking at RE as good bet. Risk/return for most people on stock market is still too high I think…[/quote]

It’s pretty obvious that single family housing is becoming a target for investment by non-traditional sources. The two biggest issues I see with that is #1 they don’t really want to be there. They’d much rather have a nice safe CD or Bonds that yields 5% but since they can’t find that return they are being forced into what is perceived to be a safe yield investment in RE. Is is safe to assume vacancy will remain low and rents will remain sticky? Probably but who knows.

The second is they lack experience being landlords. They think I’ll get a management company and collect checks in the mail every month. The problem is that landlording tends to be more complicated than that and involves actual work. Getting a 8-9% cap rate requires you to do some work to earn it.

I think the biggest key for the long term appreciation in housing is the wherewithal of all these freshly minted real estate investors. Will they stick it out until their tenants can afford to buy them out at a profit, or will they grow frustrated and liquidate.

[spdrun]

Speaking for myself, if I could make a profit selling to my tenants, I could also refi and buy more property.

Predictible income by being a rentier rocks the socks off of holding cash.

[Coronita]

[quote=livinincali]
It’s pretty obvious that single family housing is becoming a target for investment by non-traditional sources. The two biggest issues I see with that is #1 they don’t really want to be there. They’d much rather have a nice safe CD or Bonds that yields 5% but since they can’t find that return they are being forced into what is perceived to be a safe yield investment in RE. Is is safe to assume vacancy will remain low and rents will remain sticky? Probably but who knows.

The second is they lack experience being landlords. They think I’ll get a management company and collect checks in the mail every month. The problem is that landlording tends to be more complicated than that and involves actual work. Getting a 8-9% cap rate requires you to do some work to earn it.

I think the biggest key for the long term appreciation in housing is the wherewithal of all these freshly minted real estate investors. Will they stick it out until their tenants can afford to buy them out at a profit, or will they grow frustrated and liquidate.[/quote]

I agree with you here. I think some people would rather have the 5% or so bond yields and without that, I think a lot of these people buying RE might be underestimating risk and future opportunity cost. Property (short the flipping mentality) is suppose to be a long term thing anyway. But as long as people can’t do better elsewhere, I think people will just put up with it….

Rent will probably stay sticky (provided we don’t end up like Detroit) as long we have a lot of cash-poor people and getting financing for those cash-poor people is difficult…What choice do they have? Me thinks we have a lot of cash-poor people.

[Author]

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