sales figures vs prices

[cashman]

I think what kev374 is trying to say, and I echo it, is that for a year and a half now we have been reading here on Piggington how the declines are just a few months away, be patient. The advice never changes, it’s always “just around the corner” or we’re at the “tipping point”. I guess some of us are just simply getting frustrated at the slowness of this cycle. Especially if you’re in good area where prices have barely budged, like myself. I’ve spent about 50K on rent so far, with no end in sight. I’m beginning to wonder how much money I have actually saved if prices don’t start to decline soon. If this goes on for a few more years at this pace, which seems likely, there will eventually be a point where the rent spent will be more than any savings from a price decline.

[cashman]

I think what kev374 is trying to say, and I echo it, is that for a year and a half now we have been reading here on Piggington how the declines are just a few months away, be patient. The advice never changes, it’s always “just around the corner” or we’re at the “tipping point”. I guess some of us are just simply getting frustrated at the slowness of this cycle. Especially if you’re in good area where prices have barely budged, like myself. I’ve spent about 50K on rent so far, with no end in sight. I’m beginning to wonder how much money I have actually saved if prices don’t start to decline soon. If this goes on for a few more years at this pace, which seems likely, there will eventually be a point where the rent spent will be more than any savings from a price decline.

[HLS]

Cashman: What area you in ?

What price home are you looking to buy ?
You see no decline in your area ? You cannot get more house for the same money compared to a year ago ?

[HLS]

Cashman: What area you in ?

What price home are you looking to buy ?
You see no decline in your area ? You cannot get more house for the same money compared to a year ago ?

[stansd]

Cashman,

Please post your current rent along with the purchase price of a comparable house. Then take that purchase price * 8% to get approximate annual mortgage payment. We’ll assume your interest savings and equity paydown roughly pay for property tax, mello Roos or HOA, incremental insurance, repairs, and upkeep, and that the market will be flat for the next couple of years.

My Rent is 1,895/Mo or 23K/Year. The house I live in is worth 500K, so I’m saving somewhere around 17K/year by renting.

My bet is that your math is similar.

Stan

[stansd]

Cashman,

Please post your current rent along with the purchase price of a comparable house. Then take that purchase price * 8% to get approximate annual mortgage payment. We’ll assume your interest savings and equity paydown roughly pay for property tax, mello Roos or HOA, incremental insurance, repairs, and upkeep, and that the market will be flat for the next couple of years.

My Rent is 1,895/Mo or 23K/Year. The house I live in is worth 500K, so I’m saving somewhere around 17K/year by renting.

My bet is that your math is similar.

Stan

[temeculaguy]

Cashman, don’t get frustrated, it really is around the corner. Based on where you want to live and the price point you can almost guess when it will hit. It is not a tornado that just hits a few spots, it is more like a hurricane and as you see it get closer you can guess when it will hit. A year ago there weren’t many examples bt a lot of good guesses around here. Those guesses were right and the outlying areas like Temecula, El Cajon and Chula Vista are showing some serious declines, next stop will be the mid to low range stuff in the city, the 78 corridor and the more speculative or recently built areas. Then the higher end recently built stuff and lastly will be coastal and high end established neighborhoods with good schools. Based on what you want it may be tomorrow, December, middle of 2008 or 2009. If you want an oompa loompa you may have to wait until the end of the tour.

[temeculaguy]

Cashman, don’t get frustrated, it really is around the corner. Based on where you want to live and the price point you can almost guess when it will hit. It is not a tornado that just hits a few spots, it is more like a hurricane and as you see it get closer you can guess when it will hit. A year ago there weren’t many examples bt a lot of good guesses around here. Those guesses were right and the outlying areas like Temecula, El Cajon and Chula Vista are showing some serious declines, next stop will be the mid to low range stuff in the city, the 78 corridor and the more speculative or recently built areas. Then the higher end recently built stuff and lastly will be coastal and high end established neighborhoods with good schools. Based on what you want it may be tomorrow, December, middle of 2008 or 2009. If you want an oompa loompa you may have to wait until the end of the tour.

[temeculaguy]

Just saw the UTC condo conversion thread was just updated again, down 25% or 100k from when the thread was started over a year ago by someone frustrated the prices weren’t coming down. See the train has pulled into the nicer area condo conversions, next stop mid level SFR’s, all aboard.

[temeculaguy]

Just saw the UTC condo conversion thread was just updated again, down 25% or 100k from when the thread was started over a year ago by someone frustrated the prices weren’t coming down. See the train has pulled into the nicer area condo conversions, next stop mid level SFR’s, all aboard.

[j]

My girlfriend works at a bank, and she burst through the door today saying I was right about housing. She said that several people raided their savings accounts to make their house payments. Looks like the refi window has closed for many people in the Point Loma area, and they won’t be able to make their payments in a month or two.

[j]

My girlfriend works at a bank, and she burst through the door today saying I was right about housing. She said that several people raided their savings accounts to make their house payments. Looks like the refi window has closed for many people in the Point Loma area, and they won’t be able to make their payments in a month or two.

[34f3f3f]

I have been on an Italian bog, and my research led me to a surprising fact. During the last housing trough in Italy (early 90’s me thinks), the effects were not felt as much as other countries, because the Italians refused to accept their homes were being de-valued and held out without putting them on the market. I guess it was spaghetti every night for some, but it seems to have paid off …for a few at least. I’m sure the situation was different, and ARMs etc probably weren’t around to play their part. It just seems a little of that going here on at the moment, although I ‘m not sure Californians will put up with spicy meat balls every night for the next however many years.

[34f3f3f]

I have been on an Italian bog, and my research led me to a surprising fact. During the last housing trough in Italy (early 90’s me thinks), the effects were not felt as much as other countries, because the Italians refused to accept their homes were being de-valued and held out without putting them on the market. I guess it was spaghetti every night for some, but it seems to have paid off …for a few at least. I’m sure the situation was different, and ARMs etc probably weren’t around to play their part. It just seems a little of that going here on at the moment, although I ‘m not sure Californians will put up with spicy meat balls every night for the next however many years.

[Bugs]

Cashman,

We’ve said many times that LA County isn’t on the same clock as San Diego is. We are not part of your region, except by connection via Riverside County.

You should be seeing the wave coming towards your area from the east. Its going to take awhile and I still wouldn’t say it’s just around the corner.

And when that wave does come to town it’s not going to produce 20% decreases in a year nor is it going to be finished in 18 months; it’s going to be more like 10% -12% a year for several years.

[Author]

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