sales figures vs prices

[kev374]

For several months now we have heard again and again how miserable sales have been. Today the report is that sales are down YOY 26% in OC. However, I still see prices in the stratosphere with no sign that they are coming down. Median is still flat at around $630-640k mark which is what it was last year. What do you think needs to happen that will trigger a sustained price decline?

[GoUSC]

As stated before, prices are very very sticky on the way down. It will take some time (6+ months…although December should be interesting) before you start really seeing the pricing come down. This down-cycle is really going to hurt methinks.

FYI I am seeing the same thing in central parts of San Diego.

[GoUSC]

As stated before, prices are very very sticky on the way down. It will take some time (6+ months…although December should be interesting) before you start really seeing the pricing come down. This down-cycle is really going to hurt methinks.

FYI I am seeing the same thing in central parts of San Diego.

[HLS]

Following the MEDIAN price means absolutely nothing as an indication of market direction.

The market didn’t rise overnight, it’s not going to fall overnight either.

Some people are bleeding cash or wiping out their retirement accounts to keep making payments, in the hopes that the decline will stop. Nobody can bleed forever.

As actual sales do go lower, that becomes a current comp value for appraising the next one.
When someone “agrees” to pay $650K but the appraiser only values it at $620K, sellers start realizing their options a bit clearer. The deal is dead. Buyers get scared away.

Several sales will affect the values of hundreds of other homes in the area. It’s a spiraling downward slow painful (for some) descent.

The psychological effect kicks in when people start realizing that they owe more than their home is worth.
That has a more sobering effect than knowing you could rent a property for 50%-60% of what you pay to own it, but it all adds in to the equation until the bottom.

Nobody knows where/when the bottom will be.
That’s the fun part!

Don’t be influenced by the median!!!
It’s explained why on a different thread.

[HLS]

Following the MEDIAN price means absolutely nothing as an indication of market direction.

The market didn’t rise overnight, it’s not going to fall overnight either.

Some people are bleeding cash or wiping out their retirement accounts to keep making payments, in the hopes that the decline will stop. Nobody can bleed forever.

As actual sales do go lower, that becomes a current comp value for appraising the next one.
When someone “agrees” to pay $650K but the appraiser only values it at $620K, sellers start realizing their options a bit clearer. The deal is dead. Buyers get scared away.

Several sales will affect the values of hundreds of other homes in the area. It’s a spiraling downward slow painful (for some) descent.

The psychological effect kicks in when people start realizing that they owe more than their home is worth.
That has a more sobering effect than knowing you could rent a property for 50%-60% of what you pay to own it, but it all adds in to the equation until the bottom.

Nobody knows where/when the bottom will be.
That’s the fun part!

Don’t be influenced by the median!!!
It’s explained why on a different thread.

[temeculaguy]

The answer to what will trigger a decline in prices is “time.”

Daily news stories about how bad things are, brown lawns while driving around, weak sales, builders losing money, it will add up over time. Buyers can hold out and have a lot readlily available advice to do so. Builders, forclosures, arm resets and people falling behind no longer have that luxury, they see time as working against them. Patience young Jedi, Patience.

[temeculaguy]

The answer to what will trigger a decline in prices is “time.”

Daily news stories about how bad things are, brown lawns while driving around, weak sales, builders losing money, it will add up over time. Buyers can hold out and have a lot readlily available advice to do so. Builders, forclosures, arm resets and people falling behind no longer have that luxury, they see time as working against them. Patience young Jedi, Patience.

[Arraya]

No sign! Got to Irvine Housing Blog. I’m seing 10-15% off peak prices left and right. And that is in Irvine! I don’t care what the median says I can see it with my own eyes. The median will fall!

[Arraya]

No sign! Got to Irvine Housing Blog. I’m seing 10-15% off peak prices left and right. And that is in Irvine! I don’t care what the median says I can see it with my own eyes. The median will fall!

[HLS]

MEDIAN does not have to fall !!
It is possible that the market can plummet and the median could stay the same.
You will get much more for your money though.

Don’t you understand that it is a meaningless comparison ????
Apparently you’re tricked JUST LIKE THEY WANT YOU TO BE.

[HLS]

MEDIAN does not have to fall !!
It is possible that the market can plummet and the median could stay the same.
You will get much more for your money though.

Don’t you understand that it is a meaningless comparison ????
Apparently you’re tricked JUST LIKE THEY WANT YOU TO BE.

[Bugs]

At best, the median is a lagging indicator during a dynamic market. By the time the median starts racking up big decreases the market might actually be turning around in some areas in preparation for the next cycle.

On a house-to-house basis most of the market segments in SoCal are showing declines at this point.

[Bugs]

At best, the median is a lagging indicator during a dynamic market. By the time the median starts racking up big decreases the market might actually be turning around in some areas in preparation for the next cycle.

On a house-to-house basis most of the market segments in SoCal are showing declines at this point.

[Arraya]

I get it, I get it! I understand how the median is worthless. However, I expect it to fall as well.

You are preaching to the choir!

[Arraya]

I get it, I get it! I understand how the median is worthless. However, I expect it to fall as well.

You are preaching to the choir!

[Author]

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