Sabre Springs vs Scripps Ranch schools

[ocrenter]

right, 30-somethings can’t afford scripps now. but they were able to before the bubble.

Scripps Ranch Village development in the 90’s to early 2000 added 4-5000 housing units to SR, assuming mostly 30-40-somethings purchasing at that time, that would explain why the 40-59 age bracket is so strong in SR now.

the question is where is this 40-59 bracket going? majority of them have the equity and would not need to sell. some of them would consider downgrading if the price is right, but I don’t believe we will see enough 30-somethings (even when they become 40-somethings) have enough earning power or down payment to satisfy this current 40-59 bracket’s asking price. the end result is these 40-59 group will just stay put and not move.

with no new housing stock within the SRHS draw area, you will see the decline in native Scripps student population when this current batch (from Scripps Ranch Village era) move thru the system.

[Eugene]

30-somethings were briefly able to afford Scripps in the 90’s, helped by the fact that housing was seriously depressed. Similar to the way how 30-somethings are able to afford San Elijo Hills today. Also that was before API scores (which were introduced in 1999, I think?) Median house price in Scripps in 1997 was in mid-200’s. Those prices aren’t coming back.

There are 80 or so large high schools in the county. Of these, SRHS is currently #8 by test scores. That should create enough of a drive to keep prices high. Many original owners are sitting on 400-500k of equity by now, it’ll be 600-700k ten years from now … faced with a choice to keep maintaining a big expensive 4br occupied by two people, or moving into a condo in Del Mar, many will cash out and move.

[Eugene]

30-somethings were briefly able to afford Scripps in the 90’s, helped by the fact that housing was seriously depressed. Similar to the way how 30-somethings are able to afford San Elijo Hills today. Also that was before API scores (which were introduced in 1999, I think?) Median house price in Scripps in 1997 was in mid-200’s. Those prices aren’t coming back.

There are 80 or so large high schools in the county. Of these, SRHS is currently #8 by test scores. That should create enough of a drive to keep prices high. Many original owners are sitting on 400-500k of equity by now, it’ll be 600-700k ten years from now … faced with a choice to keep maintaining a big expensive 4br occupied by two people, or moving into a condo in Del Mar, many will cash out and move.

[Eugene]

30-somethings were briefly able to afford Scripps in the 90’s, helped by the fact that housing was seriously depressed. Similar to the way how 30-somethings are able to afford San Elijo Hills today. Also that was before API scores (which were introduced in 1999, I think?) Median house price in Scripps in 1997 was in mid-200’s. Those prices aren’t coming back.

There are 80 or so large high schools in the county. Of these, SRHS is currently #8 by test scores. That should create enough of a drive to keep prices high. Many original owners are sitting on 400-500k of equity by now, it’ll be 600-700k ten years from now … faced with a choice to keep maintaining a big expensive 4br occupied by two people, or moving into a condo in Del Mar, many will cash out and move.

[Eugene]

30-somethings were briefly able to afford Scripps in the 90’s, helped by the fact that housing was seriously depressed. Similar to the way how 30-somethings are able to afford San Elijo Hills today. Also that was before API scores (which were introduced in 1999, I think?) Median house price in Scripps in 1997 was in mid-200’s. Those prices aren’t coming back.

There are 80 or so large high schools in the county. Of these, SRHS is currently #8 by test scores. That should create enough of a drive to keep prices high. Many original owners are sitting on 400-500k of equity by now, it’ll be 600-700k ten years from now … faced with a choice to keep maintaining a big expensive 4br occupied by two people, or moving into a condo in Del Mar, many will cash out and move.

[Eugene]

30-somethings were briefly able to afford Scripps in the 90’s, helped by the fact that housing was seriously depressed. Similar to the way how 30-somethings are able to afford San Elijo Hills today. Also that was before API scores (which were introduced in 1999, I think?) Median house price in Scripps in 1997 was in mid-200’s. Those prices aren’t coming back.

There are 80 or so large high schools in the county. Of these, SRHS is currently #8 by test scores. That should create enough of a drive to keep prices high. Many original owners are sitting on 400-500k of equity by now, it’ll be 600-700k ten years from now … faced with a choice to keep maintaining a big expensive 4br occupied by two people, or moving into a condo in Del Mar, many will cash out and move.

[ocrenter]

[quote=Eugene]There are 80 or so large high schools in the county. Of these, SRHS is currently #8 by test scores. That should create enough of a drive to keep prices high. Many original owners are sitting on 400-500k of equity by now, it’ll be 600-700k ten years from now … faced with a choice to keep maintaining a big expensive 4br occupied by two people, or moving into a condo in Del Mar, many will cash out and move.[/quote]

the prices in Scripps proper will likely remain out of reach due to both the schools as well as the folks with equity that don’t want to “give it away.”

you think these folks would cash out and move. my problem with that theory is you can’t find enough new families that can afford their price. therefore these folks end up staying put.

remember, there’s a lot of newer and nicer homes in PUSD nearby that are enticing well to do 30-40 somethings of today. faced with established Scripps homeowners that won’t “give it away,” they’ll just pick PUSD locations that have more distress and therefore better bargains.

[ocrenter]

[quote=Eugene]There are 80 or so large high schools in the county. Of these, SRHS is currently #8 by test scores. That should create enough of a drive to keep prices high. Many original owners are sitting on 400-500k of equity by now, it’ll be 600-700k ten years from now … faced with a choice to keep maintaining a big expensive 4br occupied by two people, or moving into a condo in Del Mar, many will cash out and move.[/quote]

the prices in Scripps proper will likely remain out of reach due to both the schools as well as the folks with equity that don’t want to “give it away.”

you think these folks would cash out and move. my problem with that theory is you can’t find enough new families that can afford their price. therefore these folks end up staying put.

remember, there’s a lot of newer and nicer homes in PUSD nearby that are enticing well to do 30-40 somethings of today. faced with established Scripps homeowners that won’t “give it away,” they’ll just pick PUSD locations that have more distress and therefore better bargains.

[ocrenter]

[quote=Eugene]There are 80 or so large high schools in the county. Of these, SRHS is currently #8 by test scores. That should create enough of a drive to keep prices high. Many original owners are sitting on 400-500k of equity by now, it’ll be 600-700k ten years from now … faced with a choice to keep maintaining a big expensive 4br occupied by two people, or moving into a condo in Del Mar, many will cash out and move.[/quote]

the prices in Scripps proper will likely remain out of reach due to both the schools as well as the folks with equity that don’t want to “give it away.”

you think these folks would cash out and move. my problem with that theory is you can’t find enough new families that can afford their price. therefore these folks end up staying put.

remember, there’s a lot of newer and nicer homes in PUSD nearby that are enticing well to do 30-40 somethings of today. faced with established Scripps homeowners that won’t “give it away,” they’ll just pick PUSD locations that have more distress and therefore better bargains.

[ocrenter]

[quote=Eugene]There are 80 or so large high schools in the county. Of these, SRHS is currently #8 by test scores. That should create enough of a drive to keep prices high. Many original owners are sitting on 400-500k of equity by now, it’ll be 600-700k ten years from now … faced with a choice to keep maintaining a big expensive 4br occupied by two people, or moving into a condo in Del Mar, many will cash out and move.[/quote]

the prices in Scripps proper will likely remain out of reach due to both the schools as well as the folks with equity that don’t want to “give it away.”

you think these folks would cash out and move. my problem with that theory is you can’t find enough new families that can afford their price. therefore these folks end up staying put.

remember, there’s a lot of newer and nicer homes in PUSD nearby that are enticing well to do 30-40 somethings of today. faced with established Scripps homeowners that won’t “give it away,” they’ll just pick PUSD locations that have more distress and therefore better bargains.

[ocrenter]

[quote=Eugene]There are 80 or so large high schools in the county. Of these, SRHS is currently #8 by test scores. That should create enough of a drive to keep prices high. Many original owners are sitting on 400-500k of equity by now, it’ll be 600-700k ten years from now … faced with a choice to keep maintaining a big expensive 4br occupied by two people, or moving into a condo in Del Mar, many will cash out and move.[/quote]

the prices in Scripps proper will likely remain out of reach due to both the schools as well as the folks with equity that don’t want to “give it away.”

you think these folks would cash out and move. my problem with that theory is you can’t find enough new families that can afford their price. therefore these folks end up staying put.

remember, there’s a lot of newer and nicer homes in PUSD nearby that are enticing well to do 30-40 somethings of today. faced with established Scripps homeowners that won’t “give it away,” they’ll just pick PUSD locations that have more distress and therefore better bargains.

[asragov]

Very unscientifically, SRHS seems to have more students going to very competitive colleges than Mt. Carmel. The API at SRHS may be pulled down by the buses, but the higher end of achievement at SRHS seems to be higher. Again, this is totally anecdotally based. It is amazing how many of these private schools are cheaper than sending children to public universities (assuming that they can get in), such as:

http://www.yale.edu/admit/freshmen/financial_aid/yale_cuts_costs.html

[asragov]

Very unscientifically, SRHS seems to have more students going to very competitive colleges than Mt. Carmel. The API at SRHS may be pulled down by the buses, but the higher end of achievement at SRHS seems to be higher. Again, this is totally anecdotally based. It is amazing how many of these private schools are cheaper than sending children to public universities (assuming that they can get in), such as:

http://www.yale.edu/admit/freshmen/financial_aid/yale_cuts_costs.html

[asragov]

Very unscientifically, SRHS seems to have more students going to very competitive colleges than Mt. Carmel. The API at SRHS may be pulled down by the buses, but the higher end of achievement at SRHS seems to be higher. Again, this is totally anecdotally based. It is amazing how many of these private schools are cheaper than sending children to public universities (assuming that they can get in), such as:

http://www.yale.edu/admit/freshmen/financial_aid/yale_cuts_costs.html

[asragov]

Very unscientifically, SRHS seems to have more students going to very competitive colleges than Mt. Carmel. The API at SRHS may be pulled down by the buses, but the higher end of achievement at SRHS seems to be higher. Again, this is totally anecdotally based. It is amazing how many of these private schools are cheaper than sending children to public universities (assuming that they can get in), such as:

http://www.yale.edu/admit/freshmen/financial_aid/yale_cuts_costs.html

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