Sabre Springs vs Scripps Ranch schools

[gn]

[quote=UCGal]The teachers there may do a fine job of differentiation, etc… and not want the hassles.

The budget allotment is NOT a motivating factor for schools to have a GATE program.[/quote]

UCGal, can you elaborate on the 2 points you made above ?

[ocrenter]

the data is interesting.

if you add up students from all of the feeder elementaries, every grade average about 500 students. the middle school is averaging around 500 students per grade as well. that is very consistent at every grade level.

but once you go to Scripps High, suddenly in 9th grade there’s 200 additional kids for a total of over 700 students.

so we know SDUSD is busing in close to 30% of the high school freshman class.

now let’s look at the demographic numbers.

the bulk of Scripps’ population is between 40-60, that population is 12,000 strong. you figure this is also the population that is supplying most of the kids in school.

there’s a sharp drop off in population from 6500 40-50 year olds to 3000 30-40 year olds in Scripps Ranch.

that’s a greater than 50% drop off in population.

so if Scripps Ranch as a community is not replenishing its reproductive population, then the future is a school filled with 50% bused student base.

give it 10-15 years and pull this post up, you’ll see.

[ocrenter]

the data is interesting.

if you add up students from all of the feeder elementaries, every grade average about 500 students. the middle school is averaging around 500 students per grade as well. that is very consistent at every grade level.

but once you go to Scripps High, suddenly in 9th grade there’s 200 additional kids for a total of over 700 students.

so we know SDUSD is busing in close to 30% of the high school freshman class.

now let’s look at the demographic numbers.

the bulk of Scripps’ population is between 40-60, that population is 12,000 strong. you figure this is also the population that is supplying most of the kids in school.

there’s a sharp drop off in population from 6500 40-50 year olds to 3000 30-40 year olds in Scripps Ranch.

that’s a greater than 50% drop off in population.

so if Scripps Ranch as a community is not replenishing its reproductive population, then the future is a school filled with 50% bused student base.

give it 10-15 years and pull this post up, you’ll see.

[ocrenter]

the data is interesting.

if you add up students from all of the feeder elementaries, every grade average about 500 students. the middle school is averaging around 500 students per grade as well. that is very consistent at every grade level.

but once you go to Scripps High, suddenly in 9th grade there’s 200 additional kids for a total of over 700 students.

so we know SDUSD is busing in close to 30% of the high school freshman class.

now let’s look at the demographic numbers.

the bulk of Scripps’ population is between 40-60, that population is 12,000 strong. you figure this is also the population that is supplying most of the kids in school.

there’s a sharp drop off in population from 6500 40-50 year olds to 3000 30-40 year olds in Scripps Ranch.

that’s a greater than 50% drop off in population.

so if Scripps Ranch as a community is not replenishing its reproductive population, then the future is a school filled with 50% bused student base.

give it 10-15 years and pull this post up, you’ll see.

[ocrenter]

the data is interesting.

if you add up students from all of the feeder elementaries, every grade average about 500 students. the middle school is averaging around 500 students per grade as well. that is very consistent at every grade level.

but once you go to Scripps High, suddenly in 9th grade there’s 200 additional kids for a total of over 700 students.

so we know SDUSD is busing in close to 30% of the high school freshman class.

now let’s look at the demographic numbers.

the bulk of Scripps’ population is between 40-60, that population is 12,000 strong. you figure this is also the population that is supplying most of the kids in school.

there’s a sharp drop off in population from 6500 40-50 year olds to 3000 30-40 year olds in Scripps Ranch.

that’s a greater than 50% drop off in population.

so if Scripps Ranch as a community is not replenishing its reproductive population, then the future is a school filled with 50% bused student base.

give it 10-15 years and pull this post up, you’ll see.

[ocrenter]

the data is interesting.

if you add up students from all of the feeder elementaries, every grade average about 500 students. the middle school is averaging around 500 students per grade as well. that is very consistent at every grade level.

but once you go to Scripps High, suddenly in 9th grade there’s 200 additional kids for a total of over 700 students.

so we know SDUSD is busing in close to 30% of the high school freshman class.

now let’s look at the demographic numbers.

the bulk of Scripps’ population is between 40-60, that population is 12,000 strong. you figure this is also the population that is supplying most of the kids in school.

there’s a sharp drop off in population from 6500 40-50 year olds to 3000 30-40 year olds in Scripps Ranch.

that’s a greater than 50% drop off in population.

so if Scripps Ranch as a community is not replenishing its reproductive population, then the future is a school filled with 50% bused student base.

give it 10-15 years and pull this post up, you’ll see.

[Eugene]

[quote]there’s a sharp drop off in population from 6500 40-50 year olds to 3000 30-40 year olds in Scripps Ranch.

that’s a greater than 50% drop off in population. [/quote]

That’s in large part because it’s hard for most 30 year olds to afford a house in Scripps Ranch (even if they want to live their to begin with). It’s a “move up” neighborhood. The pattern is exactly the same in PQ, Poway, Carmel Valley.

Where are all the 30 year olds? Mira Mesa, Clairemont, Mission Valley, University City.

IIRC, median first-time homebuyer age is low 30’s. Median woman’s age at first childbirth is also pushing 30 (especially among college-educated women, typical in Scripps Ranch), second child occurs closer to 35, fathers are even older … by the time children are in high school, parents are usually in the 45-50 bracket.

To prove the “inevitable decline of SRHS” hypothesis, we really need to demonstrate that there’s an insufficient inflow of new families with children to replace children of current residents who grow up and leave.

[Eugene]

[quote]there’s a sharp drop off in population from 6500 40-50 year olds to 3000 30-40 year olds in Scripps Ranch.

that’s a greater than 50% drop off in population. [/quote]

That’s in large part because it’s hard for most 30 year olds to afford a house in Scripps Ranch (even if they want to live their to begin with). It’s a “move up” neighborhood. The pattern is exactly the same in PQ, Poway, Carmel Valley.

Where are all the 30 year olds? Mira Mesa, Clairemont, Mission Valley, University City.

IIRC, median first-time homebuyer age is low 30’s. Median woman’s age at first childbirth is also pushing 30 (especially among college-educated women, typical in Scripps Ranch), second child occurs closer to 35, fathers are even older … by the time children are in high school, parents are usually in the 45-50 bracket.

To prove the “inevitable decline of SRHS” hypothesis, we really need to demonstrate that there’s an insufficient inflow of new families with children to replace children of current residents who grow up and leave.

[Eugene]

[quote]there’s a sharp drop off in population from 6500 40-50 year olds to 3000 30-40 year olds in Scripps Ranch.

that’s a greater than 50% drop off in population. [/quote]

That’s in large part because it’s hard for most 30 year olds to afford a house in Scripps Ranch (even if they want to live their to begin with). It’s a “move up” neighborhood. The pattern is exactly the same in PQ, Poway, Carmel Valley.

Where are all the 30 year olds? Mira Mesa, Clairemont, Mission Valley, University City.

IIRC, median first-time homebuyer age is low 30’s. Median woman’s age at first childbirth is also pushing 30 (especially among college-educated women, typical in Scripps Ranch), second child occurs closer to 35, fathers are even older … by the time children are in high school, parents are usually in the 45-50 bracket.

To prove the “inevitable decline of SRHS” hypothesis, we really need to demonstrate that there’s an insufficient inflow of new families with children to replace children of current residents who grow up and leave.

[Eugene]

[quote]there’s a sharp drop off in population from 6500 40-50 year olds to 3000 30-40 year olds in Scripps Ranch.

that’s a greater than 50% drop off in population. [/quote]

That’s in large part because it’s hard for most 30 year olds to afford a house in Scripps Ranch (even if they want to live their to begin with). It’s a “move up” neighborhood. The pattern is exactly the same in PQ, Poway, Carmel Valley.

Where are all the 30 year olds? Mira Mesa, Clairemont, Mission Valley, University City.

IIRC, median first-time homebuyer age is low 30’s. Median woman’s age at first childbirth is also pushing 30 (especially among college-educated women, typical in Scripps Ranch), second child occurs closer to 35, fathers are even older … by the time children are in high school, parents are usually in the 45-50 bracket.

To prove the “inevitable decline of SRHS” hypothesis, we really need to demonstrate that there’s an insufficient inflow of new families with children to replace children of current residents who grow up and leave.

[Eugene]

[quote]there’s a sharp drop off in population from 6500 40-50 year olds to 3000 30-40 year olds in Scripps Ranch.

that’s a greater than 50% drop off in population. [/quote]

That’s in large part because it’s hard for most 30 year olds to afford a house in Scripps Ranch (even if they want to live their to begin with). It’s a “move up” neighborhood. The pattern is exactly the same in PQ, Poway, Carmel Valley.

Where are all the 30 year olds? Mira Mesa, Clairemont, Mission Valley, University City.

IIRC, median first-time homebuyer age is low 30’s. Median woman’s age at first childbirth is also pushing 30 (especially among college-educated women, typical in Scripps Ranch), second child occurs closer to 35, fathers are even older … by the time children are in high school, parents are usually in the 45-50 bracket.

To prove the “inevitable decline of SRHS” hypothesis, we really need to demonstrate that there’s an insufficient inflow of new families with children to replace children of current residents who grow up and leave.

[ocrenter]

right, 30-somethings can’t afford scripps now. but they were able to before the bubble.

Scripps Ranch Village development in the 90’s to early 2000 added 4-5000 housing units to SR, assuming mostly 30-40-somethings purchasing at that time, that would explain why the 40-59 age bracket is so strong in SR now.

the question is where is this 40-59 bracket going? majority of them have the equity and would not need to sell. some of them would consider downgrading if the price is right, but I don’t believe we will see enough 30-somethings (even when they become 40-somethings) have enough earning power or down payment to satisfy this current 40-59 bracket’s asking price. the end result is these 40-59 group will just stay put and not move.

with no new housing stock within the SRHS draw area, you will see the decline in native Scripps student population when this current batch (from Scripps Ranch Village era) move thru the system.

[ocrenter]

right, 30-somethings can’t afford scripps now. but they were able to before the bubble.

Scripps Ranch Village development in the 90’s to early 2000 added 4-5000 housing units to SR, assuming mostly 30-40-somethings purchasing at that time, that would explain why the 40-59 age bracket is so strong in SR now.

the question is where is this 40-59 bracket going? majority of them have the equity and would not need to sell. some of them would consider downgrading if the price is right, but I don’t believe we will see enough 30-somethings (even when they become 40-somethings) have enough earning power or down payment to satisfy this current 40-59 bracket’s asking price. the end result is these 40-59 group will just stay put and not move.

with no new housing stock within the SRHS draw area, you will see the decline in native Scripps student population when this current batch (from Scripps Ranch Village era) move thru the system.

[ocrenter]

right, 30-somethings can’t afford scripps now. but they were able to before the bubble.

Scripps Ranch Village development in the 90’s to early 2000 added 4-5000 housing units to SR, assuming mostly 30-40-somethings purchasing at that time, that would explain why the 40-59 age bracket is so strong in SR now.

the question is where is this 40-59 bracket going? majority of them have the equity and would not need to sell. some of them would consider downgrading if the price is right, but I don’t believe we will see enough 30-somethings (even when they become 40-somethings) have enough earning power or down payment to satisfy this current 40-59 bracket’s asking price. the end result is these 40-59 group will just stay put and not move.

with no new housing stock within the SRHS draw area, you will see the decline in native Scripps student population when this current batch (from Scripps Ranch Village era) move thru the system.

[ocrenter]

right, 30-somethings can’t afford scripps now. but they were able to before the bubble.

Scripps Ranch Village development in the 90’s to early 2000 added 4-5000 housing units to SR, assuming mostly 30-40-somethings purchasing at that time, that would explain why the 40-59 age bracket is so strong in SR now.

the question is where is this 40-59 bracket going? majority of them have the equity and would not need to sell. some of them would consider downgrading if the price is right, but I don’t believe we will see enough 30-somethings (even when they become 40-somethings) have enough earning power or down payment to satisfy this current 40-59 bracket’s asking price. the end result is these 40-59 group will just stay put and not move.

with no new housing stock within the SRHS draw area, you will see the decline in native Scripps student population when this current batch (from Scripps Ranch Village era) move thru the system.

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