S&P500 dropping to 600 by spring 07

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Ironically when trying to call a bottom during a decline like this it becomes tough because the rules of the game are being re-written while it is being played. As a result many timing tools have been rendered worthless, the VIX to name one.

However, the one fundamental tool that has kept me out of trouble here has been watching the level of commercial buying or lack thereof. During the last decline that made the bottoms in 2002 and 2003, all one had to do was buy when the commercials began buying and they would have been in within a week of each of the major lows. It is exactly what I did. Recently during this whole decline the commercials have stayed solidly on the short side of the market, until this changes there is no reason to look at the long side in my opinion.

Commercials are hedgers by nature so usually they will be scale down buyers due to their basic function, which would normally reflect buying during moves like this. When they are selling it is an abnormal pattern which most often is very bearish. It is kind of an art reading this report and interpreting it and it is something I am constantly learning from even though I have watched it for many years.

With all that aside, I will not be looking for longs until the commercials show significant buying and there is no sign of that yet.

Guessing levels is tough but there does seem to be some confluence of things in the DOW 5500 area including elliott wave counts which I don’t use, and some valuation models. I don’t predict numbers that is for ego, I trade. However, those are numbers that if reached I might scale in buy without waiting for other things. I hope we don’t go that far. I would rather buy at higher prices than that if the conditions are right. Moving average crossovers like what was alluded to do not work, every study I have ever done or read about shows a net loss of money with those strategies so don’t use them.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Ironically when trying to call a bottom during a decline like this it becomes tough because the rules of the game are being re-written while it is being played. As a result many timing tools have been rendered worthless, the VIX to name one.

However, the one fundamental tool that has kept me out of trouble here has been watching the level of commercial buying or lack thereof. During the last decline that made the bottoms in 2002 and 2003, all one had to do was buy when the commercials began buying and they would have been in within a week of each of the major lows. It is exactly what I did. Recently during this whole decline the commercials have stayed solidly on the short side of the market, until this changes there is no reason to look at the long side in my opinion.

Commercials are hedgers by nature so usually they will be scale down buyers due to their basic function, which would normally reflect buying during moves like this. When they are selling it is an abnormal pattern which most often is very bearish. It is kind of an art reading this report and interpreting it and it is something I am constantly learning from even though I have watched it for many years.

With all that aside, I will not be looking for longs until the commercials show significant buying and there is no sign of that yet.

Guessing levels is tough but there does seem to be some confluence of things in the DOW 5500 area including elliott wave counts which I don’t use, and some valuation models. I don’t predict numbers that is for ego, I trade. However, those are numbers that if reached I might scale in buy without waiting for other things. I hope we don’t go that far. I would rather buy at higher prices than that if the conditions are right. Moving average crossovers like what was alluded to do not work, every study I have ever done or read about shows a net loss of money with those strategies so don’t use them.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Ironically when trying to call a bottom during a decline like this it becomes tough because the rules of the game are being re-written while it is being played. As a result many timing tools have been rendered worthless, the VIX to name one.

However, the one fundamental tool that has kept me out of trouble here has been watching the level of commercial buying or lack thereof. During the last decline that made the bottoms in 2002 and 2003, all one had to do was buy when the commercials began buying and they would have been in within a week of each of the major lows. It is exactly what I did. Recently during this whole decline the commercials have stayed solidly on the short side of the market, until this changes there is no reason to look at the long side in my opinion.

Commercials are hedgers by nature so usually they will be scale down buyers due to their basic function, which would normally reflect buying during moves like this. When they are selling it is an abnormal pattern which most often is very bearish. It is kind of an art reading this report and interpreting it and it is something I am constantly learning from even though I have watched it for many years.

With all that aside, I will not be looking for longs until the commercials show significant buying and there is no sign of that yet.

Guessing levels is tough but there does seem to be some confluence of things in the DOW 5500 area including elliott wave counts which I don’t use, and some valuation models. I don’t predict numbers that is for ego, I trade. However, those are numbers that if reached I might scale in buy without waiting for other things. I hope we don’t go that far. I would rather buy at higher prices than that if the conditions are right. Moving average crossovers like what was alluded to do not work, every study I have ever done or read about shows a net loss of money with those strategies so don’t use them.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Ironically when trying to call a bottom during a decline like this it becomes tough because the rules of the game are being re-written while it is being played. As a result many timing tools have been rendered worthless, the VIX to name one.

However, the one fundamental tool that has kept me out of trouble here has been watching the level of commercial buying or lack thereof. During the last decline that made the bottoms in 2002 and 2003, all one had to do was buy when the commercials began buying and they would have been in within a week of each of the major lows. It is exactly what I did. Recently during this whole decline the commercials have stayed solidly on the short side of the market, until this changes there is no reason to look at the long side in my opinion.

Commercials are hedgers by nature so usually they will be scale down buyers due to their basic function, which would normally reflect buying during moves like this. When they are selling it is an abnormal pattern which most often is very bearish. It is kind of an art reading this report and interpreting it and it is something I am constantly learning from even though I have watched it for many years.

With all that aside, I will not be looking for longs until the commercials show significant buying and there is no sign of that yet.

Guessing levels is tough but there does seem to be some confluence of things in the DOW 5500 area including elliott wave counts which I don’t use, and some valuation models. I don’t predict numbers that is for ego, I trade. However, those are numbers that if reached I might scale in buy without waiting for other things. I hope we don’t go that far. I would rather buy at higher prices than that if the conditions are right. Moving average crossovers like what was alluded to do not work, every study I have ever done or read about shows a net loss of money with those strategies so don’t use them.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

Ironically when trying to call a bottom during a decline like this it becomes tough because the rules of the game are being re-written while it is being played. As a result many timing tools have been rendered worthless, the VIX to name one.

However, the one fundamental tool that has kept me out of trouble here has been watching the level of commercial buying or lack thereof. During the last decline that made the bottoms in 2002 and 2003, all one had to do was buy when the commercials began buying and they would have been in within a week of each of the major lows. It is exactly what I did. Recently during this whole decline the commercials have stayed solidly on the short side of the market, until this changes there is no reason to look at the long side in my opinion.

Commercials are hedgers by nature so usually they will be scale down buyers due to their basic function, which would normally reflect buying during moves like this. When they are selling it is an abnormal pattern which most often is very bearish. It is kind of an art reading this report and interpreting it and it is something I am constantly learning from even though I have watched it for many years.

With all that aside, I will not be looking for longs until the commercials show significant buying and there is no sign of that yet.

Guessing levels is tough but there does seem to be some confluence of things in the DOW 5500 area including elliott wave counts which I don’t use, and some valuation models. I don’t predict numbers that is for ego, I trade. However, those are numbers that if reached I might scale in buy without waiting for other things. I hope we don’t go that far. I would rather buy at higher prices than that if the conditions are right. Moving average crossovers like what was alluded to do not work, every study I have ever done or read about shows a net loss of money with those strategies so don’t use them.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

So, PS called for S&P 500 to 600 by Spring 2007.

In Spring 2007 S&P500 was in the 1400 range.

Here we are 547 days past Spring of 2007 and people are giving credit for calling it right when the S&P 500 is still 25% above the level she called for.

I’m sorry but you cannot be serious.

If I call a stock market bottom today at S&P= 750 and the actual bottom is in Spring 2010 at a level 25% below today’s levels would you say I got it right ?

I don’t think so.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

So, PS called for S&P 500 to 600 by Spring 2007.

In Spring 2007 S&P500 was in the 1400 range.

Here we are 547 days past Spring of 2007 and people are giving credit for calling it right when the S&P 500 is still 25% above the level she called for.

I’m sorry but you cannot be serious.

If I call a stock market bottom today at S&P= 750 and the actual bottom is in Spring 2010 at a level 25% below today’s levels would you say I got it right ?

I don’t think so.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

So, PS called for S&P 500 to 600 by Spring 2007.

In Spring 2007 S&P500 was in the 1400 range.

Here we are 547 days past Spring of 2007 and people are giving credit for calling it right when the S&P 500 is still 25% above the level she called for.

I’m sorry but you cannot be serious.

If I call a stock market bottom today at S&P= 750 and the actual bottom is in Spring 2010 at a level 25% below today’s levels would you say I got it right ?

I don’t think so.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

So, PS called for S&P 500 to 600 by Spring 2007.

In Spring 2007 S&P500 was in the 1400 range.

Here we are 547 days past Spring of 2007 and people are giving credit for calling it right when the S&P 500 is still 25% above the level she called for.

I’m sorry but you cannot be serious.

If I call a stock market bottom today at S&P= 750 and the actual bottom is in Spring 2010 at a level 25% below today’s levels would you say I got it right ?

I don’t think so.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

So, PS called for S&P 500 to 600 by Spring 2007.

In Spring 2007 S&P500 was in the 1400 range.

Here we are 547 days past Spring of 2007 and people are giving credit for calling it right when the S&P 500 is still 25% above the level she called for.

I’m sorry but you cannot be serious.

If I call a stock market bottom today at S&P= 750 and the actual bottom is in Spring 2010 at a level 25% below today’s levels would you say I got it right ?

I don’t think so.

[DaCounselor]

A very bad call as to timing. Still way off as to the index level. A disasterous call as to “no fall rally” and staying out of the market for at least a year (leaving 20+% returns on the table). I’m not seeing where this was a good call or even a close call by any definition.

[DaCounselor]

A very bad call as to timing. Still way off as to the index level. A disasterous call as to “no fall rally” and staying out of the market for at least a year (leaving 20+% returns on the table). I’m not seeing where this was a good call or even a close call by any definition.

[DaCounselor]

A very bad call as to timing. Still way off as to the index level. A disasterous call as to “no fall rally” and staying out of the market for at least a year (leaving 20+% returns on the table). I’m not seeing where this was a good call or even a close call by any definition.

[DaCounselor]

A very bad call as to timing. Still way off as to the index level. A disasterous call as to “no fall rally” and staying out of the market for at least a year (leaving 20+% returns on the table). I’m not seeing where this was a good call or even a close call by any definition.

[DaCounselor]

A very bad call as to timing. Still way off as to the index level. A disasterous call as to “no fall rally” and staying out of the market for at least a year (leaving 20+% returns on the table). I’m not seeing where this was a good call or even a close call by any definition.

[Author]

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