S&P500 dropping to 600 by spring 07

[LA_Renter]

I just knew this thread was going to reappear. I guess the S&P in the 600’s isn’t so far fetched now. Roubini was also off his timing of the recession by over a year. I guess Mr Market plays by Mr Market’s rules.

[LA_Renter]

I just knew this thread was going to reappear. I guess the S&P in the 600’s isn’t so far fetched now. Roubini was also off his timing of the recession by over a year. I guess Mr Market plays by Mr Market’s rules.

[LA_Renter]

I just knew this thread was going to reappear. I guess the S&P in the 600’s isn’t so far fetched now. Roubini was also off his timing of the recession by over a year. I guess Mr Market plays by Mr Market’s rules.

[LA_Renter]

I just knew this thread was going to reappear. I guess the S&P in the 600’s isn’t so far fetched now. Roubini was also off his timing of the recession by over a year. I guess Mr Market plays by Mr Market’s rules.

[LA_Renter]

I just knew this thread was going to reappear. I guess the S&P in the 600’s isn’t so far fetched now. Roubini was also off his timing of the recession by over a year. I guess Mr Market plays by Mr Market’s rules.

[davelj]

[quote=davelj]Personally, I think it will be more than 15% if we head into a recession because the current estimates are for the S&P to grow earnings both this year and next in the high-single digit to low-double digit range. If we hit a recession earnings will decline as profit margins – which are currently as high as they’ve ever been since recordkeeping began in 1954 – collapse. So, you’ll get a P/E adjustment AND a large earnings adjustment at the same time – a double whammy, if you will, on the valuation front. I think 900 on the S&P 500 and 1800 on the Nasdaq is not at all unrealistic at some point in the next two years, but they could easily stall at 1000 and 2000, respectively. I don’t have a crystal ball, but my bet is that we’re headed into a correction that’s deeper than 15%.[/quote]

I was just re-reading some of this thread and found this gem. Funny how what seemed impossibly bearish just 20 months ago seems quaintly bullish today!

[davelj]

[quote=davelj]Personally, I think it will be more than 15% if we head into a recession because the current estimates are for the S&P to grow earnings both this year and next in the high-single digit to low-double digit range. If we hit a recession earnings will decline as profit margins – which are currently as high as they’ve ever been since recordkeeping began in 1954 – collapse. So, you’ll get a P/E adjustment AND a large earnings adjustment at the same time – a double whammy, if you will, on the valuation front. I think 900 on the S&P 500 and 1800 on the Nasdaq is not at all unrealistic at some point in the next two years, but they could easily stall at 1000 and 2000, respectively. I don’t have a crystal ball, but my bet is that we’re headed into a correction that’s deeper than 15%.[/quote]

I was just re-reading some of this thread and found this gem. Funny how what seemed impossibly bearish just 20 months ago seems quaintly bullish today!

[davelj]

[quote=davelj]Personally, I think it will be more than 15% if we head into a recession because the current estimates are for the S&P to grow earnings both this year and next in the high-single digit to low-double digit range. If we hit a recession earnings will decline as profit margins – which are currently as high as they’ve ever been since recordkeeping began in 1954 – collapse. So, you’ll get a P/E adjustment AND a large earnings adjustment at the same time – a double whammy, if you will, on the valuation front. I think 900 on the S&P 500 and 1800 on the Nasdaq is not at all unrealistic at some point in the next two years, but they could easily stall at 1000 and 2000, respectively. I don’t have a crystal ball, but my bet is that we’re headed into a correction that’s deeper than 15%.[/quote]

I was just re-reading some of this thread and found this gem. Funny how what seemed impossibly bearish just 20 months ago seems quaintly bullish today!

[davelj]

[quote=davelj]Personally, I think it will be more than 15% if we head into a recession because the current estimates are for the S&P to grow earnings both this year and next in the high-single digit to low-double digit range. If we hit a recession earnings will decline as profit margins – which are currently as high as they’ve ever been since recordkeeping began in 1954 – collapse. So, you’ll get a P/E adjustment AND a large earnings adjustment at the same time – a double whammy, if you will, on the valuation front. I think 900 on the S&P 500 and 1800 on the Nasdaq is not at all unrealistic at some point in the next two years, but they could easily stall at 1000 and 2000, respectively. I don’t have a crystal ball, but my bet is that we’re headed into a correction that’s deeper than 15%.[/quote]

I was just re-reading some of this thread and found this gem. Funny how what seemed impossibly bearish just 20 months ago seems quaintly bullish today!

[davelj]

[quote=davelj]Personally, I think it will be more than 15% if we head into a recession because the current estimates are for the S&P to grow earnings both this year and next in the high-single digit to low-double digit range. If we hit a recession earnings will decline as profit margins – which are currently as high as they’ve ever been since recordkeeping began in 1954 – collapse. So, you’ll get a P/E adjustment AND a large earnings adjustment at the same time – a double whammy, if you will, on the valuation front. I think 900 on the S&P 500 and 1800 on the Nasdaq is not at all unrealistic at some point in the next two years, but they could easily stall at 1000 and 2000, respectively. I don’t have a crystal ball, but my bet is that we’re headed into a correction that’s deeper than 15%.[/quote]

I was just re-reading some of this thread and found this gem. Funny how what seemed impossibly bearish just 20 months ago seems quaintly bullish today!

[Anonymous]

I was just thinking about this thread today, so glad someone bumped it up.

For all the shit everyone gave PS on this board, I haven’t seen anyone admit that she was right.

Well not timing wise, but wtf. She was a lot more right than everyone else telling her she was wrong.

S&P 600? What are 600 index puts going for these days?

[Anonymous]

I was just thinking about this thread today, so glad someone bumped it up.

For all the shit everyone gave PS on this board, I haven’t seen anyone admit that she was right.

Well not timing wise, but wtf. She was a lot more right than everyone else telling her she was wrong.

S&P 600? What are 600 index puts going for these days?

[Anonymous]

I was just thinking about this thread today, so glad someone bumped it up.

For all the shit everyone gave PS on this board, I haven’t seen anyone admit that she was right.

Well not timing wise, but wtf. She was a lot more right than everyone else telling her she was wrong.

S&P 600? What are 600 index puts going for these days?

[Anonymous]

I was just thinking about this thread today, so glad someone bumped it up.

For all the shit everyone gave PS on this board, I haven’t seen anyone admit that she was right.

Well not timing wise, but wtf. She was a lot more right than everyone else telling her she was wrong.

S&P 600? What are 600 index puts going for these days?

[Anonymous]

I was just thinking about this thread today, so glad someone bumped it up.

For all the shit everyone gave PS on this board, I haven’t seen anyone admit that she was right.

Well not timing wise, but wtf. She was a lot more right than everyone else telling her she was wrong.

S&P 600? What are 600 index puts going for these days?

[Author]

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