**RING THE BELL** Offically over 20,000 for sale in San Diego County!!!

[Bugs]

DaC,

Here’s what I said:

“The premium might vary somewhat depending on overall demand (less during good times, more during hard times), but these two markets are never disconnected from each other. ”

That’s not at all the same thing as saying they would stay the same.

We’re early yet in this downcycle – way too early to claim we can analyze the end results. These markets didn’t move at the same time or at the same pace when they were increasing but they all increased. There’s no reason to suggest they’ll behave differently while they decrease. The net result for the upswing was increases across the board; I fully anticipate the decreases to settle out across the board in the same manner.

[Ash Housewares]

El Jefe, you’re treading dangerously close to the “it’s different this time” thinking that we mock so many others for on this site.

I see what you’re saying and it is logical, but since when is this market logical.

[gn]

I agree with El Jefe. Think of it this way: Ultimately, the correction is about supply vs. demand.

Now, there are more than one way in which supply can overwhelm demand:

1. Massive job losses (early 1990s)
2. Easy credit & excessive speculation (currently)

So, it’s the SAME, as in the same pattern (supply overwhelms demand). But, it’s DIFFERENT, as in the mechanism that causes supply to overwhelm demand.

Of course, when the bulls say “it’s different this time”, they are hoping the the same PATTERN won’t be repeated. And that’s where the bulls are mistaken 🙂

[little lady]

It is NOT the same as last time. No two downturns are identical, though they are cyclical.

It makes no difference how you slice it, we ARE in a downturn. What remains to be seen is how far and fast it will go.

[LA_Renter]

“LA_Renter: Properties available to RENT are hard to find – there is indeed a shortage in LA – especially low priced units. (due to estimated 1M illegals in LA?)”

I agree on that point, I was pointing out that there is no shortage of bubble priced homes. As a whole sales volumes are way down and inventory is rising. There are still some hot zip codes but they are getting fewer by the day.

[DaCounselor]

“Bug never said it’s the same. He said a 30% premium won’t become a 100% premium. I agree with that statement. I was the one who said it’s the same. Let me take that back and say that I agree with Bug’s statement. You’re nit picking at the tree and fail to see the forest.”
_______________________

I don’t equate wanting to see and analyze supporting data with “nit-picking”. But now that asianautica has withdrawn the “tends to stay the same” argument, it’s irrelevant.

As for my request for a response from Bugs, that was only intended to solicit further analysis regarding the Zillow data posted. I did not mistake Bugs as the author of the “tends to stay the same” argument, am aware of Bugs position and generally agree that there is not likely to be a massive increase (aka 100%) in premiums paid.

My position has been and remains that the most desireable areas of SD will weather the downturn better than the less desireable areas. That’s it.

[an]

DaC, I agree with you there. Of course it’ll weather the storm better than less desirable area. If you look at my comparison between the less desirable area like Mira Mesa, it boomed much bigger than desirable area. In cases like MM vs SR, MM risen about 300% in the last 10 years while SR risen about 200%. So if MM dropped 66%, it would be equivalent to SR dropping 50%. I’ve said from the beginning that I agree with Bugs’ statement. Since we both agree with them, then we’re just debating on the semantics. I only mean you’re nit-picking my word of the “same”. So, I’ll rephrase it. I think the % premium will be similar to the last bottom.

[Author]

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