**RING THE BELL** Offically over 20,000 for sale in San Diego County!!!

[masayako]

http://www.ziprealty.com/buy_a_home/search/form/cityG.jsp?usage=search&cKey=74rbwvlk&metro=sandiego

20,025 homes for sale in San Diego, CA

Let the price COME DOWN, WAY DOWN!!!!

Long live the Piggingtons!

[sdappraiser]

My MLS search shows 20,248.. Close enough.

BUT – of that number, 4,027 are PENDING. 20% of total under contract.

Has anyone kept track of pending/active ratios? This doesn’t seem so gloom and doom to me.

I’ve got a listing that has received multiple offers in the last few days with multiple showings scheduled even though they know we are in negotiations. I’ve heard similar stories from other agents. The buyers might be coming out of the woodworks now that tax season is over.

Put your party hats away, give it a few more months.

[SD Realtor]

I went to the search page for combo, typed in alsdc and hit statistics and it showed 16,738 actives. I did not include shadow zips. 4091 properties pending.

I maintain what I have said all along, desireable properties in desireable areas are moving. Here is an example where I currently rent and want to live in Scripps. I want old Scripps though, not Stonebridge, and not anything in New Scripps. However doing a search on 92131 I see a total of 85 active listings. However only 13 of those active listings were built before 1985.

By the way, as you noted SDA the pending ratio is telling. Right now there are 52 pendings in 92131.

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This is by NO WAY representative of the overall market. Other neighborhoods have serious problems. Still other more desireable neighborhoods do not.

SD Realtor

[capeman]

Just make sure it doesn’t have shake shingles…

[temeculaguy]

SD, you know that no matter how bad it gets, even a 20% across the board drop from today or better, old scripps is designed to weather this storm and will only get half of the drop if that. 25-30 year old, high end homes whose neighborhood didn’t fall apart around them probably have large amount of people with little to no mortgage, very few people paying 2003-2006 prices, even fewer neg ams or interest only, no subprime with owners at an age that their life and jobs are stable and the speculators and investors are slim, but they aren’t too old of houses that everyone is dying or moving to assisted living and passing them to their kids who heloc them and because the neighborhood actually improved as did the schools, there is no reason to move. Nothing makes that area ripe for anything but a percentage of the overall drop. You give a lot of people good advice and have enough knowledge to make a killing in the downturn, it must feel like a handicap that you are so set on one of the few items in the store that will never go on sale.

[SD Realtor]

capeman – you got that right brother!

tememcula guy – very well said. The heat is coming strong from the wife about buying and has been for awhile. I submitted another lowball offer on a home on Sunset Ridge and was denied and then the home went into escrow…wifey almost took a hatchet to me… Actually our criteria is good schools, large yard/lot, and a “somewhat” central location. We are priced out of Solana Beach, Del Mar, older Carmel Valley/Del Mar Heights area and like you said, always will be unless I want to finance something I couldn’t afford. Wife hates UC,I don’t want to do the north county coastal drive, so Scripps is kind of a compromise that is close but still out of our (well my pricing) reach.

Your point is well said and what I try to say alot, that the downturn will hit different areas in varying manners. Others thing it will be a forest fire across the board. I tend to think it will be pretty tough in many areas but the description you put out there for certain places will cushion them so that it will be less dramatic.

SD Realtor

[an]

SD Realtor, your criteria also fit sabre springs & Carmel Mt. area. Is that too far north for you? Anyways, do you think those 2 area will hold up as well as old scripps?

[Critter]

SDR and sdr, are either of you able to track what percentage of pendings fall out of escrow? I keep hearing about lending standards tightening and people wanting to buy, signing a contract, and then not being able to finance through escrow (the lending terms changing with the buyer unable to come up with sufficient down payment or reserves – the mortgage brokers going bottom up – etc).

It used to be rare to fall out of escrow. Is that still the case?

[murray]

Tierrasanta (92124) SFR inventory is unusually LOW but condos, twnhms & PUDs are plentiful. Agent told me (3 weeks ago when I was down there) that it’s a little slow, buyers still in driver’s seat, but stuff IS selling, even expensive properties. I see very little, if any erosion in Tierrasanta SFR asking prices from 2005/6 …I think having such low inventory gives a floor support for prices.
Anyone else seeing this phenom in other SD areas? Will downturn be limited to overbuilt South Bay/Eastlake area?

Here in LA (Burbank) sales are a little soft but median price increases EVERY month. I’m amazed what people pay for crap here. Unlike SD, there is a severe housing and rental unit shortage in LA.

[SD Realtor]

Anaut – I think that yeah these are a bit to far north for me. My wife is a HUGE Poway fan (certain parts of it) but again I do alot of work in Sorrento Valley and I don’t relish that drive. So she is cool on Poway, I am not. For some reason she is not a fan of Sabre Springs or CM and personally I see more downside risk in those areas…. Scripps is pushing the envelope commute wise. Sabre Springs is to tight for me… As you know there are some pockets in both those areas that do have larger lots, specially the homes that back to hillsides, so that is pretty cool.

I think that those areas will get hit harder then old Scripps. As you know there are foreclosures popping up all over 92128 and although it is older then Carmel Valley, it is not as …. matured as old Scripps, La Costa etc… So I think you could see some pretty smoking deals in CM and SS and that it will fall apart faster and in a more substantial manner.

[SD Realtor]

Critter – I have been lucky… so far the escrows I have had this spring have been solid. We had a liting that closed escrow today on a 100% financed subprime buyer that got 3% back AND another 10k went to a remediation company. It was all above board in the contract.

In order to get hard numbers for you one could do a string search in the MLS for stuff like BOM or back on market or something like that but it is tedious and not scientific. Alternately one could compare the MT verses AMT fields in the listing, (MT – market time, AMT is adjusted market time) and a substantial difference in these fields would indicate a home was active, then went pending, then went active againg indicating a defaulted escrow. Again though you don’t know why they defaulted. So… the answer is that it is speculative. Yes I do believe more homes are falling out of escrow but no I cannot give numbers or reasons why. I do believe standards are tightening.

SD Realtor

[Critter]

SDR – thanks for the info. My “around the water cooler” talk has had comments that so-and-so thought their house was sold, but then it fell out of escrow… and someone else chimes in that their friend’s house fell out escrow not once but twice.

May you live in interesting times!

[DaCounselor]

“I see very little, if any erosion in Tierrasanta SFR asking prices from 2005/6 …I think having such low inventory gives a floor support for prices.
Anyone else seeing this phenom in other SD areas? Will downturn be limited to overbuilt South Bay/Eastlake area?”
______________________________

Only a few homes in my Bay Ho neighborhood sold at peak prices in mid 2005 – the recent sales have been comparable to sales prior to that final ’05 spike. Inventory is currently low. I agree with all who believe that there has been and will continue to be significant differences between neighborhoods insofar as the degree of price erosion. Those who are waiting for a significant reduction in prices in quality, sought-after and established neighborhoods may never see a price they like.

[Bugs]

If you were to graph the pricing trends and put them up on a map, I think you’d see the trends are progressing from the outskirts to the center. By that, I mean that – all other factors being comparable – the areas located farther from employment are showing more losses than the areas close to the metro areas. Commute time to work is a huge factor for most people.

I would anticipate an area like Scripps to be among the last areas to show significant decline and among the first areas to recover. Valley Center, Ramona and Alpine will be among the areas that lead the decline.

However, unless this correction gets cut short for some reason, the prime areas will still end up – proportionately speaking – priced relative to the outlying areas. Must sell transactions occur all across the economic spectrum. If the same house in Scripps is currently 30% more than it would be in Escondido it’ll eventually settle a little higher proportionately, but it won’t be 50% higher. Let alone 100%.

[an]

I totally agree with Bugs on the fact the desire and developed area will be hit just like others. They always commend a premium compare to less desirable areas, but the percentage tend to stay the same. So you have two scenarios, 1) price drop just like other areas but still maintain a % premium. There would be less sales but the one that get sold will be priced in comparison to the rest of SD. 2) price drop on paper but everybody there are so flushed w/ equity that no one need to sell. Which mean there would be no sale in area like Old Scripps until the price is back up to today level. I think scenario 1 is more likely, but we’ll just have to wait and see.

[Author]

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