Redfin shows San Diego Inventory at 31% below the two year low… WHY?

[ocrenter]

not so much slow and steady, but more of small waves of up and down, without significant increase upward.

I really should back up and say the decade I’m referring to started in 2008, so more or less half way through.

[briansd1]

[quote=ocrenter]not so much slow and steady, but more of small waves of up and down, without significant increase upward.

I really should back up and say the decade I’m referring to started in 2008, so more or less half way through.[/quote]

I agree with OC renter.

Loans are harder to qualify for because of stricter underwriting. The higher-end will be affected more.

[The-Shoveler]

[quote=briansd1][quote=ocrenter]not so much slow and steady, but more of small waves of up and down, without significant increase upward.

I really should back up and say the decade I’m referring to started in 2008, so more or less half way through.[/quote]

I agree with OC renter.

Loans are harder to qualify for because of stricter underwriting. The higher-end will be affected more.[/quote]

It’s all about Credit (well OK Jobs too),

This (below) is the switch I think will get thrown (out) eventually, it makes no sense at this point in time.
I think the lenders will go back to `10% and maybe even 5% downs and still offer low rates once things show stability
(If we let them)
Right now it is like pulling teeth

Regulators are now fleshing out the QRM definition, and propose requiring 20% down payments from borrowers. Since the down payment is generally lost in a foreclosure, that would give homeowners a strong incentive to keep making payments even if they run into financial trouble. A smaller loan relative to the property’s value also makes it easier for the lender to recover the debt in a foreclosure.

Right now, most borrowers put at least 20% down, because lenders are still pretty nervous. But experts have generally thought the market would gradually return to normal, allowing down payments of only 5% or 10%.

If the QRM designation does end up requiring 20% down payments, that will likely become standard across the board, since lenders would want to be exempt from the rule requiring they keep 5% of the securities they create. The retention rule would expose them to risk and tie up money they might prefer to use in other ways.

A 20% down payment is a tough hurdle for first-time home buyers, but it can also be a problem for homeowners who want to trade up. In the past, most homeowners have counted on equity in the current home to cover the down payment on the next. But sinking home values in the past few years have left nearly half of homeowners with mortgages that have equity less than 20%. (About a third of homeowners have no mortgage debt at all.)

Bottom line: Even if you have owned a home for years, you might have to dig into other savings to make the down payment the next time you move.

The QRM rules are still being debated, and many lenders and consumer groups oppose the 20% rule, so things could change.

[briansd1]

Credit is the grease in the wheels of real estate.

20% down has always been the norm. The bubble changed that, but it’s back.

Lower downpayment loans end up costing more because of mortgage insurance, and fees. I think that homebuyers are more careful now, whereas during the boom, they’d think “it doesn’t matter because once the house appreciates we can refinance.” Not so easy these days.

The responsibile people most screwed are those who put 20% down at the peak, and went for fixed rate loans. They can’t refinance because they don’t have equity. So they are stuck in high interest rate loans making monthly offerings to the Gods of Money.

[briansd1]

dup

[The-Shoveler]

Once we see stability I think we will see a return to 20+80 loans as well.
Getting the down payment together is a big obstacle to a lot of people,
PMI looks cheap if you don’t have the cash for a down payment.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=briansd1][quote=ocrenter]not so much slow and steady, but more of small waves of up and down, without significant increase upward.

I really should back up and say the decade I’m referring to started in 2008, so more or less half way through.[/quote]

I agree with OC renter.

Loans are harder to qualify for because of stricter underwriting. The higher-end will be affected more.[/quote]

4 offers in a couple days on a 1.2M+ property and I expect it to reach 10 offers by the end of the weekend. It is higher than any other house has sold in that community in 6 months but its better than the others also. Tons of demand for great properties.

[briansd1]

Not sure about your community, sdrealtor.

Not that I’m interested in this particular property below, but it’s a pretty unique one facing the park.

But so far no takers …
http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-6B090845-2626_6th_Ave_200_San_Diego_CA_92103

[briansd1]

[quote=Nor-LA-SD-GUY2]
PMI looks cheap if you don’t have the cash for a down payment.[/quote]

I actually think that mortgage insurance looks pretty expensive in a low interest rate environment. The insurance premium equates to a large sum of money.

I think that people don’t mind paying mortgage insurance if they know it will go away in a predictable amount of time… but it’s hard to say these days.

[sdrealtor]

That’s a lot of money for a condo. The house I’m talking bout has a great view and it’s completely private. Very unique for what it is. When new it sold to friends and family of the builder as these always do. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a neighbor of that house grab it

[The-Shoveler]

I guess there is no guarantee but assuming you can refi in a few years getting rid of the PMI is not a big hurdle I would think. Unless rates go up in which case just sticking with the loan an suffering the PMI will still look good most likely.

But being that the fed already owns about 6 times as much of our national debt as china does and it pays all the interest it gets back to the treasury every year, I think it will never matter one bit if china stops buying our debt. So I think they will be able to keep the interest rates exactly where they want indefinitely, but that’s just my opinion.

That does not mean they won’t want to raise them at some point, but at that point I think would require wage inflation.

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