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The-Shoveler.
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February 1, 2012 at 2:54 PM #19476February 1, 2012 at 3:04 PM #737169
sdrealtor
ParticipantInventory always falls this time of year and begins to climb after the Super Bowl. I just checked at there are about 7,858 active houses, townhomes and condos. I hadnt checked in a long time and that seems awful low. Hope we start getting more inventory soon.
February 1, 2012 at 3:09 PM #737171yoyoyah1
ParticipantAgree with the seasonality.. but to be 31% below the two year low seems odd..
Since sales are not driving down inventory its a supply side problem..
February 1, 2012 at 3:16 PM #737172SD Realtor
ParticipantThis is pretty much what some of us have been saying. As sdr said, alot of it has to do with seasonality. Some of it also has to do with demand and an improved local market. Some of it also is a supply side issue.
There is a post about the foreclosure tsunami and lack thereof.
Also the continuation and even growth of the current govt manipulation of the market with regards to what would be distressed supply will continue. In fact there was another announcement today just about that.
Get used to it. (the manipulation that is). Supply will grow as sdr said.
February 1, 2012 at 3:38 PM #737173ParticipantI am not so sure that it will grow and match the level’s we have seen the last two years.. even with demand bought forward in 2010. Lower low’s and a lower highs says that sellers are exhausting at current price levels..
In the last two years.. rolling 3 month demand hasn’t even been close to supply levels.. but looks like its touching now..
if supply was being manipulated.. i don’t think they would wait far below the two year minimum..
February 1, 2012 at 3:51 PM #737174ParticipantSupply has been manipulated for the past 4 years. Manipulation takes many forms. If we didn’t have the manipulation you would have seen astronomical inventory over the past few years. Manipulation takes many forms. Remember the govt 10k incentive to buy back in 09? Do you ever wonder about the tens of thousands of squatters and people who havent paid a penny to the mortgage servicing company in months and sometimes years before being kicked out? How about all of the programs to modify loans and forgive debt?
These are all forms of manipulation because the end result is that these homes did not come to the market in a timely manner and they should have. We should have seen a glut of inventory and that would have pushed prices down.
None of this just started… it has been in place quite awhile.
Do you actually think it is a free market?
February 1, 2012 at 4:03 PM #737175temeculaguy
ParticipantOut of curiosity I ran my own zip code, similar results, inventory is incredibly low. I have a theory. When I broke down the numbers there were about 160 normal listings and 100 shorts. These don’t count those already in escrow/pending. 2 or 3 years ago, these totals were at least double, but mostly they were shorts. From 07-09 shorts took forever, foreclosures took forever. Shorts sat on the market for 6 months listed as active when in fact there were a dozen offers, it skewed the stats. Now shorts seem to happen faster and are more likely to be accurate about pending or not.
The total number combined, shorts, active and pending is at 300 today, it was 500 at it’s two year peak and this week last year and the year before it was at 450ish, so it’s down by a third, so it’s not the seasonal variation mentioned above.
I unchecked everything except for sales records and picked the largest span available of 3 years. That number was 4,800. The zip code has 40k people and just under 15k housing units. So in the last three years, 1/3 of all of housing units turned over, at lower prices and rates. This doesn’t include 2008, it doesn’t include when I bought, and doesn’t include this particular zip code’s bottom. It’s probably closer to half because Temecula was experiencing tsuinami like conditions in 2008. So with half of all the houses having new owners, not underwater and not having exotic financing, they are running out of people who want to move, most people just did.
That’s my theory, it only applies to my zip code, but it’s not a case of manipulation here, just a market dynamic. There will always be divorce, death and relocations, but they will not be huge spikes, rather slow, small and steady. The spike, the reset, well, it already happened. Wait ten years, it will happen again.
I don’t want to start a riot, but there is one inevitible thing that happens when the supply begins to dip. Nah, I don’t want to upset anyone.
February 1, 2012 at 4:12 PM #737176ParticipantI didn’t say it wasn’t being manipulated.. I said that manipulation by itself can’t explain what’s different over the last 6 months…
If we set a lower high in inventory during the spring/summer.. then prices have to increase to create more supply..
February 1, 2012 at 4:25 PM #737179The-Shoveler
ParticipantI think I saw something where now if you’re in the short sale process, then they cannot simultaneously start the foreclosure process on you, but I could be wrong,
Me myself I think the banks are planning to wait until demand comes on line. I think they learned their lesson on the beating they took at the low end; I don’t think they could not survive that again,
Then again I would not want to be looking in CV after QCOM’s and Broadcoms earnings either.February 1, 2012 at 4:40 PM #737183ParticipantSorry if I was mistaken yoyo… I think there are alot of factors involved and manipulation is just one of them. I think Temeculaguy brought up a good point. To summarize this is simply the acculated results of everything that has happened over the past few years. We will see price increases over the next few years as well AS LONG AS interest rates stay low.
February 1, 2012 at 4:43 PM #737184markmax33
Guest[quote=yoyoyah1]I didn’t say it wasn’t being manipulated.. I said that manipulation by itself can’t explain what’s different over the last 6 months…
If we set a lower high in inventory during the spring/summer.. then prices have to increase to create more supply..[/quote]
It is easily explained by the robo-signing scandal.
Another thing is the banks keep thinking Obama is going to keep bailing them out and incentivizing the consumer to take these properties off their books by some crappy-screw the tax payer-program. The banks have no incentive to liquidate. They have been trained they can hold a gun to the head of the GOV and get bailed out.
The market will crack back really hard one day soon. Something fairly unexpected will crush it. I’ll vote the derrivates market, but I don’t really know at this point.
February 1, 2012 at 4:48 PM #737185Participant[quote=Nor-LA-SD-GUY2]I think I saw something where now if you’re in the short sale process, then they cannot simultaneously start the foreclosure process on you, but I could be wrong,
Me myself I think the banks are planning to wait until demand comes on line. I think they learned their lesson on the beating they took at the low end; I don’t think they could not survive that again,
Then again I would not want to be looking in CV after QCOM’s and Broadcoms earnings either.[/quote]Dont forget Ligand under hostile takeover attack also
February 1, 2012 at 5:21 PM #737193desmond
ParticipantAll excellent and well thought out reasons, nobody mentioned that with such low listing and lower selling prices many cannot even afford to sell their homes, and many are probably waiting for “better prices”, just a thought. I would imagine when prices “heat up” inventory will adjust.
February 1, 2012 at 5:28 PM #737194ParticipantWe can only hope that happens.
February 1, 2012 at 11:26 PM #737217sdduuuude
Participant[quote=desmond]All excellent and well thought out reasons, nobody mentioned that with such low listing and lower selling prices many cannot even afford to sell their homes, and many are probably waiting for “better prices”, just a thought. I would imagine when prices “heat up” inventory will adjust.[/quote]
That’s a good comment. I’m seeing in Carmel Valley that sellers have definitely started to cave-in to the low offers. The homes that are on the market are there because they have a reason to sell, with a few high-priced exceptions that have no hope of selling anyway. Other would-be sellers are, as you say, waiting for higher prices.
Seems that buyers expectations of lower prices have started running into sellers that are willing to concede.
Take a peek over at the little Redfin chart to the right, with the red and blue lines. Tells the same story.
In order for prices to pick up, pricing expectations and willingness to pay on the demand side has to pick-up as well. There’s little that I see to suggest it will.
This means a continued slow decline in prices, with occasional bounces. Like a ball bouncing down a gentle slope.
I agree there is no tsunami coming but we don’t need one for prices to dip a bit. Then again, it is coming into the selling season. We’ll see if the Spring brings buyers, sellers, both or neither.
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