Recap on Temeclua, Murrieta, French Valley, etc.?

[Anonymous]

hipmatt, bearvine, thanks for your posts. I had decided upon waiting till december, and can wait longer if I can get better deals.
One more thing to consider would be property tax rates — I came to know that Morgan hill is 1.9% while Redhawk (or parts of it) are 1.4%. That .5% would save about $2000 per year in taxes for a $400k home.

[Anonymous]

“You may have read posts by SD Realtor and sdrealtor. They have responded to numerous questions about why certain areas are falling less than others. Bugs fills in with his appraisal insights. The fact that is pointed out is that it’s all about area. Temecula is just a more desirable area than others here in So. Riverside County so it will fall less than the outlying areas and recover more quickly.”

This isn’t true. Only a small percentage of the population that bought these over-priced homes, McMansions and smaller ones, can afford them. They got into them because of these dubious arm and negative amortization laons and now or very shortly,as the market continues to crash, will be upside down. They will be walking away from them and turning in keys. This will further drive the prices crashing down–even in Temecula.

As stated above, TemekuT, you are one of few who can afford a home if you bought in this inflated market-or took out a second loan you couldn’t afford.

Temecula is OK. Nothing more. The schools are good, but so are a lot of other areas. It’s not coastal area, there is NOTHING to support 400K to 600k prices of single homes. In another year or two, I will pick up a nice, spacious home in the high 100’s, low 200’s. Not a penny more. If you bought at the peak of this bubble and put 60K down, you will have wasted all that money.

[Anonymous]

“You may have read posts by SD Realtor and sdrealtor. They have responded to numerous questions about why certain areas are falling less than others. Bugs fills in with his appraisal insights. The fact that is pointed out is that it’s all about area. Temecula is just a more desirable area than others here in So. Riverside County so it will fall less than the outlying areas and recover more quickly.”

This isn’t true. Only a small percentage of the population that bought these over-priced homes, McMansions and smaller ones, can afford them. They got into them because of these dubious arm and negative amortization laons and now or very shortly,as the market continues to crash, will be upside down. They will be walking away from them and turning in keys. This will further drive the prices crashing down–even in Temecula.

As stated above, TemekuT, you are one of few who can afford a home if you bought in this inflated market-or took out a second loan you couldn’t afford.

Temecula is OK. Nothing more. The schools are good, but so are a lot of other areas. It’s not coastal area, there is NOTHING to support 400K to 600k prices of single homes. In another year or two, I will pick up a nice, spacious home in the high 100’s, low 200’s. Not a penny more. If you bought at the peak of this bubble and put 60K down, you will have wasted all that money.

[Anonymous]

“You may have read posts by SD Realtor and sdrealtor. They have responded to numerous questions about why certain areas are falling less than others. Bugs fills in with his appraisal insights. The fact that is pointed out is that it’s all about area. Temecula is just a more desirable area than others here in So. Riverside County so it will fall less than the outlying areas and recover more quickly.”

This isn’t true. Only a small percentage of the population that bought these over-priced homes, McMansions and smaller ones, can afford them. They got into them because of these dubious arm and negative amortization laons and now or very shortly,as the market continues to crash, will be upside down. They will be walking away from them and turning in keys. This will further drive the prices crashing down–even in Temecula.

As stated above, TemekuT, you are one of few who can afford a home if you bought in this inflated market-or took out a second loan you couldn’t afford.

Temecula is OK. Nothing more. The schools are good, but so are a lot of other areas. It’s not coastal area, there is NOTHING to support 400K to 600k prices of single homes. In another year or two, I will pick up a nice, spacious home in the high 100’s, low 200’s. Not a penny more. If you bought at the peak of this bubble and put 60K down, you will have wasted all that money.

[The-Shoveler]

marion

I will pick up a nice, spacious home in the high 100’s, low 200’s. Not a penny more..

I think you may be a bit too wishful here, I think about 100 sqf for the bigger homes, maybe 125 to 150 sqf for the smaller homes (unless it is a foreclosure wreck with some major fixing needed) is about where it will bottom in Temecula area . (that’s just my opinion, no expert just a gut feel).

well anyway good luck to you.

In the end we are all just renting space anyway.

[The-Shoveler]

marion

I will pick up a nice, spacious home in the high 100’s, low 200’s. Not a penny more..

I think you may be a bit too wishful here, I think about 100 sqf for the bigger homes, maybe 125 to 150 sqf for the smaller homes (unless it is a foreclosure wreck with some major fixing needed) is about where it will bottom in Temecula area . (that’s just my opinion, no expert just a gut feel).

well anyway good luck to you.

In the end we are all just renting space anyway.

[The-Shoveler]

marion

I will pick up a nice, spacious home in the high 100’s, low 200’s. Not a penny more..

I think you may be a bit too wishful here, I think about 100 sqf for the bigger homes, maybe 125 to 150 sqf for the smaller homes (unless it is a foreclosure wreck with some major fixing needed) is about where it will bottom in Temecula area . (that’s just my opinion, no expert just a gut feel).

well anyway good luck to you.

In the end we are all just renting space anyway.

[SDHousehunter]

Ahh, Temecula.

Its been a little while since I posted, however, reading these posts “inspired”me.

I see nothing of value as far as jobs, industry to support the speculative real estate boom that occured out in Riverside/Imperial county other than stripmall retail, liquor stores or public service jobs. This is subprime ground zero and the whole areas will decline in value until rents can cover the mortgage or 2 million illegal immigrants are naturalized, given social security numbers and financed through FHA to buy all the overbuilt crap out there.

In my humble opintion, I see Temecula as the only city of any intrinsic value in Riverside due to its proximity to San Diego County and its job base. Palm Springs would be comparable if not better were it not for the heat.

I am currently renting a beautiful 1900 sq. ft. home for $1,600/month with everything I could ever want. I pay $19,200 a year to rent a home puchased for $440,000 in 2004. Please plug these numbers into a Rent vs Buy calculator and do a comparison.

Prior to this rental we lived in a condo area near Morgan Hill called Auberry Place. In 2005 units for 1,600 sq. ft. were at $389,000. Now they can’t sell any of the units for over $250,000. Do a redfin sales check on the area e.g., Winston Way.

Nationally we are in for another 3 years of pricing declines, however locally here in Riverside noone knows how bad it will get as the rates reset until 2011. The speed and degree of decline is amazing. YOY price declines of 13% do not occur in a vaccuum and do not dissappear overnight. You will have 13% than 8% than 4% than 2% declines as the inventory bleeds out. The question is: Who is going to buy this inventory now that subprime is dead and 60% of the buyers are out of the market?

Now they are requiring downpayments and max house payments of 28% of Gross income. Do you know many people that can fully document 140K salaries?

I can say from personal experience that the automobile industry is getting hammered with no end in sight. My colleagues in the banking industry are in the same boat. Generally automobile and housing data have a historical relationship.

Because I chose to rent I have:

a) No Credit Card debt
b) No Auto payments (2 vehicles 02 and 04)
c) 5K in Student Debt remaining
d) Cash Reserves

Since the housing boom gasoline is up by 50% and my monthly food costs have doubled. (Have you seen the food prices!) My surplus cash reserves have allowed me to take all these hits without losing any sleep and purchase a 6 speaker surround sound system from Magnolia Home theater in my living room and a Culligan Soft Water treatment system. I eat out when I don’t feel like cooking and make sure my family exactly what they need.

Temecula is a wonderful town with a family atmosphere, parks and easy access to shopping on 79 and Winchester. Schools are highly rated (e.g., Abbey Rinke) and you will have your pick of homes to choose from. Be patient and let things run their course. You have nothing to lose and everything to gain.

[SDHousehunter]

Ahh, Temecula.

Its been a little while since I posted, however, reading these posts “inspired”me.

I see nothing of value as far as jobs, industry to support the speculative real estate boom that occured out in Riverside/Imperial county other than stripmall retail, liquor stores or public service jobs. This is subprime ground zero and the whole areas will decline in value until rents can cover the mortgage or 2 million illegal immigrants are naturalized, given social security numbers and financed through FHA to buy all the overbuilt crap out there.

In my humble opintion, I see Temecula as the only city of any intrinsic value in Riverside due to its proximity to San Diego County and its job base. Palm Springs would be comparable if not better were it not for the heat.

I am currently renting a beautiful 1900 sq. ft. home for $1,600/month with everything I could ever want. I pay $19,200 a year to rent a home puchased for $440,000 in 2004. Please plug these numbers into a Rent vs Buy calculator and do a comparison.

Prior to this rental we lived in a condo area near Morgan Hill called Auberry Place. In 2005 units for 1,600 sq. ft. were at $389,000. Now they can’t sell any of the units for over $250,000. Do a redfin sales check on the area e.g., Winston Way.

Nationally we are in for another 3 years of pricing declines, however locally here in Riverside noone knows how bad it will get as the rates reset until 2011. The speed and degree of decline is amazing. YOY price declines of 13% do not occur in a vaccuum and do not dissappear overnight. You will have 13% than 8% than 4% than 2% declines as the inventory bleeds out. The question is: Who is going to buy this inventory now that subprime is dead and 60% of the buyers are out of the market?

Now they are requiring downpayments and max house payments of 28% of Gross income. Do you know many people that can fully document 140K salaries?

I can say from personal experience that the automobile industry is getting hammered with no end in sight. My colleagues in the banking industry are in the same boat. Generally automobile and housing data have a historical relationship.

Because I chose to rent I have:

a) No Credit Card debt
b) No Auto payments (2 vehicles 02 and 04)
c) 5K in Student Debt remaining
d) Cash Reserves

Since the housing boom gasoline is up by 50% and my monthly food costs have doubled. (Have you seen the food prices!) My surplus cash reserves have allowed me to take all these hits without losing any sleep and purchase a 6 speaker surround sound system from Magnolia Home theater in my living room and a Culligan Soft Water treatment system. I eat out when I don’t feel like cooking and make sure my family exactly what they need.

Temecula is a wonderful town with a family atmosphere, parks and easy access to shopping on 79 and Winchester. Schools are highly rated (e.g., Abbey Rinke) and you will have your pick of homes to choose from. Be patient and let things run their course. You have nothing to lose and everything to gain.

[SDHousehunter]

Ahh, Temecula.

Its been a little while since I posted, however, reading these posts “inspired”me.

I see nothing of value as far as jobs, industry to support the speculative real estate boom that occured out in Riverside/Imperial county other than stripmall retail, liquor stores or public service jobs. This is subprime ground zero and the whole areas will decline in value until rents can cover the mortgage or 2 million illegal immigrants are naturalized, given social security numbers and financed through FHA to buy all the overbuilt crap out there.

In my humble opintion, I see Temecula as the only city of any intrinsic value in Riverside due to its proximity to San Diego County and its job base. Palm Springs would be comparable if not better were it not for the heat.

I am currently renting a beautiful 1900 sq. ft. home for $1,600/month with everything I could ever want. I pay $19,200 a year to rent a home puchased for $440,000 in 2004. Please plug these numbers into a Rent vs Buy calculator and do a comparison.

Prior to this rental we lived in a condo area near Morgan Hill called Auberry Place. In 2005 units for 1,600 sq. ft. were at $389,000. Now they can’t sell any of the units for over $250,000. Do a redfin sales check on the area e.g., Winston Way.

Nationally we are in for another 3 years of pricing declines, however locally here in Riverside noone knows how bad it will get as the rates reset until 2011. The speed and degree of decline is amazing. YOY price declines of 13% do not occur in a vaccuum and do not dissappear overnight. You will have 13% than 8% than 4% than 2% declines as the inventory bleeds out. The question is: Who is going to buy this inventory now that subprime is dead and 60% of the buyers are out of the market?

Now they are requiring downpayments and max house payments of 28% of Gross income. Do you know many people that can fully document 140K salaries?

I can say from personal experience that the automobile industry is getting hammered with no end in sight. My colleagues in the banking industry are in the same boat. Generally automobile and housing data have a historical relationship.

Because I chose to rent I have:

a) No Credit Card debt
b) No Auto payments (2 vehicles 02 and 04)
c) 5K in Student Debt remaining
d) Cash Reserves

Since the housing boom gasoline is up by 50% and my monthly food costs have doubled. (Have you seen the food prices!) My surplus cash reserves have allowed me to take all these hits without losing any sleep and purchase a 6 speaker surround sound system from Magnolia Home theater in my living room and a Culligan Soft Water treatment system. I eat out when I don’t feel like cooking and make sure my family exactly what they need.

Temecula is a wonderful town with a family atmosphere, parks and easy access to shopping on 79 and Winchester. Schools are highly rated (e.g., Abbey Rinke) and you will have your pick of homes to choose from. Be patient and let things run their course. You have nothing to lose and everything to gain.

[4plexowner]

Some of you need to study some basic economic principles – I’d suggest starting with “prices are set at the margin”

It doesn’t matter how many people own their homes free-and-clear and never intend to sell – it only takes one distressed seller on their street and THEIR PROPERTY GOES DOWN IN VALUE ALSO

Yes, they probably won’t sell because prices decline but they have absolutely NOTHING to do with setting or even influencing current market values

[4plexowner]

Some of you need to study some basic economic principles – I’d suggest starting with “prices are set at the margin”

It doesn’t matter how many people own their homes free-and-clear and never intend to sell – it only takes one distressed seller on their street and THEIR PROPERTY GOES DOWN IN VALUE ALSO

Yes, they probably won’t sell because prices decline but they have absolutely NOTHING to do with setting or even influencing current market values

[4plexowner]

Some of you need to study some basic economic principles – I’d suggest starting with “prices are set at the margin”

It doesn’t matter how many people own their homes free-and-clear and never intend to sell – it only takes one distressed seller on their street and THEIR PROPERTY GOES DOWN IN VALUE ALSO

Yes, they probably won’t sell because prices decline but they have absolutely NOTHING to do with setting or even influencing current market values

[temeculaguy]

5yes, thanks for the props, been away for a while and trying to catch up. Arches, you are right about the tax difference between Morgan and Redhawk and the Redhawk HOA is $20 a month but the housing was primarily built pre-bubble so you may find more foreclosures in Morgan and Redhawk lacks a community pool while Morgan’s is resort like. Morgan is also not in the city and does not have paramedic service, it only matters if you have a heart attack or some other medical calamity but if you do, paramedics are better than EMT’s when you need it. Hopefully Morgan will be annexxed at some point. They are both in the top tier of communities so it’s a coin flip based on what you are looking for but you can’t go wrong with either one.

I’ve grown weary of defending the area to those who have a macro view of the region so I will sit that one out for now, but if you are seriously considering the area, the higher elevation is better. The better tracts are seeing repos in the 400’s for 3000 sq ft and they have been consistently dropping, Rancho Madera, the Fairways, Eagle point, Augusta, Rancho Serrano and many others on the southern part of the loop is the best part of Redhawk, so hang in there a little longer while you familiarize yourself with the area.

[temeculaguy]

5yes, thanks for the props, been away for a while and trying to catch up. Arches, you are right about the tax difference between Morgan and Redhawk and the Redhawk HOA is $20 a month but the housing was primarily built pre-bubble so you may find more foreclosures in Morgan and Redhawk lacks a community pool while Morgan’s is resort like. Morgan is also not in the city and does not have paramedic service, it only matters if you have a heart attack or some other medical calamity but if you do, paramedics are better than EMT’s when you need it. Hopefully Morgan will be annexxed at some point. They are both in the top tier of communities so it’s a coin flip based on what you are looking for but you can’t go wrong with either one.

I’ve grown weary of defending the area to those who have a macro view of the region so I will sit that one out for now, but if you are seriously considering the area, the higher elevation is better. The better tracts are seeing repos in the 400’s for 3000 sq ft and they have been consistently dropping, Rancho Madera, the Fairways, Eagle point, Augusta, Rancho Serrano and many others on the southern part of the loop is the best part of Redhawk, so hang in there a little longer while you familiarize yourself with the area.

[Author]

Posts