rates moving up fast

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

For what it’s worth, we are at the time of year when one of the most reliable seasonal patterns in the futures markets normally kicks in. This is the tendency for 30 yr Bond prices to rise, hence lowering rates. Although no seasonal pattern I know of has been right 100% of the time, this is one of the best and most consistently reliable patterns. I am looking to establish a long position there right now, just trying to dial in a pattern that confirms the seasonals. Commercials have been buying this decline as of the last month or so, which is an added bonus on the long side. Furthermore, the valuation of 30 yr bonds in relation to Gold shows them to be extremely undervalued, and sentiment is excessively bearish. This is a very good setup for a rally in this market.

For these reasons I expect to see a rally very soon in 30 Yr Bond prices.

[Bob]

[quote=Rt.66]Krugman in inflation

“Now, it’s true that the Fed has taken unprecedented actions lately. More specifically, it has been buying lots of debt both from the government and from the private sector, and paying for these purchases by crediting banks with extra reserves. And in ordinary times, this would be highly inflationary: banks, flush with reserves, would increase loans, which would drive up demand, which would push up prices.

But these aren’t ordinary times. Banks aren’t lending out their extra reserves. They’re just sitting on them — in effect, they’re sending the money right back to the Fed. So the Fed isn’t really printing money after all.”[/quote]

There are liberal economists that I respect, and then there are political hacks like Krugman.

The reality is, banks ARE lending again. In fact, some lenders are going so far as to once again offer exotic loans such as interest only, etc..But in today’s world, banks will lend only to applicants that are qualified, and thats the way it should be.

As a result of Fed/bank action, sales activity has increased substantially during the last three months, which has created bidding wars and higher prices.

But the true inflationary effect of the Fed actions will take time to filter throughout the entire economy, and Krugman knows this, but since his objective in this article was to bash banks, he conveniently left out that fact.

[Bob]

[quote=Rt.66]Krugman in inflation

“Now, it’s true that the Fed has taken unprecedented actions lately. More specifically, it has been buying lots of debt both from the government and from the private sector, and paying for these purchases by crediting banks with extra reserves. And in ordinary times, this would be highly inflationary: banks, flush with reserves, would increase loans, which would drive up demand, which would push up prices.

But these aren’t ordinary times. Banks aren’t lending out their extra reserves. They’re just sitting on them — in effect, they’re sending the money right back to the Fed. So the Fed isn’t really printing money after all.”[/quote]

There are liberal economists that I respect, and then there are political hacks like Krugman.

The reality is, banks ARE lending again. In fact, some lenders are going so far as to once again offer exotic loans such as interest only, etc..But in today’s world, banks will lend only to applicants that are qualified, and thats the way it should be.

As a result of Fed/bank action, sales activity has increased substantially during the last three months, which has created bidding wars and higher prices.

But the true inflationary effect of the Fed actions will take time to filter throughout the entire economy, and Krugman knows this, but since his objective in this article was to bash banks, he conveniently left out that fact.

[Bob]

[quote=Rt.66]Krugman in inflation

“Now, it’s true that the Fed has taken unprecedented actions lately. More specifically, it has been buying lots of debt both from the government and from the private sector, and paying for these purchases by crediting banks with extra reserves. And in ordinary times, this would be highly inflationary: banks, flush with reserves, would increase loans, which would drive up demand, which would push up prices.

But these aren’t ordinary times. Banks aren’t lending out their extra reserves. They’re just sitting on them — in effect, they’re sending the money right back to the Fed. So the Fed isn’t really printing money after all.”[/quote]

There are liberal economists that I respect, and then there are political hacks like Krugman.

The reality is, banks ARE lending again. In fact, some lenders are going so far as to once again offer exotic loans such as interest only, etc..But in today’s world, banks will lend only to applicants that are qualified, and thats the way it should be.

As a result of Fed/bank action, sales activity has increased substantially during the last three months, which has created bidding wars and higher prices.

But the true inflationary effect of the Fed actions will take time to filter throughout the entire economy, and Krugman knows this, but since his objective in this article was to bash banks, he conveniently left out that fact.

[Bob]

[quote=Rt.66]Krugman in inflation

“Now, it’s true that the Fed has taken unprecedented actions lately. More specifically, it has been buying lots of debt both from the government and from the private sector, and paying for these purchases by crediting banks with extra reserves. And in ordinary times, this would be highly inflationary: banks, flush with reserves, would increase loans, which would drive up demand, which would push up prices.

But these aren’t ordinary times. Banks aren’t lending out their extra reserves. They’re just sitting on them — in effect, they’re sending the money right back to the Fed. So the Fed isn’t really printing money after all.”[/quote]

There are liberal economists that I respect, and then there are political hacks like Krugman.

The reality is, banks ARE lending again. In fact, some lenders are going so far as to once again offer exotic loans such as interest only, etc..But in today’s world, banks will lend only to applicants that are qualified, and thats the way it should be.

As a result of Fed/bank action, sales activity has increased substantially during the last three months, which has created bidding wars and higher prices.

But the true inflationary effect of the Fed actions will take time to filter throughout the entire economy, and Krugman knows this, but since his objective in this article was to bash banks, he conveniently left out that fact.

[Bob]

[quote=Rt.66]Krugman in inflation

“Now, it’s true that the Fed has taken unprecedented actions lately. More specifically, it has been buying lots of debt both from the government and from the private sector, and paying for these purchases by crediting banks with extra reserves. And in ordinary times, this would be highly inflationary: banks, flush with reserves, would increase loans, which would drive up demand, which would push up prices.

But these aren’t ordinary times. Banks aren’t lending out their extra reserves. They’re just sitting on them — in effect, they’re sending the money right back to the Fed. So the Fed isn’t really printing money after all.”[/quote]

There are liberal economists that I respect, and then there are political hacks like Krugman.

The reality is, banks ARE lending again. In fact, some lenders are going so far as to once again offer exotic loans such as interest only, etc..But in today’s world, banks will lend only to applicants that are qualified, and thats the way it should be.

As a result of Fed/bank action, sales activity has increased substantially during the last three months, which has created bidding wars and higher prices.

But the true inflationary effect of the Fed actions will take time to filter throughout the entire economy, and Krugman knows this, but since his objective in this article was to bash banks, he conveniently left out that fact.

[Bob]

[quote=Chris Scoreboard Johnston]For these reasons I expect to see a rally very soon in 30 Yr Bond prices.[/quote]

What do you estimate mortgage rates will be on a 30yr. fixed by the 4th of July ?

[Bob]

[quote=Chris Scoreboard Johnston]For these reasons I expect to see a rally very soon in 30 Yr Bond prices.[/quote]

What do you estimate mortgage rates will be on a 30yr. fixed by the 4th of July ?

[Bob]

[quote=Chris Scoreboard Johnston]For these reasons I expect to see a rally very soon in 30 Yr Bond prices.[/quote]

What do you estimate mortgage rates will be on a 30yr. fixed by the 4th of July ?

[Bob]

[quote=Chris Scoreboard Johnston]For these reasons I expect to see a rally very soon in 30 Yr Bond prices.[/quote]

What do you estimate mortgage rates will be on a 30yr. fixed by the 4th of July ?

[Bob]

[quote=Chris Scoreboard Johnston]For these reasons I expect to see a rally very soon in 30 Yr Bond prices.[/quote]

What do you estimate mortgage rates will be on a 30yr. fixed by the 4th of July ?

[CA renter]

flu wrote:

What were these payment free months? You could skip a month or something? Hmmm. I never got these…darn, I miss out on all the fun…I just use to get 0 balance transfer deals and then I called and could negotiate a $0 transaction fee for doing it ( I never did it though).
——————-

Sorry I didn’t see your post before.

Yes, payment-free months. They called them “payment holidays” IIRC. I think it was a way to get deadbeats (who pay off every month) to accrue interest/finance charges. Though we didn’t have to pay that month, the interest was accruing, IIRC. I believe they wanted you to take one “holiday” month per year.

Never did take a “payment holiday.” 🙂

[CA renter]

flu wrote:

What were these payment free months? You could skip a month or something? Hmmm. I never got these…darn, I miss out on all the fun…I just use to get 0 balance transfer deals and then I called and could negotiate a $0 transaction fee for doing it ( I never did it though).
——————-

Sorry I didn’t see your post before.

Yes, payment-free months. They called them “payment holidays” IIRC. I think it was a way to get deadbeats (who pay off every month) to accrue interest/finance charges. Though we didn’t have to pay that month, the interest was accruing, IIRC. I believe they wanted you to take one “holiday” month per year.

Never did take a “payment holiday.” 🙂

[CA renter]

flu wrote:

What were these payment free months? You could skip a month or something? Hmmm. I never got these…darn, I miss out on all the fun…I just use to get 0 balance transfer deals and then I called and could negotiate a $0 transaction fee for doing it ( I never did it though).
——————-

Sorry I didn’t see your post before.

Yes, payment-free months. They called them “payment holidays” IIRC. I think it was a way to get deadbeats (who pay off every month) to accrue interest/finance charges. Though we didn’t have to pay that month, the interest was accruing, IIRC. I believe they wanted you to take one “holiday” month per year.

Never did take a “payment holiday.” 🙂

[CA renter]

flu wrote:

What were these payment free months? You could skip a month or something? Hmmm. I never got these…darn, I miss out on all the fun…I just use to get 0 balance transfer deals and then I called and could negotiate a $0 transaction fee for doing it ( I never did it though).
——————-

Sorry I didn’t see your post before.

Yes, payment-free months. They called them “payment holidays” IIRC. I think it was a way to get deadbeats (who pay off every month) to accrue interest/finance charges. Though we didn’t have to pay that month, the interest was accruing, IIRC. I believe they wanted you to take one “holiday” month per year.

Never did take a “payment holiday.” 🙂

[Author]

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