Question for the bulls

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

[quote=sdrealtor]Unemployment is what will take the mid to upper mid tier down another leg. I have seen it already in my neck of the woods. Homeowner loses job and has plenty of reserves. Homeowner hangs in about 6 month slooking for a new job. No job found, its time to sell the house before its too late. Time frames may vary but thats what I have seen.[/quote]

sdr,

While I have seen the same and it will/may continue for a while yet, it is on a much smaller scale to what happened in the more blue collar area’s than your area. If they can hold on to their Job’s the vast majority will hold onto the house even if they are under water 100 or 200 K.

Most have a grasp of statistics and know the odd are in their favor as long as they are not going anywhere for the next five to ten years.

While you may even see 50% off, I would think your going to have to move quick as they will not be on the market long when they do hit.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Also I would add that while you may just get some homes sold at 50% off, unless the builder down the street decides that’s a good price point for his new project (price per sqf), then it will not be a price level I would expect that would last very long (you would need to move on it or lose it IMO).

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Also I would add that while you may just get some homes sold at 50% off, unless the builder down the street decides that’s a good price point for his new project (price per sqf), then it will not be a price level I would expect that would last very long (you would need to move on it or lose it IMO).

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Also I would add that while you may just get some homes sold at 50% off, unless the builder down the street decides that’s a good price point for his new project (price per sqf), then it will not be a price level I would expect that would last very long (you would need to move on it or lose it IMO).

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Also I would add that while you may just get some homes sold at 50% off, unless the builder down the street decides that’s a good price point for his new project (price per sqf), then it will not be a price level I would expect that would last very long (you would need to move on it or lose it IMO).

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Also I would add that while you may just get some homes sold at 50% off, unless the builder down the street decides that’s a good price point for his new project (price per sqf), then it will not be a price level I would expect that would last very long (you would need to move on it or lose it IMO).

[sdrealtor]

NLSG,
I agree with your premise. I think it will be on a smaller scale and spread out over a few years. I have always beleived the next leg down will be 2 to 3 years of 5 to 10% declines. I dont see 50% declines around me at least on a large scale.

Here’s a rough example of how I always beleived it would play out. 900K peak house drops about 20% to 740K between 2005 and 2009. Drops 40K in 2010 700k, then another 35K in 2011 to 665K and another 30K in 2012 to 635K in 2012 for a total drop of approx 30% off peak number.

Most in my area bought pre bubble and many bubble buyers are well heeled. Most will hold on if they can because they value their lifestyle and the life they have for their families. They will hold on as long as they think they can. Of course there will be casualties and the best opportunities will go very quickly. The lowe rprices go, the more the sideline buyers want them and the more they can afford them.

[sdrealtor]

NLSG,
I agree with your premise. I think it will be on a smaller scale and spread out over a few years. I have always beleived the next leg down will be 2 to 3 years of 5 to 10% declines. I dont see 50% declines around me at least on a large scale.

Here’s a rough example of how I always beleived it would play out. 900K peak house drops about 20% to 740K between 2005 and 2009. Drops 40K in 2010 700k, then another 35K in 2011 to 665K and another 30K in 2012 to 635K in 2012 for a total drop of approx 30% off peak number.

Most in my area bought pre bubble and many bubble buyers are well heeled. Most will hold on if they can because they value their lifestyle and the life they have for their families. They will hold on as long as they think they can. Of course there will be casualties and the best opportunities will go very quickly. The lowe rprices go, the more the sideline buyers want them and the more they can afford them.

[sdrealtor]

NLSG,
I agree with your premise. I think it will be on a smaller scale and spread out over a few years. I have always beleived the next leg down will be 2 to 3 years of 5 to 10% declines. I dont see 50% declines around me at least on a large scale.

Here’s a rough example of how I always beleived it would play out. 900K peak house drops about 20% to 740K between 2005 and 2009. Drops 40K in 2010 700k, then another 35K in 2011 to 665K and another 30K in 2012 to 635K in 2012 for a total drop of approx 30% off peak number.

Most in my area bought pre bubble and many bubble buyers are well heeled. Most will hold on if they can because they value their lifestyle and the life they have for their families. They will hold on as long as they think they can. Of course there will be casualties and the best opportunities will go very quickly. The lowe rprices go, the more the sideline buyers want them and the more they can afford them.

[sdrealtor]

NLSG,
I agree with your premise. I think it will be on a smaller scale and spread out over a few years. I have always beleived the next leg down will be 2 to 3 years of 5 to 10% declines. I dont see 50% declines around me at least on a large scale.

Here’s a rough example of how I always beleived it would play out. 900K peak house drops about 20% to 740K between 2005 and 2009. Drops 40K in 2010 700k, then another 35K in 2011 to 665K and another 30K in 2012 to 635K in 2012 for a total drop of approx 30% off peak number.

Most in my area bought pre bubble and many bubble buyers are well heeled. Most will hold on if they can because they value their lifestyle and the life they have for their families. They will hold on as long as they think they can. Of course there will be casualties and the best opportunities will go very quickly. The lowe rprices go, the more the sideline buyers want them and the more they can afford them.

[sdrealtor]

NLSG,
I agree with your premise. I think it will be on a smaller scale and spread out over a few years. I have always beleived the next leg down will be 2 to 3 years of 5 to 10% declines. I dont see 50% declines around me at least on a large scale.

Here’s a rough example of how I always beleived it would play out. 900K peak house drops about 20% to 740K between 2005 and 2009. Drops 40K in 2010 700k, then another 35K in 2011 to 665K and another 30K in 2012 to 635K in 2012 for a total drop of approx 30% off peak number.

Most in my area bought pre bubble and many bubble buyers are well heeled. Most will hold on if they can because they value their lifestyle and the life they have for their families. They will hold on as long as they think they can. Of course there will be casualties and the best opportunities will go very quickly. The lowe rprices go, the more the sideline buyers want them and the more they can afford them.

[Rt.66]

[quote]1. The pre-foreclosure data looks much worse than it actually is. That’s because this data includes defaults on second mortgages. Many people intentionally defaulted on the 2nd mortgages only, knowing that the junior lien holders don’t have the legal right to kick them out. At the same time, these same people negotiate with the primary mortgage lender to lower their mortgage payments. So, a significant percentage of the properties that are in default will not end up as REOs.
[/quote]

Please document this phenomenon. I study RE a lot and the first I heard of this was from the Realtor on the other thread. Sorry that does not make it postable fact.

So banks have turned on each other? Traditionally banks defend each other’s right to collect to the end. The reason we have credit reporting agencies is so a bank you want a loan from can find out if you’ve screwed one of the brethren.

It’s that simple huh? Just stop paying the second, get a loan mod from the first and lifes peachy? Wow. Does the bank holding the first consider that the property is still encumbered by the second while they are negotiating this killer new low mod payment or does the second just hang their head and walk away?

Not saying it’s not happening but I’d like to see some proof it’s a regular occurrence. Sounds whack.

[Rt.66]

[quote]1. The pre-foreclosure data looks much worse than it actually is. That’s because this data includes defaults on second mortgages. Many people intentionally defaulted on the 2nd mortgages only, knowing that the junior lien holders don’t have the legal right to kick them out. At the same time, these same people negotiate with the primary mortgage lender to lower their mortgage payments. So, a significant percentage of the properties that are in default will not end up as REOs.
[/quote]

Please document this phenomenon. I study RE a lot and the first I heard of this was from the Realtor on the other thread. Sorry that does not make it postable fact.

So banks have turned on each other? Traditionally banks defend each other’s right to collect to the end. The reason we have credit reporting agencies is so a bank you want a loan from can find out if you’ve screwed one of the brethren.

It’s that simple huh? Just stop paying the second, get a loan mod from the first and lifes peachy? Wow. Does the bank holding the first consider that the property is still encumbered by the second while they are negotiating this killer new low mod payment or does the second just hang their head and walk away?

Not saying it’s not happening but I’d like to see some proof it’s a regular occurrence. Sounds whack.

[Rt.66]

[quote]1. The pre-foreclosure data looks much worse than it actually is. That’s because this data includes defaults on second mortgages. Many people intentionally defaulted on the 2nd mortgages only, knowing that the junior lien holders don’t have the legal right to kick them out. At the same time, these same people negotiate with the primary mortgage lender to lower their mortgage payments. So, a significant percentage of the properties that are in default will not end up as REOs.
[/quote]

Please document this phenomenon. I study RE a lot and the first I heard of this was from the Realtor on the other thread. Sorry that does not make it postable fact.

So banks have turned on each other? Traditionally banks defend each other’s right to collect to the end. The reason we have credit reporting agencies is so a bank you want a loan from can find out if you’ve screwed one of the brethren.

It’s that simple huh? Just stop paying the second, get a loan mod from the first and lifes peachy? Wow. Does the bank holding the first consider that the property is still encumbered by the second while they are negotiating this killer new low mod payment or does the second just hang their head and walk away?

Not saying it’s not happening but I’d like to see some proof it’s a regular occurrence. Sounds whack.

[Rt.66]

[quote]1. The pre-foreclosure data looks much worse than it actually is. That’s because this data includes defaults on second mortgages. Many people intentionally defaulted on the 2nd mortgages only, knowing that the junior lien holders don’t have the legal right to kick them out. At the same time, these same people negotiate with the primary mortgage lender to lower their mortgage payments. So, a significant percentage of the properties that are in default will not end up as REOs.
[/quote]

Please document this phenomenon. I study RE a lot and the first I heard of this was from the Realtor on the other thread. Sorry that does not make it postable fact.

So banks have turned on each other? Traditionally banks defend each other’s right to collect to the end. The reason we have credit reporting agencies is so a bank you want a loan from can find out if you’ve screwed one of the brethren.

It’s that simple huh? Just stop paying the second, get a loan mod from the first and lifes peachy? Wow. Does the bank holding the first consider that the property is still encumbered by the second while they are negotiating this killer new low mod payment or does the second just hang their head and walk away?

Not saying it’s not happening but I’d like to see some proof it’s a regular occurrence. Sounds whack.

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