Query on Carmel Valley

[Coronita]

Bluemoon,

I'm not a RE pro, and there are a few realtors that post here that are much more accurate. So take my opinion with a grain of salt. I can't tell you how much I think things will fall. futher. BUT, I can tell what I think prices at Soleil/Bordeaux should be relative to everything else in Carmel Valley.

Places say in Torrey Hills have reached prices near early 2004, I'd say around March 2004. What I mean by this is the homes that are priced at this level seem to move, above which seems to meet some resistance. There are a bunch of other homes with sellers still priced in the "smoking crack range", but the ones that are selling seem to be priced at this early 2004 level. Disclaimer, my data point is a small subset of the activity i see in torrey hills, using my own purchase in early 2004 as a reference and all the comps I collected around that time.

Now, specifically for Soleil and Bordeaux, which is off 56. Imho home prices should be at least at the early 2004 pricing + slightly discounted more versus Torrey Hills. Back in 2004, relatively speaking when demand was high in Torrey Hills, Bordeaux/Soleil wasn't nearly as crazy, because some had considered a slight discount for being off 56. Some who ended up buying in Bordeaux/Soleil did so because they were sick of getting into bidding wars in TorreyHills, and wanted something slightly bigger at the tradeoff of being of 56. Recently something around 2700-2800 sqft closed in TorreyHills for about $890k, which was a decently good home in a relatively good location. Therefore, I'd say something 2700-2800 sqft in Bordeaux/Soleil would be acceptably priced in the 820-850k range for me right now.

The other thing to consider…There are a lot more first time buyers who bought during the crazy bubble in Soleil/Bordeaux than there were probably in Torrey Hills, because Soleil/Bordeaux were newer communities. That's 2004,2005,2006. So I'd expect more desperate sellers over there. That's something to consider as well. I'd say homes thar are trying to sell at prices in 2005 or 2006 are still "smoking crack". And looking at some of the comps in Soleil/Bordeaux, it seems like there are quite a few of crack smokers.

As I expected, in some of the newer communities, I've been seeing a lot more activity. And yes, this includes Saratoga in the new Pardee Community in CV. Checking the MLS, a lot more people listing these days.

Personally, I'm expecting the acceptable selling price of my own home to fall below my 2004 purchase price within 4-6 months. I have a slight advantage over others, because we were able to slightly negotiate below "market value" at the time slightly.

 

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—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[SD Realtor]

“I’m not a RE pro, and there are a few realtors that post here that are much more accurate.”

You should play one on tv FLU! heheheheh…

Your analysis is pretty darn accurate. Not much speculation and pretty factual. I could not agree with your statements more. I could write a few paragraphs but they will mimic what you said. The picture gets cloudier if we start to think about external factors such as employment or high interest rates. These factors would obviously push prices down faster. I think in general CV will continue to fall. Note I use the word continue because it has gone down. It just is slow… This area “could” be hit pretty hard by what the second wave in late 09 and 10. The thing is, that this second wave will have resets in that timeframe but they may not materialize into distress sales until a year after that.

It is hard to say right now. Alternately can we inflate/bailout our way out? Can or will the government force lenders to to writedowns yet keep homeowners who have gainful employment and strong salaries to stay in the homes using principal reductions? Don’t know. It is one thing to let the lender foreclose on a guy who makes 40k a year and has a 3k payment. Wonder about the guy who has a 4k payment that goes to a 6k payment and makes 120k a year? Just thinking out loud.

Anyways Bluemoon I am sorry I can’t help you. I have some clients who are pretty active in CV and our lowballs are getting snubbed right now. The longer you wait, the better off you will be… but you may have to wait awhile if you want to get a screaming deal.

[SD Realtor]

“I’m not a RE pro, and there are a few realtors that post here that are much more accurate.”

You should play one on tv FLU! heheheheh…

Your analysis is pretty darn accurate. Not much speculation and pretty factual. I could not agree with your statements more. I could write a few paragraphs but they will mimic what you said. The picture gets cloudier if we start to think about external factors such as employment or high interest rates. These factors would obviously push prices down faster. I think in general CV will continue to fall. Note I use the word continue because it has gone down. It just is slow… This area “could” be hit pretty hard by what the second wave in late 09 and 10. The thing is, that this second wave will have resets in that timeframe but they may not materialize into distress sales until a year after that.

It is hard to say right now. Alternately can we inflate/bailout our way out? Can or will the government force lenders to to writedowns yet keep homeowners who have gainful employment and strong salaries to stay in the homes using principal reductions? Don’t know. It is one thing to let the lender foreclose on a guy who makes 40k a year and has a 3k payment. Wonder about the guy who has a 4k payment that goes to a 6k payment and makes 120k a year? Just thinking out loud.

Anyways Bluemoon I am sorry I can’t help you. I have some clients who are pretty active in CV and our lowballs are getting snubbed right now. The longer you wait, the better off you will be… but you may have to wait awhile if you want to get a screaming deal.

[SD Realtor]

“I’m not a RE pro, and there are a few realtors that post here that are much more accurate.”

You should play one on tv FLU! heheheheh…

Your analysis is pretty darn accurate. Not much speculation and pretty factual. I could not agree with your statements more. I could write a few paragraphs but they will mimic what you said. The picture gets cloudier if we start to think about external factors such as employment or high interest rates. These factors would obviously push prices down faster. I think in general CV will continue to fall. Note I use the word continue because it has gone down. It just is slow… This area “could” be hit pretty hard by what the second wave in late 09 and 10. The thing is, that this second wave will have resets in that timeframe but they may not materialize into distress sales until a year after that.

It is hard to say right now. Alternately can we inflate/bailout our way out? Can or will the government force lenders to to writedowns yet keep homeowners who have gainful employment and strong salaries to stay in the homes using principal reductions? Don’t know. It is one thing to let the lender foreclose on a guy who makes 40k a year and has a 3k payment. Wonder about the guy who has a 4k payment that goes to a 6k payment and makes 120k a year? Just thinking out loud.

Anyways Bluemoon I am sorry I can’t help you. I have some clients who are pretty active in CV and our lowballs are getting snubbed right now. The longer you wait, the better off you will be… but you may have to wait awhile if you want to get a screaming deal.

[SD Realtor]

“I’m not a RE pro, and there are a few realtors that post here that are much more accurate.”

You should play one on tv FLU! heheheheh…

Your analysis is pretty darn accurate. Not much speculation and pretty factual. I could not agree with your statements more. I could write a few paragraphs but they will mimic what you said. The picture gets cloudier if we start to think about external factors such as employment or high interest rates. These factors would obviously push prices down faster. I think in general CV will continue to fall. Note I use the word continue because it has gone down. It just is slow… This area “could” be hit pretty hard by what the second wave in late 09 and 10. The thing is, that this second wave will have resets in that timeframe but they may not materialize into distress sales until a year after that.

It is hard to say right now. Alternately can we inflate/bailout our way out? Can or will the government force lenders to to writedowns yet keep homeowners who have gainful employment and strong salaries to stay in the homes using principal reductions? Don’t know. It is one thing to let the lender foreclose on a guy who makes 40k a year and has a 3k payment. Wonder about the guy who has a 4k payment that goes to a 6k payment and makes 120k a year? Just thinking out loud.

Anyways Bluemoon I am sorry I can’t help you. I have some clients who are pretty active in CV and our lowballs are getting snubbed right now. The longer you wait, the better off you will be… but you may have to wait awhile if you want to get a screaming deal.

[SD Realtor]

“I’m not a RE pro, and there are a few realtors that post here that are much more accurate.”

You should play one on tv FLU! heheheheh…

Your analysis is pretty darn accurate. Not much speculation and pretty factual. I could not agree with your statements more. I could write a few paragraphs but they will mimic what you said. The picture gets cloudier if we start to think about external factors such as employment or high interest rates. These factors would obviously push prices down faster. I think in general CV will continue to fall. Note I use the word continue because it has gone down. It just is slow… This area “could” be hit pretty hard by what the second wave in late 09 and 10. The thing is, that this second wave will have resets in that timeframe but they may not materialize into distress sales until a year after that.

It is hard to say right now. Alternately can we inflate/bailout our way out? Can or will the government force lenders to to writedowns yet keep homeowners who have gainful employment and strong salaries to stay in the homes using principal reductions? Don’t know. It is one thing to let the lender foreclose on a guy who makes 40k a year and has a 3k payment. Wonder about the guy who has a 4k payment that goes to a 6k payment and makes 120k a year? Just thinking out loud.

Anyways Bluemoon I am sorry I can’t help you. I have some clients who are pretty active in CV and our lowballs are getting snubbed right now. The longer you wait, the better off you will be… but you may have to wait awhile if you want to get a screaming deal.

[Anonymous]

bluemoon, IMHO if you wait a year then you will probably be able to get it 0-20%+ less, depending on how the economy goes. I think it is safe bet that it won’t go up.

I don’t think that Pacific Highlands is a place that will remain propped up by the small number of high-net-worth folks who can buy wherever they want.

I think we all got used to seeing absurd prices and now that they are merely stupid we think that these are “deals”, but in reality we still are far from out of the woods yet. In my opinion Pacific Highlands is a bad bet because it hasn’t fallen much yet, but looks like it will eventually.

Just my opinion…

[Anonymous]

bluemoon, IMHO if you wait a year then you will probably be able to get it 0-20%+ less, depending on how the economy goes. I think it is safe bet that it won’t go up.

I don’t think that Pacific Highlands is a place that will remain propped up by the small number of high-net-worth folks who can buy wherever they want.

I think we all got used to seeing absurd prices and now that they are merely stupid we think that these are “deals”, but in reality we still are far from out of the woods yet. In my opinion Pacific Highlands is a bad bet because it hasn’t fallen much yet, but looks like it will eventually.

Just my opinion…

[Anonymous]

bluemoon, IMHO if you wait a year then you will probably be able to get it 0-20%+ less, depending on how the economy goes. I think it is safe bet that it won’t go up.

I don’t think that Pacific Highlands is a place that will remain propped up by the small number of high-net-worth folks who can buy wherever they want.

I think we all got used to seeing absurd prices and now that they are merely stupid we think that these are “deals”, but in reality we still are far from out of the woods yet. In my opinion Pacific Highlands is a bad bet because it hasn’t fallen much yet, but looks like it will eventually.

Just my opinion…

[Anonymous]

bluemoon, IMHO if you wait a year then you will probably be able to get it 0-20%+ less, depending on how the economy goes. I think it is safe bet that it won’t go up.

I don’t think that Pacific Highlands is a place that will remain propped up by the small number of high-net-worth folks who can buy wherever they want.

I think we all got used to seeing absurd prices and now that they are merely stupid we think that these are “deals”, but in reality we still are far from out of the woods yet. In my opinion Pacific Highlands is a bad bet because it hasn’t fallen much yet, but looks like it will eventually.

Just my opinion…

[Anonymous]

bluemoon, IMHO if you wait a year then you will probably be able to get it 0-20%+ less, depending on how the economy goes. I think it is safe bet that it won’t go up.

I don’t think that Pacific Highlands is a place that will remain propped up by the small number of high-net-worth folks who can buy wherever they want.

I think we all got used to seeing absurd prices and now that they are merely stupid we think that these are “deals”, but in reality we still are far from out of the woods yet. In my opinion Pacific Highlands is a bad bet because it hasn’t fallen much yet, but looks like it will eventually.

Just my opinion…

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