Query on Carmel Valley

[bluemoon]

I apologize upfront for yet another post on the topic of Carmel Valley, but here goes…

I am thinking about making an offer on a house in the Pacific Highlands Ranch Area (Soleil/Bordeaux).

I realize that prices are likely to decline more. I’d like to solicit opinions on how much more you feel it will go down in the next year. (For example, a 2700 sqft house just sold in the area for high 800k’s.) Pro’s to buying now are the new rec. center., the new jumbo conforming rate, and low mortgage rates at this time.

Thanks in advance.

[SDEngineer]

Hard to predict. It seems likely to me that CV will probably continue a slow downward slide over the next year or so. The prices in that area seem to be primarily affected by the price declines in neighboring areas, not yet from problems within the area itself. I doubt many subprime loans were made in that area, so it doesn’t have the mass foreclosures driving down prices that areas like Mira Mesa have.

I’d worry though, about the fallout from the alt-A stated income, interest only, and negative amortization loans, which won’t really hit the fan until late 2009/2010 timeframe (from the charts I’ve seen). CV I believe had a VERY large proportion of mortgages using those types of toxic loans in recent years.

There’s still a lot of bubble to bleed out in the higher end areas from all the charts I’ve seen here, and because they are the most desireable areas, I think they’re also the most likely to bottom late.

[SDEngineer]

Hard to predict. It seems likely to me that CV will probably continue a slow downward slide over the next year or so. The prices in that area seem to be primarily affected by the price declines in neighboring areas, not yet from problems within the area itself. I doubt many subprime loans were made in that area, so it doesn’t have the mass foreclosures driving down prices that areas like Mira Mesa have.

I’d worry though, about the fallout from the alt-A stated income, interest only, and negative amortization loans, which won’t really hit the fan until late 2009/2010 timeframe (from the charts I’ve seen). CV I believe had a VERY large proportion of mortgages using those types of toxic loans in recent years.

There’s still a lot of bubble to bleed out in the higher end areas from all the charts I’ve seen here, and because they are the most desireable areas, I think they’re also the most likely to bottom late.

[SDEngineer]

Hard to predict. It seems likely to me that CV will probably continue a slow downward slide over the next year or so. The prices in that area seem to be primarily affected by the price declines in neighboring areas, not yet from problems within the area itself. I doubt many subprime loans were made in that area, so it doesn’t have the mass foreclosures driving down prices that areas like Mira Mesa have.

I’d worry though, about the fallout from the alt-A stated income, interest only, and negative amortization loans, which won’t really hit the fan until late 2009/2010 timeframe (from the charts I’ve seen). CV I believe had a VERY large proportion of mortgages using those types of toxic loans in recent years.

There’s still a lot of bubble to bleed out in the higher end areas from all the charts I’ve seen here, and because they are the most desireable areas, I think they’re also the most likely to bottom late.

[SDEngineer]

Hard to predict. It seems likely to me that CV will probably continue a slow downward slide over the next year or so. The prices in that area seem to be primarily affected by the price declines in neighboring areas, not yet from problems within the area itself. I doubt many subprime loans were made in that area, so it doesn’t have the mass foreclosures driving down prices that areas like Mira Mesa have.

I’d worry though, about the fallout from the alt-A stated income, interest only, and negative amortization loans, which won’t really hit the fan until late 2009/2010 timeframe (from the charts I’ve seen). CV I believe had a VERY large proportion of mortgages using those types of toxic loans in recent years.

There’s still a lot of bubble to bleed out in the higher end areas from all the charts I’ve seen here, and because they are the most desireable areas, I think they’re also the most likely to bottom late.

[SDEngineer]

Hard to predict. It seems likely to me that CV will probably continue a slow downward slide over the next year or so. The prices in that area seem to be primarily affected by the price declines in neighboring areas, not yet from problems within the area itself. I doubt many subprime loans were made in that area, so it doesn’t have the mass foreclosures driving down prices that areas like Mira Mesa have.

I’d worry though, about the fallout from the alt-A stated income, interest only, and negative amortization loans, which won’t really hit the fan until late 2009/2010 timeframe (from the charts I’ve seen). CV I believe had a VERY large proportion of mortgages using those types of toxic loans in recent years.

There’s still a lot of bubble to bleed out in the higher end areas from all the charts I’ve seen here, and because they are the most desireable areas, I think they’re also the most likely to bottom late.

[fsbo]

I have some friends who used to monitor CV closely now turn around to its neighboring areas (within 10~20 mins driving distance) mainly because of the difference in price.
For single family house, I would expect ~10% drop by the end of this year, 10% or more next year.

[fsbo]

I have some friends who used to monitor CV closely now turn around to its neighboring areas (within 10~20 mins driving distance) mainly because of the difference in price.
For single family house, I would expect ~10% drop by the end of this year, 10% or more next year.

[fsbo]

I have some friends who used to monitor CV closely now turn around to its neighboring areas (within 10~20 mins driving distance) mainly because of the difference in price.
For single family house, I would expect ~10% drop by the end of this year, 10% or more next year.

[fsbo]

I have some friends who used to monitor CV closely now turn around to its neighboring areas (within 10~20 mins driving distance) mainly because of the difference in price.
For single family house, I would expect ~10% drop by the end of this year, 10% or more next year.

[fsbo]

I have some friends who used to monitor CV closely now turn around to its neighboring areas (within 10~20 mins driving distance) mainly because of the difference in price.
For single family house, I would expect ~10% drop by the end of this year, 10% or more next year.

[Coronita]

Bluemoon,

I'm not a RE pro, and there are a few realtors that post here that are much more accurate. So take my opinion with a grain of salt. I can't tell you how much I think things will fall. futher. BUT, I can tell what I think prices at Soleil/Bordeaux should be relative to everything else in Carmel Valley.

Places say in Torrey Hills have reached prices near early 2004, I'd say around March 2004. What I mean by this is the homes that are priced at this level seem to move, above which seems to meet some resistance. There are a bunch of other homes with sellers still priced in the "smoking crack range", but the ones that are selling seem to be priced at this early 2004 level. Disclaimer, my data point is a small subset of the activity i see in torrey hills, using my own purchase in early 2004 as a reference and all the comps I collected around that time.

Now, specifically for Soleil and Bordeaux, which is off 56. Imho home prices should be at least at the early 2004 pricing + slightly discounted more versus Torrey Hills. Back in 2004, relatively speaking when demand was high in Torrey Hills, Bordeaux/Soleil wasn't nearly as crazy, because some had considered a slight discount for being off 56. Some who ended up buying in Bordeaux/Soleil did so because they were sick of getting into bidding wars in TorreyHills, and wanted something slightly bigger at the tradeoff of being of 56. Recently something around 2700-2800 sqft closed in TorreyHills for about $890k, which was a decently good home in a relatively good location. Therefore, I'd say something 2700-2800 sqft in Bordeaux/Soleil would be acceptably priced in the 820-850k range for me right now.

The other thing to consider…There are a lot more first time buyers who bought during the crazy bubble in Soleil/Bordeaux than there were probably in Torrey Hills, because Soleil/Bordeaux were newer communities. That's 2004,2005,2006. So I'd expect more desperate sellers over there. That's something to consider as well. I'd say homes thar are trying to sell at prices in 2005 or 2006 are still "smoking crack". And looking at some of the comps in Soleil/Bordeaux, it seems like there are quite a few of crack smokers.

As I expected, in some of the newer communities, I've been seeing a lot more activity. And yes, this includes Saratoga in the new Pardee Community in CV. Checking the MLS, a lot more people listing these days.

Personally, I'm expecting the acceptable selling price of my own home to fall below my 2004 purchase price within 4-6 months. I have a slight advantage over others, because we were able to slightly negotiate below "market value" at the time slightly.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Bluemoon,

I'm not a RE pro, and there are a few realtors that post here that are much more accurate. So take my opinion with a grain of salt. I can't tell you how much I think things will fall. futher. BUT, I can tell what I think prices at Soleil/Bordeaux should be relative to everything else in Carmel Valley.

Places say in Torrey Hills have reached prices near early 2004, I'd say around March 2004. What I mean by this is the homes that are priced at this level seem to move, above which seems to meet some resistance. There are a bunch of other homes with sellers still priced in the "smoking crack range", but the ones that are selling seem to be priced at this early 2004 level. Disclaimer, my data point is a small subset of the activity i see in torrey hills, using my own purchase in early 2004 as a reference and all the comps I collected around that time.

Now, specifically for Soleil and Bordeaux, which is off 56. Imho home prices should be at least at the early 2004 pricing + slightly discounted more versus Torrey Hills. Back in 2004, relatively speaking when demand was high in Torrey Hills, Bordeaux/Soleil wasn't nearly as crazy, because some had considered a slight discount for being off 56. Some who ended up buying in Bordeaux/Soleil did so because they were sick of getting into bidding wars in TorreyHills, and wanted something slightly bigger at the tradeoff of being of 56. Recently something around 2700-2800 sqft closed in TorreyHills for about $890k, which was a decently good home in a relatively good location. Therefore, I'd say something 2700-2800 sqft in Bordeaux/Soleil would be acceptably priced in the 820-850k range for me right now.

The other thing to consider…There are a lot more first time buyers who bought during the crazy bubble in Soleil/Bordeaux than there were probably in Torrey Hills, because Soleil/Bordeaux were newer communities. That's 2004,2005,2006. So I'd expect more desperate sellers over there. That's something to consider as well. I'd say homes thar are trying to sell at prices in 2005 or 2006 are still "smoking crack". And looking at some of the comps in Soleil/Bordeaux, it seems like there are quite a few of crack smokers.

As I expected, in some of the newer communities, I've been seeing a lot more activity. And yes, this includes Saratoga in the new Pardee Community in CV. Checking the MLS, a lot more people listing these days.

Personally, I'm expecting the acceptable selling price of my own home to fall below my 2004 purchase price within 4-6 months. I have a slight advantage over others, because we were able to slightly negotiate below "market value" at the time slightly.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Bluemoon,

I'm not a RE pro, and there are a few realtors that post here that are much more accurate. So take my opinion with a grain of salt. I can't tell you how much I think things will fall. futher. BUT, I can tell what I think prices at Soleil/Bordeaux should be relative to everything else in Carmel Valley.

Places say in Torrey Hills have reached prices near early 2004, I'd say around March 2004. What I mean by this is the homes that are priced at this level seem to move, above which seems to meet some resistance. There are a bunch of other homes with sellers still priced in the "smoking crack range", but the ones that are selling seem to be priced at this early 2004 level. Disclaimer, my data point is a small subset of the activity i see in torrey hills, using my own purchase in early 2004 as a reference and all the comps I collected around that time.

Now, specifically for Soleil and Bordeaux, which is off 56. Imho home prices should be at least at the early 2004 pricing + slightly discounted more versus Torrey Hills. Back in 2004, relatively speaking when demand was high in Torrey Hills, Bordeaux/Soleil wasn't nearly as crazy, because some had considered a slight discount for being off 56. Some who ended up buying in Bordeaux/Soleil did so because they were sick of getting into bidding wars in TorreyHills, and wanted something slightly bigger at the tradeoff of being of 56. Recently something around 2700-2800 sqft closed in TorreyHills for about $890k, which was a decently good home in a relatively good location. Therefore, I'd say something 2700-2800 sqft in Bordeaux/Soleil would be acceptably priced in the 820-850k range for me right now.

The other thing to consider…There are a lot more first time buyers who bought during the crazy bubble in Soleil/Bordeaux than there were probably in Torrey Hills, because Soleil/Bordeaux were newer communities. That's 2004,2005,2006. So I'd expect more desperate sellers over there. That's something to consider as well. I'd say homes thar are trying to sell at prices in 2005 or 2006 are still "smoking crack". And looking at some of the comps in Soleil/Bordeaux, it seems like there are quite a few of crack smokers.

As I expected, in some of the newer communities, I've been seeing a lot more activity. And yes, this includes Saratoga in the new Pardee Community in CV. Checking the MLS, a lot more people listing these days.

Personally, I'm expecting the acceptable selling price of my own home to fall below my 2004 purchase price within 4-6 months. I have a slight advantage over others, because we were able to slightly negotiate below "market value" at the time slightly.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Bluemoon,

I'm not a RE pro, and there are a few realtors that post here that are much more accurate. So take my opinion with a grain of salt. I can't tell you how much I think things will fall. futher. BUT, I can tell what I think prices at Soleil/Bordeaux should be relative to everything else in Carmel Valley.

Places say in Torrey Hills have reached prices near early 2004, I'd say around March 2004. What I mean by this is the homes that are priced at this level seem to move, above which seems to meet some resistance. There are a bunch of other homes with sellers still priced in the "smoking crack range", but the ones that are selling seem to be priced at this early 2004 level. Disclaimer, my data point is a small subset of the activity i see in torrey hills, using my own purchase in early 2004 as a reference and all the comps I collected around that time.

Now, specifically for Soleil and Bordeaux, which is off 56. Imho home prices should be at least at the early 2004 pricing + slightly discounted more versus Torrey Hills. Back in 2004, relatively speaking when demand was high in Torrey Hills, Bordeaux/Soleil wasn't nearly as crazy, because some had considered a slight discount for being off 56. Some who ended up buying in Bordeaux/Soleil did so because they were sick of getting into bidding wars in TorreyHills, and wanted something slightly bigger at the tradeoff of being of 56. Recently something around 2700-2800 sqft closed in TorreyHills for about $890k, which was a decently good home in a relatively good location. Therefore, I'd say something 2700-2800 sqft in Bordeaux/Soleil would be acceptably priced in the 820-850k range for me right now.

The other thing to consider…There are a lot more first time buyers who bought during the crazy bubble in Soleil/Bordeaux than there were probably in Torrey Hills, because Soleil/Bordeaux were newer communities. That's 2004,2005,2006. So I'd expect more desperate sellers over there. That's something to consider as well. I'd say homes thar are trying to sell at prices in 2005 or 2006 are still "smoking crack". And looking at some of the comps in Soleil/Bordeaux, it seems like there are quite a few of crack smokers.

As I expected, in some of the newer communities, I've been seeing a lot more activity. And yes, this includes Saratoga in the new Pardee Community in CV. Checking the MLS, a lot more people listing these days.

Personally, I'm expecting the acceptable selling price of my own home to fall below my 2004 purchase price within 4-6 months. I have a slight advantage over others, because we were able to slightly negotiate below "market value" at the time slightly.

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Author]

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