Population STAMPEDE!!! Look out!

[PerryChase]

Looks like LA and SD are loosing domestic population.
I don’t think that immigrants will be buying homes immediately. They have to save up for a few years first.

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-migration041807-f,0,7918254.flash?coll=la-home-headlines

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-maricopa24apr24,0,6596176.story?coll=la-home-headlines

[Cow_tipping]

LA is also actually losing immigrant population.
Cool.
Cow_tipping.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

“We’re averaging 9,000 Californians a month changing their [driver’s] licenses to Arizona. To me, that’s a phenomenal number.”

Wow, maybe they should convert the I-8 to East-bound-only once you pass Alpine.

[Djshakes]

“The reason that both the average and median prices have increased during the past year is that the sales distribution has shifted dramatically. The low end of the market has been crushed by the loss of buyers due to the increasing interest rates, especially the ARMs. The net effect is that the mix of homes sold has proportionally more expensive homes than previously. So comparing the average/median price now to the average/median price a year ago is like comparing an apple to an orange. Price reductions are real and ongoing and increasing.”

La_renter. Can you explain this a little more for a newb? Thanks. I want to be able to use this as a rebuttle when everyone denies that homes are dropping because the “median” prices haven’t dropped.

[Cow_tipping]

Its happening in charlotte and other towns too.
2005’s median house was 500K say and it was a 1500 sqft old crap house on a 4000 sqft lot in a OK area with OK schools.
Today’s highest selling house is also 500K, but its a new 2500 sqft house on a 5000 sqft lot in a great area and great schools.
Its the same 500K but the house is entirely different.
Cool.
Cow_tipping.

[Anonymous]

Djshakes, here is a simple example of falling prices but median and mean prices rising. First year – 7 houses sell: 1,000,000
900,000
700,000
600,000 <- median is at 600k and mean is 689k
575,000
550,000
500,000

Now say that the next year, there are only 3 houses that sell. Additionally, the houses on the market are all 20% less than similar houses last year, so the 1m house is now 800k etc…
800,000
720,000 <- median is 720k and mean is 693k
560,000

You see this because the more expensive houses are the ones represented, since the pool of people entering the market and buying the cheaper houses has dried up. You see an increase in the median and mean, even though there has been a 20% haircut in prices.

[temeculaguy]

To use an anology, when you eliminate any group of customers, some specific numbers go up and others go down. Let’s say grocery stores tracked the average grocery bill and it was $50.00 and then they posted a sign that only people with more than three children at home can shop at that store. Then the average grocery bill goes to $100 but total sales drop. Why? Because single people buy less groceries. The store has lower overall sales and less profit but the averge amount per customer went up.

Eliminate or reduce people with bad credit, no down payment or first time buyers from the game and median price goes up because those people would have bought cheaper houses, bringing down the median.

Look at the reports on any financial website from yesterday and you will see total sales hit a 20 year low, down 9% in the west where the weather was fine. This is a temporary situation with the median because, unlike groceries, expensive homes are purchased by people who generally sell medium priced homes and the medium come from the cheap. The cheap will be hit now, the medium are in the “on deck circle” and the expensive is still sitting in the dugout, but they will get their turn at bat. But since I delved into another analogy, the pitcher loses a little strength with each batter so the expensive homes get to face him when he’s a little more tired and they are the better of the three at bat so it’s not entirely one sided.

The trouble is, this pitcher is 9 feet tall, 300 lbs and is on a steroid nobody has ever heard of. The strength and size of this pitcher (bubble) isn’t just 5% or 10% better than the last guy, it’s double, 180 mph fastball has a lot of us scared. Batter number one (sub prime) snapped his leg in half just walking to the plate. What’s next?

[temeculaguy]

I was wrong, it is far worse, numbers came out today, the west was down 29% in total sales from March 2006

http://paper-money.blogspot.com/

[Author]

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