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temeculaguy.
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June 4, 2006 at 7:29 AM #6666June 4, 2006 at 8:14 AM #26163
LookoutBelow
ParticipantYeah right……the only stampede coming here to SoCal are people that run weedeaters and push lawnmowers for a living.
They arent the kind of population increases that a 1st world city looks to for positive growth, these people dont buy new Ford Cars, buy houses with real down payments, work at jobs that “add” to a society. No, these are 3rd worlders who are here to gaff off the system and degrade the current infrastructure and make it infinitely more dangerous to the previous residents.
Population stampede my arse ! Hahahahaaaaa !!!! …”Sheeple”…sheesh….. My father was right so many years ago when he told me:
“Never OVERestinmate the intelligence of the American people” This story is “happy talk” or maybe “propaganda” did the person who wrote it have a spanish surname ?June 4, 2006 at 10:54 AM #26167lostkitty
ParticipantIt bothers me that these same stories show up again and again… People believe it, and make huge decisions based on the articles full of half-truths. It is totally misleading to claim that housing prices climbed due to a “population stampede” into LA – and that there is no end in site.
June 4, 2006 at 11:49 AM #26172LA_Renter
ParticipantI quickly wrote this e-mail to the author of this article ([email protected]). There are obviuosly many more points to make but I just had to say something.
Diane,
In my opinion this article is totally misleading and does not reflect the reality of the current market conditions in Southern California. There is no mention of the home price to income and home price to rent ratios. There is no mention of the ballooning inventories in California that show no signs of abating. The record inventory for San Diego was in June 95 at 19,250 (bottom of last downturn), according to zipreality right now they have 21,290. The record inventory adjusted for population growth is 22,174. They should break that record in a month or two. Orange County inventory has increased from 7245 units on 1/2/2006 to 15,048 on 5/30/2006 – DOUBLED, Los Angeles county is adding 3000 to 4000 units to inventory every month. Unit sales are down throughout the entire region.
“The main culprit behind the latest price hike is the unrelenting demand for limited housing, a problem fueled by record-low mortgage-interest rates, adjustable-rate financing and a population stampede into Southern California that shows no sign of slowing.”
If this is true then why are areas of Southern California approaching RECORD HIGH inventories. That statement is very backward looking. I request that you being a journalist try this exercise, go to UHAUL.com, find a truck and get a quote of how much it cost to move into California verses moving out of California, I used Irvine and San Antonio. It is 1000% more to rent that UHAUL out of California than to move into the state, 1000%. What does that say? I am not saying the structural problems outlined in this article do not exist, they do. What I am saying is you can only take the structural problems of building restrictions and immigration so far. Yes they will make homes more expensive but the rate of appreciation in the bubble areas such as California transcend any of these structural problems. I am very surprised that the LA Times would run this article now. The implication is that current home valuations in the area are economically justified, the empirical data of rising inventories, declining unit sales, and rising foreclosures tell a completely different story.
Now really think about this, San Diego is the bellwether for Southern California real estate, we are only in the first stage of this downturn and SD is already at the historical high inventory. This is a quote from a San Diego realtor Bob Casagrande about the reality of the California housing market
“The reason that both the average and median prices have increased during the past year is that the sales distribution has shifted dramatically. The low end of the market has been crushed by the loss of buyers due to the increasing interest rates, especially the ARMs. The net effect is that the mix of homes sold has proportionally more expensive homes than previously. So comparing the average/median price now to the average/median price a year ago is like comparing an apple to an orange. Price reductions are real and ongoing and increasing.”
This is probably not the only e-mail you will get. Astute observers of this real estate market will call you out on this. This market is heading for a major correction and that argument is being backed up by the data everyday.
Thank you,
June 4, 2006 at 12:02 PM #26174ParticipantI just sent her a message as well. Good idea!
June 4, 2006 at 12:24 PM #26176john67elco
ParticipantDamn i feel sorry for who ever pisses LA RENTER off
June 4, 2006 at 12:44 PM #26177ParticipantC’mon Man, that article was absurd. Besides I hadn’t finished my first cup of coffee when I read it.
June 4, 2006 at 12:52 PM #26178PD
ParticipantLoved your reply, it was right on.
June 4, 2006 at 2:13 PM #26179Anonymous
GuestChris Johnston
There are going to be some lawsuits for all of this propaganda when the levee breaks, and some of these people will be deserving of it. Media people will be immune, but the “insiders” are not going to be. I would not be surprised if some brokers are even attacked. It really depends on how severe the downturn becomes.
Walter Hahn is out running his crap again here in OC. My best friend (Commercial broker in RE) told me his history, and that he is considered a joke in the RE industry. He is still calling for double digit gains every year through 2014.
Unbelievable!
June 4, 2006 at 4:24 PM #26181picpoule
ParticipantAlong the same line, we better hope that Calderon wins the Presidential election in Mexico on July 2, because if he doesn’t there will indeed be a stampede that will be astronomically worse than what’s happened here under Vicente Fox.
June 4, 2006 at 4:44 PM #26182hs
ParticipantThat is why I think some of them are crooks!
June 4, 2006 at 5:55 PM #26184powayseller
ParticipantLA_Renter, thanks for sending that letter. I have called and e-mailed many journalists, both to correct and compliment them. Will Carless gets congrats, as does Ms. DiMartino at the Dallas News. KPBS talk show host Tom Fudge and U-T’s Roger Showley needed some education.
I bet this lady Diane will be more careful in checking her facts in the future. Journalists have egos too, and nobody likes to look foolish for writing a bad story!
The media prints what they hear from realtors. There is no propaganda, just lack of education. They are believing the same as most people still do: RE can only go up. Journalists did not study business in college; they are mostly clueless about the economy.
June 5, 2006 at 11:30 AM #26212ParticipantMy note to the author of the latimes article:
“This story is terribly misleading. There is no “population stampede” INTO Southern California aside from that by illegal immigration. The housing prices did not rise because of demand for housing. The prices rose due to shady new loan products and speculative buying. Many who used these products are finding themselves unable to pay their mortgages as their interest rates are resetting. Inventories are rising fast, frighteningly fast. Your artice does a disservice to the readers of the LA Times who expect to get unbiased reporting of facts, not half-truths.”
And her reply:
“I beg to differ—as would the economists I spent weeks talking to. There is, indeed, a large population increase–aside from illegal immigrants–from international migration and from births of U.S. citizens. Housing prices rose because of a huge demand for housing—I’ve covered this for five years and humbly feel I know these facts—as well as low-interest mortgage loans–which I mention in the story. Every expert I talked to about interest-only loans says that down the line there may be foreclosures because of those who cannot afford the payments. But right now, most who have those shaky loans can sell their homes. THis story is a comparison between the housing market in 2000 and now—and I stand by its accuracy.
Diane Wedner
Los Angeles Times Staff Writer”I’d like to send her a follow-up email with a few juicy facts thrown in – like the fact that 40% of real estate sales last year were due to second home and speculative buying alone. Is this not true of L.A.? Anyone have a good statistic I ought to add?
June 5, 2006 at 11:32 AM #26213ParticipantI guess one I should put in there is “Babies dont buy houses.”
June 5, 2006 at 11:42 AM #26215ParticipantBabies would have a hard time stampeding.
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