Peter Schiff: Housing prices will go back to 2000 or lower…

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Like most brokers who try to get you to buy into the hype, then sell into the panic.

Maybe fun to watch, but not a good way to make money, and even harder to go against.

good luck.

[Bugs]

By now, the “it will never happen here” crowd has been proven wrong so often I’m amazed that anyone would give their utterances any credence whatsoever.

New paradigm? Didn’t happen
Soft landing? Didn’t happen
We’ve finally reached the bottom? Hasn’t even come close

It won’t overcorrect past the trend? The jury may still be out on that one but it shouldn’t be.

Prof. Grantham & Co. have documented all those bubble markets and to date 100% of them have reverted to the long term trendline. Most of them overcorrected; all the real estate bubbles overcorrected. Who here truly believes that the current cycle will result in pricing that doesn’t overcorrect below the long term trend?

Excess is a knife that cuts both ways.

[Bugs]

By now, the “it will never happen here” crowd has been proven wrong so often I’m amazed that anyone would give their utterances any credence whatsoever.

New paradigm? Didn’t happen
Soft landing? Didn’t happen
We’ve finally reached the bottom? Hasn’t even come close

It won’t overcorrect past the trend? The jury may still be out on that one but it shouldn’t be.

Prof. Grantham & Co. have documented all those bubble markets and to date 100% of them have reverted to the long term trendline. Most of them overcorrected; all the real estate bubbles overcorrected. Who here truly believes that the current cycle will result in pricing that doesn’t overcorrect below the long term trend?

Excess is a knife that cuts both ways.

[Bugs]

By now, the “it will never happen here” crowd has been proven wrong so often I’m amazed that anyone would give their utterances any credence whatsoever.

New paradigm? Didn’t happen
Soft landing? Didn’t happen
We’ve finally reached the bottom? Hasn’t even come close

It won’t overcorrect past the trend? The jury may still be out on that one but it shouldn’t be.

Prof. Grantham & Co. have documented all those bubble markets and to date 100% of them have reverted to the long term trendline. Most of them overcorrected; all the real estate bubbles overcorrected. Who here truly believes that the current cycle will result in pricing that doesn’t overcorrect below the long term trend?

Excess is a knife that cuts both ways.

[Bugs]

By now, the “it will never happen here” crowd has been proven wrong so often I’m amazed that anyone would give their utterances any credence whatsoever.

New paradigm? Didn’t happen
Soft landing? Didn’t happen
We’ve finally reached the bottom? Hasn’t even come close

It won’t overcorrect past the trend? The jury may still be out on that one but it shouldn’t be.

Prof. Grantham & Co. have documented all those bubble markets and to date 100% of them have reverted to the long term trendline. Most of them overcorrected; all the real estate bubbles overcorrected. Who here truly believes that the current cycle will result in pricing that doesn’t overcorrect below the long term trend?

Excess is a knife that cuts both ways.

[Bugs]

By now, the “it will never happen here” crowd has been proven wrong so often I’m amazed that anyone would give their utterances any credence whatsoever.

New paradigm? Didn’t happen
Soft landing? Didn’t happen
We’ve finally reached the bottom? Hasn’t even come close

It won’t overcorrect past the trend? The jury may still be out on that one but it shouldn’t be.

Prof. Grantham & Co. have documented all those bubble markets and to date 100% of them have reverted to the long term trendline. Most of them overcorrected; all the real estate bubbles overcorrected. Who here truly believes that the current cycle will result in pricing that doesn’t overcorrect below the long term trend?

Excess is a knife that cuts both ways.

[5yearwaiter]

[quote=cooprider][quote=5yearwaiter]Is any one else thinking about the new housing bill that gave flex to “whoever in the ARM need to refinance now may get blessed with 87 % of new apprisal value”?. As per this, do you still think the home prices may go down to 2000 level[/quote]

The housing bill is a joke. It’s only a bail out for Fannie and Freddie, and it will do very little in CA. To be able to refinance at a lower rate the banks have to agree to take an additional 10% loss in a market like CA where prices have already dropped 30% or more. Even if the banks will do that the homeowner still has to qualify under 30 year fixed, while actually proving their income. Then when they go to sell up to 50% of their equity goes back to the government.

What do you think people are going to do? They’ll just stop paying and wait for the Sherriff to come knocking.[/quote]

Are you sure as per the new housing bill when they sell their 50% equity goes to Government?. Is this the total equity or the equity just paid at the time of 30 mortgage finance? I couldn’t understand what this new bill exactly explains all these.

[5yearwaiter]

[quote=cooprider][quote=5yearwaiter]Is any one else thinking about the new housing bill that gave flex to “whoever in the ARM need to refinance now may get blessed with 87 % of new apprisal value”?. As per this, do you still think the home prices may go down to 2000 level[/quote]

The housing bill is a joke. It’s only a bail out for Fannie and Freddie, and it will do very little in CA. To be able to refinance at a lower rate the banks have to agree to take an additional 10% loss in a market like CA where prices have already dropped 30% or more. Even if the banks will do that the homeowner still has to qualify under 30 year fixed, while actually proving their income. Then when they go to sell up to 50% of their equity goes back to the government.

What do you think people are going to do? They’ll just stop paying and wait for the Sherriff to come knocking.[/quote]

Are you sure as per the new housing bill when they sell their 50% equity goes to Government?. Is this the total equity or the equity just paid at the time of 30 mortgage finance? I couldn’t understand what this new bill exactly explains all these.

[5yearwaiter]

[quote=cooprider][quote=5yearwaiter]Is any one else thinking about the new housing bill that gave flex to “whoever in the ARM need to refinance now may get blessed with 87 % of new apprisal value”?. As per this, do you still think the home prices may go down to 2000 level[/quote]

The housing bill is a joke. It’s only a bail out for Fannie and Freddie, and it will do very little in CA. To be able to refinance at a lower rate the banks have to agree to take an additional 10% loss in a market like CA where prices have already dropped 30% or more. Even if the banks will do that the homeowner still has to qualify under 30 year fixed, while actually proving their income. Then when they go to sell up to 50% of their equity goes back to the government.

What do you think people are going to do? They’ll just stop paying and wait for the Sherriff to come knocking.[/quote]

Are you sure as per the new housing bill when they sell their 50% equity goes to Government?. Is this the total equity or the equity just paid at the time of 30 mortgage finance? I couldn’t understand what this new bill exactly explains all these.

[5yearwaiter]

[quote=cooprider][quote=5yearwaiter]Is any one else thinking about the new housing bill that gave flex to “whoever in the ARM need to refinance now may get blessed with 87 % of new apprisal value”?. As per this, do you still think the home prices may go down to 2000 level[/quote]

The housing bill is a joke. It’s only a bail out for Fannie and Freddie, and it will do very little in CA. To be able to refinance at a lower rate the banks have to agree to take an additional 10% loss in a market like CA where prices have already dropped 30% or more. Even if the banks will do that the homeowner still has to qualify under 30 year fixed, while actually proving their income. Then when they go to sell up to 50% of their equity goes back to the government.

What do you think people are going to do? They’ll just stop paying and wait for the Sherriff to come knocking.[/quote]

Are you sure as per the new housing bill when they sell their 50% equity goes to Government?. Is this the total equity or the equity just paid at the time of 30 mortgage finance? I couldn’t understand what this new bill exactly explains all these.

[5yearwaiter]

[quote=cooprider][quote=5yearwaiter]Is any one else thinking about the new housing bill that gave flex to “whoever in the ARM need to refinance now may get blessed with 87 % of new apprisal value”?. As per this, do you still think the home prices may go down to 2000 level[/quote]

The housing bill is a joke. It’s only a bail out for Fannie and Freddie, and it will do very little in CA. To be able to refinance at a lower rate the banks have to agree to take an additional 10% loss in a market like CA where prices have already dropped 30% or more. Even if the banks will do that the homeowner still has to qualify under 30 year fixed, while actually proving their income. Then when they go to sell up to 50% of their equity goes back to the government.

What do you think people are going to do? They’ll just stop paying and wait for the Sherriff to come knocking.[/quote]

Are you sure as per the new housing bill when they sell their 50% equity goes to Government?. Is this the total equity or the equity just paid at the time of 30 mortgage finance? I couldn’t understand what this new bill exactly explains all these.

[CA renter]

I hadn’t thought about refinancing after 5 years. Wonder how that will work out. Hopefully rates will be in the double-digits by then.

I have NO sympathy for those who overpaid for a house and can no longer make their payments. They **should be foreclosed on** and the fact that so many are whining about the equity sharing tells me they are the most ungrateful bunch of leeches ever.

From Bankrate:

Again, there is a catch. If you take refuge in this program, you’ll have to share your home-price appreciation with the FHA. If you sell the house (or refinance the loan) less than a year after refinancing into the FHA loan, the FHA gets all of the house price appreciation. The FHA’s cut decreases over the next five years — but never goes below 50 percent.

What does this mean to the borrower? Take the example above. You refinanced when the house was appraised at $100,000. A little over two years later, you sell the house for $120,000. You split that $20,000 difference with the FHA. In this case, because it’s between two and three years later, the FHA gets 80 percent. The FHA would get $16,000 and you would get $4,000.

The equity-sharing arrangement goes like this: If you refinance or sell less than a year after getting the FHA loan, the government gets 100 percent of the home price appreciation. If it’s more than a year but less than two years, the FHA gets 90 percent. The FHA’s cut then decreases by 10 percent until the five-year mark. Anytime after that, the FHA gets half of the appreciation, no matter how long you have the loan or own the house.

This arrangement will encourage homeowners to keep their FHA-insured mortgages for at least five years, but to refinance before home prices zoom upward again.

http://www.bankrate.com/brm/news/mortgages/housing-bill-20080725a1.asp

[CA renter]

I hadn’t thought about refinancing after 5 years. Wonder how that will work out. Hopefully rates will be in the double-digits by then.

I have NO sympathy for those who overpaid for a house and can no longer make their payments. They **should be foreclosed on** and the fact that so many are whining about the equity sharing tells me they are the most ungrateful bunch of leeches ever.

From Bankrate:

Again, there is a catch. If you take refuge in this program, you’ll have to share your home-price appreciation with the FHA. If you sell the house (or refinance the loan) less than a year after refinancing into the FHA loan, the FHA gets all of the house price appreciation. The FHA’s cut decreases over the next five years — but never goes below 50 percent.

What does this mean to the borrower? Take the example above. You refinanced when the house was appraised at $100,000. A little over two years later, you sell the house for $120,000. You split that $20,000 difference with the FHA. In this case, because it’s between two and three years later, the FHA gets 80 percent. The FHA would get $16,000 and you would get $4,000.

The equity-sharing arrangement goes like this: If you refinance or sell less than a year after getting the FHA loan, the government gets 100 percent of the home price appreciation. If it’s more than a year but less than two years, the FHA gets 90 percent. The FHA’s cut then decreases by 10 percent until the five-year mark. Anytime after that, the FHA gets half of the appreciation, no matter how long you have the loan or own the house.

This arrangement will encourage homeowners to keep their FHA-insured mortgages for at least five years, but to refinance before home prices zoom upward again.

http://www.bankrate.com/brm/news/mortgages/housing-bill-20080725a1.asp

[CA renter]

I hadn’t thought about refinancing after 5 years. Wonder how that will work out. Hopefully rates will be in the double-digits by then.

I have NO sympathy for those who overpaid for a house and can no longer make their payments. They **should be foreclosed on** and the fact that so many are whining about the equity sharing tells me they are the most ungrateful bunch of leeches ever.

From Bankrate:

Again, there is a catch. If you take refuge in this program, you’ll have to share your home-price appreciation with the FHA. If you sell the house (or refinance the loan) less than a year after refinancing into the FHA loan, the FHA gets all of the house price appreciation. The FHA’s cut decreases over the next five years — but never goes below 50 percent.

What does this mean to the borrower? Take the example above. You refinanced when the house was appraised at $100,000. A little over two years later, you sell the house for $120,000. You split that $20,000 difference with the FHA. In this case, because it’s between two and three years later, the FHA gets 80 percent. The FHA would get $16,000 and you would get $4,000.

The equity-sharing arrangement goes like this: If you refinance or sell less than a year after getting the FHA loan, the government gets 100 percent of the home price appreciation. If it’s more than a year but less than two years, the FHA gets 90 percent. The FHA’s cut then decreases by 10 percent until the five-year mark. Anytime after that, the FHA gets half of the appreciation, no matter how long you have the loan or own the house.

This arrangement will encourage homeowners to keep their FHA-insured mortgages for at least five years, but to refinance before home prices zoom upward again.

http://www.bankrate.com/brm/news/mortgages/housing-bill-20080725a1.asp

[CA renter]

I hadn’t thought about refinancing after 5 years. Wonder how that will work out. Hopefully rates will be in the double-digits by then.

I have NO sympathy for those who overpaid for a house and can no longer make their payments. They **should be foreclosed on** and the fact that so many are whining about the equity sharing tells me they are the most ungrateful bunch of leeches ever.

From Bankrate:

Again, there is a catch. If you take refuge in this program, you’ll have to share your home-price appreciation with the FHA. If you sell the house (or refinance the loan) less than a year after refinancing into the FHA loan, the FHA gets all of the house price appreciation. The FHA’s cut decreases over the next five years — but never goes below 50 percent.

What does this mean to the borrower? Take the example above. You refinanced when the house was appraised at $100,000. A little over two years later, you sell the house for $120,000. You split that $20,000 difference with the FHA. In this case, because it’s between two and three years later, the FHA gets 80 percent. The FHA would get $16,000 and you would get $4,000.

The equity-sharing arrangement goes like this: If you refinance or sell less than a year after getting the FHA loan, the government gets 100 percent of the home price appreciation. If it’s more than a year but less than two years, the FHA gets 90 percent. The FHA’s cut then decreases by 10 percent until the five-year mark. Anytime after that, the FHA gets half of the appreciation, no matter how long you have the loan or own the house.

This arrangement will encourage homeowners to keep their FHA-insured mortgages for at least five years, but to refinance before home prices zoom upward again.

http://www.bankrate.com/brm/news/mortgages/housing-bill-20080725a1.asp

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