Peter Schiff: Housing prices will go back to 2000 or lower…

[kewp]

The only bright note I see is that the UD$ is now correcting to reflect actual weakness in competing currencies. Great!
I still think commodities is probably the safest play toward the end of this year. Hope the US$ holds till then.

I agree, if the US$ finds its bottom here I think we will be in good shape relatively speaking. It makes our commodities and labor much more competitive globally without sacrificing too much of our quality of life.

[Aecetia]

Are we there yet? (At the bottom). If the foreclosures get dumped, that should set a new low. I heard someone on the radio on Coast to Coast say that he thinks the U.S. is going to be like Japan in terms of real estate: flat for 10 years. I hope he is wrong. That will really be an anchor on the economy.

I think he was talking about this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_Decade_%28Japan%29
but I did not get the guest’s name.

[paramount]

I think that guest was either Craig R Smith or maybe Catherine Austin Fitts (she’s a he, but still a frequent guest and very sharp).

I’d like to hear some of peterb’s predictions on the housing and stock market.

[Aecetia]

C2C definitely gets some interesting guests on the show. I am not that interested in the UFO folks, but the economic ones are entertaining. I am not sure that we are like Japan, but I do not see it bouncing back any time soon. I would like to hear from the professionals though to see if they are seeing things happening now or is the money just sitting on the sidelines.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I like the Coast-to-coast guests when it involves Sasquatch, the chupacabra, ghosts, and Alien abductions a lot more than their guests who talek about the economy. But, my guess would be that they are all essentially equally credible.

[svelte]

[quote=sdrealtor]August 2008:
Coastal North County is still about 40% above 2001 prices for SFR’s.[/quote]

San Marcos house we owned in 2000 just resold a few months ago for 175% of it’s appraised value in 2000.

(I just checked the appraisal I had done then)

And the house has been severely worn down in the 12 years since the appraisal.

[paramount]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan]I like the Coast-to-coast guests when it involves Sasquatch, the chupacabra, ghosts, and Alien abductions a lot more than their guests who talek about the economy. But, my guess would be that they are all essentially equally credible.[/quote]

That’s ridiculous, Catherine Austin Fitts – a regular guest on C2C – is very sharp.

Fitts served as managing director and member of the board of directors of the Wall Street investment bank Dillon, Read & Co. Inc., as Assistant Secretary of Housing and Federal Housing[1] Commissioner at the United States Department of Housing and Urban Development in the first Bush Administration, and was the president of Hamilton Securities Group, Inc., an investment bank and financial software developer.

Fitts has a BA from the University of Pennsylvania, an MBA from the Wharton School and studied Mandarin at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. She publishes a column, “Mapping the Real Deal,” in Scoop in New Zealand.

I’d say she’s credible.

She also created:

The Popsicle index

The Popsicle Index is a quality of life measurement coined by Catherine Austin Fitts as the percentage of people in a community who believe that a child in their community can safely leave his home, walk to the nearest possible location to buy a popsicle, and walk back home.

[waiting hawk]

You cant only look at it in nominal price.
Mine foreclosed 680k bought it for 349k in 2010.

It sold in 7-21-2000 for 270k.
Lets say 20% down on 2000 purchase and only 15% down on mine:
270k 50k down 30 year rate at 8.21%.
220k loan at 8.21% is $1,646.60 only PI

Im at 3.875% with only 15% down no pmi after refi at $1368 only PI.

Payment, taxes, Insurance:
2000 buyer $1962(they even had 30% less taxes than me)
Mine now $1786.37

These houses rent for $2400-$2800. Not sure in 2000 what the rent was.

[svelte]

[quote=waiting hawk]You cant only look at it in nominal price.
Mine foreclosed 680k bought it for 349k in 2010.

It sold in 7-21-2000 for 270k.
[/quote]

I was referring to the quote in the original post:

Last week’s Case/Shiller Home Price report, which showed that real estate prices have now returned to 2004 levels, is the latest piece of such “good” news. In fact in a new national survey by real estate website Zillow found that 62 percent of U.S. homeowners believe that their home is worth as much or more than it was a year ago. Three-quarters of those surveyed expected that the value of their homes would rise or at least stay the same between now and early 2009. Talk about a field of dreams!

However, given the horrific fundamentals of the market, I would expect that before the market finds a real bottom, another four years of price increases will be similarly erased; leaving prices at 2000 levels or lower.

They were clearly talking about purchase price, not total monthly payment.

Looks like your house is above 150% of it’s 2000 price. Mine was at 175%. Don’t think we’ve hit 2000 prices yet, at least not in the areas where those two houses are located.

[sdrealtor]

Talking RE performance of a given home using national statistics is for suckers. It’s all local.

[waiting hawk]

[quote=sdrealtor]Talking RE performance of a given home using national statistics is for suckers. It’s all local.[/quote]
This is true. Back in 2000 the 210 fwy wasnt through and access to my house was aweful. Now its opened up to everyone wanting horse property in LA county. What happend to this forum? Everyone bought a house and ditched us or what?

[svelte]

[quote=sdrealtor]Talking RE performance of a given home using national statistics is for suckers. It’s all local.[/quote]

Yep, that’s my point. Anyone saying that housing is going back to 2000 prices is really leaving people with an inaccurate picture and unrealistic expectations.

[CAwireman]

Wow, one from the way back machine….

Prices in our area (including what we paid for our house in 2011) are in the 2003 range, +/- $2K to $10K.

If they drop to 2000 levels? Fine with me. Just let me refi to 3.75% 30 year fixed first. Then, I apply for a property tax reduction…..

[Author]

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