Peter Schiff: Housing prices will go back to 2000 or lower…

[peterb]

Agreed. Demand destruction seems to be picking up steam on a global level. Prechter at ElliotWave’s been saying this for a while now as well. But if the 1970’s are any indication, we could have a strong recession as commodities make big gains. Given the state of global finance, I think this could happen, but might take a little time to get going. Perhaps I’ll wait a few more months before jumping in. But I agree that the long term trend seems very strong.

[jficquette]

[quote=peterb]Yeah, I dont like being late to the party, but I think you’re dead on target about commmodities. Looks like I’m gonna dump a bunch of money in Jim Rogers index fund. I saw that he’s about 35% oil. I think it may be a little low, but in general I like the guys investment logic. Your thoughts?[/quote]

The easy money has been made in commodities. I would stay out of them until at least after the election.

Deflation will be the end result of all of this and the only asset worth having will be cash.

John

[jficquette]

[quote=peterb]Yeah, I dont like being late to the party, but I think you’re dead on target about commmodities. Looks like I’m gonna dump a bunch of money in Jim Rogers index fund. I saw that he’s about 35% oil. I think it may be a little low, but in general I like the guys investment logic. Your thoughts?[/quote]

The easy money has been made in commodities. I would stay out of them until at least after the election.

Deflation will be the end result of all of this and the only asset worth having will be cash.

John

[jficquette]

[quote=peterb]Yeah, I dont like being late to the party, but I think you’re dead on target about commmodities. Looks like I’m gonna dump a bunch of money in Jim Rogers index fund. I saw that he’s about 35% oil. I think it may be a little low, but in general I like the guys investment logic. Your thoughts?[/quote]

The easy money has been made in commodities. I would stay out of them until at least after the election.

Deflation will be the end result of all of this and the only asset worth having will be cash.

John

[jficquette]

[quote=peterb]Yeah, I dont like being late to the party, but I think you’re dead on target about commmodities. Looks like I’m gonna dump a bunch of money in Jim Rogers index fund. I saw that he’s about 35% oil. I think it may be a little low, but in general I like the guys investment logic. Your thoughts?[/quote]

The easy money has been made in commodities. I would stay out of them until at least after the election.

Deflation will be the end result of all of this and the only asset worth having will be cash.

John

[jficquette]

[quote=peterb]Yeah, I dont like being late to the party, but I think you’re dead on target about commmodities. Looks like I’m gonna dump a bunch of money in Jim Rogers index fund. I saw that he’s about 35% oil. I think it may be a little low, but in general I like the guys investment logic. Your thoughts?[/quote]

The easy money has been made in commodities. I would stay out of them until at least after the election.

Deflation will be the end result of all of this and the only asset worth having will be cash.

John

[kewp]

The easy money has been made in commodities. I would stay out of them until at least after the election.

Har, there ain’t nothing easy about making money via commodities.

You ever try pumping and refining oil yourself?

That’s why they retain value so much in recessions. They are the *fundamental* of modern civilization. I don’t need to buy real estate. But I need to buy food. Even if it costs 2-3 times as much. And it takes oil at least to get it to me, even if I’m walking to the taco stand.

The fact remains that the private equity firms are flush with cash and are looking for anywhere to put it that generates a positive ROI. And for the moment, commodities are the only game in town.

[kewp]

The easy money has been made in commodities. I would stay out of them until at least after the election.

Har, there ain’t nothing easy about making money via commodities.

You ever try pumping and refining oil yourself?

That’s why they retain value so much in recessions. They are the *fundamental* of modern civilization. I don’t need to buy real estate. But I need to buy food. Even if it costs 2-3 times as much. And it takes oil at least to get it to me, even if I’m walking to the taco stand.

The fact remains that the private equity firms are flush with cash and are looking for anywhere to put it that generates a positive ROI. And for the moment, commodities are the only game in town.

[kewp]

The easy money has been made in commodities. I would stay out of them until at least after the election.

Har, there ain’t nothing easy about making money via commodities.

You ever try pumping and refining oil yourself?

That’s why they retain value so much in recessions. They are the *fundamental* of modern civilization. I don’t need to buy real estate. But I need to buy food. Even if it costs 2-3 times as much. And it takes oil at least to get it to me, even if I’m walking to the taco stand.

The fact remains that the private equity firms are flush with cash and are looking for anywhere to put it that generates a positive ROI. And for the moment, commodities are the only game in town.

[kewp]

The easy money has been made in commodities. I would stay out of them until at least after the election.

Har, there ain’t nothing easy about making money via commodities.

You ever try pumping and refining oil yourself?

That’s why they retain value so much in recessions. They are the *fundamental* of modern civilization. I don’t need to buy real estate. But I need to buy food. Even if it costs 2-3 times as much. And it takes oil at least to get it to me, even if I’m walking to the taco stand.

The fact remains that the private equity firms are flush with cash and are looking for anywhere to put it that generates a positive ROI. And for the moment, commodities are the only game in town.

[kewp]

The easy money has been made in commodities. I would stay out of them until at least after the election.

Har, there ain’t nothing easy about making money via commodities.

You ever try pumping and refining oil yourself?

That’s why they retain value so much in recessions. They are the *fundamental* of modern civilization. I don’t need to buy real estate. But I need to buy food. Even if it costs 2-3 times as much. And it takes oil at least to get it to me, even if I’m walking to the taco stand.

The fact remains that the private equity firms are flush with cash and are looking for anywhere to put it that generates a positive ROI. And for the moment, commodities are the only game in town.

[peterb]

There seems to be a lot evidence mounting that the Fed’s attempt at reflation is not working and that the market is overwhelming it with deflationary pressure. I tend to agree. And we’re going into a global recession.
It looks a lot like demand destruction all around. Having said this, certain sectors of commodities are hard to reduce and/or subsitute. Like oil and food.( I noticed lately that both Rogers and Faber have been talking about food.) The CRB did extremely well in the 1970’s. We had inflation and a recession then. Stagflation. The CRB cranked up from 1971 to 1975 went sideways for a year and then went strongly up again to 1980.
I also agree that there’s a lot of cash looking for a home right now and Commodities may be the only logical choice when some of the noise dies down. Certainly, nothing else looks even remotely as bullish.
Thus, I am begining to think it’s a timing issue to get back into commodities at this point. They’ll do well in a recession and better in inflation. I hope!!

[peterb]

There seems to be a lot evidence mounting that the Fed’s attempt at reflation is not working and that the market is overwhelming it with deflationary pressure. I tend to agree. And we’re going into a global recession.
It looks a lot like demand destruction all around. Having said this, certain sectors of commodities are hard to reduce and/or subsitute. Like oil and food.( I noticed lately that both Rogers and Faber have been talking about food.) The CRB did extremely well in the 1970’s. We had inflation and a recession then. Stagflation. The CRB cranked up from 1971 to 1975 went sideways for a year and then went strongly up again to 1980.
I also agree that there’s a lot of cash looking for a home right now and Commodities may be the only logical choice when some of the noise dies down. Certainly, nothing else looks even remotely as bullish.
Thus, I am begining to think it’s a timing issue to get back into commodities at this point. They’ll do well in a recession and better in inflation. I hope!!

[peterb]

There seems to be a lot evidence mounting that the Fed’s attempt at reflation is not working and that the market is overwhelming it with deflationary pressure. I tend to agree. And we’re going into a global recession.
It looks a lot like demand destruction all around. Having said this, certain sectors of commodities are hard to reduce and/or subsitute. Like oil and food.( I noticed lately that both Rogers and Faber have been talking about food.) The CRB did extremely well in the 1970’s. We had inflation and a recession then. Stagflation. The CRB cranked up from 1971 to 1975 went sideways for a year and then went strongly up again to 1980.
I also agree that there’s a lot of cash looking for a home right now and Commodities may be the only logical choice when some of the noise dies down. Certainly, nothing else looks even remotely as bullish.
Thus, I am begining to think it’s a timing issue to get back into commodities at this point. They’ll do well in a recession and better in inflation. I hope!!

[peterb]

There seems to be a lot evidence mounting that the Fed’s attempt at reflation is not working and that the market is overwhelming it with deflationary pressure. I tend to agree. And we’re going into a global recession.
It looks a lot like demand destruction all around. Having said this, certain sectors of commodities are hard to reduce and/or subsitute. Like oil and food.( I noticed lately that both Rogers and Faber have been talking about food.) The CRB did extremely well in the 1970’s. We had inflation and a recession then. Stagflation. The CRB cranked up from 1971 to 1975 went sideways for a year and then went strongly up again to 1980.
I also agree that there’s a lot of cash looking for a home right now and Commodities may be the only logical choice when some of the noise dies down. Certainly, nothing else looks even remotely as bullish.
Thus, I am begining to think it’s a timing issue to get back into commodities at this point. They’ll do well in a recession and better in inflation. I hope!!

[Author]

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