Peter Schiff: Housing prices will go back to 2000 or lower…

[CA renter]

FSD,

I agree that 2001-2004 was like dollars raining down on anyone who sold a house. My contention is that the gains during that time were due to a credit bubble, not a normal housing cycle.

Our home price doubled between 1998 and 2001, and was already becoming unaffordable to people who were buying/living there. The fact that prices are already down to that level (and still falling!?!?) shows that we were probably at a top in 2001.

BTW, people who owned in 92057 and other “starter” neighborhoods were able to cash-out hundreds of thousands of dollars which were used to buy up the ladder. IMHO, this “downpayment” money is what’s keeping the mid-higher tier homes from showing the same stress as what’s found in the lower-end markets.

People who “bought-up” during the bubble could still HELOC or cash-out refi over the past few years (equity from prior sales), just to hang on a little bit longer until “the market gets better.”

As people are no longer able to bring $200K-$500K in for down-payments, the mid-upper tiers will begin to see the same kind of stress as seen in the lower-end areas, IMHO.

I DO NOT think “it’s different here.” People were stretching and getting into toxic loans all along the housing spectrum.

See Jim’s Klinge’s post about Jenae and the million-dollar sales that were bought using 100% loans and promptly defaulted on. These sales were used as comps for all the other sales (many of which also saw 100% loans or neg-am products).

We are nowhere near then end of this credit contraction, and probably have many years before we reach “bottom,” IMHO.

[CA renter]

Oops!!

Also have to make a correction on the return on sale of house. It was 339%, not 229%.

[CA renter]

Oops!!

Also have to make a correction on the return on sale of house. It was 339%, not 229%.

[CA renter]

Oops!!

Also have to make a correction on the return on sale of house. It was 339%, not 229%.

[CA renter]

Oops!!

Also have to make a correction on the return on sale of house. It was 339%, not 229%.

[CA renter]

Oops!!

Also have to make a correction on the return on sale of house. It was 339%, not 229%.

[sdrealtor]

Actually jenae’s sales were nopt used as comps for all other sales. All the agent sin the area knew there was something wrong with the sales and the stand head and shoulders above the other sales of much nicer homes in that same time range. The real impact of those homes is being felt now that they are being sold off. Amazingly none have hit the REO market yet. If and when they do ,that is when their true impact will be felt.

[sdrealtor]

Actually jenae’s sales were nopt used as comps for all other sales. All the agent sin the area knew there was something wrong with the sales and the stand head and shoulders above the other sales of much nicer homes in that same time range. The real impact of those homes is being felt now that they are being sold off. Amazingly none have hit the REO market yet. If and when they do ,that is when their true impact will be felt.

[sdrealtor]

Actually jenae’s sales were nopt used as comps for all other sales. All the agent sin the area knew there was something wrong with the sales and the stand head and shoulders above the other sales of much nicer homes in that same time range. The real impact of those homes is being felt now that they are being sold off. Amazingly none have hit the REO market yet. If and when they do ,that is when their true impact will be felt.

[sdrealtor]

Actually jenae’s sales were nopt used as comps for all other sales. All the agent sin the area knew there was something wrong with the sales and the stand head and shoulders above the other sales of much nicer homes in that same time range. The real impact of those homes is being felt now that they are being sold off. Amazingly none have hit the REO market yet. If and when they do ,that is when their true impact will be felt.

[sdrealtor]

Actually jenae’s sales were nopt used as comps for all other sales. All the agent sin the area knew there was something wrong with the sales and the stand head and shoulders above the other sales of much nicer homes in that same time range. The real impact of those homes is being felt now that they are being sold off. Amazingly none have hit the REO market yet. If and when they do ,that is when their true impact will be felt.

[zk]

[quote=sdrealtor]Actually jenae’s sales were nopt used as comps for all other sales. All the agent sin the area knew there was something wrong with the sales [/quote]

OK, but did the appraisers know (and care)? If I remember, when stuff was going straight up, a lot of times appraisers really had to stretch to get an appraisal to come in where they needed it to. If they were bending the rules already, why would they pass up an opportunity to use one of those sales – which would legally pass for their purposes as a legitmate sale – as a comp?

[zk]

[quote=sdrealtor]Actually jenae’s sales were nopt used as comps for all other sales. All the agent sin the area knew there was something wrong with the sales [/quote]

OK, but did the appraisers know (and care)? If I remember, when stuff was going straight up, a lot of times appraisers really had to stretch to get an appraisal to come in where they needed it to. If they were bending the rules already, why would they pass up an opportunity to use one of those sales – which would legally pass for their purposes as a legitmate sale – as a comp?

[zk]

[quote=sdrealtor]Actually jenae’s sales were nopt used as comps for all other sales. All the agent sin the area knew there was something wrong with the sales [/quote]

OK, but did the appraisers know (and care)? If I remember, when stuff was going straight up, a lot of times appraisers really had to stretch to get an appraisal to come in where they needed it to. If they were bending the rules already, why would they pass up an opportunity to use one of those sales – which would legally pass for their purposes as a legitmate sale – as a comp?

[zk]

[quote=sdrealtor]Actually jenae’s sales were nopt used as comps for all other sales. All the agent sin the area knew there was something wrong with the sales [/quote]

OK, but did the appraisers know (and care)? If I remember, when stuff was going straight up, a lot of times appraisers really had to stretch to get an appraisal to come in where they needed it to. If they were bending the rules already, why would they pass up an opportunity to use one of those sales – which would legally pass for their purposes as a legitmate sale – as a comp?

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