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CA renter.
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December 8, 2011 at 1:42 PM #734278December 8, 2011 at 1:47 PM #734279
sdrealtor
ParticipantThe ammunitition is that it is a postive number and she claimed I couldnt provide any examples of homes built in the last decade that havent lost value. If she is going to use it, then it would have to be for shooting herself in the head. Case closed.
December 8, 2011 at 1:49 PM #734281bearishgurl
Participant[quote=briansd1][quote=bearishgurl] The point I’m trying to make here is that the “choice” properties in the “best hands” are not going to move in the near future if their values are artificially held down by the mistakes and greed of the irresponsible masses. [/quote]
I disagree that any market price is “artificial”. It’s the real price at that time.
There is a price to pay for waiting. First, you’re not getting any younger and the money you could have accessed to enjoy life is locked up, so you have to restrain yourself in other areas.
Look at Japan, 21 years after their peak, the Japanese vigor is gone. Many areas outside the urban cores have not recovered in value. The Nikkei’s peak was 38,000. Now it’s at about 8,700.
You don’t see Japanese tourists traveling the world and enjoying life as much anymore. The Japanese signs have disappeared in favor of Chinese.
I’m not saying that America will suffer the same fate, but we could experience an extended malaise.[/quote]
Like I said, I don’t need to recover my purchase price, just my cash investments, mtg balance at the time and closing costs.
Collecting rental income for a few years would supplement my retirement income. If I did NOT retire my mortgage, potential vacancies would have to be budgeted for. If I did end up retiring my mtg, I wouldn’t have as many worries regarding vacancies but you are correct in that I would not have that amt of cash available.
I could always list it for sale a few years into my “retirement” if the conditions are such that I will receive offers I would accept.
The above are choices for ANY “equity” homeowner with a mtg who is nearing retirement-age.
If the US economy experiences an “extended malaise” in the near future but yet these lenders “get with the program” this coming year and take back all “their” properties, then there would be other reason(s) for the “extended malaise,” no?
What caused the Japanese stock market to crash “21 yrs ago,” brian? I wasn’t paying attention to this stuff in the early ’90’s.
December 8, 2011 at 1:55 PM #734282Anonymous
GuestSub 5% return counts as “soared in value”
?
December 8, 2011 at 2:25 PM #734285Participant[quote=sdrealtor]The ammunitition is that it is a postive number and she claimed I couldnt provide any examples of homes built in the last decade that havent lost value. If she is going to use it, then it would have to be for shooting herself in the head. Case closed.[/quote]
Good L@rd, sdr!! Have you completed your recycling job yet? Are you aware that your “regular dude” is now picking thru your dumpster outside?? After you’re done with that task and send him on his way, why don’t you put on your glasses and go stand behind your tape on the floor positioned in front of your “CALTRANS-enhanced wall-mounted” Thomas Guide….
Okay . . . ready? Now pick up your darts and aim them one by one at every I-5 callbox that you have ever been inordinately delayed at in the middle of gridlocked Nirvana . . . Surely you can identify each and every one of them “up close and personal” by now, what with all the time you’ve had to stare at them all these years …..
I have some questions here in need of an “expert” answer:
The Cmno Serbal property (which sold for $633K in 2001), was that on a tract of similarly-priced properties? If so, was this tract first sold in 2001? Is it a gated community? (sorry, I did not look it up). Was this tract priced the average price of ALL sfr’s during 2001 in that vicinity? If not, what was the average sold price of sfr’s in that particular community in 2001?
Thank you for any assistance in this regard ;=D
December 8, 2011 at 2:58 PM #734288Participant[quote=pri_dk]Sub 5% return counts as “soared in value”
?[/quote]
pri_dk, I didn’t run your math …
So does this mean a homebuyer considering purchasing on Cmno Serbal in “Nirvana” in 2001 could have instead invested at least $100K in 3 or 5 YR Jumbo CD’s and made more $$ after 6, 9, or 10 years holding them and rolling them over upon maturity (sans maintenance, insurance and property taxes)? Am I correct here??
3Y Average CD Rates by Year
3Y average rate across all years: 5.041Graph Data
Cal. Year 3Y Term
1993 5.139%
1994 6.026%
1995 7.056%
1996 6.286%
1997 6.453%
1998 6.078%
1999 5.909%
2000 7.339%
2001 5.213% purchase year
2002 4.244%
2003 3.098%
2004 3.429% rollover year
2005 4.517%
2006 5.535%
2007 5.553% rollover year
2008 4.099%5Y Average CD Rates by Year
5Y average rate across all years: 5.250Graph Data
Cal. Year 5Y Term
1993 5.553%
1994 6.783%
1995 7.670%
1996 6.674%
1997 6.761%
1998 6.189%
1999 6.360%
2000 7.595%
2001 5.562% (purchase year)
2002 4.989%
2003 3.855%
2004 4.415%
2005 4.957%
2006 5.707% (rollover year)
2007 5.526%
2008 4.432%December 8, 2011 at 3:01 PM #734289GuestLeverage
December 8, 2011 at 3:04 PM #734290Participant[quote=pri_dk]Leverage[/quote]
A 20% downpayment on a $633K purchase equals $126,600 …
December 8, 2011 at 3:07 PM #734291NotCranky
Participant[quote=bearishgurl][quote=pri_dk]Leverage[/quote]
A 20% downpayment on a $633K purchase equals $126,600 …[/quote]
Calculate their ROI on the 126K and they did pretty good.December 8, 2011 at 3:10 PM #734293Participant[quote=Jacarandoso][quote=bearishgurl][quote=pri_dk]Leverage[/quote]
A 20% downpayment on a $633K purchase equals $126,600 …[/quote]
Calculate their ROI on the 126K and they did pretty good.[/quote]sdr said to add in the $50K in landscaping … and don’t forget the carrying costs … ANY non-deductible HOA dues/MR here??
December 8, 2011 at 3:15 PM #734292Participant[quote=bearishgurl][quote=pri_dk]Leverage[/quote]
A 20% downpayment on a $633K purchase equals $126,600 …[/quote]
This amt should have been available to purchase a CD …
Okay … one would have had to invest the entire $633K in 2001 on a jumbo CD to make more than the $317K to $367K that was made on this property. But with a CD, there is no PITI to pay every month and no MID to deduct ….
It’s all too complicated for me …
pri_dk, why don’t you tackle this??
December 8, 2011 at 3:17 PM #734295Participant/[quote=bearishgurl][quote=Jacarandoso][quote=bearishgurl][quote=pri_dk]Leverage[/quote]
A 20% downpayment on a $633K purchase equals $126,600 …[/quote]
Calculate their ROI on the 126K and they did pretty good.[/quote]sdr said to add in the $50K in landscaping … and don’t forget the carrying costs … ANY non-deductible HOA dues/MR here??[/quote]
Plug the numbers in here.
http://www.money-zine.com/Calculators/Investment-Calculators/Return-on-Investment-Calculator/PITI and any deduction mello roos ect compared to rent probably would be somewhere around a wash give or take some hundreds of dollars per month over the time period.
December 8, 2011 at 3:32 PM #734296Guest5% annualized return on an investment that is leveraged 5 to 1 is very good.
But then you gotta factor in the cost to finance, cash flow from rental savings, taxes, etc. (so now we have to be more precise, but I don’t want to bother…)
Polly not a bad investment though. But not as good as it might sound at first.
But leverage works both ways. Many forgot that fact over the years, but learned it the hard way recently.
December 8, 2011 at 3:54 PM #734298Participant[quote=pri_dk]Sub 5% return counts as “soared in value”
?[/quote]
Absolutely! Half of the last decade has been characterized by deep home price declines so averaging 5% over this time period qualifies when you consider the benefits of leverage also. A buyer that put 205 down has seen that investment go up how many times? What were the major stock indexes at 10 years ago?
December 8, 2011 at 4:03 PM #734299Participant[quote=bearishgurl][quote=sdrealtor]The ammunitition is that it is a postive number and she claimed I couldnt provide any examples of homes built in the last decade that havent lost value. If she is going to use it, then it would have to be for shooting herself in the head. Case closed.[/quote]
Good L@rd, sdr!! Have you completed your recycling job yet? Are you aware that your “regular dude” is now picking thru your dumpster outside?? After you’re done with that task and send him on his way, why don’t you put on your glasses and go stand behind your tape on the floor positioned in front of your “CALTRANS-enhanced wall-mounted” Thomas Guide….
Okay . . . ready? Now pick up your darts and aim them one by one at every I-5 callbox that you have ever been inordinately delayed at in the middle of gridlocked Nirvana . . . Surely you can identify each and every one of them “up close and personal” by now, what with all the time you’ve had to stare at them all these years …..
I have some questions here in need of an “expert” answer:
The Cmno Serbal property (which sold for $633K in 2001), was that on a tract of similarly-priced properties? If so, was this tract first sold in 2001? Is it a gated community? (sorry, I did not look it up). Was this tract priced the average price of ALL sfr’s during 2001 in that vicinity? If not, what was the average sold price of sfr’s in that particular community in 2001?
Thank you for any assistance in this regard ;=D[/quote]
The camino serbal is in a tract of similarly priced properties. It is on the higher end of the tract which has 1050 homes in it. It is not gated. The homes in the tract were built between 98 and 2003. If I remember correctly in 2001, homes in this tract went between 400 and 700K depending upon size, builder and upgrades. No home built in this tract is worth less than it originally sold for, not even close.
To answer your question HOA fees there were about 87/month which included pool, gym, tennis, parks, walking trails, country club calibur club house and the top scoring school in the district located a short walk from most homes. MR is $800. If you added in PITI plus HOA fees on a $500K mortgage for the house plus taxes, insurance hoa etc you would still be around equivalent rent for a house like that. You cant live in a CD last time I checked.
You are insane! You challenged me to come up with a single house that hadnt lost value and I did so easily. In your twisted mind, somehow I proved your point by proving your statements false. You are certifiably crazy.
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