Paying Attention?

[danielwis]

[quote=walterwhite]Shorting gold is scary. People thought it looked tippy at 1,000. It is a bad idea to basically call a top on a 10 y bull market ESP where there’s been no explosive blowoff. I’m not giving investment advice just be cautious about getting in the way of any longterm bull market…[/quote]
I agree, and I wouldn’t advise anyone to do the same. I have time and am actually dollar cost averaging into the short position on gold. I’ll buy more at 1700 and 1800, etc. The payoff is likely well down the road.

[moneymaker]

I’m calling a bubble in health care. I don’t know somebody fill me in does a band-aid go for $10 or $20 at a hospital or ER? When people wake up and realize they are getting screwed by TPTB then we will smell the coffee and be okay again. Doesn’t seem to me that we are really living in a competitive society. When is the last time your cable/internet/cell phone bill went down due to competition. My 2¢ is that people will start tightening their grip on their money even if they don’t have to.

[moneymaker]

I’m calling a bubble in health care. I don’t know somebody fill me in does a band-aid go for $10 or $20 at a hospital or ER? When people wake up and realize they are getting screwed by TPTB then we will smell the coffee and be okay again. Doesn’t seem to me that we are really living in a competitive society. When is the last time your cable/internet/cell phone bill went down due to competition. My 2¢ is that people will start tightening their grip on their money even if they don’t have to.

[moneymaker]

I’m calling a bubble in health care. I don’t know somebody fill me in does a band-aid go for $10 or $20 at a hospital or ER? When people wake up and realize they are getting screwed by TPTB then we will smell the coffee and be okay again. Doesn’t seem to me that we are really living in a competitive society. When is the last time your cable/internet/cell phone bill went down due to competition. My 2¢ is that people will start tightening their grip on their money even if they don’t have to.

[moneymaker]

I’m calling a bubble in health care. I don’t know somebody fill me in does a band-aid go for $10 or $20 at a hospital or ER? When people wake up and realize they are getting screwed by TPTB then we will smell the coffee and be okay again. Doesn’t seem to me that we are really living in a competitive society. When is the last time your cable/internet/cell phone bill went down due to competition. My 2¢ is that people will start tightening their grip on their money even if they don’t have to.

[moneymaker]

I’m calling a bubble in health care. I don’t know somebody fill me in does a band-aid go for $10 or $20 at a hospital or ER? When people wake up and realize they are getting screwed by TPTB then we will smell the coffee and be okay again. Doesn’t seem to me that we are really living in a competitive society. When is the last time your cable/internet/cell phone bill went down due to competition. My 2¢ is that people will start tightening their grip on their money even if they don’t have to.

[SK in CV]

[quote=Nor-LA-SD-GUY2]
Something no one wants to hear but it’s the truth.
It’s So Simple,
Housing is 20% of the economy in most locals (not all but most)
Agents, escrow, insurance, finance , landscape, builders,… etc the list goes on.

YOU WILL NEVER HAVE AN ECONOMIC RECOVERY UNTIL THE MAJORITY OF UNDERWATER HOME OWNERS ARE NO LONGER UNDER WATER,
One way or the other..

[/quote]

I think you’re mostly right here, despite the hyperbole. We actually have had a small recovery, which is miraculous under the circumstances. But I think you’ve also jumped to the conclusion that if real estate hits bottom, then there will be a recovery. Not so fast. It’s not just real estate that drives so many local economies. It’s construction. The bottoming out of housing prices and reduction of inventory overhang by itself will not guarantee that construction picks up. (In the short term it will. Guaranteed. Because builders build. It’s what they do. Until they can’t sell what they build.)

For some local economies, it will. But others just don’t need any more housing. The country as a whole isn’t over-built for 18 months. It may be over-built for closer to 5 years. Some markets for a generation. And more construction in over-built locales will just put additional downward pressure on prices.

So I think you’re right, but maybe a bit too optomistic. Fixing the underwater homeowners, by itself, may not even help much.

The real recovery, including massive job creation, will have to come from somewhere else. Given the current political climate and the current corporate zeitgeist, I haven’t a clue where that would be.

[SK in CV]

[quote=Nor-LA-SD-GUY2]
Something no one wants to hear but it’s the truth.
It’s So Simple,
Housing is 20% of the economy in most locals (not all but most)
Agents, escrow, insurance, finance , landscape, builders,… etc the list goes on.

YOU WILL NEVER HAVE AN ECONOMIC RECOVERY UNTIL THE MAJORITY OF UNDERWATER HOME OWNERS ARE NO LONGER UNDER WATER,
One way or the other..

[/quote]

I think you’re mostly right here, despite the hyperbole. We actually have had a small recovery, which is miraculous under the circumstances. But I think you’ve also jumped to the conclusion that if real estate hits bottom, then there will be a recovery. Not so fast. It’s not just real estate that drives so many local economies. It’s construction. The bottoming out of housing prices and reduction of inventory overhang by itself will not guarantee that construction picks up. (In the short term it will. Guaranteed. Because builders build. It’s what they do. Until they can’t sell what they build.)

For some local economies, it will. But others just don’t need any more housing. The country as a whole isn’t over-built for 18 months. It may be over-built for closer to 5 years. Some markets for a generation. And more construction in over-built locales will just put additional downward pressure on prices.

So I think you’re right, but maybe a bit too optomistic. Fixing the underwater homeowners, by itself, may not even help much.

The real recovery, including massive job creation, will have to come from somewhere else. Given the current political climate and the current corporate zeitgeist, I haven’t a clue where that would be.

[SK in CV]

[quote=Nor-LA-SD-GUY2]
Something no one wants to hear but it’s the truth.
It’s So Simple,
Housing is 20% of the economy in most locals (not all but most)
Agents, escrow, insurance, finance , landscape, builders,… etc the list goes on.

YOU WILL NEVER HAVE AN ECONOMIC RECOVERY UNTIL THE MAJORITY OF UNDERWATER HOME OWNERS ARE NO LONGER UNDER WATER,
One way or the other..

[/quote]

I think you’re mostly right here, despite the hyperbole. We actually have had a small recovery, which is miraculous under the circumstances. But I think you’ve also jumped to the conclusion that if real estate hits bottom, then there will be a recovery. Not so fast. It’s not just real estate that drives so many local economies. It’s construction. The bottoming out of housing prices and reduction of inventory overhang by itself will not guarantee that construction picks up. (In the short term it will. Guaranteed. Because builders build. It’s what they do. Until they can’t sell what they build.)

For some local economies, it will. But others just don’t need any more housing. The country as a whole isn’t over-built for 18 months. It may be over-built for closer to 5 years. Some markets for a generation. And more construction in over-built locales will just put additional downward pressure on prices.

So I think you’re right, but maybe a bit too optomistic. Fixing the underwater homeowners, by itself, may not even help much.

The real recovery, including massive job creation, will have to come from somewhere else. Given the current political climate and the current corporate zeitgeist, I haven’t a clue where that would be.

[SK in CV]

[quote=Nor-LA-SD-GUY2]
Something no one wants to hear but it’s the truth.
It’s So Simple,
Housing is 20% of the economy in most locals (not all but most)
Agents, escrow, insurance, finance , landscape, builders,… etc the list goes on.

YOU WILL NEVER HAVE AN ECONOMIC RECOVERY UNTIL THE MAJORITY OF UNDERWATER HOME OWNERS ARE NO LONGER UNDER WATER,
One way or the other..

[/quote]

I think you’re mostly right here, despite the hyperbole. We actually have had a small recovery, which is miraculous under the circumstances. But I think you’ve also jumped to the conclusion that if real estate hits bottom, then there will be a recovery. Not so fast. It’s not just real estate that drives so many local economies. It’s construction. The bottoming out of housing prices and reduction of inventory overhang by itself will not guarantee that construction picks up. (In the short term it will. Guaranteed. Because builders build. It’s what they do. Until they can’t sell what they build.)

For some local economies, it will. But others just don’t need any more housing. The country as a whole isn’t over-built for 18 months. It may be over-built for closer to 5 years. Some markets for a generation. And more construction in over-built locales will just put additional downward pressure on prices.

So I think you’re right, but maybe a bit too optomistic. Fixing the underwater homeowners, by itself, may not even help much.

The real recovery, including massive job creation, will have to come from somewhere else. Given the current political climate and the current corporate zeitgeist, I haven’t a clue where that would be.

[SK in CV]

[quote=Nor-LA-SD-GUY2]
Something no one wants to hear but it’s the truth.
It’s So Simple,
Housing is 20% of the economy in most locals (not all but most)
Agents, escrow, insurance, finance , landscape, builders,… etc the list goes on.

YOU WILL NEVER HAVE AN ECONOMIC RECOVERY UNTIL THE MAJORITY OF UNDERWATER HOME OWNERS ARE NO LONGER UNDER WATER,
One way or the other..

[/quote]

I think you’re mostly right here, despite the hyperbole. We actually have had a small recovery, which is miraculous under the circumstances. But I think you’ve also jumped to the conclusion that if real estate hits bottom, then there will be a recovery. Not so fast. It’s not just real estate that drives so many local economies. It’s construction. The bottoming out of housing prices and reduction of inventory overhang by itself will not guarantee that construction picks up. (In the short term it will. Guaranteed. Because builders build. It’s what they do. Until they can’t sell what they build.)

For some local economies, it will. But others just don’t need any more housing. The country as a whole isn’t over-built for 18 months. It may be over-built for closer to 5 years. Some markets for a generation. And more construction in over-built locales will just put additional downward pressure on prices.

So I think you’re right, but maybe a bit too optomistic. Fixing the underwater homeowners, by itself, may not even help much.

The real recovery, including massive job creation, will have to come from somewhere else. Given the current political climate and the current corporate zeitgeist, I haven’t a clue where that would be.

[The-Shoveler]

Just getting back to the normal number of RE transactions would put us very close to 6% unemployment in SoCal I believe.
The drastic cut back in building over the last 5 years has far exceeded the overbuilding from 2001 to 2006 . It’s just that the economy is broken so household formation has been in a drastic crimp as well.

[The-Shoveler]

Just getting back to the normal number of RE transactions would put us very close to 6% unemployment in SoCal I believe.
The drastic cut back in building over the last 5 years has far exceeded the overbuilding from 2001 to 2006 . It’s just that the economy is broken so household formation has been in a drastic crimp as well.

[The-Shoveler]

Just getting back to the normal number of RE transactions would put us very close to 6% unemployment in SoCal I believe.
The drastic cut back in building over the last 5 years has far exceeded the overbuilding from 2001 to 2006 . It’s just that the economy is broken so household formation has been in a drastic crimp as well.

[The-Shoveler]

Just getting back to the normal number of RE transactions would put us very close to 6% unemployment in SoCal I believe.
The drastic cut back in building over the last 5 years has far exceeded the overbuilding from 2001 to 2006 . It’s just that the economy is broken so household formation has been in a drastic crimp as well.

[Author]

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