OT probabilty problem.

[gandalf]

Cool calcs. Yep, problem was incomplete, not enough information. After all, 1/20th of a litter of eight is what? Maybe enough for a wing. With barbecue sauce. Mmmm….

Regardless, ucodegen, you did have the best analysis, and suppose Rus could consider naming Rooster after you, but then how do you name a pet Rooster:

‘Uco-de-gen’?

Seems to me it’s gotta roll of yer tongue like “Goddamn it TG! Would’ja shut up with the crowing already? It’s 4am in the goddamn morning, fer crist’s sake… Trying to get some sleep.” 😉

And besides, if Mary Ann and Ginger really are the GSE’s, you don’t want to get stuck holding the bag on that one!

[NotCranky]

UCO,
The birds came from a feed store where there were approximately 100 chicks at the time we purchased ours. I would think the set is not controlled as the sex identification and distribution is an on going process?

Get a new supplier is right.

If Ucodogen is correct, I am believing, who ever was identifying these birds was careless(profit motive) or incompetent or it really isn’t possible to identify live birds by sex to 95% when they are a day old. I didn’t bother to further my non-existent skills at home. I took good care of them. They got big. They all started crowing (except Ginger and Maryanne).

[NotCranky]

UCO,
The birds came from a feed store where there were approximately 100 chicks at the time we purchased ours. I would think the set is not controlled as the sex identification and distribution is an on going process?

Get a new supplier is right.

If Ucodogen is correct, I am believing, who ever was identifying these birds was careless(profit motive) or incompetent or it really isn’t possible to identify live birds by sex to 95% when they are a day old. I didn’t bother to further my non-existent skills at home. I took good care of them. They got big. They all started crowing (except Ginger and Maryanne).

[NotCranky]

UCO,
The birds came from a feed store where there were approximately 100 chicks at the time we purchased ours. I would think the set is not controlled as the sex identification and distribution is an on going process?

Get a new supplier is right.

If Ucodogen is correct, I am believing, who ever was identifying these birds was careless(profit motive) or incompetent or it really isn’t possible to identify live birds by sex to 95% when they are a day old. I didn’t bother to further my non-existent skills at home. I took good care of them. They got big. They all started crowing (except Ginger and Maryanne).

[NotCranky]

UCO,
The birds came from a feed store where there were approximately 100 chicks at the time we purchased ours. I would think the set is not controlled as the sex identification and distribution is an on going process?

Get a new supplier is right.

If Ucodogen is correct, I am believing, who ever was identifying these birds was careless(profit motive) or incompetent or it really isn’t possible to identify live birds by sex to 95% when they are a day old. I didn’t bother to further my non-existent skills at home. I took good care of them. They got big. They all started crowing (except Ginger and Maryanne).

[NotCranky]

UCO,
The birds came from a feed store where there were approximately 100 chicks at the time we purchased ours. I would think the set is not controlled as the sex identification and distribution is an on going process?

Get a new supplier is right.

If Ucodogen is correct, I am believing, who ever was identifying these birds was careless(profit motive) or incompetent or it really isn’t possible to identify live birds by sex to 95% when they are a day old. I didn’t bother to further my non-existent skills at home. I took good care of them. They got big. They all started crowing (except Ginger and Maryanne).

[Anonymous]

[quote=Rustico]

If Ucodogen is correct, I am believing, who ever was identifying these birds was careless(profit motive) or incompetent or it really isn’t possible to identify live birds by sex to 95% when they are a day old. I didn’t bother to further my non-existent skills at home. I took good care of them. They got big. They all started crowing (except Ginger and Maryanne).
[/quote]

With care, I believe it is possible to sex at 95%. But they sex thousands a day. So let’s say 1,000 would mean 50 roosters and 950 hens. If we separate them into 10 slices of 100, odds are good that there will be a couple slices with one or two roosters, and a few with many more, say eight or nine. If there’s any selection bias, for instance, males might be more or less active, then your results aren’t so surprising.
What is surprising is that your neighbors are going to be happy listening to your roosters crowing day and night, just to provide two hens with company. I lived in a neighborhood with chicken keepers, and the roosters either had no time sense at all or didn’t give a damn.

[Anonymous]

[quote=Rustico]

If Ucodogen is correct, I am believing, who ever was identifying these birds was careless(profit motive) or incompetent or it really isn’t possible to identify live birds by sex to 95% when they are a day old. I didn’t bother to further my non-existent skills at home. I took good care of them. They got big. They all started crowing (except Ginger and Maryanne).
[/quote]

With care, I believe it is possible to sex at 95%. But they sex thousands a day. So let’s say 1,000 would mean 50 roosters and 950 hens. If we separate them into 10 slices of 100, odds are good that there will be a couple slices with one or two roosters, and a few with many more, say eight or nine. If there’s any selection bias, for instance, males might be more or less active, then your results aren’t so surprising.
What is surprising is that your neighbors are going to be happy listening to your roosters crowing day and night, just to provide two hens with company. I lived in a neighborhood with chicken keepers, and the roosters either had no time sense at all or didn’t give a damn.

[Anonymous]

[quote=Rustico]

If Ucodogen is correct, I am believing, who ever was identifying these birds was careless(profit motive) or incompetent or it really isn’t possible to identify live birds by sex to 95% when they are a day old. I didn’t bother to further my non-existent skills at home. I took good care of them. They got big. They all started crowing (except Ginger and Maryanne).
[/quote]

With care, I believe it is possible to sex at 95%. But they sex thousands a day. So let’s say 1,000 would mean 50 roosters and 950 hens. If we separate them into 10 slices of 100, odds are good that there will be a couple slices with one or two roosters, and a few with many more, say eight or nine. If there’s any selection bias, for instance, males might be more or less active, then your results aren’t so surprising.
What is surprising is that your neighbors are going to be happy listening to your roosters crowing day and night, just to provide two hens with company. I lived in a neighborhood with chicken keepers, and the roosters either had no time sense at all or didn’t give a damn.

[Anonymous]

[quote=Rustico]

If Ucodogen is correct, I am believing, who ever was identifying these birds was careless(profit motive) or incompetent or it really isn’t possible to identify live birds by sex to 95% when they are a day old. I didn’t bother to further my non-existent skills at home. I took good care of them. They got big. They all started crowing (except Ginger and Maryanne).
[/quote]

With care, I believe it is possible to sex at 95%. But they sex thousands a day. So let’s say 1,000 would mean 50 roosters and 950 hens. If we separate them into 10 slices of 100, odds are good that there will be a couple slices with one or two roosters, and a few with many more, say eight or nine. If there’s any selection bias, for instance, males might be more or less active, then your results aren’t so surprising.
What is surprising is that your neighbors are going to be happy listening to your roosters crowing day and night, just to provide two hens with company. I lived in a neighborhood with chicken keepers, and the roosters either had no time sense at all or didn’t give a damn.

[Anonymous]

[quote=Rustico]

If Ucodogen is correct, I am believing, who ever was identifying these birds was careless(profit motive) or incompetent or it really isn’t possible to identify live birds by sex to 95% when they are a day old. I didn’t bother to further my non-existent skills at home. I took good care of them. They got big. They all started crowing (except Ginger and Maryanne).
[/quote]

With care, I believe it is possible to sex at 95%. But they sex thousands a day. So let’s say 1,000 would mean 50 roosters and 950 hens. If we separate them into 10 slices of 100, odds are good that there will be a couple slices with one or two roosters, and a few with many more, say eight or nine. If there’s any selection bias, for instance, males might be more or less active, then your results aren’t so surprising.
What is surprising is that your neighbors are going to be happy listening to your roosters crowing day and night, just to provide two hens with company. I lived in a neighborhood with chicken keepers, and the roosters either had no time sense at all or didn’t give a damn.

[NotCranky]

Audax,
Thanks for that input. There are several ways it could happen I guess.

The roosters won’t be a problem.
In keeping with with the meltdown/bailout allegory, there will be no help for anyone else, I named the other 5 roosters Wachovia, Suntrust, Downey, Lehman and Wamu.

[NotCranky]

Audax,
Thanks for that input. There are several ways it could happen I guess.

The roosters won’t be a problem.
In keeping with with the meltdown/bailout allegory, there will be no help for anyone else, I named the other 5 roosters Wachovia, Suntrust, Downey, Lehman and Wamu.

[NotCranky]

Audax,
Thanks for that input. There are several ways it could happen I guess.

The roosters won’t be a problem.
In keeping with with the meltdown/bailout allegory, there will be no help for anyone else, I named the other 5 roosters Wachovia, Suntrust, Downey, Lehman and Wamu.

[NotCranky]

Audax,
Thanks for that input. There are several ways it could happen I guess.

The roosters won’t be a problem.
In keeping with with the meltdown/bailout allegory, there will be no help for anyone else, I named the other 5 roosters Wachovia, Suntrust, Downey, Lehman and Wamu.

[Author]

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