OT probabilty problem.

[ucodegen]

The probability problem needs clarification. Were the 8 baby chicks picked from a large (virtually infinite) litter of chicks that were stochastically sexed (Demming process control type) at a rate of 95% hens?

Open (virtually infinite) sets have different probabilities than closed (choosing from a set of which is 95% hens – sexing operation 100% accurate) In this case, the set you are selecting from has to have more than 100 chicks because 6 are roosters, but your sexing showed 5 out of 100 as roosters.

For the first, you have 5 out of 100 (20) raised to the 6th power multiplied by 95 out of 100 (1.0526315) raised to the 2nd power, divided by the number of ways you can select 2 of one kind and 6 of another out of 8 (# of combinations).

Crap.. my calculator does not have a factorial button. longhand time…

Ok.. the odds of getting a group of 6 roosters followed by 2 hens from a pull of an infinite group of chicks is 1 out of 1108033.24099…

There are 28 different ways you can get 6 roosters and 2 hens from a pull of 8 chicks.. meaning that odds of getting 6 roosters and 2 hens from an endless pile of little clucks sexed at 95% hen is 1 out of 39572.6157

[sdduuuude]

Since it happened, the probability is 1.

[sdduuuude]

Since it happened, the probability is 1.

[sdduuuude]

Since it happened, the probability is 1.

[sdduuuude]

Since it happened, the probability is 1.

[sdduuuude]

Since it happened, the probability is 1.

[ucodegen]

One more question.. are you sure you are not dealing with hillcrest chicks or leucadia chicks? The ratio of hens is odd.. some may be cross-dressing or in the closet…..

[ucodegen]

One more question.. are you sure you are not dealing with hillcrest chicks or leucadia chicks? The ratio of hens is odd.. some may be cross-dressing or in the closet…..

[ucodegen]

One more question.. are you sure you are not dealing with hillcrest chicks or leucadia chicks? The ratio of hens is odd.. some may be cross-dressing or in the closet…..

[ucodegen]

One more question.. are you sure you are not dealing with hillcrest chicks or leucadia chicks? The ratio of hens is odd.. some may be cross-dressing or in the closet…..

[ucodegen]

One more question.. are you sure you are not dealing with hillcrest chicks or leucadia chicks? The ratio of hens is odd.. some may be cross-dressing or in the closet…..

[gandalf]

Cool calcs. Yep, problem was incomplete, not enough information. After all, 1/20th of a litter of eight is what? Maybe enough for a wing. With barbecue sauce. Mmmm….

Regardless, ucodegen, you did have the best analysis, and suppose Rus could consider naming Rooster after you, but then how do you name a pet Rooster:

‘Uco-de-gen’?

Seems to me it’s gotta roll of yer tongue like “Goddamn it TG! Would’ja shut up with the crowing already? It’s 4am in the goddamn morning, fer crist’s sake… Trying to get some sleep.” 😉

And besides, if Mary Ann and Ginger really are the GSE’s, you don’t want to get stuck holding the bag on that one!

[gandalf]

Cool calcs. Yep, problem was incomplete, not enough information. After all, 1/20th of a litter of eight is what? Maybe enough for a wing. With barbecue sauce. Mmmm….

Regardless, ucodegen, you did have the best analysis, and suppose Rus could consider naming Rooster after you, but then how do you name a pet Rooster:

‘Uco-de-gen’?

Seems to me it’s gotta roll of yer tongue like “Goddamn it TG! Would’ja shut up with the crowing already? It’s 4am in the goddamn morning, fer crist’s sake… Trying to get some sleep.” 😉

And besides, if Mary Ann and Ginger really are the GSE’s, you don’t want to get stuck holding the bag on that one!

[gandalf]

Cool calcs. Yep, problem was incomplete, not enough information. After all, 1/20th of a litter of eight is what? Maybe enough for a wing. With barbecue sauce. Mmmm….

Regardless, ucodegen, you did have the best analysis, and suppose Rus could consider naming Rooster after you, but then how do you name a pet Rooster:

‘Uco-de-gen’?

Seems to me it’s gotta roll of yer tongue like “Goddamn it TG! Would’ja shut up with the crowing already? It’s 4am in the goddamn morning, fer crist’s sake… Trying to get some sleep.” 😉

And besides, if Mary Ann and Ginger really are the GSE’s, you don’t want to get stuck holding the bag on that one!

[gandalf]

Cool calcs. Yep, problem was incomplete, not enough information. After all, 1/20th of a litter of eight is what? Maybe enough for a wing. With barbecue sauce. Mmmm….

Regardless, ucodegen, you did have the best analysis, and suppose Rus could consider naming Rooster after you, but then how do you name a pet Rooster:

‘Uco-de-gen’?

Seems to me it’s gotta roll of yer tongue like “Goddamn it TG! Would’ja shut up with the crowing already? It’s 4am in the goddamn morning, fer crist’s sake… Trying to get some sleep.” 😉

And besides, if Mary Ann and Ginger really are the GSE’s, you don’t want to get stuck holding the bag on that one!

[Author]

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