OMG Temecula approaches 1999 prices

[temeculaguy]

Bear, do you think the rental market will hold. I have to admit it’s as tight as it has ever been right now. There is very little for rent so. of 79, 1500 gets you a condo in Auberry and 2000 will get you one of those houses I linked. With a purchase price of 250k and rent of 2k, it’s a 125x ratio, the townhouses can be had for 200k, similar ratio. The gamble is will the rentals stay rented. I had to pay double rent for two weeks just to make sure I got a place where I wanted it because of the limited supply yet every tenth house is vacant. The people moving out almost had to be pushed because their new place wasn’t vacant yet. Are the current rents and vacancy factor artificial because so many people were being foreclosed on and are essentially tying up two houses (one they rent, the other in the slow foreclosure process)? When this squeezes through will the rental market get tough for landlords? And do you think some of the forclosees are just hanging around in their rental until their kids finish the school year? It just seemed to me as I was rental shopping that if I didn’t have the roots I have here, I would rent somehwere else, I would think the average commuter would move on since rents are similar in S.D. and O.C. Then again, you are the mogul, I’m a hobbyist.

Your comment about the banks taking lowballs, I think that cherry is about to pop. look at these listings that are bank owned all listed for more than four months and notice near the bottom of the page the listing price drops, seems they drop 10-20k a month like clockwork, they have got to be getting tired of that. Some have reduced their price 30%, just wait sixty days and they will take the 50k off themselves. Now that football season is over I have something to replace it with, it’s like checking standings every week to see who is in the lead.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=867629

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1005156

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1230987

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1233457

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=858784

actually don’t buy that last one, save it for me, it’s dropped 6 times in the last eight months for a total of 164k in drops, thats over 20k a month, in six months it will be 270k, it’s a little old school inside but check out the sattelite photo, that’s the golf course parking lot and I can walk home drunk from the golf course bar. I like that Euro feel of being able to hoof it to the pub.

[bearvine]

Rental Observations-

The thought pattern is that the rental market will stay strong, and get stronger in better markets. This applies only for residences that fall into the general area of affordability for the masses. For example, in the heart of Irvine, an IAC 2br 2ba townhome will cost one close to $2500 mo. Small from a sq ft perception, yet great amenities, landlord security, and an easy lifestyle. And the townhomes rent fast. On the other hand I am in a 4000 sq ft rental at $5k month for a $2m home on the hill. These don’t rent easy because it doesn’t make sense to pay so much. BTW, a neighboring home near me in foreclosure, that didnt sell at the aforementioned auction, the owners are squatting and refuse to leave.

So how does this apply to Temecula? Good points about the tight market now, yet the double home occupancy effect. Right on about commuters simply moving out of the area.

I think the rental market in Temecula will take a hit. Where it will stay strong, is a newer, 2000 sq ft home will rent fast at $1700, and the closer to 3000 sq ft around $1900. One could get more, but that’s the fast rental zone.

There will be job growth however, but not be higher scale, which is good for the rental market.

Right now, if you buy right, there should not be a negative, and if there is, the overage would cost one less than $5k a year. Now if I’m being to bearish on rents, and the market is stronger, than you are making money. Best to prepare for the worst case.

So why buy? Just as Temecula is dropping like a rock, at the next cycle it will take off like a rocket. The area is nice, will improve, and more people will need to live there.
If you can make some money annually or at least break even, come 2014-15 you’ll see the big jump right then and there.

That being said, right now is still not a great time to buy, especially from the rental standpoint. Why now when drops will be bigger?

The key IMO, is cherry picking, buying in the right neighborhood, finding the every now and then steal, etc. Of course the right price matters, but neighborhood is key. The only older tract homes I would consider are in Redhawk. The golf course, feel, location are all key.

I know I’ve bashed Wolf to death, and there is more about the area that I can’t share. If you have a family absolutely avoid it. Different story if you don’t. Great buys as rentals when they get into the low 2’s, proximity to Pechanga and Pala make it a great area to rent out.

Why buy now? If you find your dream home, meets all your needs, rent would cost you more, in a better area of Temecula, less than $300k, pay around $100 sq, why not.

Why would one start buying now to use as rentals? We believe we will be able to command a rental premium by giving the tenant piece of mind that we have the financial stability and won’t foreclose, as there is that issue right now for renters. Additionally, even if we are higher now, dollar cost averaging as the market continues to plummet will protect us. And once we establish with banks in the area that we are buying properties, we can negotiate sweetheart deals directly before they bring it to market. So we have to start somewhere, and it is beginning to look more interesting.

Last note, in regards to the fixers, remember contractors in the area are dying and the updating wont be as expensive.

[bearvine]

Rental Observations-

The thought pattern is that the rental market will stay strong, and get stronger in better markets. This applies only for residences that fall into the general area of affordability for the masses. For example, in the heart of Irvine, an IAC 2br 2ba townhome will cost one close to $2500 mo. Small from a sq ft perception, yet great amenities, landlord security, and an easy lifestyle. And the townhomes rent fast. On the other hand I am in a 4000 sq ft rental at $5k month for a $2m home on the hill. These don’t rent easy because it doesn’t make sense to pay so much. BTW, a neighboring home near me in foreclosure, that didnt sell at the aforementioned auction, the owners are squatting and refuse to leave.

So how does this apply to Temecula? Good points about the tight market now, yet the double home occupancy effect. Right on about commuters simply moving out of the area.

I think the rental market in Temecula will take a hit. Where it will stay strong, is a newer, 2000 sq ft home will rent fast at $1700, and the closer to 3000 sq ft around $1900. One could get more, but that’s the fast rental zone.

There will be job growth however, but not be higher scale, which is good for the rental market.

Right now, if you buy right, there should not be a negative, and if there is, the overage would cost one less than $5k a year. Now if I’m being to bearish on rents, and the market is stronger, than you are making money. Best to prepare for the worst case.

So why buy? Just as Temecula is dropping like a rock, at the next cycle it will take off like a rocket. The area is nice, will improve, and more people will need to live there.
If you can make some money annually or at least break even, come 2014-15 you’ll see the big jump right then and there.

That being said, right now is still not a great time to buy, especially from the rental standpoint. Why now when drops will be bigger?

The key IMO, is cherry picking, buying in the right neighborhood, finding the every now and then steal, etc. Of course the right price matters, but neighborhood is key. The only older tract homes I would consider are in Redhawk. The golf course, feel, location are all key.

I know I’ve bashed Wolf to death, and there is more about the area that I can’t share. If you have a family absolutely avoid it. Different story if you don’t. Great buys as rentals when they get into the low 2’s, proximity to Pechanga and Pala make it a great area to rent out.

Why buy now? If you find your dream home, meets all your needs, rent would cost you more, in a better area of Temecula, less than $300k, pay around $100 sq, why not.

Why would one start buying now to use as rentals? We believe we will be able to command a rental premium by giving the tenant piece of mind that we have the financial stability and won’t foreclose, as there is that issue right now for renters. Additionally, even if we are higher now, dollar cost averaging as the market continues to plummet will protect us. And once we establish with banks in the area that we are buying properties, we can negotiate sweetheart deals directly before they bring it to market. So we have to start somewhere, and it is beginning to look more interesting.

Last note, in regards to the fixers, remember contractors in the area are dying and the updating wont be as expensive.

[bearvine]

Rental Observations-

The thought pattern is that the rental market will stay strong, and get stronger in better markets. This applies only for residences that fall into the general area of affordability for the masses. For example, in the heart of Irvine, an IAC 2br 2ba townhome will cost one close to $2500 mo. Small from a sq ft perception, yet great amenities, landlord security, and an easy lifestyle. And the townhomes rent fast. On the other hand I am in a 4000 sq ft rental at $5k month for a $2m home on the hill. These don’t rent easy because it doesn’t make sense to pay so much. BTW, a neighboring home near me in foreclosure, that didnt sell at the aforementioned auction, the owners are squatting and refuse to leave.

So how does this apply to Temecula? Good points about the tight market now, yet the double home occupancy effect. Right on about commuters simply moving out of the area.

I think the rental market in Temecula will take a hit. Where it will stay strong, is a newer, 2000 sq ft home will rent fast at $1700, and the closer to 3000 sq ft around $1900. One could get more, but that’s the fast rental zone.

There will be job growth however, but not be higher scale, which is good for the rental market.

Right now, if you buy right, there should not be a negative, and if there is, the overage would cost one less than $5k a year. Now if I’m being to bearish on rents, and the market is stronger, than you are making money. Best to prepare for the worst case.

So why buy? Just as Temecula is dropping like a rock, at the next cycle it will take off like a rocket. The area is nice, will improve, and more people will need to live there.
If you can make some money annually or at least break even, come 2014-15 you’ll see the big jump right then and there.

That being said, right now is still not a great time to buy, especially from the rental standpoint. Why now when drops will be bigger?

The key IMO, is cherry picking, buying in the right neighborhood, finding the every now and then steal, etc. Of course the right price matters, but neighborhood is key. The only older tract homes I would consider are in Redhawk. The golf course, feel, location are all key.

I know I’ve bashed Wolf to death, and there is more about the area that I can’t share. If you have a family absolutely avoid it. Different story if you don’t. Great buys as rentals when they get into the low 2’s, proximity to Pechanga and Pala make it a great area to rent out.

Why buy now? If you find your dream home, meets all your needs, rent would cost you more, in a better area of Temecula, less than $300k, pay around $100 sq, why not.

Why would one start buying now to use as rentals? We believe we will be able to command a rental premium by giving the tenant piece of mind that we have the financial stability and won’t foreclose, as there is that issue right now for renters. Additionally, even if we are higher now, dollar cost averaging as the market continues to plummet will protect us. And once we establish with banks in the area that we are buying properties, we can negotiate sweetheart deals directly before they bring it to market. So we have to start somewhere, and it is beginning to look more interesting.

Last note, in regards to the fixers, remember contractors in the area are dying and the updating wont be as expensive.

[bearvine]

Rental Observations-

The thought pattern is that the rental market will stay strong, and get stronger in better markets. This applies only for residences that fall into the general area of affordability for the masses. For example, in the heart of Irvine, an IAC 2br 2ba townhome will cost one close to $2500 mo. Small from a sq ft perception, yet great amenities, landlord security, and an easy lifestyle. And the townhomes rent fast. On the other hand I am in a 4000 sq ft rental at $5k month for a $2m home on the hill. These don’t rent easy because it doesn’t make sense to pay so much. BTW, a neighboring home near me in foreclosure, that didnt sell at the aforementioned auction, the owners are squatting and refuse to leave.

So how does this apply to Temecula? Good points about the tight market now, yet the double home occupancy effect. Right on about commuters simply moving out of the area.

I think the rental market in Temecula will take a hit. Where it will stay strong, is a newer, 2000 sq ft home will rent fast at $1700, and the closer to 3000 sq ft around $1900. One could get more, but that’s the fast rental zone.

There will be job growth however, but not be higher scale, which is good for the rental market.

Right now, if you buy right, there should not be a negative, and if there is, the overage would cost one less than $5k a year. Now if I’m being to bearish on rents, and the market is stronger, than you are making money. Best to prepare for the worst case.

So why buy? Just as Temecula is dropping like a rock, at the next cycle it will take off like a rocket. The area is nice, will improve, and more people will need to live there.
If you can make some money annually or at least break even, come 2014-15 you’ll see the big jump right then and there.

That being said, right now is still not a great time to buy, especially from the rental standpoint. Why now when drops will be bigger?

The key IMO, is cherry picking, buying in the right neighborhood, finding the every now and then steal, etc. Of course the right price matters, but neighborhood is key. The only older tract homes I would consider are in Redhawk. The golf course, feel, location are all key.

I know I’ve bashed Wolf to death, and there is more about the area that I can’t share. If you have a family absolutely avoid it. Different story if you don’t. Great buys as rentals when they get into the low 2’s, proximity to Pechanga and Pala make it a great area to rent out.

Why buy now? If you find your dream home, meets all your needs, rent would cost you more, in a better area of Temecula, less than $300k, pay around $100 sq, why not.

Why would one start buying now to use as rentals? We believe we will be able to command a rental premium by giving the tenant piece of mind that we have the financial stability and won’t foreclose, as there is that issue right now for renters. Additionally, even if we are higher now, dollar cost averaging as the market continues to plummet will protect us. And once we establish with banks in the area that we are buying properties, we can negotiate sweetheart deals directly before they bring it to market. So we have to start somewhere, and it is beginning to look more interesting.

Last note, in regards to the fixers, remember contractors in the area are dying and the updating wont be as expensive.

[bearvine]

Rental Observations-

The thought pattern is that the rental market will stay strong, and get stronger in better markets. This applies only for residences that fall into the general area of affordability for the masses. For example, in the heart of Irvine, an IAC 2br 2ba townhome will cost one close to $2500 mo. Small from a sq ft perception, yet great amenities, landlord security, and an easy lifestyle. And the townhomes rent fast. On the other hand I am in a 4000 sq ft rental at $5k month for a $2m home on the hill. These don’t rent easy because it doesn’t make sense to pay so much. BTW, a neighboring home near me in foreclosure, that didnt sell at the aforementioned auction, the owners are squatting and refuse to leave.

So how does this apply to Temecula? Good points about the tight market now, yet the double home occupancy effect. Right on about commuters simply moving out of the area.

I think the rental market in Temecula will take a hit. Where it will stay strong, is a newer, 2000 sq ft home will rent fast at $1700, and the closer to 3000 sq ft around $1900. One could get more, but that’s the fast rental zone.

There will be job growth however, but not be higher scale, which is good for the rental market.

Right now, if you buy right, there should not be a negative, and if there is, the overage would cost one less than $5k a year. Now if I’m being to bearish on rents, and the market is stronger, than you are making money. Best to prepare for the worst case.

So why buy? Just as Temecula is dropping like a rock, at the next cycle it will take off like a rocket. The area is nice, will improve, and more people will need to live there.
If you can make some money annually or at least break even, come 2014-15 you’ll see the big jump right then and there.

That being said, right now is still not a great time to buy, especially from the rental standpoint. Why now when drops will be bigger?

The key IMO, is cherry picking, buying in the right neighborhood, finding the every now and then steal, etc. Of course the right price matters, but neighborhood is key. The only older tract homes I would consider are in Redhawk. The golf course, feel, location are all key.

I know I’ve bashed Wolf to death, and there is more about the area that I can’t share. If you have a family absolutely avoid it. Different story if you don’t. Great buys as rentals when they get into the low 2’s, proximity to Pechanga and Pala make it a great area to rent out.

Why buy now? If you find your dream home, meets all your needs, rent would cost you more, in a better area of Temecula, less than $300k, pay around $100 sq, why not.

Why would one start buying now to use as rentals? We believe we will be able to command a rental premium by giving the tenant piece of mind that we have the financial stability and won’t foreclose, as there is that issue right now for renters. Additionally, even if we are higher now, dollar cost averaging as the market continues to plummet will protect us. And once we establish with banks in the area that we are buying properties, we can negotiate sweetheart deals directly before they bring it to market. So we have to start somewhere, and it is beginning to look more interesting.

Last note, in regards to the fixers, remember contractors in the area are dying and the updating wont be as expensive.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Thanks TG

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Thanks TG

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Thanks TG

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Thanks TG

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Thanks TG

[Vertigo]

You piggies make me sick. Vultures is more like it. Just circling and circling from above looking for the weak down below. Looking for financial deaths. Cant wait to feed off of poor homeowners can you?

Cant wait to turn homes over to renters.

And how many of you have links to the speculators, brokers, lenders, realtors, appraisers, underwriters and mortgage backed securities that helped create this mess?

Your greed is ugly.

[Vertigo]

You piggies make me sick. Vultures is more like it. Just circling and circling from above looking for the weak down below. Looking for financial deaths. Cant wait to feed off of poor homeowners can you?

Cant wait to turn homes over to renters.

And how many of you have links to the speculators, brokers, lenders, realtors, appraisers, underwriters and mortgage backed securities that helped create this mess?

Your greed is ugly.

[Vertigo]

You piggies make me sick. Vultures is more like it. Just circling and circling from above looking for the weak down below. Looking for financial deaths. Cant wait to feed off of poor homeowners can you?

Cant wait to turn homes over to renters.

And how many of you have links to the speculators, brokers, lenders, realtors, appraisers, underwriters and mortgage backed securities that helped create this mess?

Your greed is ugly.

[Vertigo]

You piggies make me sick. Vultures is more like it. Just circling and circling from above looking for the weak down below. Looking for financial deaths. Cant wait to feed off of poor homeowners can you?

Cant wait to turn homes over to renters.

And how many of you have links to the speculators, brokers, lenders, realtors, appraisers, underwriters and mortgage backed securities that helped create this mess?

Your greed is ugly.

[Author]

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