Oil *was* a bubble

[Arraya]

[quote=donaldduckmoore]Demand destruction?! Will you explain and give more facts. Oil price came down from $150 to less than $90 in two months. Do we drive less? I don’t think so. I still see lots of cars on the freeway. It was a bubble.[/quote]

Well that was just brilliant in depth analysis. Sounds more like a faith based diagnosis. Please get familiar with the elasticity of oil. In July china decreased consumption by 10%.

There are very strong fundamental reasons for the movements in price. Though no doubt investment mechanism played a role in some amplification of prices but really the trend is important.

I’d even argue that our market has absolutely no way to put a price on the life blood of industrial civilization but that is another discussion all together.

[Arraya]

[quote=flinger][quote=stockstradr]Oil wasn’t and isn’t in a bubble.

Rich was and remains correct.

Oil has simply been hit with extreme demand destruction, deflationary pressures due to global economy recession / depression.[/quote]

Exactly. It’s not like oil went to $147, “crashed” to $80 (a number considered obscenely high just 18 months ago), and everyone lived happily ever after driving their SUV’s 50 miles to and from their overvalued McMansions.

Oil went too high and the global economy entered a state of severe malfunction. I’ve often taken issue with some of my fellow Peak Oilsters who believe that it is to the moon with the price of oil. The spot price of WTI is just a silly little (almost insignificant) number. At some price point, the economy breaks. Voluntarily or not, the citizens of the world accept an adjustment to their standard of living, oil recovers, rinse and repeat.[/quote]

I agree we hit a ceiling. I’d venture to guess even a healthy, and we are far from, globalized economy would start breaking down around $250 or so. The food riots that popped up all over the world a few months back are a good example of the kind of chaos high oil prices can bring.

After following the converging crises of peak oil and the credit bubble over the past few years. It looks like the implosion of our economy took care of high oil prices. I just find it interesting that the American consumer the main culprit in sucking up all the oil got shot dead in it’s tracks just has peak took hold. TPTB hit reset.

[Arraya]

[quote=flinger][quote=stockstradr]Oil wasn’t and isn’t in a bubble.

Rich was and remains correct.

Oil has simply been hit with extreme demand destruction, deflationary pressures due to global economy recession / depression.[/quote]

Exactly. It’s not like oil went to $147, “crashed” to $80 (a number considered obscenely high just 18 months ago), and everyone lived happily ever after driving their SUV’s 50 miles to and from their overvalued McMansions.

Oil went too high and the global economy entered a state of severe malfunction. I’ve often taken issue with some of my fellow Peak Oilsters who believe that it is to the moon with the price of oil. The spot price of WTI is just a silly little (almost insignificant) number. At some price point, the economy breaks. Voluntarily or not, the citizens of the world accept an adjustment to their standard of living, oil recovers, rinse and repeat.[/quote]

I agree we hit a ceiling. I’d venture to guess even a healthy, and we are far from, globalized economy would start breaking down around $250 or so. The food riots that popped up all over the world a few months back are a good example of the kind of chaos high oil prices can bring.

After following the converging crises of peak oil and the credit bubble over the past few years. It looks like the implosion of our economy took care of high oil prices. I just find it interesting that the American consumer the main culprit in sucking up all the oil got shot dead in it’s tracks just has peak took hold. TPTB hit reset.

[Arraya]

[quote=flinger][quote=stockstradr]Oil wasn’t and isn’t in a bubble.

Rich was and remains correct.

Oil has simply been hit with extreme demand destruction, deflationary pressures due to global economy recession / depression.[/quote]

Exactly. It’s not like oil went to $147, “crashed” to $80 (a number considered obscenely high just 18 months ago), and everyone lived happily ever after driving their SUV’s 50 miles to and from their overvalued McMansions.

Oil went too high and the global economy entered a state of severe malfunction. I’ve often taken issue with some of my fellow Peak Oilsters who believe that it is to the moon with the price of oil. The spot price of WTI is just a silly little (almost insignificant) number. At some price point, the economy breaks. Voluntarily or not, the citizens of the world accept an adjustment to their standard of living, oil recovers, rinse and repeat.[/quote]

I agree we hit a ceiling. I’d venture to guess even a healthy, and we are far from, globalized economy would start breaking down around $250 or so. The food riots that popped up all over the world a few months back are a good example of the kind of chaos high oil prices can bring.

After following the converging crises of peak oil and the credit bubble over the past few years. It looks like the implosion of our economy took care of high oil prices. I just find it interesting that the American consumer the main culprit in sucking up all the oil got shot dead in it’s tracks just has peak took hold. TPTB hit reset.

[Arraya]

[quote=flinger][quote=stockstradr]Oil wasn’t and isn’t in a bubble.

Rich was and remains correct.

Oil has simply been hit with extreme demand destruction, deflationary pressures due to global economy recession / depression.[/quote]

Exactly. It’s not like oil went to $147, “crashed” to $80 (a number considered obscenely high just 18 months ago), and everyone lived happily ever after driving their SUV’s 50 miles to and from their overvalued McMansions.

Oil went too high and the global economy entered a state of severe malfunction. I’ve often taken issue with some of my fellow Peak Oilsters who believe that it is to the moon with the price of oil. The spot price of WTI is just a silly little (almost insignificant) number. At some price point, the economy breaks. Voluntarily or not, the citizens of the world accept an adjustment to their standard of living, oil recovers, rinse and repeat.[/quote]

I agree we hit a ceiling. I’d venture to guess even a healthy, and we are far from, globalized economy would start breaking down around $250 or so. The food riots that popped up all over the world a few months back are a good example of the kind of chaos high oil prices can bring.

After following the converging crises of peak oil and the credit bubble over the past few years. It looks like the implosion of our economy took care of high oil prices. I just find it interesting that the American consumer the main culprit in sucking up all the oil got shot dead in it’s tracks just has peak took hold. TPTB hit reset.

[Arraya]

[quote=flinger][quote=stockstradr]Oil wasn’t and isn’t in a bubble.

Rich was and remains correct.

Oil has simply been hit with extreme demand destruction, deflationary pressures due to global economy recession / depression.[/quote]

Exactly. It’s not like oil went to $147, “crashed” to $80 (a number considered obscenely high just 18 months ago), and everyone lived happily ever after driving their SUV’s 50 miles to and from their overvalued McMansions.

Oil went too high and the global economy entered a state of severe malfunction. I’ve often taken issue with some of my fellow Peak Oilsters who believe that it is to the moon with the price of oil. The spot price of WTI is just a silly little (almost insignificant) number. At some price point, the economy breaks. Voluntarily or not, the citizens of the world accept an adjustment to their standard of living, oil recovers, rinse and repeat.[/quote]

I agree we hit a ceiling. I’d venture to guess even a healthy, and we are far from, globalized economy would start breaking down around $250 or so. The food riots that popped up all over the world a few months back are a good example of the kind of chaos high oil prices can bring.

After following the converging crises of peak oil and the credit bubble over the past few years. It looks like the implosion of our economy took care of high oil prices. I just find it interesting that the American consumer the main culprit in sucking up all the oil got shot dead in it’s tracks just has peak took hold. TPTB hit reset.

[peterb]

Hedge funds make a bubble in anything they all get attracted to. But I hear they’re starting fall apart. So maybe we’ll get less bubble activity in 2009? Sure looks that way now. Ouch.

[peterb]

Hedge funds make a bubble in anything they all get attracted to. But I hear they’re starting fall apart. So maybe we’ll get less bubble activity in 2009? Sure looks that way now. Ouch.

[peterb]

Hedge funds make a bubble in anything they all get attracted to. But I hear they’re starting fall apart. So maybe we’ll get less bubble activity in 2009? Sure looks that way now. Ouch.

[peterb]

Hedge funds make a bubble in anything they all get attracted to. But I hear they’re starting fall apart. So maybe we’ll get less bubble activity in 2009? Sure looks that way now. Ouch.

[peterb]

Hedge funds make a bubble in anything they all get attracted to. But I hear they’re starting fall apart. So maybe we’ll get less bubble activity in 2009? Sure looks that way now. Ouch.

[Arraya]

http://postcarbon.org/end_growth

Several of us who have been watching the world oil production and depletion picture closely for the last few years are now concluding that the world has now seen the highest rate of production ever. Matt Simmons agrees: It’s all downhill from here.

The worldwide financial crisis, and the decline in available energy, mean that we may also have seen the final year of aggregate world economic growth.

This is a breathtaking statement. I found myself uttering it yesterday at a strategy meeting of some environmental and economic justice organizations organized by the International Forum on Globalization; I surprised even myself, and immediately began wondering whether what I had said could possibly by true.

snip

But imagine yourself talking to someone who has just lost her job. You tell this person, “You need to voluntarily further reduce your income and standard of living.” How’s that likely to go over?

Effective strategy demands recognition of the opportunities and limits of the unique historical moment. It seems that we have just moved from one historic moment to a very different one. In this situation, it’s more helpful to tell people (including policy makers) how to effectively deal with their immediate problems in a way that is consistent with long-term sustainability. Anything else will be irrelevant at best, extremely unwelcome at worst.

Growth is dead. Let’s make the most of it. A crisis is a terrible thing to waste.

[Arraya]

http://postcarbon.org/end_growth

Several of us who have been watching the world oil production and depletion picture closely for the last few years are now concluding that the world has now seen the highest rate of production ever. Matt Simmons agrees: It’s all downhill from here.

The worldwide financial crisis, and the decline in available energy, mean that we may also have seen the final year of aggregate world economic growth.

This is a breathtaking statement. I found myself uttering it yesterday at a strategy meeting of some environmental and economic justice organizations organized by the International Forum on Globalization; I surprised even myself, and immediately began wondering whether what I had said could possibly by true.

snip

But imagine yourself talking to someone who has just lost her job. You tell this person, “You need to voluntarily further reduce your income and standard of living.” How’s that likely to go over?

Effective strategy demands recognition of the opportunities and limits of the unique historical moment. It seems that we have just moved from one historic moment to a very different one. In this situation, it’s more helpful to tell people (including policy makers) how to effectively deal with their immediate problems in a way that is consistent with long-term sustainability. Anything else will be irrelevant at best, extremely unwelcome at worst.

Growth is dead. Let’s make the most of it. A crisis is a terrible thing to waste.

[Arraya]

http://postcarbon.org/end_growth

Several of us who have been watching the world oil production and depletion picture closely for the last few years are now concluding that the world has now seen the highest rate of production ever. Matt Simmons agrees: It’s all downhill from here.

The worldwide financial crisis, and the decline in available energy, mean that we may also have seen the final year of aggregate world economic growth.

This is a breathtaking statement. I found myself uttering it yesterday at a strategy meeting of some environmental and economic justice organizations organized by the International Forum on Globalization; I surprised even myself, and immediately began wondering whether what I had said could possibly by true.

snip

But imagine yourself talking to someone who has just lost her job. You tell this person, “You need to voluntarily further reduce your income and standard of living.” How’s that likely to go over?

Effective strategy demands recognition of the opportunities and limits of the unique historical moment. It seems that we have just moved from one historic moment to a very different one. In this situation, it’s more helpful to tell people (including policy makers) how to effectively deal with their immediate problems in a way that is consistent with long-term sustainability. Anything else will be irrelevant at best, extremely unwelcome at worst.

Growth is dead. Let’s make the most of it. A crisis is a terrible thing to waste.

[Arraya]

http://postcarbon.org/end_growth

Several of us who have been watching the world oil production and depletion picture closely for the last few years are now concluding that the world has now seen the highest rate of production ever. Matt Simmons agrees: It’s all downhill from here.

The worldwide financial crisis, and the decline in available energy, mean that we may also have seen the final year of aggregate world economic growth.

This is a breathtaking statement. I found myself uttering it yesterday at a strategy meeting of some environmental and economic justice organizations organized by the International Forum on Globalization; I surprised even myself, and immediately began wondering whether what I had said could possibly by true.

snip

But imagine yourself talking to someone who has just lost her job. You tell this person, “You need to voluntarily further reduce your income and standard of living.” How’s that likely to go over?

Effective strategy demands recognition of the opportunities and limits of the unique historical moment. It seems that we have just moved from one historic moment to a very different one. In this situation, it’s more helpful to tell people (including policy makers) how to effectively deal with their immediate problems in a way that is consistent with long-term sustainability. Anything else will be irrelevant at best, extremely unwelcome at worst.

Growth is dead. Let’s make the most of it. A crisis is a terrible thing to waste.

[Author]

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