Not even close to a bottom

[XBoxBoy]

[quote=jetonejet]I have a hard time understanding peoples logic
[/quote]

This is one of the main lessons that economics needs to take away from the current housing/financial crisis. People are not logical! We like to think we are but we just aren’t. Most of our opinions are based on what we hear from others we trust, not on data or real facts. We trust general consensus far more than we trust ourselves to look at data and make up our own minds.

There are incredible social implications to this lack of logic, from marketing to politics, but that’s really a topic for another thread.

XBoxBoy

[jetonejet]

[quote=peterb]I’ll pose the counter to this. Some area’s now have home mortgages that rival rents with a 20% down fixed 30 year mortgage AND the replacement cost is probably 30% more than the sales cost. These are compelling arguements for those that have been waiting on the sidelines for many years now. “Pent-up demand” if you will.

To counter these facts, I would propose that prices are determined primarily by demand. Rents can go down as well as home prices if demand drops off. As for replacement costs…do we need more houses built anytime soon??!

BUT, I agree with you. The trend is just starting from what I can see. Unemployment is now gathering momentum at a historic pace. This will cause net migration out of CA as well as increased density in the rental market. In a credit based economy and a highly leveraged industry like RE, employment is everything. The debt must be sustainable or all bets are off. This recession is about a year old. Most run several years. Where will we be in 2011??[/quote]

2011? Im not normally a pessimist, but I am really starting to believe in the lost decade in japan theory. We are following the exact same path.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_asset_price_bubble

[jetonejet]

[quote=peterb]I’ll pose the counter to this. Some area’s now have home mortgages that rival rents with a 20% down fixed 30 year mortgage AND the replacement cost is probably 30% more than the sales cost. These are compelling arguements for those that have been waiting on the sidelines for many years now. “Pent-up demand” if you will.

To counter these facts, I would propose that prices are determined primarily by demand. Rents can go down as well as home prices if demand drops off. As for replacement costs…do we need more houses built anytime soon??!

BUT, I agree with you. The trend is just starting from what I can see. Unemployment is now gathering momentum at a historic pace. This will cause net migration out of CA as well as increased density in the rental market. In a credit based economy and a highly leveraged industry like RE, employment is everything. The debt must be sustainable or all bets are off. This recession is about a year old. Most run several years. Where will we be in 2011??[/quote]

2011? Im not normally a pessimist, but I am really starting to believe in the lost decade in japan theory. We are following the exact same path.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_asset_price_bubble

[jetonejet]

[quote=peterb]I’ll pose the counter to this. Some area’s now have home mortgages that rival rents with a 20% down fixed 30 year mortgage AND the replacement cost is probably 30% more than the sales cost. These are compelling arguements for those that have been waiting on the sidelines for many years now. “Pent-up demand” if you will.

To counter these facts, I would propose that prices are determined primarily by demand. Rents can go down as well as home prices if demand drops off. As for replacement costs…do we need more houses built anytime soon??!

BUT, I agree with you. The trend is just starting from what I can see. Unemployment is now gathering momentum at a historic pace. This will cause net migration out of CA as well as increased density in the rental market. In a credit based economy and a highly leveraged industry like RE, employment is everything. The debt must be sustainable or all bets are off. This recession is about a year old. Most run several years. Where will we be in 2011??[/quote]

2011? Im not normally a pessimist, but I am really starting to believe in the lost decade in japan theory. We are following the exact same path.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_asset_price_bubble

[jetonejet]

[quote=peterb]I’ll pose the counter to this. Some area’s now have home mortgages that rival rents with a 20% down fixed 30 year mortgage AND the replacement cost is probably 30% more than the sales cost. These are compelling arguements for those that have been waiting on the sidelines for many years now. “Pent-up demand” if you will.

To counter these facts, I would propose that prices are determined primarily by demand. Rents can go down as well as home prices if demand drops off. As for replacement costs…do we need more houses built anytime soon??!

BUT, I agree with you. The trend is just starting from what I can see. Unemployment is now gathering momentum at a historic pace. This will cause net migration out of CA as well as increased density in the rental market. In a credit based economy and a highly leveraged industry like RE, employment is everything. The debt must be sustainable or all bets are off. This recession is about a year old. Most run several years. Where will we be in 2011??[/quote]

2011? Im not normally a pessimist, but I am really starting to believe in the lost decade in japan theory. We are following the exact same path.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_asset_price_bubble

[jetonejet]

[quote=peterb]I’ll pose the counter to this. Some area’s now have home mortgages that rival rents with a 20% down fixed 30 year mortgage AND the replacement cost is probably 30% more than the sales cost. These are compelling arguements for those that have been waiting on the sidelines for many years now. “Pent-up demand” if you will.

To counter these facts, I would propose that prices are determined primarily by demand. Rents can go down as well as home prices if demand drops off. As for replacement costs…do we need more houses built anytime soon??!

BUT, I agree with you. The trend is just starting from what I can see. Unemployment is now gathering momentum at a historic pace. This will cause net migration out of CA as well as increased density in the rental market. In a credit based economy and a highly leveraged industry like RE, employment is everything. The debt must be sustainable or all bets are off. This recession is about a year old. Most run several years. Where will we be in 2011??[/quote]

2011? Im not normally a pessimist, but I am really starting to believe in the lost decade in japan theory. We are following the exact same path.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_asset_price_bubble

[sd_bear]

jetonejet, I hear the same stuff where I work all the time. Everyone raves about how you totally need to jump in now while the prices are cheap. It certainly is frustrating but I just keep my mouth shut.

In reality its just confirmation that we aren’t at the bottom, because when we get there, nobody will want to buy.

[sd_bear]

jetonejet, I hear the same stuff where I work all the time. Everyone raves about how you totally need to jump in now while the prices are cheap. It certainly is frustrating but I just keep my mouth shut.

In reality its just confirmation that we aren’t at the bottom, because when we get there, nobody will want to buy.

[sd_bear]

jetonejet, I hear the same stuff where I work all the time. Everyone raves about how you totally need to jump in now while the prices are cheap. It certainly is frustrating but I just keep my mouth shut.

In reality its just confirmation that we aren’t at the bottom, because when we get there, nobody will want to buy.

[sd_bear]

jetonejet, I hear the same stuff where I work all the time. Everyone raves about how you totally need to jump in now while the prices are cheap. It certainly is frustrating but I just keep my mouth shut.

In reality its just confirmation that we aren’t at the bottom, because when we get there, nobody will want to buy.

[sd_bear]

jetonejet, I hear the same stuff where I work all the time. Everyone raves about how you totally need to jump in now while the prices are cheap. It certainly is frustrating but I just keep my mouth shut.

In reality its just confirmation that we aren’t at the bottom, because when we get there, nobody will want to buy.

[gn]

[quote=Casca]Check out the Chinese knife catching tour:

http://www.nbclosangeles.com/around_town/real_estate/Chinese_Scoop_Up_SoCal_Foreclosures_Los_Angeles.html

[/quote]

During the 80s, when the Japanese were flush with money, they spent serious amounts of money to buy up US assets, only to see the values of those assets plummet in the years after that.

A few years ago, some middle eastern investor bought John Laing (yes, the home builder with financial problems in the news recently).

Now, it’s the Chinese scooping up REOs, thinking they are bargains.

What they all fail to understand about real estate is this: Among the different types of assets, real estate is the “ultimate momentum market”. Once, the direction of the market turns, it’s suicidal to go against the tide.

[gn]

[quote=Casca]Check out the Chinese knife catching tour:

http://www.nbclosangeles.com/around_town/real_estate/Chinese_Scoop_Up_SoCal_Foreclosures_Los_Angeles.html

[/quote]

During the 80s, when the Japanese were flush with money, they spent serious amounts of money to buy up US assets, only to see the values of those assets plummet in the years after that.

A few years ago, some middle eastern investor bought John Laing (yes, the home builder with financial problems in the news recently).

Now, it’s the Chinese scooping up REOs, thinking they are bargains.

What they all fail to understand about real estate is this: Among the different types of assets, real estate is the “ultimate momentum market”. Once, the direction of the market turns, it’s suicidal to go against the tide.

[gn]

[quote=Casca]Check out the Chinese knife catching tour:

http://www.nbclosangeles.com/around_town/real_estate/Chinese_Scoop_Up_SoCal_Foreclosures_Los_Angeles.html

[/quote]

During the 80s, when the Japanese were flush with money, they spent serious amounts of money to buy up US assets, only to see the values of those assets plummet in the years after that.

A few years ago, some middle eastern investor bought John Laing (yes, the home builder with financial problems in the news recently).

Now, it’s the Chinese scooping up REOs, thinking they are bargains.

What they all fail to understand about real estate is this: Among the different types of assets, real estate is the “ultimate momentum market”. Once, the direction of the market turns, it’s suicidal to go against the tide.

[gn]

[quote=Casca]Check out the Chinese knife catching tour:

http://www.nbclosangeles.com/around_town/real_estate/Chinese_Scoop_Up_SoCal_Foreclosures_Los_Angeles.html

[/quote]

During the 80s, when the Japanese were flush with money, they spent serious amounts of money to buy up US assets, only to see the values of those assets plummet in the years after that.

A few years ago, some middle eastern investor bought John Laing (yes, the home builder with financial problems in the news recently).

Now, it’s the Chinese scooping up REOs, thinking they are bargains.

What they all fail to understand about real estate is this: Among the different types of assets, real estate is the “ultimate momentum market”. Once, the direction of the market turns, it’s suicidal to go against the tide.

[Author]

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