Not even close to a bottom

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I believe that we are close to the bottom as measured by SFR median price in San Diego.

Part of the reason is technical (the sales mix is skewed to the low end and will skew upward as higher priced markets tank and become more affordable).

The other part is fundamental : Affordability ratio for starter areas is favorable.

[sdchris]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan]I believe that we are close to the bottom as measured by SFR median price in San Diego.

Part of the reason is technical (the sales mix is skewed to the low end and will skew upward as higher priced markets tank and become more affordable).

The other part is fundamental : Affordability ratio for starter areas is favorable.

[/quote]

I’m not sure why everyone loves to say we are close to the bottom. The eyes are deceiving, fellow poster. Sometimes they see ghosts, jesus in a pancake, and bottoms and tops.

I can’t stress this enough: The housing market is not liquid! You cannot be in today and out tomorrow for a quick buck. You’re better off sticking your money into FDIC insured accounts until the Fed starts jacking up interest rates.

[sdchris]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan]I believe that we are close to the bottom as measured by SFR median price in San Diego.

Part of the reason is technical (the sales mix is skewed to the low end and will skew upward as higher priced markets tank and become more affordable).

The other part is fundamental : Affordability ratio for starter areas is favorable.

[/quote]

I’m not sure why everyone loves to say we are close to the bottom. The eyes are deceiving, fellow poster. Sometimes they see ghosts, jesus in a pancake, and bottoms and tops.

I can’t stress this enough: The housing market is not liquid! You cannot be in today and out tomorrow for a quick buck. You’re better off sticking your money into FDIC insured accounts until the Fed starts jacking up interest rates.

[sdchris]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan]I believe that we are close to the bottom as measured by SFR median price in San Diego.

Part of the reason is technical (the sales mix is skewed to the low end and will skew upward as higher priced markets tank and become more affordable).

The other part is fundamental : Affordability ratio for starter areas is favorable.

[/quote]

I’m not sure why everyone loves to say we are close to the bottom. The eyes are deceiving, fellow poster. Sometimes they see ghosts, jesus in a pancake, and bottoms and tops.

I can’t stress this enough: The housing market is not liquid! You cannot be in today and out tomorrow for a quick buck. You’re better off sticking your money into FDIC insured accounts until the Fed starts jacking up interest rates.

[sdchris]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan]I believe that we are close to the bottom as measured by SFR median price in San Diego.

Part of the reason is technical (the sales mix is skewed to the low end and will skew upward as higher priced markets tank and become more affordable).

The other part is fundamental : Affordability ratio for starter areas is favorable.

[/quote]

I’m not sure why everyone loves to say we are close to the bottom. The eyes are deceiving, fellow poster. Sometimes they see ghosts, jesus in a pancake, and bottoms and tops.

I can’t stress this enough: The housing market is not liquid! You cannot be in today and out tomorrow for a quick buck. You’re better off sticking your money into FDIC insured accounts until the Fed starts jacking up interest rates.

[sdchris]

[quote=FormerSanDiegan]I believe that we are close to the bottom as measured by SFR median price in San Diego.

Part of the reason is technical (the sales mix is skewed to the low end and will skew upward as higher priced markets tank and become more affordable).

The other part is fundamental : Affordability ratio for starter areas is favorable.

[/quote]

I’m not sure why everyone loves to say we are close to the bottom. The eyes are deceiving, fellow poster. Sometimes they see ghosts, jesus in a pancake, and bottoms and tops.

I can’t stress this enough: The housing market is not liquid! You cannot be in today and out tomorrow for a quick buck. You’re better off sticking your money into FDIC insured accounts until the Fed starts jacking up interest rates.

[patientrenter]

[quote=arnie]….From what I have been reading here, I am coming to the two following conclusions.

First, that the Federal efforts to fix housing are being made to help out owners of houses that are close to the national median price. San Diego is so off the charts compared to the rest of the country that most of the impact from the Federal government is not going to be felt here as opposed to, say, Iowa.

Second, that the Federal efforts to fix housing are in no way intended to prop up prices or to re-inflate the bubble. At this point, they know it will go down further, but are trying to prevent an overcorrection that is often seen in the aftermath of an asset bubble.

Having said that, I agree that the bottom is nowhere near in San Diego and, because of the above, that it will take longer and not have the deep overcorrection that many here have been hoping for.[/quote]

Arnie, the politicians pushing trillions of taxpayer money into housing now are not trying to restrict the benefit to low-value areas. Barney Frank is my local rep, and he is just as concerned about lawyers and doctors and others losing hundreds of thousands from their million-dollar Boston homes as he is about the “poor people” losing their last $1000 on a $100K home. (There aren’t any $100K homes in Boston.) Same is true for Chris Dodd, and Nancy Pelosi. Paupers and house millionaires have the same vote, so all are catered to, but the house millionaires usually contribute a little more at the PAC, so they get a little extra attention.

[patientrenter]

[quote=arnie]….From what I have been reading here, I am coming to the two following conclusions.

First, that the Federal efforts to fix housing are being made to help out owners of houses that are close to the national median price. San Diego is so off the charts compared to the rest of the country that most of the impact from the Federal government is not going to be felt here as opposed to, say, Iowa.

Second, that the Federal efforts to fix housing are in no way intended to prop up prices or to re-inflate the bubble. At this point, they know it will go down further, but are trying to prevent an overcorrection that is often seen in the aftermath of an asset bubble.

Having said that, I agree that the bottom is nowhere near in San Diego and, because of the above, that it will take longer and not have the deep overcorrection that many here have been hoping for.[/quote]

Arnie, the politicians pushing trillions of taxpayer money into housing now are not trying to restrict the benefit to low-value areas. Barney Frank is my local rep, and he is just as concerned about lawyers and doctors and others losing hundreds of thousands from their million-dollar Boston homes as he is about the “poor people” losing their last $1000 on a $100K home. (There aren’t any $100K homes in Boston.) Same is true for Chris Dodd, and Nancy Pelosi. Paupers and house millionaires have the same vote, so all are catered to, but the house millionaires usually contribute a little more at the PAC, so they get a little extra attention.

[patientrenter]

[quote=arnie]….From what I have been reading here, I am coming to the two following conclusions.

First, that the Federal efforts to fix housing are being made to help out owners of houses that are close to the national median price. San Diego is so off the charts compared to the rest of the country that most of the impact from the Federal government is not going to be felt here as opposed to, say, Iowa.

Second, that the Federal efforts to fix housing are in no way intended to prop up prices or to re-inflate the bubble. At this point, they know it will go down further, but are trying to prevent an overcorrection that is often seen in the aftermath of an asset bubble.

Having said that, I agree that the bottom is nowhere near in San Diego and, because of the above, that it will take longer and not have the deep overcorrection that many here have been hoping for.[/quote]

Arnie, the politicians pushing trillions of taxpayer money into housing now are not trying to restrict the benefit to low-value areas. Barney Frank is my local rep, and he is just as concerned about lawyers and doctors and others losing hundreds of thousands from their million-dollar Boston homes as he is about the “poor people” losing their last $1000 on a $100K home. (There aren’t any $100K homes in Boston.) Same is true for Chris Dodd, and Nancy Pelosi. Paupers and house millionaires have the same vote, so all are catered to, but the house millionaires usually contribute a little more at the PAC, so they get a little extra attention.

[patientrenter]

[quote=arnie]….From what I have been reading here, I am coming to the two following conclusions.

First, that the Federal efforts to fix housing are being made to help out owners of houses that are close to the national median price. San Diego is so off the charts compared to the rest of the country that most of the impact from the Federal government is not going to be felt here as opposed to, say, Iowa.

Second, that the Federal efforts to fix housing are in no way intended to prop up prices or to re-inflate the bubble. At this point, they know it will go down further, but are trying to prevent an overcorrection that is often seen in the aftermath of an asset bubble.

Having said that, I agree that the bottom is nowhere near in San Diego and, because of the above, that it will take longer and not have the deep overcorrection that many here have been hoping for.[/quote]

Arnie, the politicians pushing trillions of taxpayer money into housing now are not trying to restrict the benefit to low-value areas. Barney Frank is my local rep, and he is just as concerned about lawyers and doctors and others losing hundreds of thousands from their million-dollar Boston homes as he is about the “poor people” losing their last $1000 on a $100K home. (There aren’t any $100K homes in Boston.) Same is true for Chris Dodd, and Nancy Pelosi. Paupers and house millionaires have the same vote, so all are catered to, but the house millionaires usually contribute a little more at the PAC, so they get a little extra attention.

[patientrenter]

[quote=arnie]….From what I have been reading here, I am coming to the two following conclusions.

First, that the Federal efforts to fix housing are being made to help out owners of houses that are close to the national median price. San Diego is so off the charts compared to the rest of the country that most of the impact from the Federal government is not going to be felt here as opposed to, say, Iowa.

Second, that the Federal efforts to fix housing are in no way intended to prop up prices or to re-inflate the bubble. At this point, they know it will go down further, but are trying to prevent an overcorrection that is often seen in the aftermath of an asset bubble.

Having said that, I agree that the bottom is nowhere near in San Diego and, because of the above, that it will take longer and not have the deep overcorrection that many here have been hoping for.[/quote]

Arnie, the politicians pushing trillions of taxpayer money into housing now are not trying to restrict the benefit to low-value areas. Barney Frank is my local rep, and he is just as concerned about lawyers and doctors and others losing hundreds of thousands from their million-dollar Boston homes as he is about the “poor people” losing their last $1000 on a $100K home. (There aren’t any $100K homes in Boston.) Same is true for Chris Dodd, and Nancy Pelosi. Paupers and house millionaires have the same vote, so all are catered to, but the house millionaires usually contribute a little more at the PAC, so they get a little extra attention.

[jficquette]

No your not crazy. We are just in the third inning in all of this.

John

[jficquette]

No your not crazy. We are just in the third inning in all of this.

John

[jficquette]

No your not crazy. We are just in the third inning in all of this.

John

[jficquette]

No your not crazy. We are just in the third inning in all of this.

John

[Author]

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