North County Coastal monitor

[DaCounselor]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=sdrealtor]Really interested to see what that house ends up going for as it is really the perfect lot to add an ADU and there’s a very good chance the buyer is looking at it that way. Would help to get an idea as to what someone would value a lot like that over and above what the house alone would sell for.

In case anyone is interested this is the house in question

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2878-Avenida-Cereza-Carlsbad-CA-92009/59308886_zpid/%5B/quote%5D

House in question just closed for $2M. Just wow[/quote]

I really have no words at this point.

So now one question is will a bigger Davidson home in LCV close at $2.5 mil in 2022? And why stop there – what about $3 mil for a buffed out jumbo Davidson? Can it happen? LOL as I type this knowing that it’s not impossible. All you need is one person who is going to buy that house no matter what it takes, and that seems to be the mentality.

[sdrealtor]

We could see those numbers but this year will likely take a premium lot and location. I’m interested to see what buyers do on that lot. Wide range of possibilities there

[sdrealtor]

New listings 17

New Pendings of 14 – less and less to buy

Thats +3

Closed sales at 23 –

Price reductions at 5 (all very high priced homes)

Total houses for sale 55 with median of $2.5M

Should slow down here also if seasonal patterns hold.

Market here for a house is now $1M if not $1.2M. How did we get here?

[sdrealtor]

New listings 11 – steady dropping into holidays

New Pendings of 23 – buyers still very active

Thats -12

Closed sales at 23 –

Price reductions at 5 (all very high priced homes)

Total houses for sale 54 with median of $2.375M

Seasonal pattern of listing volume seems to be settling in while no let up in buyers. The spring winds tighter

[sdrealtor]

New listings 11 – steady dropping into holidays

New Pendings of 21 – buyers still very active

Thats -10

Closed sales at 14 –

Price reductions at 2 (all very high priced homes)

Total houses for sale 48 with median of $2.29M

I now have inventory count going back a year. This time last year inventory was very low. Now its down almost 50% from last year. The market below $1M is essentially gone and even below $1.25M its neglible. Regardless of what any national media may be saying and what is happening else where we are heading int next year in a very strong market even unprecendentedly strong

[sdrealtor]

New listings 15 – steady dropping into holidays

New Pendings of 23 – buyers still very active

Thats -8

Closed sales at 20 –

Price reductions at 0

Total houses for sale 47 with median of $2.5M

I got my hands on a report with lots of data for SD County.

They looked at appreciation by size of home. Here are the top cities for each 1-4

1700 SQ FT House – Encinitas, Carmel Valley, Scripps, PQ
2500 sq ft house – 4S/RB, Carlsbad, Poway, PQ
3500 sq ft house – PQ, Encinitas, Scripps, Carlsbad

Pretty much all in San Dieguito and Poway school districts. Thats where the action was this year

[sdrealtor]

Wanted to get this one in early before holiday shutdown also. We expect the market to be mostly shut down by now. Homes listed now are more than likely vacant. Who would want to list their home over the holidays if they didnt have to? Why not wait for the early Spring rush to begin at this point. Lets see what we got

New listings 10 – steady dropping into holidays

New Pendings of 25 – buyers still very active

Thats -15

Closed sales at 27 –

Price reductions at 1

Total houses for sale 36 with median of $2.0M

This time last year inventory was historically low at 86. We are in unchartered territory. Looking through the inventory I see a bunch that will see in the next few weeks. Most of the new listings are vacant and often long term rentals or estate/probate sales. There are some high priced fishing expeditions going on. There are 5 priced at $5M+ but we had two in that range go pending this week. Everything is selling in every price range.

Verdict: Will see double digit pendings the next couple weeks clearing out whats left and sellable but mostly shut down here. This is a big market that should open the year barren of inventory. Like walking into a near empty Costco. I hope sellers come out to meet the demand next year and those that do should have a solid plan in place as to where they going next. Double digit appreciation in the bag next year

[sdrealtor]

New listings 6 – steady dropping into holidays

New Pendings of 14 – buyers still very active

Thats -8

Closed sales at 10 –

Price reductions at 0

Total houses for sale 33 with median of $2.35M

This time last year inventory was 84 so a 60% decline from what was a historically low inventory last year. As expected double digit pendings but not by much as there isnt all that much to buy. There are about 15-20 of those that are very high end, dramatically overpriced or have issues that make them difficult to sell. Some may give up and would not be surprised to see inventory bottom out around 20 by year end but that would take some doing.

Dont expect much to report next month

[sdrealtor]

No better here

New listings 10 – six of those went into escrow after a day or two

New Pendings of 15 – counselors are standing by

Thats -5

Closed sales at 31 –

Price reductions at 5 – just silly to reduce the overpriced home you’ve sat on for months now. Mights as well stick to your price and wait until Spring

Total houses for sale 28 with median of $2.675M. This time last year we had 79

[sdrealtor]

New listings 7 – mostly tenant occupied or prior rental

New Pendings of 12 –

Thats -5

Closed sales at 21 –

Price reductions at 1 –

Total houses for sale 31 with median of $2.295M.

Much of the new inventorty this week is vacant or tenant occupied which makes ense. If your lease ended or will soon and you want to sell best to get it on the market rather than leaving it empty or renting it for an other year. If you want out no time like the present

Looking at the rest nearly all is challenging to sell due to price point , being overpriced or having some other issue that makes it challenging

[sdrealtor]

New listings 5 – mostly tenant occupied or prior rental

New Pendings of 16 –

Thats -11

Closed sales at 11 –

Price reductions at 0 –

Total houses for sale 24 with median of $2.512M.

Another very large market albeit mostly a luxury market now. These 3 zips are home to nearly 140K residents. This time last year there were 54. Most of what is left on the market is very high end $3M+ or has some issue making the sale difficult if not impossible. Virtually nothing for sale here either

[yipla]

Not sure if this is the right thread for this, but wondering what people here would advise me to do. I bought a 3/2 SFR in Clairemont in 2014 and a 3/2 SFR in south University City in 2017. We’ve just got a new place on an acre a little further north that we think will be the place we stay long-term. We never expected prices to go up so much on our prior homes. It’s tempting to sell them now or soon. What do you all think?

[sdrealtor]

So did you move out of Clairemont in 17? If so you can’t take tax free capital gains on it. I’d think about holding it longer term. If you just moved out of UC place I’d give it another year, if you don’t sell it then revisit two years after you moved out to decide if worth taking cap gains 2 out of 5 years exclusion while still available. Was that clear ?

[yipla]

Yes, that’s right I can’t take cap gains on Clairemont. What’s are good reasons for holding long term? Long term is not work-free… Rents commanded are not a ton more than my mortgage and maintenance costs. In fact, I don’t think I’ve yet broken even with the maintenance I had to do in the years I’ve rented it out. Perhaps those deferred maintenance issues are done now, and I won’t have as many large expenses anymore. If I sell, even without cap gains exclusion benefits, I would still cash out a decent chunk and could just dump it into the stock market. Maybe I’ll wait and see if Build Back Better actually passes and kills step-up in basis at death. Or maybe I just hold until these times of massive appreciation stop/slow.

I agree on UC. Plus our neighbor there is a real thorn.

[gzz]

Yipla, selling is middle class mindset. You’re an aristo now, even if only a jr grade new money baronet.

Hold forever, make it generational wealth, and do a cash-out refi if you feel the need for some cash. (I bet you don’t!)

“Cash flow after mortgage and expenses” is an arbitrary measure of value, as there’s no right type of mortgage. The same house that has a massive cash flow with a 30 year mortgage with 50% LTV has negative cash flow with a 10-year 90% LTV.

Also, I think if stepped up basis ever gets killed, it won’t be a complete kill, but just for assets or estates of more than $5 million or something like that. There’s other compromises beside a complete kill, like a basis of 50% of market value at death.

Regarding the neighbor, hold out longer and you win!

[Author]

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