North County Coastal monitor

[sdrealtor]

I’ll look but those were always kinda wonky floor plans

[sdrealtor]

Lol funny sitting in the middle of the family room. House needs more than a simple polectomy

[sdrealtor]

Its pending

[sdrealtor]

New listings 14 – slow but steady flow though seems skewed to high end

New Pendings of 26 – demand keeps chugging along

Thats -12!

Closed sales at 20 –

Price reductions at 5 – If you shot to high with your initial asking price its obvious now

Total houses for sale 66 with median of $2.3M.

Inventory fell slightly but new listings falling and steady demand so inventory likely to continue falling for the rest of the year

[sdrealtor]

New listings 9 – very low number

New Pendings of 26 – demand keeps chugging along

Thats -17!

Closed sales at 19 –

Price reductions at 2 – If you shot to high with your initial asking price its obvious now but with invetory so low I guess they figure why bother

Total houses for sale 59 with median of $2.3M.

This week last year we got 31 new listings and 37 sales with 87 on the market. This year only 9 new listings with demand still strong. Inventory is 30% lower and look what happened last Spring.

Prices feel stretched already but with this kind of imbalance I dont see how we get less than 10% appreciation up here next year. Making that call now

[XBoxBoy]

sdrealtor, what’s up with your math… Every week you report the number of houses for sale, and you also report the change.

Previously August 19 you reported 64 houses for sale, and then August 25 you reported 68 houses with a change of -13 but going from 64 to 68 isn’t -13, but +4. August 31 66 houses with a -12 (which should have been -2) Sept 8 you report 59 for sale, with -17 (which should be -7)

If nothing else I’ll give you that you’ve been consistently wrong every week.

[sdrealtor]

Sorry but they are not the same thing. I report how many more homes sell than hit the market but that isnt always reflected in homes on the market on a 1:1 basis. Two reasons are houses fall out of escrow (thats a +1) and houses get taken off the market (thats a -1). There are more reasons and this is not a perfect data set. Real estate data is self reported by thousands of realtors and every house/situation is different. Its why i always advise looking at all real estate data from askew.

It was never intended to be a hard and fast measure but multple measures to understand the direction and velocity of the action in the market. Does that make sense?

[XBoxBoy]

[quote=sdrealtor]It was never intended to be a hard and fast measure but multple measures to understand the direction and velocity of the action in the market. Does that make sense?[/quote]

Umm… not really. If you want to show the direction and velocity of the action in the market, new listings minus pendings isn’t a valid way to do that. Number of active listings this week minus number of active listings last week is the stat you’re looking for.

That being said, don’t take me wrong. I’ve enjoyed following this thread and appreciate the work you’ve put into.

[sdrealtor]

You’d think so but its not really. The real estate market is more than a bit funky so its best to track it multiple ways. Years ago I just tracked it that way and it did sync up with what was going on so i switched. With that said there is no perfect way, far from it. For me the key to to pick a couple and look at them consistently over time to get a feel for whats going on

As it is I need to make judgement calls along the way. Some examples, I remove new construction, twin homes that sometimes are listed as SFR, very small unliveable homes that are really land, homes that were sold off market and never really on the open market and a couple more categories. Its not perfect but its the best and I beleive most accurate way to do it.

[gzz]

What percentage of pending sales turn into a closing? Seems to be about ~95% in 92107 over the past few years. I’d think it would be even higher in your newer area (more standard product and less surprises) and current very tight conditions.

[sdrealtor]

Never tracked it but likely a good 10% fall out or higher. In a bigger market like this the numbers are more likely to be closer to the mean. Probably more than 5% there also. But in the end vast majority close all over around SD

[sdrealtor]

New listings 23 – back up to me typical levels

New Pendings of 24 – demand keeps chugging along

Thats -1!

Closed sales at 29 –

Price reductions at 6 -Some still struggling to get it right

Total houses for sale 61 with median of $2.3M.

Looking at closings most are closing at or around asking now. Still a few bidding wars but nothing like earlier this year. Looking like we will muddle through the rest of the year but watch out come Spring as the the spring will be getting wound tight the next few months

[evolusd]

sdrealtor – you see that one on Spar Ct for $1.5M that has a stripper pole? Ha! Went into escrow and fell out. Seems like a “deal”/sf given the area with a little money up front to improve some things (like removing the stripper pole).

[sdrealtor]

New listings 17 – back up to me typical levels

New Pendings of 26 – demand keeps chugging along

Thats -9!

Closed sales at 14 –

Price reductions at 6 -Some still struggling to get it right

Total houses for sale 60 with median of $2.3M. More than 1/3rd are very high priced ($3M+). The spring winds tighter

[sdrealtor]

New listings 11 – this is when new listings should typically fall off substantially

New Pendings of 22 – demand keeps chugging along

Thats -11

Closed sales at 21 –

Price reductions at 3

Total houses for sale 57 with median of $2.65M. The median list price is way up suggesting the low end inventory is thinner than ever.

I dug a bit deeper on that looking at the under $2M market. As of today there are 20 actives and 80 pendings. In a typical market we see 2 to 3 active for every pending. Today we have 4 pendings for every active. This feels like a powder keg

[Author]

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