North County Coastal monitor

[sdrealtor]

Update time along the NCC. Numbers for week ended yesterday. Inventory not building much here either.

New listings 29 – at least number held up from last week but really hoping for a lot more to help get prices under control

New Pendings of 33 – plenty of demand and we are pretty much at peak demand.

Thats a -4 for the week.

Closed sales at 33 –

Price reductions at 5

Total houses for sale 59 with median of $1.995M.

Prices still feel 30% higher year over year though not reflected in stats yet as data is a lagging indiocator. The homes are still in escrow that will verify that firmly. One year ago my home was on Zillow at 1.165M and today its at 1.415.When neighbor house closes in a week or so mine should go up at least $150K if not a lot more. It could literally show up around 40% y-o-y. Its been a crazy year

Last 2 weeks the 3 highest closed sales are $5.7M, $7M and $8M! And 5 closed sales between $3M and $4M. This is not your parent’s North Coutny

[Andrew32]

40% seems reachable at this pace. Our small new development community in 92011 switched from priority list to competitive bidding and I can tell you that bids (not even winning ones) for our floor plan are coming in 15%+ higher now than what we paid in December when we purchased at a set price.

[sdrealtor]

Congrats on getting in while you could. Remember you posting before and hopefully road completion is minimal impact

[Andrew32]

Road impact hasn’t been bad at all. It was nicer before it opened but we knew what was coming. We’ll see how busy it gets once everyone starts going back to the office and everyone in Bressi Ranch realizes it’s now their fastest way to the 5 south.

[profhoff]

Our Waters End house in SW C’bad hit the MLS yesterday. Video comes tomorrow. We’ll see how it goes:

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/6983-Sweetwater-St-92011/home/6562788

[svelte]

[quote=sdrealtor]Actually not a great lot or location for that neighborhood which I know well and have sold good ones there. I’ve sold this floor plan also and it’s got a few wonky issues with it. That was an average lot with a noisy pocket park behind it. It had little usable yard. [/quote]

At first blush it does seem nice until I look at it a bit more.

The grass in the front yard where the street bends…see all the bright green patches? Those are two or three dozen spots where neighborhood dogs have peed. At the center of each of those spots will be brown dead grass. The owner will have to patch that over and over again, endlessly. Very strange since there is a pocket park just a little farther down the road.

And if you look closely, someone has photoshopped that grass to make it look better. What we see there must be an improved version of reality. Yikes.

[sdrealtor]

yeah it’s funny somebody looks at a couple pictures and Google maps and thinks they know as much as I do when I’ve been inside the actual house, sold houses in the neighborhood, driven by that house hundreds of times and watched it sit on the market the first time when everything around it was selling much quicker and selling it full price. That said there’s nothing wrong with it it’s just average at best for what it is

The communities up around here really are my wheelhouse. I’ve lived here almost 30 years and sold real estate for most of that. I watched all these houses get built. I follow almost every single one that comes on the market. Suffice to say when I express an opinion on a specific property around here it comes with a very high degree of confidence. And the best deal that anyone got on one of the prime properties and locations in that tract during the last down turn? My clients on 0.4 acre mostly usable with a killer pool backyard in quiet location with sunny southern exposure for under 1 million. It would go over two million today. I’d put it head to head over any other sale in that neighborhood over the last 13 years.

[svelte]

Reading back over my comment, sounds like I dissed the house over the grass…I just went off on a tangent.

You’re right, basically a good house and location. Floor plan isn’t for me but I don’t blame anybody for buying it.

The floor plans in my neighborhood are top notch, the designer put a lot of thought into them and they are very live-able, yet there are some nearby homes that go for 5% more for the same SF. Floor plans aren’t near as good, but they have all the eye candy out front. I guess what it boils down to is I view the world differently than most people. Sometimes that helps me, sometimes it hurts me.

[sdrealtor]

Fwiw I was more referring to gzz commenting on the house and my opinion of the value and appreciation. Had no issues with your comment

[ncsd760]

Shocked at the appreciation of some of the “move-up” LCO homes. The one on Cte. Panorama backing to powerlines came with landscaping new and had no phenomenally crazy builder updates. Yes it has changed a few hands in about ten years but circa 2011-2012 those homes were usually 575k-725k(for models and some of that 2889sf floorplan) new and some of the ranches were low-mid 500s. Wild that that home just closed for 1.45M. Same for the one on Ste. Destino for $1.38. That one had better upgrades but probably more road noise and weird landscape.

Same thing for Cte Brezo. Back in the day that doesn’t feel long ago (but evidently is) half that street was a short sale for low 7s and the original owner already did your landscaping. Road noise sure but this was even before the shopping center was done. And then Cir. Sequoia was steadily 900-1M +/- 100k on either end given REO/short sale/ocean view. Which felt like a big amount of money then.

Just wild how times changed.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=ncsd760]Shocked at the appreciation of some of the “move-up” LCO homes. The one on Cte. Panorama backing to powerlines came with landscaping new and had no phenomenally crazy builder updates. Yes it has changed a few hands in about ten years but circa 2011-2012 those homes were usually 575k-725k(for models and some of that 2889sf floorplan) new and some of the ranches were low-mid 500s. Wild that that home just closed for 1.45M. Same for the one on Ste. Destino for $1.38. That one had better upgrades but probably more road noise and weird landscape.

Same thing for Cte Brezo. Back in the day that doesn’t feel long ago (but evidently is) half that street was a short sale for low 7s and the original owner already did your landscaping. Road noise sure but this was even before the shopping center was done. And then Cir. Sequoia was steadily 900-1M +/- 100k on either end given REO/short sale/ocean view. Which felt like a big amount of money then.

Just wild how times changed.[/quote]

Yup, exactly what Ive been talking about.In 09 my house was likely 725ish and now its 1.6ish. We are up at least 30% year over year in 92009 and now the comps are showing that and more. Most of this change has come since Feb.

BTW Destino houses are nicer than Panorama houses. Its just a much smaller one on Destino here

[sdrealtor]

Here’s another example.

Less than a year ago it struggled to sell. took 3 months as its under powerlines. Sold for $1.04

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/3435-Corte-Panorama-92009/home/22391443

Here is exact same model house in same location on same size lot a few doors down also under powerlines. This year…powerlines??? No problem!

It went into escrow 10 months after the one above. It sold in a few days for $1.45M.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/3457-Corte-Panorama-92009/home/22420804

Thats 39.4% in 10 months. Gotta be one of the hottest markets in the country. No gentrification here

[sdrealtor]

Ok the one Ive been waiting for just closed.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2360-Avenida-Helecho-Carlsbad-CA-92009/16712318_zpid/

This house shows on Zillow as 1.2M May 2020. Honestly Zillow was wrong and this time last year more like 1.25M maybe even 1.3M. I can hit this house with a pitching wedge from my driveway. BTW, its not 6BR (the first owner spent $1,000 enclosing the upstairs loft) and its not 2800 sq ft (I live in the same house and have the actual builders blue prints for these homes its 2686 sq ft).

At the higher valuation its 42% appreciation and at Zillow valuation its 54% y-o-y. Same floorplan sold 4 times last 9 months between 1.225 and 1.285. Two of those were very nice locations, one was a far inferior location and another was one of the 5 best lots/locations in a community of 1053 homes but needed a good 20K of overgrown tree removal. Starting to getting the comps that prove what I have been talking about the last month or so.

[Hobie]

[quote=profhoff]Our Waters End house in SW C’bad hit the MLS yesterday. Video comes tomorrow. We’ll see how it goes:

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/6983-Sweetwater-St-92011/home/6562788%5B/quote%5D

Are there many AirBnb’s in your area so close to beach? Can’t remember which one but one HOA had very stiff fine $2k for short term rentals. Of course overturned by new law with 30 day min leases.

[profhoff]

Waters End has 30 day min. I don’t think there are any Airbnb’s close to us that rent for less than 30 days.

[Author]

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