North County Coastal monitor

[sdrealtor]

[quote=Andrew32]No view but a friend’s 1-story Encinitas home just went for above asking.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1080-Balour-Dr-Encinitas-CA-92024/16720405_zpid/?

2 years and +$300k with no $ put into the home. It was purchased renovated as a flip (check the 2018 sale price).[/quote]

Sounds about right.

[profhoff]

sold for $300k over list, pending in 5 days, 1000 sq ft, 70+ years old bungalow, teeny tiny 4000 sq ft lot likely limits potential, but hey, they’re not building any more land, especially this close to the beach!

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Encinitas/135-Phoebe-St-92024/home/6312551

[sdrealtor]

Pretty much land value. My guess is new modern house with roof top deck in a few years. 4000 sq ft is about all you get that close to the ocean

[sdrealtor]

[quote=sdrealtor]More of the same

New listings 30 – little better but not close to whats needed

New Pendings of 32 – still a buyer for any decent listing!

Thats a -2 for the week.

Closed sales at 25

Price reductions at 1. Price reduced from $6.6M to $6.4M.

Total houses for sale down to 53 with median of $1.999M. (note: ran numbers earlier today and when I just rechecked before posting its already back down to 48)

In Sept a model match to my house sold for $1.24M with the best lot in the community (13,000 sq ft canyon view lot with pool and plenty of room to add pool house or ADU). Tonight a model match closed for 1.275M in poor condition with no upgrades since it was built in 99 on a small lot on a busy corner. These represent the same model but the best vs the worst home in my tract. Today the best one could go for close to 1.5M. The market has changed that much that fast.

We should have an even more compelling example soon There’s a house nearby that sold January 2020 for $1.34M. It came back on 13 months later and is in escrow with asking price of $1.679M. It went almost immediately. When it closes we will know how much the y-o-y appreciation has been with a matched pair. It should be at least 25%. I dont know what else to say.[/quote]

The house I was waiting for just closed. Here it is.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/3280-Avenida-La-Cima-92009/home/6540371

Went into escrow Dec 2019 and closed mid Jan 2020 for $1.34M.

Went back on the market mid Feb 2021 with no changes made to the house at 1.699M

Closed yesterday for $1.725M just short of $400K appreciation in just over one year.

Thats 28.7% in about a year.

Lets call it 30% y-o-y. Thats not a stretch

[sdrealtor]

Update time up in gridlocked nirvana. No let up!

New listings 19 – big drop off. People must be busy working on their taxe….Oh nevermind!

New Pendings of 37 – buyers surging too!

Thats a -18 for the week.

Closed sales at 45 –

Price reductions at 3

Total houses for sale 55 with median of $1.995M.

Quick note about methodology.

I only include new listings that hit the market. Some are entered into the MLS as sold or in escrow before processing so never available to buyers at large.

That is one reason we can have a lot more pendings than new listings without inventory increasing. The other is some sales come back on the market so not new listing. Of course they re sell quickly often for more but that is another matter.

The circus comes to town tomorrow as a home within earshot finally allows showing after a week of “coming soon” status. Im looking forward to my front row seat

Anecdote from the field talking to some high volume agents in CV. The market above $3M is starting to slow down a little while below that it rages on. Up until this year $2M+ was considered high end but now many tract homes go above $2M. Now the high end starts around $3 – 3.5M along the coast

[gzz]

25% price increases not enough to get people to sell!

I posted this here in May and July 2019, pretty good calls in retrospect:

“I believe in 6 months the market will be about 4% higher. So your $1.2m house will be $48k more expensive…. I’d say buy ASAP.”

“A lot of wealth will be generated and saved in 2019. Where will it head, to the stagnant economies with negative yields of Japan/EU? The politically unstable developing world, which lacks strong property rights?

Or the USA, booming, strong yields, stable currency, strongest investor protections, very low taxes on investments/wealth?

A perfectly plausible scenario: yield convergence sends 30-year mortgages below 3%, prices rise sharply, a new bubble forms.”

[sdrealtor]

Update time along the NCC.

New listings 19 – drip….drip….drip

New Pendings of 28 – plenty of demand

Thats a -9 for the week.

Closed sales at 26 –

Price reductions at 3

Total houses for sale 61 with median of $2.148M.

Enjoyed my front row seat for the two days of showings I was in town. Talked to many of them to get a sense where they were coming from, who they were and who they werent.

Who they werent. They werent foreign buyers or first generation Americans.

Who they were. Families with school age kids from the area looking to move up or from the Bay Area/LA looking for better quality of life and schools. Id guess mostly mid 30’s to mid 40’s. A few had grown up in SD county and now that work allowed them to WFH they saw this as an opportunity to come back to a place they loved with jobs that previously werent available here.

In my neighborhood of about a thousand homes, nine came on the market in the last 30 days. All sold the within a week with multiple offers. Two fell out of escrow and went right back in. Currently nothing available as we are about to hit the peak demand of early May. Records have already been set and likely more to come.

[gzz]

Is the top of point loma underperforming NCC?

New construction from 2017 only priced 24.4% over 2017 price.

https://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-210009287-4410-Adair-St-San-Diego-CA-92107

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4410-Adair-St-San-Diego-CA-92107/17060935_zpid/?

Really nice interior and exterior both. Only negative is the ugly animal skin rug and the tiny vanity mirrors that lack storage.

[sdrealtor]

High end is different but yes it looks like it is. You should really set up a Point Loma thread. I set these threads up to be hyper local

[sdrealtor]

Update time along the NCC.

New listings 16 – less not more. supply falling

New Pendings of 39 – plenty of demand. demand rising

Thats a -23 for the week.

Closed sales at 25 –

Price reductions at 2

Total houses for sale 49 with median of $2.1M.

Nearby house is in escrow $200K above asking. There were a bunch of offers and one significantly higher that didnt stick beyond the first couple days. Will be a neighborhood record which is a bit of a shock as the house is average at best for neighborhood but yard is great which speaks to the value of land on the coast. Was out of town last weekend and missed those showings but met buyers when they did inspection. Another young family coming from Bay Area. One has new local job and other will WFH. Pleasant surprise is getting a little more diversity which I appreciate. Closed price will represent well over 30% y-o-y.

Around here May is usually peak demand with relo buyers rolling into town. I dont know if that will be the case this year but there is nothing on the table for them right now with little relief in sight.

[profhoff]

I wonder if things will slow down as more and more people get vaccinated and we find our collective way to some kind of back to (new) normal.

[Hobie]

Prior to this influx of NorCal equity flowing into our local coastal market a lot of new owners needed 2 spouses working at professional jobs to cash flow and buy here.

I’m wondering if we will see other lesser priced tract homes being purchased outright with equity cash thus making it now feasible for one spouse to be stay at home parent.

Be interesting to see if that start trending. …probably same odds for briefcases coming back!

[Coronita]

I dont know but im pretty happy im getting a couple from LA that decided spending near $5000/month to live in a small condo in LA isnt as great to spending the same about by renting my place and getting double the square footage and easy access to a great school district. Wanted to sign a longer term lease too. Nice younger couple with excellent credit, low debt, but not quite ready to buy i think.

I do think there is some flifht from CA. Probably people on fixed income or retirees who arent working. But seems like we are picking up a lot of high net worth working people eho decoded theyd rather be here than NYC or LA or SF.

One of my colleagues went to the bay area to work as a staff engineer for one of them big public company. They gave him a comp package well above $300k. He’s considering moving back and working remotely. If he did, he could live like a king. He never sold his house and its paid off.

So i think this is great news for the local economy…its bad news for folks like flyer who wont be wealthy alone much longer and be able to rub their noses at others thinking they are better. Lots of people with a lot more money built from noteworthy accomplishments, not from mommy and daddy’s silver spoon.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=Hobie]Prior to this influx of NorCal equity flowing into our local coastal market a lot of new owners needed 2 spouses working at professional jobs to cash flow and buy here.

I’m wondering if we will see other lesser priced tract homes being purchased outright with equity cash thus making it now feasible for one spouse to be stay at home parent.

Be interesting to see if that start trending. …probably same odds for briefcases coming back![/quote]

Many if not most of those coming are both working by choice as well educated professionals. But who knows? I’ll keep my eyes open for an increase in stay at home dad’s. Could be a trend to watch

[sdrealtor]

[quote=profhoff]I wonder if things will slow down as more and more people get vaccinated and we find our collective way to some kind of back to (new) normal.[/quote]

I wouldn’t discount that new arrivals will have friends. Friends that will visit. Friends that will look around and ask themselves why am I doing that when I could be doing this?

[Author]

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