no more land, thus the bottom must be close?

[paranoid]

4runner,

“downtown has the highest density in SD county (still low density compared to a real city) and it has been hit the hardest so far.”

but even with current price decline, a down-town condo is still significantly more expensive than a similar condo outside, thus supporting my argument that land scarcity creates upward pressure on housing price.

[paranoid]

4runner,

“downtown has the highest density in SD county (still low density compared to a real city) and it has been hit the hardest so far.”

but even with current price decline, a down-town condo is still significantly more expensive than a similar condo outside, thus supporting my argument that land scarcity creates upward pressure on housing price.

[DaCounselor]

It seems obvious that limited availability of land can directly effect value, but density does not always equal desireability. What about Detroit as an example? Or bad neighborhoods in big cities? There can be zero land to develop in a particular neighborhood, but if no one wants to live there the value will reflect that. As for downtown SD, I think the values were driven up due to speculation more than anything else. I think that when the dust settles in about 2-3 years, it’s quite possible that downtown SD will be pounded by depreciation due to all the speculation and resultant overbuilding. And I think there are still quite a few lots that are or can ultimately be developed. I actually think downtown condos are going down harder than many surrounding neighborhoods with less “density”.

[DaCounselor]

It seems obvious that limited availability of land can directly effect value, but density does not always equal desireability. What about Detroit as an example? Or bad neighborhoods in big cities? There can be zero land to develop in a particular neighborhood, but if no one wants to live there the value will reflect that. As for downtown SD, I think the values were driven up due to speculation more than anything else. I think that when the dust settles in about 2-3 years, it’s quite possible that downtown SD will be pounded by depreciation due to all the speculation and resultant overbuilding. And I think there are still quite a few lots that are or can ultimately be developed. I actually think downtown condos are going down harder than many surrounding neighborhoods with less “density”.

[4runner]

Of course land scarcity creates an upward pressure on land prices, but we are nowhere near the point where “land scarcity” in SD county supports current valuations.

[4runner]

Of course land scarcity creates an upward pressure on land prices, but we are nowhere near the point where “land scarcity” in SD county supports current valuations.

[CardiffBaseball]

A couple of references to ocrenter's blog. The second one mentions a pullout of builders in San Elijo Hills, Fashion Walk and others. The weeds of Del Sur.

The Weeds of Del Sur

25 Months Supply of new homes

[CardiffBaseball]

A couple of references to ocrenter's blog. The second one mentions a pullout of builders in San Elijo Hills, Fashion Walk and others. The weeds of Del Sur.

The Weeds of Del Sur

25 Months Supply of new homes

[lonestar2000]

Lots of views expressed in this thread, thanks all for sharing.

One of San Diego’s charms are the open air space, and having to squeeze more houses in will definitely lessen that appeal. But that is only a small part of the full equation, and there is certainly plenty of options left for building new housing.

I would say that jobs and affordability are some of the strongest factors in pricing, and for now both of these are putting negative pressure on prices. Add to that the raising interest rate (which will worsen the ARM reset explosion), record high amounts of vacant homes for sale, and the fact that San Diego is losing more people than it is gaining. The result seems to be a continuing price adjustment downward and I don’t believe it is anywhere the bottom.

Coastal areas will be less everely hit than those more inland, but they will also feel the pinch in the coming months.

[lonestar2000]

Lots of views expressed in this thread, thanks all for sharing.

One of San Diego’s charms are the open air space, and having to squeeze more houses in will definitely lessen that appeal. But that is only a small part of the full equation, and there is certainly plenty of options left for building new housing.

I would say that jobs and affordability are some of the strongest factors in pricing, and for now both of these are putting negative pressure on prices. Add to that the raising interest rate (which will worsen the ARM reset explosion), record high amounts of vacant homes for sale, and the fact that San Diego is losing more people than it is gaining. The result seems to be a continuing price adjustment downward and I don’t believe it is anywhere the bottom.

Coastal areas will be less everely hit than those more inland, but they will also feel the pinch in the coming months.

[sdrealtor]

It’s important to remeber that scarcity of land is but one of many factors. Also, it’s effects are generally not felt for a couple decades.

[sdrealtor]

It’s important to remeber that scarcity of land is but one of many factors. Also, it’s effects are generally not felt for a couple decades.

[cyphire]

Sorry paranoid – it’s not the density in NYC which makes the apartments worth so much – its the density of jobs. 1.3 Million people commute into Manhattan each day. I lived there up till 7 years ago. If you live in the city you don’t have to commute (well maybe the subway or a cab).

NYC is where the money is played with. It’s the center of the financial world (London is possibly as big now). It’s pay scale is huge compared to out here. Downtown San Diego is a cow town compared with Manhattan.

[cyphire]

Sorry paranoid – it’s not the density in NYC which makes the apartments worth so much – its the density of jobs. 1.3 Million people commute into Manhattan each day. I lived there up till 7 years ago. If you live in the city you don’t have to commute (well maybe the subway or a cab).

NYC is where the money is played with. It’s the center of the financial world (London is possibly as big now). It’s pay scale is huge compared to out here. Downtown San Diego is a cow town compared with Manhattan.

[sdrealtor]

Spent a few years living and working in The City myself. SD is definitely a cow town in comparison. So much so that any comparisons are a waste of time.

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