new case shiller housing index data

[Anonymous]

Just ran some of the tiered numbers: zing!

Tier LOW MID HIGH
MoM 3.56% 1.17%1.54%
YoY 15.76% 10.31% 5.59%
Peak 16.43% 12.30% 7.22%

The MoM HIGH and MID categories look inverted from previous data. Am I reading this correctly? This might be interpreted as an indication that the scarcity of Jumbo loans is beginning to have an effect. Relatively few people can pay $700k+ with a conforming loan. The lack of credit, in the end, could be more important for price trends in “core” (read pricey) areas of SD, LA, etc. than the sub-prime crisis, foreclosures, or even (dare I say it), a recession. No loan = no sale –> BIG downward pressure on prices.

[Anonymous]

Just ran some of the tiered numbers: zing!

Tier LOW MID HIGH
MoM 3.56% 1.17%1.54%
YoY 15.76% 10.31% 5.59%
Peak 16.43% 12.30% 7.22%

The MoM HIGH and MID categories look inverted from previous data. Am I reading this correctly? This might be interpreted as an indication that the scarcity of Jumbo loans is beginning to have an effect. Relatively few people can pay $700k+ with a conforming loan. The lack of credit, in the end, could be more important for price trends in “core” (read pricey) areas of SD, LA, etc. than the sub-prime crisis, foreclosures, or even (dare I say it), a recession. No loan = no sale –> BIG downward pressure on prices.

[Anonymous]

Just ran some of the tiered numbers: zing!

Tier LOW MID HIGH
MoM 3.56% 1.17%1.54%
YoY 15.76% 10.31% 5.59%
Peak 16.43% 12.30% 7.22%

The MoM HIGH and MID categories look inverted from previous data. Am I reading this correctly? This might be interpreted as an indication that the scarcity of Jumbo loans is beginning to have an effect. Relatively few people can pay $700k+ with a conforming loan. The lack of credit, in the end, could be more important for price trends in “core” (read pricey) areas of SD, LA, etc. than the sub-prime crisis, foreclosures, or even (dare I say it), a recession. No loan = no sale –> BIG downward pressure on prices.

[Anonymous]

Just ran some of the tiered numbers: zing!

Tier LOW MID HIGH
MoM 3.56% 1.17%1.54%
YoY 15.76% 10.31% 5.59%
Peak 16.43% 12.30% 7.22%

The MoM HIGH and MID categories look inverted from previous data. Am I reading this correctly? This might be interpreted as an indication that the scarcity of Jumbo loans is beginning to have an effect. Relatively few people can pay $700k+ with a conforming loan. The lack of credit, in the end, could be more important for price trends in “core” (read pricey) areas of SD, LA, etc. than the sub-prime crisis, foreclosures, or even (dare I say it), a recession. No loan = no sale –> BIG downward pressure on prices.

[Anonymous]

Just ran some of the tiered numbers: zing!

Tier LOW MID HIGH
MoM 3.56% 1.17%1.54%
YoY 15.76% 10.31% 5.59%
Peak 16.43% 12.30% 7.22%

The MoM HIGH and MID categories look inverted from previous data. Am I reading this correctly? This might be interpreted as an indication that the scarcity of Jumbo loans is beginning to have an effect. Relatively few people can pay $700k+ with a conforming loan. The lack of credit, in the end, could be more important for price trends in “core” (read pricey) areas of SD, LA, etc. than the sub-prime crisis, foreclosures, or even (dare I say it), a recession. No loan = no sale –> BIG downward pressure on prices.

[scott]

Tier LOW MID HIGH AGGREGATE
MoM -3.7% -3.1% -1.6% -2.6%
YoY -17.9% -12.1% -5.8% -11.1%
Peak 16.43% 12.30% 7.22% -13.3%

Tier cusp change:
Low/Mid: -$12644
Mid/High: -$9459

[scott]

Tier LOW MID HIGH AGGREGATE
MoM -3.7% -3.1% -1.6% -2.6%
YoY -17.9% -12.1% -5.8% -11.1%
Peak 16.43% 12.30% 7.22% -13.3%

Tier cusp change:
Low/Mid: -$12644
Mid/High: -$9459

[scott]

Tier LOW MID HIGH AGGREGATE
MoM -3.7% -3.1% -1.6% -2.6%
YoY -17.9% -12.1% -5.8% -11.1%
Peak 16.43% 12.30% 7.22% -13.3%

Tier cusp change:
Low/Mid: -$12644
Mid/High: -$9459

[scott]

Tier LOW MID HIGH AGGREGATE
MoM -3.7% -3.1% -1.6% -2.6%
YoY -17.9% -12.1% -5.8% -11.1%
Peak 16.43% 12.30% 7.22% -13.3%

Tier cusp change:
Low/Mid: -$12644
Mid/High: -$9459

[scott]

Tier LOW MID HIGH AGGREGATE
MoM -3.7% -3.1% -1.6% -2.6%
YoY -17.9% -12.1% -5.8% -11.1%
Peak 16.43% 12.30% 7.22% -13.3%

Tier cusp change:
Low/Mid: -$12644
Mid/High: -$9459

[Author]

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