new case shiller housing index data

[WaitingToExhale]

Edited for accuracy. I originally said “wasn’t right in principle” when I meant “was.” Freudian slip?

The original post from November 2006 is interesting with the statement:

There’s also a video clip of shiller up at bloomberg. He mentions that the traded index futures are “predicting” a 5% or so decline YOY for next august.

The prediction WAS right in principle, if somewhat conservative (~5% predicted YOY decline for August and we are at a 7.8% decline as of the July data).

Where can one see the traded index futures? I would imagine they are pretty confused at this point with the whole credit crunch and the threat of government intervention.

[brian_in_la]

Hi — I was on the page with you, I could tell it was a mis-type. Yeah, I remember a year or so ago when discussing this that many thought that the declines were too little, too slow. My take then (and now) was that the housing bust is going to be pretty boring….long and slow. Actually, it has been alot faster and more “exciting” than I ever imagined (in 2005, early 2006) that it would be….

[one_muggle]

BTW, I thought San Diego was cheap in 2000 and overpriced by 2004 without benefit of any statistics.

According to Global Insights SD was below its historical intrinsic value all the way up thru 2002, but was 25% overpriced by 2004. As of 2007-Q2 it is 18% overpriced, which is down from its worst of 39% in 2005.
FWIW, LA is at about 50%, down from its high of 61% in 2006.

-one muggle

[Daniel]

Could anybody recommend a futures broker who trades CME housing futures based on the S&P Case-Shiller index? My discount broker can’t do that.

I am very seriously interested in this, and I would appreciate any feedback on the issue. I know the trading volumes are very low, but I’ve traded in iliquid markets before. And anyways, I’m not planning to open a large position (about 15 contracts, perhaps).

Thanks very much,
Daniel

[Daniel]

Could anybody recommend a futures broker who trades CME housing futures based on the S&P Case-Shiller index? My discount broker can’t do that.

I am very seriously interested in this, and I would appreciate any feedback on the issue. I know the trading volumes are very low, but I’ve traded in iliquid markets before. And anyways, I’m not planning to open a large position (about 15 contracts, perhaps).

Thanks very much,
Daniel

[Daniel]

Hey fellas, really, nobody can recommend a broker trading CS futures? “All show and no go” on this site, huh? OK, I’m just kidding, no offense to anybody.

But honestly, my question is very serious, I’d like to know if there are people familiar with the practical side of trading these instruments.

Thanks again,
Daniel

[Daniel]

Hey fellas, really, nobody can recommend a broker trading CS futures? “All show and no go” on this site, huh? OK, I’m just kidding, no offense to anybody.

But honestly, my question is very serious, I’d like to know if there are people familiar with the practical side of trading these instruments.

Thanks again,
Daniel

[brian_in_la]

Hi Daniel – I’m not really a commodities trader sort of person, but here is what I know. I believe that the CS futures are traded on the chicago mercantile exchange (or, maybe CBOT, but I think Merc). So, any full service broker should be able to put in a trade through either their own house or an affiliated agent with a seat on the exchange. I don’t think it is anything exotic. Apparenetly trading is very thin, but looking back on its short history it has “forcast” actual CS index levels pretty well.

[brian_in_la]

Hi Daniel – I’m not really a commodities trader sort of person, but here is what I know. I believe that the CS futures are traded on the chicago mercantile exchange (or, maybe CBOT, but I think Merc). So, any full service broker should be able to put in a trade through either their own house or an affiliated agent with a seat on the exchange. I don’t think it is anything exotic. Apparenetly trading is very thin, but looking back on its short history it has “forcast” actual CS index levels pretty well.

[brian_in_la]

Hi Daniel – I’m not really a commodities trader sort of person, but here is what I know. I believe that the CS futures are traded on the chicago mercantile exchange (or, maybe CBOT, but I think Merc). So, any full service broker should be able to put in a trade through either their own house or an affiliated agent with a seat on the exchange. I don’t think it is anything exotic. Apparenetly trading is very thin, but looking back on its short history it has “forcast” actual CS index levels pretty well.

[brian_in_la]

New Numbers out today from S&P – these are the numbers for price changes in August. Twas a bad month for SoCal. San Diego was down 1.28% and LA was down 1.06% for the month. YOY, San Diego is down 8.32%, while LA is down 5.75%. I am sure Rich will be posting a more authoritative post at some point, but I believe that these August numbers still don’t reflect most of the summer credit crunch, which should be reflected more in the September data.

Just for reference, the typical August Case-Shiller price change from 1986-2006 was +.71% for SD and +.86% for LA. Using the Case-Shiller data, August is the fifth strongest month for San Diego. So, this really puts the -1.28% change for SD in an even worse light.

[brian_in_la]

New Numbers out today from S&P – these are the numbers for price changes in August. Twas a bad month for SoCal. San Diego was down 1.28% and LA was down 1.06% for the month. YOY, San Diego is down 8.32%, while LA is down 5.75%. I am sure Rich will be posting a more authoritative post at some point, but I believe that these August numbers still don’t reflect most of the summer credit crunch, which should be reflected more in the September data.

Just for reference, the typical August Case-Shiller price change from 1986-2006 was +.71% for SD and +.86% for LA. Using the Case-Shiller data, August is the fifth strongest month for San Diego. So, this really puts the -1.28% change for SD in an even worse light.

[brian_in_la]

New Numbers out today from S&P – these are the numbers for price changes in August. Twas a bad month for SoCal. San Diego was down 1.28% and LA was down 1.06% for the month. YOY, San Diego is down 8.32%, while LA is down 5.75%. I am sure Rich will be posting a more authoritative post at some point, but I believe that these August numbers still don’t reflect most of the summer credit crunch, which should be reflected more in the September data.

Just for reference, the typical August Case-Shiller price change from 1986-2006 was +.71% for SD and +.86% for LA. Using the Case-Shiller data, August is the fifth strongest month for San Diego. So, this really puts the -1.28% change for SD in an even worse light.

[cr]

brian_in_la-

You had “LA, +.1% from august, +7.1% YOY.”

Correct me if I’m wrong but I calculate a 1.062% decrease in price for LA from July 2007 (260.84) to August (258.07).

For YOY (September 2006 to August 2007) a 5.973% decrease. Ratios of 273.94 and 258.07 respectively. 11 consecutive months of price drops since October ’06 for LA.

I’m noticing more and more foreclosures all the time. I hope and expect the rate of price drops to accelerate through the slow season and continue for several years, but I too wish it would happen faster. Though relatively, 5/9% decline YOY is pretty significant considering real estate prices “never go down.”

[cr]

brian_in_la-

You had “LA, +.1% from august, +7.1% YOY.”

Correct me if I’m wrong but I calculate a 1.062% decrease in price for LA from July 2007 (260.84) to August (258.07).

For YOY (September 2006 to August 2007) a 5.973% decrease. Ratios of 273.94 and 258.07 respectively. 11 consecutive months of price drops since October ’06 for LA.

I’m noticing more and more foreclosures all the time. I hope and expect the rate of price drops to accelerate through the slow season and continue for several years, but I too wish it would happen faster. Though relatively, 5/9% decline YOY is pretty significant considering real estate prices “never go down.”

[Author]

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