Mortgage broker predicts further collapse in housing

[Zeitgeist]

I agree with Arraya. Once the props get kicked out from under this false bottom, it will continue to drop. Not sure I am buying 2033 because I would expect technology to have some influence in the next 23 years that would impact housing and life styles, such as more robotic devices, DNA interventions to cure and keep people alive longer which will impact supply and demand. Back to the original point, although prices locally have risen somewhat, there is a huge inventory out there including commercial real estate. I am not sure how much more Congress will continue to play along with the administration, but strains are beginning to show already. The party is over.

[4plexowner]

[img_assist|nid=12707|title=US Home Ownership Bubble|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=400|height=340]

Here’s another way of looking at the bubble – the chart shows the percentage of homes in America that are owned

Bubble theory says we will retrace this bubble to its start in 1995 or so

There may have been some structural changes in our economy such that this bubble will only collapse to the 65/66% level and not all the way to 64%

On the chart I have marked:
– 1987 when Greenspan became Fed Chairman – did the credit/debt bubble start all the way back then?
– 1997 when the capital gains exemption was enacted (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/19/business/19tax.html)
– 1998 when San Diego metrics departed from their historic range
– 2002 when massive monetary easing began
– 2006/7 when San Diego’s peak occurred

To do a thorough job of analyzing the housing bubble we might want to ask the question, “Is this JUST a housing bubble or is there a bubble in credit/debt that is collapsing along with the housing markets?”

IF there is a credit/debt bubble collapsing, we might have to go all the way back to 1987 when Greenspan took over the printing presses or even 1971 when Nixon closed the gold window

Regardless of where the ultimate bottom is, that bottom is far below current levels …

[4plexowner]

[img_assist|nid=12707|title=US Home Ownership Bubble|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=400|height=340]

Here’s another way of looking at the bubble – the chart shows the percentage of homes in America that are owned

Bubble theory says we will retrace this bubble to its start in 1995 or so

There may have been some structural changes in our economy such that this bubble will only collapse to the 65/66% level and not all the way to 64%

On the chart I have marked:
– 1987 when Greenspan became Fed Chairman – did the credit/debt bubble start all the way back then?
– 1997 when the capital gains exemption was enacted (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/19/business/19tax.html)
– 1998 when San Diego metrics departed from their historic range
– 2002 when massive monetary easing began
– 2006/7 when San Diego’s peak occurred

To do a thorough job of analyzing the housing bubble we might want to ask the question, “Is this JUST a housing bubble or is there a bubble in credit/debt that is collapsing along with the housing markets?”

IF there is a credit/debt bubble collapsing, we might have to go all the way back to 1987 when Greenspan took over the printing presses or even 1971 when Nixon closed the gold window

Regardless of where the ultimate bottom is, that bottom is far below current levels …

[4plexowner]

[img_assist|nid=12707|title=US Home Ownership Bubble|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=400|height=340]

Here’s another way of looking at the bubble – the chart shows the percentage of homes in America that are owned

Bubble theory says we will retrace this bubble to its start in 1995 or so

There may have been some structural changes in our economy such that this bubble will only collapse to the 65/66% level and not all the way to 64%

On the chart I have marked:
– 1987 when Greenspan became Fed Chairman – did the credit/debt bubble start all the way back then?
– 1997 when the capital gains exemption was enacted (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/19/business/19tax.html)
– 1998 when San Diego metrics departed from their historic range
– 2002 when massive monetary easing began
– 2006/7 when San Diego’s peak occurred

To do a thorough job of analyzing the housing bubble we might want to ask the question, “Is this JUST a housing bubble or is there a bubble in credit/debt that is collapsing along with the housing markets?”

IF there is a credit/debt bubble collapsing, we might have to go all the way back to 1987 when Greenspan took over the printing presses or even 1971 when Nixon closed the gold window

Regardless of where the ultimate bottom is, that bottom is far below current levels …

[4plexowner]

[img_assist|nid=12707|title=US Home Ownership Bubble|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=400|height=340]

Here’s another way of looking at the bubble – the chart shows the percentage of homes in America that are owned

Bubble theory says we will retrace this bubble to its start in 1995 or so

There may have been some structural changes in our economy such that this bubble will only collapse to the 65/66% level and not all the way to 64%

On the chart I have marked:
– 1987 when Greenspan became Fed Chairman – did the credit/debt bubble start all the way back then?
– 1997 when the capital gains exemption was enacted (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/19/business/19tax.html)
– 1998 when San Diego metrics departed from their historic range
– 2002 when massive monetary easing began
– 2006/7 when San Diego’s peak occurred

To do a thorough job of analyzing the housing bubble we might want to ask the question, “Is this JUST a housing bubble or is there a bubble in credit/debt that is collapsing along with the housing markets?”

IF there is a credit/debt bubble collapsing, we might have to go all the way back to 1987 when Greenspan took over the printing presses or even 1971 when Nixon closed the gold window

Regardless of where the ultimate bottom is, that bottom is far below current levels …

[4plexowner]

[img_assist|nid=12707|title=US Home Ownership Bubble|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=400|height=340]

Here’s another way of looking at the bubble – the chart shows the percentage of homes in America that are owned

Bubble theory says we will retrace this bubble to its start in 1995 or so

There may have been some structural changes in our economy such that this bubble will only collapse to the 65/66% level and not all the way to 64%

On the chart I have marked:
– 1987 when Greenspan became Fed Chairman – did the credit/debt bubble start all the way back then?
– 1997 when the capital gains exemption was enacted (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/19/business/19tax.html)
– 1998 when San Diego metrics departed from their historic range
– 2002 when massive monetary easing began
– 2006/7 when San Diego’s peak occurred

To do a thorough job of analyzing the housing bubble we might want to ask the question, “Is this JUST a housing bubble or is there a bubble in credit/debt that is collapsing along with the housing markets?”

IF there is a credit/debt bubble collapsing, we might have to go all the way back to 1987 when Greenspan took over the printing presses or even 1971 when Nixon closed the gold window

Regardless of where the ultimate bottom is, that bottom is far below current levels …

[4plexowner]

[img_assist|nid=12708|title=Debt Bubble|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=400|height=270]

davelj, I assume you are referring to Jeremy Grantham

he believes there is a global bubble, not just in housing but in debt as well

Jeremy Grantham On Popping Financial Bubble
(http://www.parapundit.com/archives/005907.html)

Jeremy Grantham: World’s a Bubble Except for Trees
(http://www.tradersnarrative.com/jeremy-grantham-worlds-a-bubble-except-for-trees-907.html)

snippets from this 2007 article:

4. All global assets reflect this and are overpriced and show, probably for the first time, a negative return to risk taking.

6. Global credit is more extended and more complicated than ever before so that no one is sure where all the increased risk has ended up.

7. Every bubble has always burst.

8. The bursting of the bubble will be across all countries and all assets, with the probable exception of high grade bonds. Risk premiums in particular will widen. Since no similar global event has occurred before, the stresses to the system are likely to be unexpected. All of this is likely to depress confidence and lower economic activity.

[4plexowner]

[img_assist|nid=12708|title=Debt Bubble|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=400|height=270]

davelj, I assume you are referring to Jeremy Grantham

he believes there is a global bubble, not just in housing but in debt as well

Jeremy Grantham On Popping Financial Bubble
(http://www.parapundit.com/archives/005907.html)

Jeremy Grantham: World’s a Bubble Except for Trees
(http://www.tradersnarrative.com/jeremy-grantham-worlds-a-bubble-except-for-trees-907.html)

snippets from this 2007 article:

4. All global assets reflect this and are overpriced and show, probably for the first time, a negative return to risk taking.

6. Global credit is more extended and more complicated than ever before so that no one is sure where all the increased risk has ended up.

7. Every bubble has always burst.

8. The bursting of the bubble will be across all countries and all assets, with the probable exception of high grade bonds. Risk premiums in particular will widen. Since no similar global event has occurred before, the stresses to the system are likely to be unexpected. All of this is likely to depress confidence and lower economic activity.

[4plexowner]

[img_assist|nid=12708|title=Debt Bubble|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=400|height=270]

davelj, I assume you are referring to Jeremy Grantham

he believes there is a global bubble, not just in housing but in debt as well

Jeremy Grantham On Popping Financial Bubble
(http://www.parapundit.com/archives/005907.html)

Jeremy Grantham: World’s a Bubble Except for Trees
(http://www.tradersnarrative.com/jeremy-grantham-worlds-a-bubble-except-for-trees-907.html)

snippets from this 2007 article:

4. All global assets reflect this and are overpriced and show, probably for the first time, a negative return to risk taking.

6. Global credit is more extended and more complicated than ever before so that no one is sure where all the increased risk has ended up.

7. Every bubble has always burst.

8. The bursting of the bubble will be across all countries and all assets, with the probable exception of high grade bonds. Risk premiums in particular will widen. Since no similar global event has occurred before, the stresses to the system are likely to be unexpected. All of this is likely to depress confidence and lower economic activity.

[4plexowner]

[img_assist|nid=12708|title=Debt Bubble|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=400|height=270]

davelj, I assume you are referring to Jeremy Grantham

he believes there is a global bubble, not just in housing but in debt as well

Jeremy Grantham On Popping Financial Bubble
(http://www.parapundit.com/archives/005907.html)

Jeremy Grantham: World’s a Bubble Except for Trees
(http://www.tradersnarrative.com/jeremy-grantham-worlds-a-bubble-except-for-trees-907.html)

snippets from this 2007 article:

4. All global assets reflect this and are overpriced and show, probably for the first time, a negative return to risk taking.

6. Global credit is more extended and more complicated than ever before so that no one is sure where all the increased risk has ended up.

7. Every bubble has always burst.

8. The bursting of the bubble will be across all countries and all assets, with the probable exception of high grade bonds. Risk premiums in particular will widen. Since no similar global event has occurred before, the stresses to the system are likely to be unexpected. All of this is likely to depress confidence and lower economic activity.

[4plexowner]

[img_assist|nid=12708|title=Debt Bubble|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=400|height=270]

davelj, I assume you are referring to Jeremy Grantham

he believes there is a global bubble, not just in housing but in debt as well

Jeremy Grantham On Popping Financial Bubble
(http://www.parapundit.com/archives/005907.html)

Jeremy Grantham: World’s a Bubble Except for Trees
(http://www.tradersnarrative.com/jeremy-grantham-worlds-a-bubble-except-for-trees-907.html)

snippets from this 2007 article:

4. All global assets reflect this and are overpriced and show, probably for the first time, a negative return to risk taking.

6. Global credit is more extended and more complicated than ever before so that no one is sure where all the increased risk has ended up.

7. Every bubble has always burst.

8. The bursting of the bubble will be across all countries and all assets, with the probable exception of high grade bonds. Risk premiums in particular will widen. Since no similar global event has occurred before, the stresses to the system are likely to be unexpected. All of this is likely to depress confidence and lower economic activity.

[4plexowner]

[img_assist|nid=12709|title=Martin Armstrong – housing bubble|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=429|height=354]

Martin Armstrong – Behind The Curtain
http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/martin-armstrong-behind-curtain.html

Martin isn’t talking about prices here, he is talking about trends

I find it interesting that based on economic cycle theory, Martin arrives at 2033 for the end of the downtrend in housing

Bubble analysis suggests to me that real estate as an asset class will be avoided for a full generation – is that 26 years? – don’t know but seems reasonable to me

Two different analysis methods providing similar answers – interesting …

[4plexowner]

[img_assist|nid=12709|title=Martin Armstrong – housing bubble|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=429|height=354]

Martin Armstrong – Behind The Curtain
http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/martin-armstrong-behind-curtain.html

Martin isn’t talking about prices here, he is talking about trends

I find it interesting that based on economic cycle theory, Martin arrives at 2033 for the end of the downtrend in housing

Bubble analysis suggests to me that real estate as an asset class will be avoided for a full generation – is that 26 years? – don’t know but seems reasonable to me

Two different analysis methods providing similar answers – interesting …

[4plexowner]

[img_assist|nid=12709|title=Martin Armstrong – housing bubble|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=429|height=354]

Martin Armstrong – Behind The Curtain
http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/martin-armstrong-behind-curtain.html

Martin isn’t talking about prices here, he is talking about trends

I find it interesting that based on economic cycle theory, Martin arrives at 2033 for the end of the downtrend in housing

Bubble analysis suggests to me that real estate as an asset class will be avoided for a full generation – is that 26 years? – don’t know but seems reasonable to me

Two different analysis methods providing similar answers – interesting …

[4plexowner]

[img_assist|nid=12709|title=Martin Armstrong – housing bubble|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=429|height=354]

Martin Armstrong – Behind The Curtain
http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/martin-armstrong-behind-curtain.html

Martin isn’t talking about prices here, he is talking about trends

I find it interesting that based on economic cycle theory, Martin arrives at 2033 for the end of the downtrend in housing

Bubble analysis suggests to me that real estate as an asset class will be avoided for a full generation – is that 26 years? – don’t know but seems reasonable to me

Two different analysis methods providing similar answers – interesting …

[Author]

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