Mortgage broker predicts further collapse in housing

[davelj]

[quote=4plexowner][img_assist|nid=12708|title=Debt Bubble|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=400|height=270]

davelj, I assume you are referring to Jeremy Grantham

he believes there is a global bubble, not just in housing but in debt as well

Jeremy Grantham On Popping Financial Bubble
(http://www.parapundit.com/archives/005907.html)

Jeremy Grantham: World’s a Bubble Except for Trees
(http://www.tradersnarrative.com/jeremy-grantham-worlds-a-bubble-except-for-trees-907.html)

snippets from this 2007 article:

4. All global assets reflect this and are overpriced and show, probably for the first time, a negative return to risk taking.

6. Global credit is more extended and more complicated than ever before so that no one is sure where all the increased risk has ended up.

7. Every bubble has always burst.

8. The bursting of the bubble will be across all countries and all assets, with the probable exception of high grade bonds. Risk premiums in particular will widen. Since no similar global event has occurred before, the stresses to the system are likely to be unexpected. All of this is likely to depress confidence and lower economic activity.[/quote]

Agreed, and none of this contradicts anything I wrote in my response to your last post, so I’m not sure what your point is.

[Anonymous]

Dear Patrick, I have heard quite a few times about my trend lines failing for lack of their exponential properties. Then I look at the actual data and the linear trends and conclude: This must be another mathematician from a hedge fund which makes money in good and bad markets. If you would like to plot exponential trends, please email me at mike @ mynewmortgage.com. i would be glad to send you the Excel file and publish your chart. If after working with the numbers you discover exponential growth is a psychotic illusion in analyzing property-price data, please enlighten us of your discovery. mdw

[Anonymous]

Dear Patrick, I have heard quite a few times about my trend lines failing for lack of their exponential properties. Then I look at the actual data and the linear trends and conclude: This must be another mathematician from a hedge fund which makes money in good and bad markets. If you would like to plot exponential trends, please email me at mike @ mynewmortgage.com. i would be glad to send you the Excel file and publish your chart. If after working with the numbers you discover exponential growth is a psychotic illusion in analyzing property-price data, please enlighten us of your discovery. mdw

[Anonymous]

Dear Patrick, I have heard quite a few times about my trend lines failing for lack of their exponential properties. Then I look at the actual data and the linear trends and conclude: This must be another mathematician from a hedge fund which makes money in good and bad markets. If you would like to plot exponential trends, please email me at mike @ mynewmortgage.com. i would be glad to send you the Excel file and publish your chart. If after working with the numbers you discover exponential growth is a psychotic illusion in analyzing property-price data, please enlighten us of your discovery. mdw

[Anonymous]

Dear Patrick, I have heard quite a few times about my trend lines failing for lack of their exponential properties. Then I look at the actual data and the linear trends and conclude: This must be another mathematician from a hedge fund which makes money in good and bad markets. If you would like to plot exponential trends, please email me at mike @ mynewmortgage.com. i would be glad to send you the Excel file and publish your chart. If after working with the numbers you discover exponential growth is a psychotic illusion in analyzing property-price data, please enlighten us of your discovery. mdw

[Anonymous]

Dear Patrick, I have heard quite a few times about my trend lines failing for lack of their exponential properties. Then I look at the actual data and the linear trends and conclude: This must be another mathematician from a hedge fund which makes money in good and bad markets. If you would like to plot exponential trends, please email me at mike @ mynewmortgage.com. i would be glad to send you the Excel file and publish your chart. If after working with the numbers you discover exponential growth is a psychotic illusion in analyzing property-price data, please enlighten us of your discovery. mdw

[34f3f3f]

[quote=Zeitgeist]I agree with Arraya. Once the props get kicked out from under this false bottom, it will continue to drop. Not sure I am buying 2033 because I would expect technology to have some influence in the next 23 years that would impact housing and life styles, such as more robotic devices, DNA interventions to cure and keep people alive longer which will impact supply and demand. Back to the original point, although prices locally have risen somewhat, there is a huge inventory out there including commercial real estate. I am not sure how much more Congress will continue to play along with the administration, but strains are beginning to show already. The party is over.[/quote]

I also agree with Arraya, but there is one more prop, and that is sheeple many of whom remain blissfully unaware of the walls that have been crashing in around them. Seems that might also be down to generational experience, or lack thereof.

[34f3f3f]

[quote=Zeitgeist]I agree with Arraya. Once the props get kicked out from under this false bottom, it will continue to drop. Not sure I am buying 2033 because I would expect technology to have some influence in the next 23 years that would impact housing and life styles, such as more robotic devices, DNA interventions to cure and keep people alive longer which will impact supply and demand. Back to the original point, although prices locally have risen somewhat, there is a huge inventory out there including commercial real estate. I am not sure how much more Congress will continue to play along with the administration, but strains are beginning to show already. The party is over.[/quote]

I also agree with Arraya, but there is one more prop, and that is sheeple many of whom remain blissfully unaware of the walls that have been crashing in around them. Seems that might also be down to generational experience, or lack thereof.

[34f3f3f]

[quote=Zeitgeist]I agree with Arraya. Once the props get kicked out from under this false bottom, it will continue to drop. Not sure I am buying 2033 because I would expect technology to have some influence in the next 23 years that would impact housing and life styles, such as more robotic devices, DNA interventions to cure and keep people alive longer which will impact supply and demand. Back to the original point, although prices locally have risen somewhat, there is a huge inventory out there including commercial real estate. I am not sure how much more Congress will continue to play along with the administration, but strains are beginning to show already. The party is over.[/quote]

I also agree with Arraya, but there is one more prop, and that is sheeple many of whom remain blissfully unaware of the walls that have been crashing in around them. Seems that might also be down to generational experience, or lack thereof.

[34f3f3f]

[quote=Zeitgeist]I agree with Arraya. Once the props get kicked out from under this false bottom, it will continue to drop. Not sure I am buying 2033 because I would expect technology to have some influence in the next 23 years that would impact housing and life styles, such as more robotic devices, DNA interventions to cure and keep people alive longer which will impact supply and demand. Back to the original point, although prices locally have risen somewhat, there is a huge inventory out there including commercial real estate. I am not sure how much more Congress will continue to play along with the administration, but strains are beginning to show already. The party is over.[/quote]

I also agree with Arraya, but there is one more prop, and that is sheeple many of whom remain blissfully unaware of the walls that have been crashing in around them. Seems that might also be down to generational experience, or lack thereof.

[34f3f3f]

[quote=Zeitgeist]I agree with Arraya. Once the props get kicked out from under this false bottom, it will continue to drop. Not sure I am buying 2033 because I would expect technology to have some influence in the next 23 years that would impact housing and life styles, such as more robotic devices, DNA interventions to cure and keep people alive longer which will impact supply and demand. Back to the original point, although prices locally have risen somewhat, there is a huge inventory out there including commercial real estate. I am not sure how much more Congress will continue to play along with the administration, but strains are beginning to show already. The party is over.[/quote]

I also agree with Arraya, but there is one more prop, and that is sheeple many of whom remain blissfully unaware of the walls that have been crashing in around them. Seems that might also be down to generational experience, or lack thereof.

[partypup]

Arraya, great find. And you know how I feel. Unless you plan to lay down roots somewhere for 10+ years, it’s beyond folly to even consider buying now. We have been happily renting for the past 3 years and are currently negotiating a rental a little further up the coast to a larger house that is currently valued at $1.4 million – and was valued at $5.06 million in 2006. We’re paying the owner $1,000 less than the tenant who just moved out. Unemployment – the key driver in all of this – is going nowhere but up.

This epic fall has only just begun.

[partypup]

Arraya, great find. And you know how I feel. Unless you plan to lay down roots somewhere for 10+ years, it’s beyond folly to even consider buying now. We have been happily renting for the past 3 years and are currently negotiating a rental a little further up the coast to a larger house that is currently valued at $1.4 million – and was valued at $5.06 million in 2006. We’re paying the owner $1,000 less than the tenant who just moved out. Unemployment – the key driver in all of this – is going nowhere but up.

This epic fall has only just begun.

[partypup]

Arraya, great find. And you know how I feel. Unless you plan to lay down roots somewhere for 10+ years, it’s beyond folly to even consider buying now. We have been happily renting for the past 3 years and are currently negotiating a rental a little further up the coast to a larger house that is currently valued at $1.4 million – and was valued at $5.06 million in 2006. We’re paying the owner $1,000 less than the tenant who just moved out. Unemployment – the key driver in all of this – is going nowhere but up.

This epic fall has only just begun.

[partypup]

Arraya, great find. And you know how I feel. Unless you plan to lay down roots somewhere for 10+ years, it’s beyond folly to even consider buying now. We have been happily renting for the past 3 years and are currently negotiating a rental a little further up the coast to a larger house that is currently valued at $1.4 million – and was valued at $5.06 million in 2006. We’re paying the owner $1,000 less than the tenant who just moved out. Unemployment – the key driver in all of this – is going nowhere but up.

This epic fall has only just begun.

[Author]

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