Mira Mesa on fire-prices have started increasing

[an]

[quote=AN][quote=AN][quote=AN][quote=sdrealtor][quote=AN]Talking about jobs in MM, looks like good time is here again: http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2012/jun/11/shire-add-several-hundred-biotech-jobs/?sciquest

Here’s another one, a block away: http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-120028338-7815_Dancy_Rd_San_Diego_CA_92126. Went pending after a few days with multiple offers. Take a look at the interior. That’s straight out of the 80s. Take a look at the asking price too, that’s $50k more than the Feller Cv house. I guess that’s the difference between short sale and equity sale.[/quote]

Its a range price on Dancy from 450 to 500K. My guess would be closer to 450K but we will have to see. Shouldnt be much of a difference on final sales prices.[/quote]
Here’s another one, a few blocks away: http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-120032791-10119_Parkdale_Ave_San_Diego_CA_92126. Exact same floor plan. Asking $425-450k and went pending after 2 weeks. The interior is also straight out of the 80s. My guess is, the Dancy one will close around $480k, the Feller and Parkdale ones will close around $450k.[/quote]
Dancy one just closed at $483k.[/quote]
Feller Cove just closed at $445k.[/quote]
Parkdale just closed at $465k. That’s $15k above my estimate.

[Coronita]

Prices have definitely gone up… Significantly….So has rent…And banks are no longer as stupid…Time to go back and play in the stock markets… 🙁

[livinincali]

[quote=flu]Prices have definitely gone up… Significantly….So has rent…And banks are no longer as stupid…Time to go back and play in the stock markets… :([/quote]

It’s all been relative in MM. Looking at the data it feels like prices went up a ton when compared to earlier this year. I happen to have MM data handy and this is what I have.

July 2012 Avg Price 305K, Avg Price/SF $238
February 2012 (low point) Avg Price 260K, Avg Price/SF $212
July 2011 Avg Price 316K, Avg Price/SF $230
Feb 2011 Avg Price 296K, Avg Price/SF $231
July 2010 (Wee tax credit expiration) Avg Price 343K, Price/SF $262
Feb 2010 Avg Price 325K, Avg Price/SF $237
July 2009 Avg Price 335K, Avg Price/SF $246

So we’re still running below 2009 which was supposedly the low, we’re pretty much in line with last year numbers and we’re significantly below the hotness that was the tax credit expiration. I remember 80 homes/condos in 92126 back in mid 2010, we’re double that now, but how quickly we seem to forget.

It feels hot now because of the significant decline in late 2011, but we’ve really only managed to get that decline back. Context is everything and it’s interesting that we tend to have such a short term focus on asset prices that we plan to hold for a long time.

[an]

[quote=livinincali][quote=flu]Prices have definitely gone up… Significantly….So has rent…And banks are no longer as stupid…Time to go back and play in the stock markets… :([/quote]

It’s all been relative in MM. Looking at the data it feels like prices went up a ton when compared to earlier this year. I happen to have MM data handy and this is what I have.

July 2012 Avg Price 305K, Avg Price/SF $238
February 2012 (low point) Avg Price 260K, Avg Price/SF $212
July 2011 Avg Price 316K, Avg Price/SF $230
Feb 2011 Avg Price 296K, Avg Price/SF $231
July 2010 (Wee tax credit expiration) Avg Price 343K, Price/SF $262
Feb 2010 Avg Price 325K, Avg Price/SF $237
July 2009 Avg Price 335K, Avg Price/SF $246

So we’re still running below 2009 which was supposedly the low, we’re pretty much in line with last year numbers and we’re significantly below the hotness that was the tax credit expiration. I remember 80 homes/condos in 92126 back in mid 2010, we’re double that now, but how quickly we seem to forget.

It feels hot now because of the significant decline in late 2011, but we’ve really only managed to get that decline back. Context is everything and it’s interesting that we tend to have such a short term focus on asset prices that we plan to hold for a long time.[/quote]
I agree with price hasn’t really gone up over the last 3 years. There are some up and down, but I think in general, when you compare apple to apple, they’re basically flat. Were you actively looking for condos back in 2010? Right now, there are only 7 condos that are active (or at least not status not changed to contingent yet) and most of them are way over priced. Supply can’t possibly be much worse than it is now.

[livinincali]

[quote=AN]
I agree with price hasn’t really gone up over the last 3 years. There are some up and down, but I think in general, when you compare apple to apple, they’re basically flat. Were you actively looking for condos back in 2010? Right now, there are only 7 condos that are active (or at least not status not changed to contingent yet) and most of them are way over priced. Supply can’t possibly be much worse than it is now.[/quote]

I wasn’t actively looking. I was more curious as to how the tax credit was effecting the market back then. I figured MM was a prime candidate for measuring the tax credit. What I remembered was probably less than 2 months inventory and I was just using sdlookup’s numbers so if you excluded contingent and other things it might have been <1 month inventory. Inventory is constricted right now but back then I think it was worse. Just look at the numbers, people actually went ahead and overpaid for what was left then. Right now it seem buyers are more willing to pass on the overpriced listing and wait for a better one.

[an]

[quote=livinincali]I wasn’t actively looking. I was more curious as to how the tax credit was effecting the market back then. I figured MM was a prime candidate for measuring the tax credit. What I remembered was probably less than 2 months inventory and I was just using sdlookup’s numbers so if you excluded contingent and other things it might have been <1 month inventory. Inventory is constricted right now but back then I think it was worse. Just look at the numbers, people actually went ahead and overpaid for what was left then. Right now it seem buyers are more willing to pass on the overpriced listing and wait for a better one.[/quote]
I agree that there was a bump when the tax credit was expiring, which causes what looks like a big drop off in 2011. But if you smooth out the lines over the last 3 years, I stand by my statement that it's pretty much flat. WRT to sdloopup's inventory number, I don't believe that number now (I used to), due to the massive number of contingent. Although sdlookup is saying MM has a total of over 150 properties for sale, if you look on Redfin and only show active inventory, there's currently only 45 combined properties that's active. 7 of the 45 are condos. So, 45 combined properties is <1 month supply, since last month, there are 63 properties that closed. The total of ~150 total properties for sale today is only about 2.5 months of inventory. So that isn't any different than what you said was the situation in 2010.

So, my point is, I don't know if it's worse in 2010 than it is now. WRT to overpaying, I don't have any numbers to back it up, but based on what I saw and am seeing, I don't think people back then are overpaying more than people are today. This is running straight from memory (so I could be wrong), but if you compare apple to apple, price is pretty flat between 2010 and today. My gut is telling me something like this: http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/8151-Jade-Coast-Rd-92126/home/4852402 wouldn't have sold for over $400k in 2010. Or something like this: http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/10510-Parkdale-Ave-92126/home/4585282 selling for $400k.

[Coronita]

Bump….

Lol…

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-130007958-8761_Menkar_Rd_San_Diego_CA_92126

Purchased. 12/10/2012 $395,000

Asking price 2 months later 529,000 to $549,000

Have we returned back to 2004/5 where we have to start writing letters to seller explain what a nice family we are yet?

[Coronita]

Bump….

Lol…

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-130007958-8761_Menkar_Rd_San_Diego_CA_92126

Purchased. 12/10/2012 $395,000

Asking price 2 months later 529,000 to $549,000

Have we returned back to 2004/5 where we have to start writing letters to seller explain what a nice family we are yet?

[spdrun]

Mortgaged buyers: appraisal/comps will be a problem, unless $395k was really under market.
Cash buyers: “Are you out of your f**king mind, you bought this place for $150k less two months ago?”

[an]

That house is a flip. There plenty around here like that lately. Here’s another one: http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-130008108-8559_Hebrides_Dr_San_Diego_CA_92126

[spdrun]

Was anything done to it other than buying? It would make sense if the place was trashed when purchased in Dec.c

[an]

Most have new kitchen, baths, flooring, paint, and possible recess lights. Also pop corn ceiling removal. Most weren’t trashed, just old and outdated.

[spdrun]

Speaking of which, how much do popcorn ceilings cost to remove? Have seen a few condos with the same, and wonder about the possibly asbestos content and attendant removal costs.

[Coronita]

[quote=spdrun]Speaking of which, how much do popcorn ceilings cost to remove? Have seen a few condos with the same, and wonder about the possibly asbestos content and attendant removal costs.[/quote]

I’ve seen quotes around about $3k for 1500sqft, but if it really has asbestos, probably higher.

[an]

[quote=flu][quote=spdrun]Speaking of which, how much do popcorn ceilings cost to remove? Have seen a few condos with the same, and wonder about the possibly asbestos content and attendant removal costs.[/quote]

I’ve seen quotes around about $3k for 1500sqft, but if it really has asbestos, probably higher.[/quote]
my quotes were less. Around $2k for no asbestos and around $3k with abestos for around 1300 sq-ft. Its easy to do my yourself if you have the time and desire. Its just messy.

[Author]

Posts