Mira Mesa on fire-prices have started increasing

[sdrealtor]

Well the market is sizzling hot in MM these days. On a thread a while back AN and I were trying to explain how hot it has become. Another poster questioned this saying houses rarely sold at or above asking prices. I tired to explain that the data was always a few months old and that what was going on would soon be clear. Well here are. There is virtually nothing on the market there and homes are selling quickly with piles of offers but here is the real proof.

Here are the 40 closed SFR sales in the last 30 days for MM.

Asking price (or within $5K)- 14
Below asking price by $5K or more – 11
Above asking price – 15

75% closing at or above asking price with above being the most prevalent.

[sdrealtor]

BTW, the ones selling below were either overpriced by a fairly large amount or short sales where price was determined months ago.

[ltsddd]

[quote=sdrealtor]Well the market is sizzling hot in MM these days. On a thread a while back AN and I were trying to explain how hot it has become. Another poster questioned this saying houses rarely sold at or above asking prices. I tired to explain that the data was always a few months old and that what was going on would soon be clear. Well here are. There is virtually nothing on the market there and homes are selling quickly with piles of offers but here is the real proof.

Here are the 40 closed SFR sales in the last 30 days for MM.

Asking price (or within $5K)- 14
Below asking price by $5K or more – 11
Above asking price – 15

75% closing at or above asking price with above being the most prevalent.[/quote]

Maybe you have special access to some tools that I don’t have. But here’s what I could find on Redfin. The first one is set to limit the search within my targeted sub-market and the second I relaxed all constraints except for the SFR.

LP OLP SALE DATE PRICE % changed

364900 364900 05/17/12 365000 .0003
368900 389000 05/11/12 353000 -.0925
349000 349000 05/15/12 319000 -.0860
340876 340876 05/22/12 315000 -.0759
375000 399000 05/17/12 365000 -.0852
365000 365000 05/24/12 345000 -.0548
325000 325000 05/31/12 315000 -.0308
350000 350000 05/31/12 329000 -.0600
285000 314900 05/10/12 285000 -.0950
250000 250000 06/01/12 277000 .1080
275000 275000 05/25/12 275000 .0000
208880 224800 05/11/12 208880 -.0708
299000 350000 05/22/12 325000 -.0714
375000 375000 05/24/12 365000 -.0267
282900 282900 05/23/12 280000 -.0103
334888 315888 05/31/12 265000 -.1611

Sold Below OLP: 13 out of 16 (81.25%)
Sold Above OLP: 2 out of 16 (12.5%) – one of them for a whopping $100.
Sold At OLP: 1 out of 16 (6.25%)

LP OLP SALE DATE PRICE % changed

360700 360700 05/24/12 295000 -.1821
530000 530000 05/25/12 520000 -.0189
365000 380000 05/22/12 372500 -.0197
364900 364900 05/17/12 365000 .0003
368900 389000 05/11/12 353000 -.0925
349000 349000 05/15/12 319000 -.0860
340876 340876 05/22/12 315000 -.0759
375000 399000 05/17/12 365000 -.0852
365000 365000 05/24/12 345000 -.0548
325000 325000 05/31/12 315000 -.0308
350000 350000 05/31/12 329000 -.0600
285000 314900 05/10/12 285000 -.0950
429000 429000 05/15/12 392000 -.0862
348800 348800 05/14/12 360000 .0321
345900 345900 05/25/12 353000 .0205
529000 519000 05/24/12 525000 .0116
399900 399900 05/25/12 404000 .0103
350000 350000 06/01/12 340000 -.0286
250000 250000 06/01/12 277000 .1080
240000 240000 05/25/12 252000 .0500
275000 275000 05/25/12 275000 .0000
208880 224800 05/11/12 208880 -.0708
409900 409900 05/31/12 405000 -.0120
429900 429900 05/11/12 445000 .0351
489900 489900 05/16/12 480000 -.0202
316800 318800 05/11/12 320000 .0038
349900 359900 05/14/12 352000 -.0220
275000 250000 05/11/12 254000 .0160
299000 350000 05/22/12 325000 -.0714
375000 375000 05/24/12 365000 -.0267
282900 282900 05/23/12 280000 -.0103
334888 315888 05/31/12 265000 -.1611
520000 520000 05/08/12 510000 -.0192
529000 549000 05/14/12 520000 -.0528
499900 499900 05/22/12 530000 .0602
280500 280500 05/18/12 289500 .0321
447000 447000 05/29/12 435000 -.0268

# Sold below OLP: 24/37 (64.86%)
# Sold above OLP: 12/37 (32.43%)
# Sold at OLP: 1/37 (2.7%)

It hardly supports your claim of of MM being on fire – at least it doesn’t fit my definition of a housing market being on fire. For the last few weeks I actually thought prices in MM starting to move up until I saw what came out this week. I wouldn’t say a 4/2 or 3/2 listed for $329K in MM would define a market that is on fire. Considering how low the supply is you would think there would be a bidding war, but you’re not seeing that do you? The fact that the majority of the people are still able to buy below asking with a low supply should say a lot about market conditions.

I’ll let the data speaks for itself and the folks on this forum to decide for themselves whether or not “MM is on fire”.

[sdrealtor]

Every house I selling in MM has multiple offers on it. Those are bidding wars and they are everywhere. You are looking backward whereas I see the present and whats ahead. It aint pretty if you are a buyer.

I just stopped by Sorrento Heights. They released 13 homes that are probably the worst locations they have and sold 7 already. Most of the early buyers defer waiting for better locations. They will all be gone in a week or two. Those are houses with MR (the only ones in that area that have them) and HOA (most dont have them and certainly not this high) priced well over $100K above existing home resales.

The market has already turned and you will pay more the longer you wait. Not alot more quickly but more than you could have paid. You will face tougher competition and the quality of the inventory isnt as good. Anything good (like Winans Cove) got 10+ offers in a weekend and went all cash, above ask with no contingencies. You cant compete with that.

Good luck…..

BTW, a house selling within $5K of asking is basically at asking and the difference is usually some kind of concession or agent rebate.

[sdrealtor]

BTW I have much better information on listing prices than you.

Example- House listed at range from 299 to 350K sell s for 335K. Redfin shows list price of 350K and you say under. I say that is at asking price.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=sdrealtor]Every house I selling in MM has multiple offers on it. Those are bidding wars and they are everywhere. You are looking backward whereas I see the present and whats ahead. It aint pretty if you are a buyer.

I just stopped by Sorrento Heights. They released 13 homes that are probably the worst locations they have and sold 7 already. Most of the early buyers defer waiting for better locations. They will all be gone in a week or two. Those are houses with MR (the only ones in that area that have them) and HOA (most dont have them and certainly not this high) priced well over $100K above existing home resales.

The market has already turned and you will pay more the longer you wait. Not alot more quickly but more than you could have paid. You will face tougher competition and the quality of the inventory isnt as good. Anything good (like Winans Cove) got 10+ offers in a weekend and went all cash, above ask with no contingencies. You cant compete with that.

Good luck…..

BTW, a house selling within $5K of asking is basically at asking and the difference is usually some kind of concession or agent rebate.[/quote]

I understand what you’re saying here, sdr. Winans Cove was in exceptionally good condition – turnkey, in fact, with a larger lot and quality landscaping. The tracts built in the early 90’s forward are a far cry from the older tracts.

I would agree that MM is in an enviable location for access to good jobs. HOWEVER,

I have nothing against MM but the avg ’70’s/’80’s MM tract home there is what it is. Most have few walls (or “pony walls”) separating the rooms. The difference in floor coverings in these models are the only thing indicating a “change in room,” LOL. The “open floor plan” was very popular in that era. Acoustical ceilings abound and some are vaulted (some of these with beams covered with accoustical “knockdown”), making the material even more difficult to remove properly. Scaffolding is often needed to remove it from the vaulted two-story models, both in MM and PQ. The walnut/wrought iron stair railings there are very dated looking. IIRC, several tracts there were built with faulty PBT plumbing and dozens of properties there have had slab leaks. This all costs major money to correct for the new “investor.” In addition, most of the streets there are extremely crowded with parked cars.

It all “looks” enticing on the surface but my advice would be “caveat emptor” when considering a “rental quality” property purchase in MM (either SFR or condo). Before placing an offer (as a buyer) the first thing I would do is call my insurance agent and have them thoroughly check out the address on their big “computer in the sky” named CLUE :=0

[ltsddd]

[quote=sdrealtor]Every house I selling in MM has multiple offers on it. Those are bidding wars and they are everywhere.
[/quote]

If that’s how you define bidding wars then when was the housing market ever not on fire?

[quote=sdrealtor]You are looking backward whereas I see the present and whats ahead. It aint pretty if you are a buyer.
[/quote]

You are the OP of this thread. You’re the one who said MM is on fire based on the closed sales of SFRs in MM for the last 30 days.

[quote=sdrealtor]
I just stopped by Sorrento Heights. They released 13 homes that are probably the worst locations they have and sold 7 already. Most of the early buyers defer waiting for better locations. They will all be gone in a week or two. Those are houses with MR (the only ones in that area that have them) and HOA (most dont have them and certainly not this high) priced well over $100K above existing home resales.
[/quote]

Not a particular sub-market I am interested in.

[quote=sdrealtor]
The market has already turned and you will pay more the longer you wait. Not alot more quickly but more than you could have paid. You will face tougher competition and the quality of the inventory isnt as good. Anything good (like Winans Cove) got 10+ offers in a weekend and went all cash, above ask with no contingencies. You cant compete with that.
[/quote]

Maybe it is or maybe it isn’t. Ask yourself this question, with such low inventories shouldn’t these “bidding wars” be driving the prices up through the roof? That’s not what I am seeing. Maybe a year from now we’ll look back and say that yes the market is indeed turned around in MM during the 1st quarter of 2012. Until then I am not convinced. I’ve been following this market closely for 2+ years and I can tell you this, it’s been nothing but a consistent downtrend – at least for the particular sub-market that I was after (4/2 and below $350K). The only difference now (the last few months) is that the inventory has gone down to virtually zero, but that low inventory has not been reflected in the price increase. The ironic thing is that I am done with the home buying in MM and I really want to believe that that the housing market in MM has turned around. But let’s not misconstrue a bouncing off at the bottom as the market being on fire. If anything MM has been on a fire-sale.

[Coronita]

I knew I missed the window….Sigh…
Oh well, there’s always the next decade… Oh wait, I’ll be an old fart by then….

[Reality]

If any area is “on fire”, the fuel would be the lowest interest rates ever.

[SD Realtor]

I think it is always an interesting dichotomy with regards to posters who debate any submarket being hot or not hot.

Those who are actually out there looking for homes tend to be frustrated by lack of inventory or homes that are well overpriced (usually both). Those who like to sit in front of computers digging up redfin data love to bring up statistics and debate about time on market or how the sold price is a certain percentage below the list price. (Never mind that the list price was incorrect to begin with)

Markets move slowly but the problem (when you are a buyer) is that the inventory selection of what you really want moves even slower. Fairly long periods of time can pass before you find what you want.

You can say Mira Mesa is not on fire but I would disagree. I think most of the I15 corridor is a pretty tough buy right now. Homes sitting on the market are only there because they are poorly priced. Just because they don’t sell doesn’t mean the market is not very difficult for buyers right now.

[Coronita]

Speaking from just a tad bit of involvement recently and past few months, Mira Mesa is blood bath right now for buyers…It sucks if you’re even remotely interested in buying in this area….

Stuff that was listed as REO at a good price I scoffed thinking I’d have a chance at coming in with a good deal price….they were pretty much snapped up quickly.. No low balling offer possible. As much as I wish he wasn’t right, once again sdrealtor was spot on.

I don’t envy folks looking to buy in MM right now. It’s ugly…

And no worries, rates are going to fall even lower because recently just completed my refinance + heloc… 🙁

[ltsddd]

[quote=SD Realtor]
Those who are actually out there looking for homes tend to be frustrated by lack of inventory or homes that are well overpriced (usually both). Those who like to sit in front of computers digging up redfin data love to bring up statistics and debate about time on market or how the sold price is a certain percentage below the list price. (Never mind that the list price was incorrect to begin with)
[/quote]

I don’t know how many homes you helped sold or bought in MM for the last 2+ years. But I hope that the fact that I closed on 3 during that time span “bought” me some “capital” to debate on this topic. Nevertheless, your last statement in parenthesis is another way of saying that buyers shouldn’t be paying list price?

[quote=SD Realtor]
You can say Mira Mesa is not on fire but I would disagree. I think most of the I15 corridor is a pretty tough buy right now. Homes sitting on the market are only there because they are poorly priced. Just because they don’t sell doesn’t mean the market is not very difficult for buyers right now.[/quote]

I don’t have a problem with someone saying MM is tough for buyers right now. However, to correlate low inventory (tough for buyers) to a market being on fire is absurd to say the least.

[ltsddd]

[quote=flu]I knew I missed the window….Sigh…
Oh well, there’s always the next decade… Oh wait, I’ll be an old fart by then….[/quote]

You didn’t miss anything. Just call up your agent and tell him to write a full price offer on the ones you like and you’ll have a better than 80% chance to get it. The market is on fire.

[an]

[quote=ltsdd]You didn’t miss anything. Just call up your agent and tell him to write a full price offer on the ones you like and you’ll have a better than 80% chance to get it. The market is on fire.[/quote]
Is it really that easy? What if there’s nothing you like?

[ltsddd]

[quote=AN][quote=ltsdd]You didn’t miss anything. Just call up your agent and tell him to write a full price offer on the ones you like and you’ll have a better than 80% chance to get it. The market is on fire.[/quote]
Is it really that easy? What if there’s nothing you like?[/quote]

Then don’t make the offer!

[Author]

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