Megadrought Threatens California Power Blackouts This Summer

[barnaby33]

…

[phaster]

[quote=scaredyclassic]I see no technology that a problem can’t solve. Maybe Ted k. Was not entirely nuts. True, bombing people is bad, but the manifesto has aged pretty well, from it’s opening declaration onward…

“The Industrial Revolution and its consequences have been a disaster for the human race. They have greatly increased the life-expectancy of those of us who live in “advanced” countries, but they have destabilized society, have made life unfulfilling, have subjected human beings to indignities, have led to widespread psychological suffering (in the Third World to physical suffering as well) and have inflicted severe damage on the natural world. The continued development of technology will worsen the situation.”[/quote]

being lucky enough to win the pussy lottery (i.e. be born a citizen of an “advanced” country) AND also been fortunate enough to have visited in “shit hole” countries (as TRUMP would say)

http://time.com/5100058/donald-trump-shithole-countries/

IMHO,… have to say KAZANSKI was targeting the wrong idea,… technology as I see things is just a tool that can be used for “good ” or “evil”

think of it this way a scapal (which is a piece of technology) in the hands of skilled surgeon can save a persons life if for example an appendix burst and needs to be removed,… OR consider a scapal in the hands of a young child, which is a disaster in the making,… capeesh?!

as I see things the root problem humanity faces AND a problem few actually think about is not being able to differentiate a “want” from a “need”

truth is from ancient times there have been not so subtle hints that “wants” are evil and deadly,… for example consider the story of king Midas (who wanted everything he touched, turn to gold)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Midas

another example is the New Testament story of the rich man asking Jesus what he needed to do to gain entry to heaven

http://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Mark+10%3A17-31&version=RSVCE

another example of “wants” are evil and deadly, is the tolstoy story how much land does a man need

http://www.online-literature.com/tolstoy/2738/

AND yet another another example of “wants” are evil and deadly (but actually turned into a false religious belief is “the prosperity gospel”

http://www.christianitytoday.com/ct/topics/p/prosperity-gospel/

actually should point out not being able to differentiate a “want” from a “need” even applies to BLM,… in other words,… “buy large mansions” which is a greedy self serving misguided cluster fuck that is political in nature

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/black-lives-matter-was-all-about-using-white-guilt-to-make-green/ar-AAVY6gT

http://www.foxnews.com/us/california-report-comprehensive-reparations

bottom line as I see things,… humanity is slowly but surely killing itself on spaceship earth because of consumerism AND greed,… in other words people in general cannot differentiate a “want” from a “need”

[quote]
There’s a general awareness today that China and its massive industrial sector generate more carbon emissions than any other country, which is one of the reasons that parts of the nation have to endure some serious issues with smog and airborne pollutants.

But according to a new study, if you want to know what’s really driving the impact on the planet, you need to look past the obvious primary factors taking a toll on the environment – like industry and agriculture – and instead realise whose needs those things are servicing.

From that perspective, researchers say household consumers are by far the biggest drain on the planet, which makes for a very different picture to purely nation-focused analyses of environmental impact. In other words, before we start blaming whole countries for the state of the planet, we should probably be looking at our own habits and demands.

http://www.sciencealert.com/consumers-have-a-bigger-impact-on-the-environment-than-anything-else-study-finds
[/quote]

PS FWIW given this is a real estate forum, if humanity is going to dodge extinction, this is how I think real estate “rental” housing is going to evolve in an era of diminished natural resources

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iCGXVk-cBVk

[scaredyclassic]

on the other hand, life probably sucked thousands of years ago too. But at least they left the planet inhabitable for us.

[phaster]

[quote=scaredyclassic]on the other hand, life probably sucked thousands of years ago too . But at least they left the planet inhabitable for us.[/quote]

thousands of years ago the bronze age collapse happened

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B965f8AcNbw

in South Western part of the USA and in Central America (about a thousand years ago) there were periods of severe drought that caused organized societies to collapse

http://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-antiquity/article/abs/cannibalism-warfare-and-drought-in-the-mesa-verde-region-during-the-twelfth-century-ad/D345F6ECE2D92C6085C5513F2084F701

http://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/ancient-mesoamerica/article/drought-and-the-maya-collapse/B6B6AE2657A4635D65D520142D402DC1

thought I’d point out these historical events because there is an expression,… “Those Who Do Not Learn History Are Doomed To Repeat It”

FWIW WRT drought

Global Drought Could Impact More Than 75% of World Population by 2050: UN Report

basically the topic of climate-change AND drought has been on the radar screen of military strategists for a while (but because politicians and the public at large have essentially no backbone, the issue has not been addressed so that is why we are where we are)

Climate Change and National Security in the 2014 Quadrennial Defense Review

said another way the drought issue isn’t going to magically fix itself AND from what I know have to say the drought (in the next decade) is going to make covid look like a walk in the park (given current trends)!

I mention my pessimism because one of my failed venture capital investments was in “waterfx” which was a group that tried to raise 10 million to build a pilot concentrated solar still on an industrial scale

California’s First Concentrated Solar Power Desalination Plant to Bring Freshwater to the Central Valley

http://www.wwdmag.com/san-francisco-agency-launches-crowdfunding-campaign-california-water-project

sadly I pitched in but there wasn’t enough interest in the market place so had my money returned to me

as I envisioned things, concentrated solar desal could be installed in local urban areas like existing salt evaporation ponds (like in san diego south bay or up in the bay area which could be a win win situation)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Bay_Salt_Works

http://www.cargill.com/page/sf/sf-bay-salt-ponds

…in other words if an up front investment was made in scaleable concentrated solar stills (years ago), over the long run production for “salt” would increase and provide a useful by-product “fresh water” that could be used locally

PS here is yet another example of political leadership in CA having their head where the sun don’t shine,…

[quote=CNBC]

Lithium industry executives say California officials are asking for a fixed payment of $800 to $1,200 for every ton of metal produced at the southern end of the Salton Sea, and argue that such a high tax would wipe out production before it starts.

“The state is talking about a flat-rate taxarray . . . with a ridiculous figure that wipes out the lithium industry in the United States,” said Rod Colwell, CEO of CT Resources, one of three corporations running the best pilot and scale systems. giant lithium mining projects from a giant underground reserve.

He said the proposed constant tonnage rates “make Chinese lithium much less expensive to import” than domestic compounds that would be produced in imperial county.

http://www.desertsun.com/story/news/environment/2022/06/02/stellantis-buy-lithium-produced-salton-sea-controlled-thermal-resources/7483424001/

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zfZqpdt3Zy0
[/quote]

[phaster]

[quote=barnaby33]

Back to water. My preference would be a combination of restrictions on usage, raising of prices and outright banning of growing certain crops. Almonds for export are the poster child, but in CA rice and cotton should never be grown either. Market forces by themselves will not stabilize or assure food availability or the survival of civilization in a desert.

Josh[/quote]

the unsustainable drought poster crop in California and the rest of the arid SW USA IMHO is alfalfa,… and the reason is because it is grown AND exported as feed for live stock in china

California Alfalfa Exports Take Hit from China Tariffs

AND saudia arabia

http://www.purewatergazette.net/blog/sending-california-water-to-saudia-arabia-in-the-form-of-alfalfa-march-10-2016/

…basically the reason the farmers in California (and other parts of the USA) are growing alfalfa is because people in other parts of the world want to to consume more animal protein

…AND FWIW data seems to indicate because of the Putin “Military Action” in Ukraine along w/ excess global debt that appears to be unserviceable odds are there is going to be a global famine (on a biblical scale)

PS FYI

[quote]
Everyone gets less water during a drought. But the breakdowns of the state and federal projects’ water allocations show some groups — particularly farmers who have longtime rights to divert water — faring better than others.

They also reflect the overwhelming thirst of Southern California towns and cities — some of the most arid, and populous, parts of the state. The Chronicle analyzed this year’s expected water allocations from the California State Water Project and the federal Central Valley Project, and how they break down and compare to previous years.

Here are some of the biggest takeaways of who got more from where:

State Water Project

The State Water Project, which includes the 444-mile long California Aqueduct and the Oroville Dam, supplies water to some 27 million Californians and 750,000 acres of farmland, according to the state water department, its operator. It also generates power and provides for recreational areas in the state.

The project has 29 long-term contractors — smaller, regional water providers, including cities, towns and irrigation districts, that sell the water to customers. For the past two decades, about a third of State Water Project water was for agricultural use and two-thirds for municipal, industrial or residential uses, state officials said. For the second year in a row, the State Water Project is expected to deliver only 5% of the amount requested from contractors. The last time allocation was that low was in 2014 — the third year in that drought spell. “We’re not going to expect much additional precipitation on the horizon,” said Molly White, the project’s water operations manager. The 2022 cuts were deep across the board among the 29 contractors, but some cuts were less harsh than others. Most were approved for just 5% of their requested amounts, but the state awarded larger percentages to communities with critical health and safety needs. “Folks at the Department of Water Resources have been very clear that they’re not going to reduce allocation to 5% if that supplier’s going to have to turn off water to residences,” White said.

Napa and Solano counties’ water districts were approved for 15% of their requested amounts, compared with the 5% contractors in the Central Valley and Southern California received. But these Bay Area communities requested far smaller amounts to begin with. The allocation amounts are based on a variety of factors, including river flows, water storage conditions, environmental requirements and how much rain and snow there has been, the water operations manager said. In terms of the total amount of water, Southern California water agencies still take the bulk — nearly half — of State Water Project water, with the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California expected to get the most, at almost 96,000 acre-feet. The Metropolitan Water District is a public regional wholesaler cooperative supplying water to roughly 19 million people in California through its numerous member agencies. This year, for the first time, it required significant cutbacks from its users, who must limit lawn-watering to one day a week. Small water suppliers, especially those who rely entirely on one source and don’t have alternatives to fall back on, tend to be much more vulnerable to water shortage, according to the water department. Most water suppliers don’t rely solely on one source of water, however. Many, like the East Bay Municipal Utility District, have several sources, including access to reservoirs, groundwater pumping and purchasing water from other providers. Annually, the State Water Project delivers 2 million to 4 million acre-feet of water. An acre-foot — about 326,000 gallons — generally provides enough water for one to two households for a year. By comparison, the Colorado River — another huge water source for the state, especially farmers in Southern California — is supposed to deliver 4.4 million acre-feet annually to California, though cutbacks are on the horizon due to the drought. Central Valley Project

California’s Central Valley Project, run by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, is much bigger than the State Water Project and is geared more toward agriculture. It counts more than 270 contractors, including the big irrigation districts in the San Joaquin Valley. It has historically supplied water for 3 million acres of farmland. The federal waterworks also serves communities in the Bay Area and wildlife refuges.

The project, which captures water from the southern Cascades to the southern Sierra Nevada, consists of 20 dams and reservoirs – including the state’s largest, Shasta Lake — and operates more than 500 miles of canals and pipelines to deliver water. It also operates 11 power plants. This year, because of the drought, federal water managers announced that no project water would be sent to many of its contractors, effectively a 0% allocation. Those who receive water are doing so because of contractual obligations that date back decades or because of health and safety issues. Faring best are senior water rights holders, typically farmers and irrigation districts.

This is not because the project allocates water based on water rights but because the federal government, in order to operate its project, committed to providing water to senior users who were drawing water from the Sacramento and San Joaquin river watersheds before the project began drawing water. Senior users are those with water rights dating back the longest. But even those users are falling far short of what they normally get: This year, because of low flows, federal water managers made a deal with senior users in the Sacramento River watershed to take less than what they’re due — just 18% of what they requested.

While the project’s municipal and industrial contractors were officially allocated no water, the federal government is providing these customers enough to meet minimum health and safety needs. The Contra Costa Water District in the East Bay, for example, is getting 34% of its requested allocation. Agricultural contractors who don’t have senior water rights in the Sacramento and San Joaquin river watersheds are not getting any project water. In the Friant (Fresno County) area, some contractors are receiving limited deliveries because the source of water there is different than in the rest of the project area, and federal managers say water is available. The Central Valley Project has historically delivered about 7 million acre feet of water annually. By comparison, the Colorado River is supposed to deliver 4.4 million acre-feet annually to California, though cutbacks are on the horizon due to the drought.

http://www.sfchronicle.com/climate/article/California-drought-17269648.php
[/quote]

[evolusd]

Given the drop in water level at Lake Mead, started reading a bit and came across this:

https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/trend/archive/spring-2019/a-map-of-the-future-of-water

Wondering if it might be smart to buy some land in one of those blue areas with groundwater well potential to promote water security for my family if the current trend in So Cal continues to accelerate. The northwest has always been interesting to me as a mountain biker and lover of forests.

[phaster]

[quote=evolusd]Given the drop in water level at Lake Mead, started reading a bit and came across this:

https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/trend/archive/spring-2019/a-map-of-the-future-of-water

Wondering if it might be smart to buy some land in one of those blue areas with groundwater well potential to promote water security for my family if the current trend in So Cal continues to accelerate. The northwest has always been interesting to me as a mountain biker and lover of forests.[/quote]

real estate in the northwest could be an interesting play (if you are actually serious about moving there),… BUT as I read the tea leaves San Diego real estate “price appreciation” will still out perform many other global regions (including the USA market,… even given the thus far unresolved “political” drought issue in the SW USA)

https://www.piggington.com/east_county_sd_v_st_george_gzz’s_budget_mcmansion_lifestyle?page=1#comment-299601

the reason I think the SD area is going to be a safer long term “bet” even w/ $hit for brains political leadership like Gavin Newsom

[quote]
In his time at the California State Water Resources Control Board, Max Gomberg has witnessed the state grapple with two devastating droughts and the accelerating effects of climate change.

Now, after 10 years of recommending strategies for making California more water resilient, the board’s climate and conservation manager is calling it quits. The reason: He no longer believes Gov. Gavin Newsom and his administration are willing to pursue the sorts of transformational changes necessary in an age of growing aridification.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-07-28/california-drought-official-blasts-newsom-administration
[/quote]

…is because of the various “local” military bases that protect the US southern border (on the coast) along w/ the higher level education university schools (in particular UCSD)

Bottom line given climate change, the severe drought in the SW region AND high global debt levels

is going to all combine and result in de-globalization,… so interior SW cities in the USA like “lost wages” and phoenix are going to decline as time goes forward

https://www.piggington.com/california_real_estate_international_store_value

PS sadly one other environmental “water” issue is,…

[quote]
Rainwater everywhere on the planet is unsafe to drink due to levels of toxic chemicals known as PFAS that exceed the latest guidelines, according to a new study by Stockholm University scientists.

Commonly known as ‘forever chemicals’ because they disintegrate extremely slowly, PFAS (per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances) were initially found in packaging, shampoo or makeup but have spread to our entire environment, including water and air.

“There is nowhere on Earth where the rain would be safe to drink, according to the measurements that we have taken,” Ian Cousins, a professor at the university and the lead author of the study published in Environmental Science and Technology

https://phys.org/news/2022-08-rainwater-unsafe-due-chemicals.html
[/quote]

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=barnaby33]

and have inflicted severe damage on the natural world. The continued development of technology will worsen the situation.”

Weirdly I agree with scaredy and phaster (mostly weird that I’m agreeing with scaredy)

AN specifically for you, I’m linking my favorite essay. I know it’s a bit of a read, maybe 30 minutes, but I re-read it every few years. This nails it!

Phaster, I make no sure and certain claim when fusion, or if fusion is our energy future. I just see no viable path forward without it. You and I seem to agree on water, it’s just that water is a subset of energy availability. Currently oil still has the best EROEI, but has nasty long tail costs. In fact all current energy sources except geothermal have those costs, especially nuclear. My biggest fear about nuclear power is that it dovetails so cleanly with human capacity for short term thinking at the cost of long term environmental health.

Back to water. My preference would be a combination of restrictions on usage, raising of prices and outright banning of growing certain crops. Almonds for export are the poster child, but in CA rice and cotton should never be grown either. Market forces by themselves will not stabilize or assure food availability or the survival of civilization in a desert.
Josh[/quote]

Frankly I disagree with almost everything I think within a couple days.

[flyer]

Fantastic posts from Phaster, Josh and Scaredy, and, for the most part, my sentiments, exactly. Regardless of how complex the analysis, and however brilliant we believe ourselves to be, it all really boils down to this summation, “Civilizations and empires, in the end, are just ripples in the ocean of time.”

[scaredyclassic]

When this civilization falls it will be an incredibly short period of time before there is almost no trace it existed.just a little sliver in the geologic record.

Have you ever heard of the 10000 year clock?

https://www.10000yearclock.net/learnmore.html

Cool engineering project in remote desert to build a desert clock that will outlast the destruction of everything you know as us.

Difficult task…the earth tends to swallow everything

“Welcome to the 10,000 Year Clock website
We are building a 10,000 Year Clock. It’s a special Clock, designed to be a symbol, an icon for long-term thinking. It’s of monumental scale inside a mountain in West Texas. The father of the Clock is Danny Hillis. He’s been thinking about and working on the Clock since 1989. He wanted to build a Clock that ticks once a year, where the century hand advances once every 100 years, and the cuckoo comes out on the millennium. The vision was, and still is, to build a Clock that will keep time for the next 10,000 years. I’ve been helping Danny with the project for the last half dozen years. As I see it, humans are now technologically advanced enough that we can create not only extraordinary wonders but also civilization-scale problems. We’re likely to need more long-term thinking.”

[The-Shoveler]

They (the experts) are saying we need to cut water usage by about 25%,

75% is used (really really inefficiently) watering crops, (basically just letting it run down watering furrows or using large sprinklers shooting enormous amounts of water several hundred feet through the air).

IMO really all we need to do is fix that.

[flyer]

The federal government is now stepping in to regulate water cuts. For now, only AZ and NV are effected, but CA may also eventually be on the chopping block.

I know San Diego is in a better position than most areas of the state, so it will be interesting to see how it all plays out for us, locally.

https://calmatters.org/environment/2022/08/colorado-river-water-california/

[phaster]

[quote=flyer]The federal government is now stepping in to regulate water cuts. For now, only AZ and NV are effected, but CA may also eventually be on the chopping block.

I know San Diego is in a better position than most areas of the state, so it will be interesting to see how it all plays out for us, locally.

https://calmatters.org/environment/2022/08/colorado-river-water-california/
[/quote]

actually what most do not realize is the global magnitude of the “drought” problem,…

CHINA

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-takes-action-alleviate-drought-record-heatwave-continues-2022-08-17/

https://apnews.com/article/china-asia-droughts-chongqing-a6b831a3e718f5fb5f46ee5f63cf331d

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-16/china-joins-europe-in-facing-threats-from-worsening-drought

INDIA

https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/india-monsoon-rainfall-deficit-uttar-pradesh-jharkhand-bihar-farmers-drought-8087529/

https://www.telegraphindia.com/india/drought-hit-bihar-gets-free-seeds/cid/1880771

EUROPE

https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2022/08/photos-europe-drought/671143/

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2333938-europes-extreme-drought-is-exacerbating-food-and-energy-crises/

LATINA AMERICA

Latin America and the Caribbean 2021: ‘mega-drought, extreme rainfall, heatwaves, glacier melt’

AFRICA

https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/international/environment/1660485429-africa-s-drought-sees-the-masai-way-of-life-evaporate

basically “drought” is happening on a global scale and sad fact of the matter is looking at the trends being reported in the “news” the odds are billions of people will feel the adverse knock on effects of water resource mismanagement

the question I wonder about is how long will the public at large remain blind to the scientific fact(s)

yeah I know there is the expression “ignorance is bliss,…” BUT as I see things, this only compounds the overall suffering

[flyer]

Yes, sadly, I realize the global impact of every facet of our climate crisis. We travel often, and have seen and felt the many changes taking place here in the states, and around the world.

We’re heading to Europe again in the fall, which is our favorite time to travel, and, although we spend more time in the cities and coastal regions, it will, no doubt, be sad to see how the fires have ravaged some of the once beautiful countrysides of France and Spain.

I can only hope things will get better as we, as a society, try to make improvements, but, and I hope I’m wrong, the most glorious days of planet earth may be behind us.

[scaredyclassic]

since we all know this, it would seem like we’d all be driven to some form of radical action, since we probably have people who will survive us in the fuutre we give a shit about, but surprisingly, we only care about ourselves and our small pleasures in the present moment, so onwards to more steak, dairy gas and environmental destruction for bigger houses, bigger lawns, bigger cars, more for us now to enjoy and nibble away so that the entire system dies with us or shortly thereafter.

Hooray for us. We are all little Trumps.

[Author]

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