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NotCranky.
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May 17, 2007 at 11:22 AM #53300May 17, 2007 at 11:22 AM #53307
LA_Renter
ParticipantThats exactly the way I see it Kev. I can tell you that I am seeing some anecdotal evidence of a slow down in my business which is not directly related to RE. My customers who are basically distributors are belly aching right now. I am talking with my peers in California and we are seeing a definite softening.
Those numbers are alarming and they should be alarming to each sector of housing. Basically the plankton of the housing food chain is disappearing. Regarding home prices falling I keep on remembering my statistical analysis class I took in college. Prices are always a lagging indicator. You will more than likely see the steepest price drops as actual RE investment bottoms and improves. Thats what happened last time.
May 17, 2007 at 11:38 AM #53304tech_junkie
ParticipantThats exactly the way I see it Kev. I can tell you that I am seeing some anecdotal evidence of a slow down in my business which is not directly related to RE. My customers who are basically distributors are belly aching right now. I am talking with my peers in California and we are seeing a definite softening. Those numbers are alarming and they should be alarming to each sector of housing. Basically the plankton of the housing food chain is disappearing. Regarding home prices falling I keep on remembering my statistical analysis class I took in college. Prices are always a lagging indicator. You will more than likely see the steepest price drops as actual RE investment bottoms and improves. Thats what happened last time.
That's an interesting point too. See, my concern is that despite how we all want home prices to come down to make then more affordable. A huge downturn isn't just going to impact the housing industry. Small Biz/Mid biz is going to get hit. Average people are going to get hit. So, unless folks are sitting on a wand of cash in assets that aren't depreciating as fast as the dollar and don't need to worry about working, most folks that can't afford homes in good times also won't be able to afford homes in downturns too.
May 17, 2007 at 11:38 AM #53311ParticipantThats exactly the way I see it Kev. I can tell you that I am seeing some anecdotal evidence of a slow down in my business which is not directly related to RE. My customers who are basically distributors are belly aching right now. I am talking with my peers in California and we are seeing a definite softening. Those numbers are alarming and they should be alarming to each sector of housing. Basically the plankton of the housing food chain is disappearing. Regarding home prices falling I keep on remembering my statistical analysis class I took in college. Prices are always a lagging indicator. You will more than likely see the steepest price drops as actual RE investment bottoms and improves. Thats what happened last time.
That's an interesting point too. See, my concern is that despite how we all want home prices to come down to make then more affordable. A huge downturn isn't just going to impact the housing industry. Small Biz/Mid biz is going to get hit. Average people are going to get hit. So, unless folks are sitting on a wand of cash in assets that aren't depreciating as fast as the dollar and don't need to worry about working, most folks that can't afford homes in good times also won't be able to afford homes in downturns too.
May 17, 2007 at 11:41 AM #53306sdduuuude
ParticipantDo you have any inventory info?
I know you think total sales is the most important figure, but I think it is the months of inventory – i.e.
inventory / sales.
May 17, 2007 at 11:41 AM #53313ParticipantDo you have any inventory info?
I know you think total sales is the most important figure, but I think it is the months of inventory – i.e.
inventory / sales.
May 17, 2007 at 11:45 AM #53308an
ParticipantI’m sure Data Quick number will be different but here’s a good site that track median price and inventory of many cities in the US: Linky. Base on this site, inventory in SD is up 2% compare to last year, 7.7% compare to last month, and 21.4% compare to 3 months ago.
May 17, 2007 at 11:45 AM #53315ParticipantI’m sure Data Quick number will be different but here’s a good site that track median price and inventory of many cities in the US: Linky. Base on this site, inventory in SD is up 2% compare to last year, 7.7% compare to last month, and 21.4% compare to 3 months ago.
May 17, 2007 at 11:51 AM #53310IONEGARM
Participant“However, the MONTHLY DECLINES are ESPECIALLY TROUBLING, considering sales are SUPPOSED TO INCREASE through Spring, BEFORE Summer”
I disagree, about MoM, there are many seasonal variations (spring break, easter) reasons why April is usually less than march. YoY is still the best indicator, MoM is useless without a smartly made seasonal adjustment.
There is no doubt this spring selling season is incredibly weak.
May 17, 2007 at 11:51 AM #53317Participant“However, the MONTHLY DECLINES are ESPECIALLY TROUBLING, considering sales are SUPPOSED TO INCREASE through Spring, BEFORE Summer”
I disagree, about MoM, there are many seasonal variations (spring break, easter) reasons why April is usually less than march. YoY is still the best indicator, MoM is useless without a smartly made seasonal adjustment.
There is no doubt this spring selling season is incredibly weak.
May 17, 2007 at 11:57 AM #53312sdrealtor
ParticipantFirst 2 weeks in May county wide numbers are down about 30%. After late reporters I’d expect to see volume is down 20%.
NCC is looking like it will be flat to down 10%.
May 17, 2007 at 11:57 AM #53319ParticipantFirst 2 weeks in May county wide numbers are down about 30%. After late reporters I’d expect to see volume is down 20%.
NCC is looking like it will be flat to down 10%.
May 17, 2007 at 12:32 PM #53316bubble_contagion
ParticipantSD RE sales from rereports.com
March 04: 2,366
April 04: 2,550March 05: 2,179
April 05: 2,268March 06: 1,880
April 06: 1,604March 07: 1,489
April 07: 1,451In the last two years sales have decreased from March to April and during 04 and 05 sales increased. Sales have been decreasing year-over-year during the last fours years while inventory increased by 400% when compared to March 04 (the absolute low). Still prices haven’t budged much. Go figure….
May 17, 2007 at 12:32 PM #53323ParticipantSD RE sales from rereports.com
March 04: 2,366
April 04: 2,550March 05: 2,179
April 05: 2,268March 06: 1,880
April 06: 1,604March 07: 1,489
April 07: 1,451In the last two years sales have decreased from March to April and during 04 and 05 sales increased. Sales have been decreasing year-over-year during the last fours years while inventory increased by 400% when compared to March 04 (the absolute low). Still prices haven’t budged much. Go figure….
May 17, 2007 at 1:10 PM #53326Anonymous
GuestUsing data going back to ’88, sales of resale homes in San Diego have been, on average, 2% higher in April than in March.
So, an April drop is noteworthy.
May sales have been, on average, 2% higher than April. Peak is in June, which have been, on average, 10% higher than May.
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