May Shoe Just DROPPED !

[latesummer2008]

How much damage do people need to see? The first big shoe just dropped yesterday. APRIL was HORRIBLE !

Here are the numbers:

California Total # of Sales (-28.5%) Y.O.Y

California Total # of Sales (-12.2%) MONTHLY DECLINE !
(12 year LOW)

So. Cal Total # of Sales (-28.9%) Y.O.Y

So. Cal Total # of Sales (-11.8%) MONTHLY DECLINE !

Year over Year figures are the best figures to look at here. However, the MONTHLY DECLINES are ESPECIALLY TROUBLING, considering sales are SUPPOSED TO INCREASE through Spring, BEFORE Summer.

Market is dropping from a CLIFF, folks…

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[latesummer2008]

SD and LA April Numbers are here. More Bad news I’m afraid. Or good news, depending on your point of view.

TOTAL NUMBER OF SALES (most important figure to analyze)

San Diego County (-13.5%) Year over Year
Median Price (-3.0%) Year over Year ($490,000)

Los Angeles County got Hammered (-22.2%) Year over Year

Orange County got Hammered (-24.7%) Year over Year

Riverside (-45.1%)and San Bernadino (-46.5%) BOTH, got Slaughtered !!!

Ventura (-11.7%) Year over Year

You can check the figures at Data Quick

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[JWM in SD]

Yeah, let’s see the permabulls spin this one. This is probably why Lereah bailed when he did.

[little lady]

Yes but when will the BIG house decline in prices hit?

Im waiting with baited breath……….

[latesummer2008]

June Numbers will Worsen… Lending is tightening, ARMS resetting, RE FRAUD, Swelling Inventory etc., etc, etc…I believe we are at THE TURNING POINT where SIGNIFICANT PRICE DROPS will begin occuring ALL OVER THE SOUTHLAND. Once the MSM sinks their teeth into this, they will milk it all summer long, making it worse and worse and worse.

Can’t spin the Month to Month figures anymore.
Can’t barely spin the Median (B.S.) figures anymore.
Can’t spin the Year over Year figures anymore.
Can’t spin JACK !

Even Bernanke is now TRYING to do DAMAGE CONTROL with Subslime. He knows his ship is sinking..

CHECKMATE !!! NAR, CAR, NAHB, Mortgage Brokers, Banks, & RE Agents. GAME OVER…

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[HereWeGo]

I’ve believed for some time that Q2 2007 would be the opening act for the housing downturn.

Now the question is, how is the default risk truly distributed? How is the risk dispersed?

[kev374]

This is all inevitable however what we should be concerned is the fallout. These types of statistics cannot be good for employment and that affects all of us.

[LA_Renter]

Thats exactly the way I see it Kev. I can tell you that I am seeing some anecdotal evidence of a slow down in my business which is not directly related to RE. My customers who are basically distributors are belly aching right now. I am talking with my peers in California and we are seeing a definite softening.

Those numbers are alarming and they should be alarming to each sector of housing. Basically the plankton of the housing food chain is disappearing. Regarding home prices falling I keep on remembering my statistical analysis class I took in college. Prices are always a lagging indicator. You will more than likely see the steepest price drops as actual RE investment bottoms and improves. Thats what happened last time.

[tech_junkie]

Thats exactly the way I see it Kev. I can tell you that I am seeing some anecdotal evidence of a slow down in my business which is not directly related to RE. My customers who are basically distributors are belly aching right now. I am talking with my peers in California and we are seeing a definite softening. Those numbers are alarming and they should be alarming to each sector of housing. Basically the plankton of the housing food chain is disappearing. Regarding home prices falling I keep on remembering my statistical analysis class I took in college. Prices are always a lagging indicator. You will more than likely see the steepest price drops as actual RE investment bottoms and improves. Thats what happened last time.

 

That's an interesting point too. See, my concern is that despite how we all want home prices to come down to make then more affordable. A huge downturn isn't just going to impact the housing industry. Small Biz/Mid biz is going to get hit. Average people are going to get hit. So, unless folks are sitting on a wand of cash in assets that aren't depreciating as fast as the dollar and don't need to worry about working, most folks that can't afford homes in good times also won't be able to afford homes in downturns too.

 

[tech_junkie]

Thats exactly the way I see it Kev. I can tell you that I am seeing some anecdotal evidence of a slow down in my business which is not directly related to RE. My customers who are basically distributors are belly aching right now. I am talking with my peers in California and we are seeing a definite softening. Those numbers are alarming and they should be alarming to each sector of housing. Basically the plankton of the housing food chain is disappearing. Regarding home prices falling I keep on remembering my statistical analysis class I took in college. Prices are always a lagging indicator. You will more than likely see the steepest price drops as actual RE investment bottoms and improves. Thats what happened last time.

 

That's an interesting point too. See, my concern is that despite how we all want home prices to come down to make then more affordable. A huge downturn isn't just going to impact the housing industry. Small Biz/Mid biz is going to get hit. Average people are going to get hit. So, unless folks are sitting on a wand of cash in assets that aren't depreciating as fast as the dollar and don't need to worry about working, most folks that can't afford homes in good times also won't be able to afford homes in downturns too.

 

[LA_Renter]

Thats exactly the way I see it Kev. I can tell you that I am seeing some anecdotal evidence of a slow down in my business which is not directly related to RE. My customers who are basically distributors are belly aching right now. I am talking with my peers in California and we are seeing a definite softening.

Those numbers are alarming and they should be alarming to each sector of housing. Basically the plankton of the housing food chain is disappearing. Regarding home prices falling I keep on remembering my statistical analysis class I took in college. Prices are always a lagging indicator. You will more than likely see the steepest price drops as actual RE investment bottoms and improves. Thats what happened last time.

[kev374]

This is all inevitable however what we should be concerned is the fallout. These types of statistics cannot be good for employment and that affects all of us.

[HereWeGo]

I’ve believed for some time that Q2 2007 would be the opening act for the housing downturn.

Now the question is, how is the default risk truly distributed? How is the risk dispersed?

[latesummer2008]

June Numbers will Worsen… Lending is tightening, ARMS resetting, RE FRAUD, Swelling Inventory etc., etc, etc…I believe we are at THE TURNING POINT where SIGNIFICANT PRICE DROPS will begin occuring ALL OVER THE SOUTHLAND. Once the MSM sinks their teeth into this, they will milk it all summer long, making it worse and worse and worse.

Can’t spin the Month to Month figures anymore.
Can’t barely spin the Median (B.S.) figures anymore.
Can’t spin the Year over Year figures anymore.
Can’t spin JACK !

Even Bernanke is now TRYING to do DAMAGE CONTROL with Subslime. He knows his ship is sinking..

CHECKMATE !!! NAR, CAR, NAHB, Mortgage Brokers, Banks, & RE Agents. GAME OVER…

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[little lady]

Yes but when will the BIG house decline in prices hit?

Im waiting with baited breath……….

[JWM in SD]

Yeah, let’s see the permabulls spin this one. This is probably why Lereah bailed when he did.

[an]

Wow, Riverside and SB really got slaughtered. I’m in awed right now that volume can drop like that. Amazing.

[an]

Wow, Riverside and SB really got slaughtered. I’m in awed right now that volume can drop like that. Amazing.

[sdduuuude]

Do you have any inventory info?

I know you think total sales is the most important figure, but I think it is the months of inventory – i.e.

inventory / sales.

[an]

I’m sure Data Quick number will be different but here’s a good site that track median price and inventory of many cities in the US: Linky. Base on this site, inventory in SD is up 2% compare to last year, 7.7% compare to last month, and 21.4% compare to 3 months ago.

[an]

I’m sure Data Quick number will be different but here’s a good site that track median price and inventory of many cities in the US: Linky. Base on this site, inventory in SD is up 2% compare to last year, 7.7% compare to last month, and 21.4% compare to 3 months ago.

[sdduuuude]

Do you have any inventory info?

I know you think total sales is the most important figure, but I think it is the months of inventory – i.e.

inventory / sales.

[latesummer2008]

SD and LA April Numbers are here. More Bad news I’m afraid. Or good news, depending on your point of view.

TOTAL NUMBER OF SALES (most important figure to analyze)

San Diego County (-13.5%) Year over Year
Median Price (-3.0%) Year over Year ($490,000)

Los Angeles County got Hammered (-22.2%) Year over Year

Orange County got Hammered (-24.7%) Year over Year

Riverside (-45.1%)and San Bernadino (-46.5%) BOTH, got Slaughtered !!!

Ventura (-11.7%) Year over Year

You can check the figures at Data Quick

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[IONEGARM]

“However, the MONTHLY DECLINES are ESPECIALLY TROUBLING, considering sales are SUPPOSED TO INCREASE through Spring, BEFORE Summer”

I disagree, about MoM, there are many seasonal variations (spring break, easter) reasons why April is usually less than march. YoY is still the best indicator, MoM is useless without a smartly made seasonal adjustment.

There is no doubt this spring selling season is incredibly weak.

[sdrealtor]

First 2 weeks in May county wide numbers are down about 30%. After late reporters I’d expect to see volume is down 20%.

NCC is looking like it will be flat to down 10%.

[sdrealtor]

First 2 weeks in May county wide numbers are down about 30%. After late reporters I’d expect to see volume is down 20%.

NCC is looking like it will be flat to down 10%.

[IONEGARM]

“However, the MONTHLY DECLINES are ESPECIALLY TROUBLING, considering sales are SUPPOSED TO INCREASE through Spring, BEFORE Summer”

I disagree, about MoM, there are many seasonal variations (spring break, easter) reasons why April is usually less than march. YoY is still the best indicator, MoM is useless without a smartly made seasonal adjustment.

There is no doubt this spring selling season is incredibly weak.

[bubble_contagion]

SD RE sales from rereports.com

March 04: 2,366
April 04: 2,550

March 05: 2,179
April 05: 2,268

March 06: 1,880
April 06: 1,604

March 07: 1,489
April 07: 1,451

In the last two years sales have decreased from March to April and during 04 and 05 sales increased. Sales have been decreasing year-over-year during the last fours years while inventory increased by 400% when compared to March 04 (the absolute low). Still prices haven’t budged much. Go figure….

[Anonymous]

Using data going back to ’88, sales of resale homes in San Diego have been, on average, 2% higher in April than in March.

So, an April drop is noteworthy.

May sales have been, on average, 2% higher than April. Peak is in June, which have been, on average, 10% higher than May.

[Anonymous]

Using data going back to ’88, sales of resale homes in San Diego have been, on average, 2% higher in April than in March.

So, an April drop is noteworthy.

May sales have been, on average, 2% higher than April. Peak is in June, which have been, on average, 10% higher than May.

[little lady]

“First 2 weeks in May county wide numbers are down about 30%. After late reporters I’d expect to see volume is down 20%.”

Thanks, I can’t wait till the fall! Do have any assumptions on what will happen then? I keep reading that it might pick up then. Though I find it hard to believe.

[ibjames]

I imagine the fall to cool off even more, school is starting, people usually do not want to move. They want to be in place before fall.

[4plexowner]

Rumor has it that IBM is about to announce layoffs of 150,000 people in the US

The recent purchase of Chrysler is likely to result in significant layoffs

George Ure at http://www.urbansurvival.com is expecting the public’s awareness of unemployment to jump significantly this summer and fall

Negative sentiment / worry over the job situation in this country is not going to help the housing market

[NotCranky]

Today my wife and I were discussing goals..I wonder to myself. Why did we end up on this topic…. What is the difference between a recession a depression and aramageddon? LOL. My ignorance at this point is not comforting!Time to get a good book or start talking with some really old people I guess.

Thanks for your work latesummer.
Does the late summer 08 imply that you are forcasting to buy then or that it is when you think the macaroni hits the fan?

[4plexowner]

Rustico – read “Creature from Jekyll Island: A Second Look at the Federal Reserve”, by G. Edward Griffin

This book should be required reading for all Americans and is definitely required reading for anyone who wants to understand how our economy works

Don’t be intimidated by the size of this book – each chapter and section has an overview and summary – the author offers a quick reading guide that allows the reader to get an overview of this book in a few hours of reading

We need to get enough Americans to understand how the economy works so we can do something about it (abolish the Federal Reserve) – right now, most Americans think the Federal Reserve is part of the government and that the Federal Reserve has the best interests of Americans at heart – reality is that the Federal Reserve is a criminal organization that was legalized in 1913 by hood-winking the Congress

Read this book if you are really interested in understanding how our economy works

[NotCranky]

4plex,
Thanks I have tackled some difficult books on other subject matter. I guess I have half a brain for almost any topic. Is that a good enough starting point for this Recommendation of yours?

[latesummer2008]

Late Summer 2008 is my prediction for the first buying opportunity on the WESTSIDE of LOS ANGELES. I will stick by that prediction. IMHO, I believe the price declines will be QUICKER and DEEPER, than most think.

Why ?

1)Market peaked in Late Summer 2005 (3 years time)
2)Once panic sets in it will be a BLOODBATH.
3)We will drag along the bottom for 2-3 MORE years (2011)
4)Late Summer 2008 will be the WORST of WORST, before bottom fishers start nibbling.
5)Different areas may start earlier or later, depending when their market peaked.

Any other predictions ?

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[NotCranky]

Late, I am with you on your opinion here “IMHO, I believe the price declines will be QUICKER and DEEPER, than most think.” I am in San Diego. Who do you think is influencng the opinion of “most people” Indeed who are most people?
Let me do a little whistle blowing…
What do you think the post “soft landing” mantra is for Realtor’s?
I think it goes like this…

“Yes there are definitley some signs out there in the market of weakness,Its going to take a REAL LONG TIME, some areas will get hit harder than others, Inflation will mitigate a high mortgage some what. Interest rates are good and probably going to go up putting houses out of reach lending is drying up. The neighborhood you want looks pretty good you should be allright. Please be my next greatest fool.”

It classic and predictable.Dress that pig up all the way down.

Are “most people” Influenced by this?

[NotCranky]

Late, I am with you on your opinion here “IMHO, I believe the price declines will be QUICKER and DEEPER, than most think.” I am in San Diego. Who do you think is influencng the opinion of “most people” Indeed who are most people?
Let me do a little whistle blowing…
What do you think the post “soft landing” mantra is for Realtor’s?
I think it goes like this…

“Yes there are definitley some signs out there in the market of weakness,Its going to take a REAL LONG TIME, some areas will get hit harder than others, Inflation will mitigate a high mortgage some what. Interest rates are good and probably going to go up putting houses out of reach lending is drying up. The neighborhood you want looks pretty good you should be allright. Please be my next greatest fool.”

It classic and predictable.Dress that pig up all the way down.

Are “most people” Influenced by this?

[Bugs]

It’s bad, but you ain’t seen nothing yet.

Sit back, pop open a cold one and relax, because (IMO) it won’t get REALLY interesting til the end of the 3rd qtr 2007, possibly the beginning of 2008.

By then:

The last of the exotic financing programs should be officially declared extinct, and

The current batch of foreclosures will be listed for resale, and

The majority of the residential construction that’s going to get done will be done, thereby putting those people out of work to much ballyhoo, and

The YTD statistics for volumes and pricing will make apparent to everyone that 2007 is going down worse than 2006; and more importantly, it will become clear that this is not a temporary blip and things aren’t going to get better in 2008.

[Bugs]

It’s bad, but you ain’t seen nothing yet.

Sit back, pop open a cold one and relax, because (IMO) it won’t get REALLY interesting til the end of the 3rd qtr 2007, possibly the beginning of 2008.

By then:

The last of the exotic financing programs should be officially declared extinct, and

The current batch of foreclosures will be listed for resale, and

The majority of the residential construction that’s going to get done will be done, thereby putting those people out of work to much ballyhoo, and

The YTD statistics for volumes and pricing will make apparent to everyone that 2007 is going down worse than 2006; and more importantly, it will become clear that this is not a temporary blip and things aren’t going to get better in 2008.

[latesummer2008]

Late Summer 2008 is my prediction for the first buying opportunity on the WESTSIDE of LOS ANGELES. I will stick by that prediction. IMHO, I believe the price declines will be QUICKER and DEEPER, than most think.

Why ?

1)Market peaked in Late Summer 2005 (3 years time)
2)Once panic sets in it will be a BLOODBATH.
3)We will drag along the bottom for 2-3 MORE years (2011)
4)Late Summer 2008 will be the WORST of WORST, before bottom fishers start nibbling.
5)Different areas may start earlier or later, depending when their market peaked.

Any other predictions ?

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[NotCranky]

4plex,
Thanks I have tackled some difficult books on other subject matter. I guess I have half a brain for almost any topic. Is that a good enough starting point for this Recommendation of yours?

[barnaby33]

I haven’t read the actual book yet and probably need to, but a central banking system is not a criminal organization and to say so makes you sound like a loon.

There are pros and cons to any standard of currency and its control. Why is it that every time someone starts talking about our central banks or others the conversation takes on a tone, at least for me, of a coming tirade against a global jewish conspiracy to control the planet?

Gold standards aren’t great either. If private banks didn’t control the currency system the govt would. Do you want our congress in charge of how much money gets printed? Holy crap talk about politicizing our money supply.

Josh

[NotCranky]

JWM:
The apprecitaion although long term happend to a large degree in big chunks.I think we are getting ready to take a big chunk off. Prices have held for a few months because sellers believe they would get a price equal or better than recent but pre-spring comps. We all know spring did not work out too well.There is latent downside tension because of this. Also people are going to realize that Foreclosure activity is not a good sign.
Wait until we here the story….”I bought this forclosure and now I am upside down and being kicked out of my house.”
That ought to do it for another chunk.

I don’t get the The “deeper” part of “FASTER AND DEEPER” I agree with Rich and others that the bottom will be at some kind of support fundamentals that are relatively normal unless we have a depression and then they will kind of be abnormal.I don’t think we are even close but I haven’t got any kind of a picture of what that is going to look like. I think if we are still here on the blog, collectively we will be able to put it together at the time. I don’t think in real estate it is as hard to time the tops and bottoms as other financial markets. You pay for the predictability with illiquidity.

[JWM in SD]

Deeper meaning that reversion to the mean will cause an overshoot when the worst of this is realized by the public at large. As much as I like Rich, I don’t agree with everything he thinks. I’ve moved beyond the housing price symptoms and into the economic causes and I think things are going to get a lot uglier than even the bears realize. Too many people on this site have a very “micro” view of what’s happening right now. The real estate bubble is not local, it’s national. It’s just that areas like San Diego have seen the most extreme effects of it due to the desireability of the location. It’s always been expensive relative to other parts of the country and therefore suffers more from extremes in lending practices and economics. The internet was not present in the last bust. There was major information asymmetry (spelling?). Things are much different now.

[PerryChase]

I agree with JWM. We ain’t seen nothin’ yet!

[Raybyrnes]

Are there any feelings as to the impact Democrate or Republicans might have with respect to handling a shousing downturn. During the 80’s it was Reagan who did the dirty doublecross to land homeowners. I would think that Republican will do everything they can to keep the economy going so that they can campaign on this. Homeownership up and 401k’s booming. No need to think about the soldiers in Iraq.

Additionally you are still seeing cheap money. http://www.calhfa.ca.gov. 40 year,fixed rate, 10year IO loans, 3% down, at 6%. Seem like there are already sign of the Governemtn stepping in tohelp out. People thought on whether the governemtn might just prolong this long.

[Raybyrnes]

Are there any feelings as to the impact Democrate or Republicans might have with respect to handling a shousing downturn. During the 80’s it was Reagan who did the dirty doublecross to land homeowners. I would think that Republican will do everything they can to keep the economy going so that they can campaign on this. Homeownership up and 401k’s booming. No need to think about the soldiers in Iraq.

Additionally you are still seeing cheap money. http://www.calhfa.ca.gov. 40 year,fixed rate, 10year IO loans, 3% down, at 6%. Seem like there are already sign of the Governemtn stepping in tohelp out. People thought on whether the governemtn might just prolong this long.

[latesummer2008]

You Ain’t Seen Nothin Yet. Ba-Ba-Ba-Ba-Baby, cause you aint seen nothin yet. Just like BTO (Bachman Turner Overdrive) used to say.

Areas with the greatest appreciation, WILL have the greatest depreciation. If you look at the last RE Bust in 89-91, this is exactly what happened. And, markets DO tend to overshoot more on the DOWNSIDE.. Panic is a stronger force than Greed. People may HAVE TO SELL, but they DON’T HAVE TO BUY.

We are are just getting started. It’s going to be brutal.
Start posting those declines in your neighborhood, using Zillow.

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[latesummer2008]

You Ain’t Seen Nothin Yet. Ba-Ba-Ba-Ba-Baby, cause you aint seen nothin yet. Just like BTO (Bachman Turner Overdrive) used to say.

Areas with the greatest appreciation, WILL have the greatest depreciation. If you look at the last RE Bust in 89-91, this is exactly what happened. And, markets DO tend to overshoot more on the DOWNSIDE.. Panic is a stronger force than Greed. People may HAVE TO SELL, but they DON’T HAVE TO BUY.

We are are just getting started. It’s going to be brutal.
Start posting those declines in your neighborhood, using Zillow.

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[PerryChase]

I agree with JWM. We ain’t seen nothin’ yet!

[JWM in SD]

Deeper meaning that reversion to the mean will cause an overshoot when the worst of this is realized by the public at large. As much as I like Rich, I don’t agree with everything he thinks. I’ve moved beyond the housing price symptoms and into the economic causes and I think things are going to get a lot uglier than even the bears realize. Too many people on this site have a very “micro” view of what’s happening right now. The real estate bubble is not local, it’s national. It’s just that areas like San Diego have seen the most extreme effects of it due to the desireability of the location. It’s always been expensive relative to other parts of the country and therefore suffers more from extremes in lending practices and economics. The internet was not present in the last bust. There was major information asymmetry (spelling?). Things are much different now.

[NotCranky]

JWM:
The apprecitaion although long term happend to a large degree in big chunks.I think we are getting ready to take a big chunk off. Prices have held for a few months because sellers believe they would get a price equal or better than recent but pre-spring comps. We all know spring did not work out too well.There is latent downside tension because of this. Also people are going to realize that Foreclosure activity is not a good sign.
Wait until we here the story….”I bought this forclosure and now I am upside down and being kicked out of my house.”
That ought to do it for another chunk.

I don’t get the The “deeper” part of “FASTER AND DEEPER” I agree with Rich and others that the bottom will be at some kind of support fundamentals that are relatively normal unless we have a depression and then they will kind of be abnormal.I don’t think we are even close but I haven’t got any kind of a picture of what that is going to look like. I think if we are still here on the blog, collectively we will be able to put it together at the time. I don’t think in real estate it is as hard to time the tops and bottoms as other financial markets. You pay for the predictability with illiquidity.

[4plexowner]

usury: an unconscionable or exorbitant rate or amount of interest; interest in excess of a legal rate charged to a borrower for the use of money

The Fed’s cost of money is essentially zero so ANY interest charged is usurious (are you aware that We The People are paying interest to a private corporation for something they created out of thin air? and you don’t think that is criminal?)

The Federal Reserve violates the US Constitution which states that only the United States government has the power to create money

The US Constitution says “No State shall … make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts”

The Constitution has never been amended to allow either the Federal Reserve or a non-silver/gold currency

~

I agree that silver/gold standards are not ideal

It may be however that a silver/gold standard is the best that we can hope for – our founding fathers obviously thought so and they were students of history

[4plexowner]

usury: an unconscionable or exorbitant rate or amount of interest; interest in excess of a legal rate charged to a borrower for the use of money

The Fed’s cost of money is essentially zero so ANY interest charged is usurious (are you aware that We The People are paying interest to a private corporation for something they created out of thin air? and you don’t think that is criminal?)

The Federal Reserve violates the US Constitution which states that only the United States government has the power to create money

The US Constitution says “No State shall … make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts”

The Constitution has never been amended to allow either the Federal Reserve or a non-silver/gold currency

~

I agree that silver/gold standards are not ideal

It may be however that a silver/gold standard is the best that we can hope for – our founding fathers obviously thought so and they were students of history

[barnaby33]

I haven’t read the actual book yet and probably need to, but a central banking system is not a criminal organization and to say so makes you sound like a loon.

There are pros and cons to any standard of currency and its control. Why is it that every time someone starts talking about our central banks or others the conversation takes on a tone, at least for me, of a coming tirade against a global jewish conspiracy to control the planet?

Gold standards aren’t great either. If private banks didn’t control the currency system the govt would. Do you want our congress in charge of how much money gets printed? Holy crap talk about politicizing our money supply.

Josh

[4plexowner]

Rustico – read “Creature from Jekyll Island: A Second Look at the Federal Reserve”, by G. Edward Griffin

This book should be required reading for all Americans and is definitely required reading for anyone who wants to understand how our economy works

Don’t be intimidated by the size of this book – each chapter and section has an overview and summary – the author offers a quick reading guide that allows the reader to get an overview of this book in a few hours of reading

We need to get enough Americans to understand how the economy works so we can do something about it (abolish the Federal Reserve) – right now, most Americans think the Federal Reserve is part of the government and that the Federal Reserve has the best interests of Americans at heart – reality is that the Federal Reserve is a criminal organization that was legalized in 1913 by hood-winking the Congress

Read this book if you are really interested in understanding how our economy works

[patb]

What is the difference between a recession a depression and aramageddon?

===

Easy

Recession when your neighbor loses his job.
Depression, when you lose your job.
Armageddon, When everyone on the block is unemployed.

BTW minority unemployment is often 40%

[patb]

What is the difference between a recession a depression and aramageddon?

===

Easy

Recession when your neighbor loses his job.
Depression, when you lose your job.
Armageddon, When everyone on the block is unemployed.

BTW minority unemployment is often 40%

[NotCranky]

Today my wife and I were discussing goals..I wonder to myself. Why did we end up on this topic…. What is the difference between a recession a depression and aramageddon? LOL. My ignorance at this point is not comforting!Time to get a good book or start talking with some really old people I guess.

Thanks for your work latesummer.
Does the late summer 08 imply that you are forcasting to buy then or that it is when you think the macaroni hits the fan?

[4plexowner]

Rumor has it that IBM is about to announce layoffs of 150,000 people in the US

The recent purchase of Chrysler is likely to result in significant layoffs

George Ure at http://www.urbansurvival.com is expecting the public’s awareness of unemployment to jump significantly this summer and fall

Negative sentiment / worry over the job situation in this country is not going to help the housing market

[sdrealtor]

Fall will cool off more but that is a seasonal thing that happens each year so the real question will be YOY comparisons. I expect what I have for the last 6 months. Stable to slightly decreasing prices through Spring, accelerating price declines in Fall/Winter (about 5% which is about $25,000 to $50,000 per year), lather, rinse, repeat.

I’d love to see it all happen quickly in a year or two as it would be far less painful. But I just dont see things that way, I see a long painful decline ahead continuing for at least 3 more years.

[PD]

I think the declines are going to be faster and deeper than they have been. It is getting harder for people to get loans, which is the only thing that is going to slow down the GFs still buying (or force them to pay less).

[JWM in SD]

It will happen faster & deeper because of the internet. Look at the attention these housing blogs are getting. Lanser at OC Register reached out to Ben Jones over a year ago. Anyone looked the RE Section at the OC Register site lately? Its all bad news all the time. He knew it was coming and that it was not just a bunch of bitter renters bitching about being priced out. The MSM is not going to let this go. They will latch onto it like a pit bull. Other MSM will follow the OC Register example as things become more obvious and J6Pack will begin to finally figure out what is going on…albeit 2 years too late.

[latesummer2008]

Appraisal Problems R Next… As prices begin dropping, banks are going to want more money down. THEY KNOW houses are not worth the “Negotiated Value”. 25% down will become the new norm for CLOSING transactions. If price declines become swifter, the amount put down or interest rate will increase. Banks will have there hands full of properties and don’t want anymore.

This is the tip of the iceberg, ladies and gentleman…

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[latesummer2008]

Appraisal Problems R Next… As prices begin dropping, banks are going to want more money down. THEY KNOW houses are not worth the “Negotiated Value”. 25% down will become the new norm for CLOSING transactions. If price declines become swifter, the amount put down or interest rate will increase. Banks will have there hands full of properties and don’t want anymore.

This is the tip of the iceberg, ladies and gentleman…

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[NotCranky]

dupe

[latesummer2008]

40 – 50% off Peak Prices. That’s what I see when all is said and done. This market gets uglier and uglier and we have barely scratched the surface yet. Don’t people realize we have had the biggest increase in appreciation since the Great Depression? And, guess who initiated it all? BANKS. Sound familiar? Denial is finally being replaced by REALITY. Prices HAVE to DECLINE MUCH MORE in order to be affordable. Speculation has ended and their will be very few people playing the “Housing Game” anymore.

This summer will be BAD.

Next summer will be WORSE.

Get ready…

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[latesummer2008]

40 – 50% off Peak Prices. That’s what I see when all is said and done. This market gets uglier and uglier and we have barely scratched the surface yet. Don’t people realize we have had the biggest increase in appreciation since the Great Depression? And, guess who initiated it all? BANKS. Sound familiar? Denial is finally being replaced by REALITY. Prices HAVE to DECLINE MUCH MORE in order to be affordable. Speculation has ended and their will be very few people playing the “Housing Game” anymore.

This summer will be BAD.

Next summer will be WORSE.

Get ready…

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[NotCranky]

dupe

[NotCranky]

The huge appreciation although it occurred over a long period of time, moved in large chunks over relatively short period of time. I guesstimate we are about to see a large chunk removed.Prices have some what stabilized due to seller’s beliefs that it is spring so there is no need to worry.But as we all know not too much moved ,that creates tension. People are going to realize pretty soon that foreclosure activity doesn’t reflect anything like the bottom and that it is in fact a very bad sign for the market.

Wait until we hear the story. “I just bought a foreclosure and now I am upside down and geting kicked out of my house.”
That ought to do it!

As far as the Deeper goes in the “faster and deeper” I don’t get that unless you are predicting a depression? it will go as deep as it takes to find support and then maybe, as some people have said swing a little past briefly.

[latesummer2008]

Time to List Price Declines. Perhaps, if we all start listing price drops, than others will see what is happening. It shouldn’t be too difficult over the next few months.

I have figured a way to easily value both the land and the house, then assign them a numerical value relating to price.

Check it out here:

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[DaCounselor]

“Time to List Price Declines. Perhaps, if we all start listing price drops, than others will see what is happening. It shouldn’t be too difficult over the next few months.

I have figured a way to easily value both the land and the house, then assign them a numerical value relating to price.

Check it out here:

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com”
____________________________

I don’t know about your area, but vast swaths of San Diego are covered in tract home developments, townhomes and condos. With respect to these neighborhoods, simply plotting the sales prices of like models/floorplans/etc. should tell the story. I would imagine that anyone who has identified particular communities they are interested in would be following the sales figures very closely. I’m actually surprised to not see more posts here that simply lay out the history of sales prices for like models/floorplans/etc. Folks can chrystal-ball gaze until their eyes fall out of their heads, but there is no arguing what the sales numbers show.

[latesummer2008]

Start Local Posts of Price Declines in specific neighborhoods. These blogs are getting more and more popular as they are not influenced by the RE Industry. It’s the straight poop. Hopefully buyers can do their own research now, instead of relying on BAD DATA.

The RE Industry is changing now, with ACCESS to INFORMATION via the INTERNET. Just like every other industry. Sorry, Brokers, Agents and Banks, it’s time to adapt, or you are in danger of extinction.

“Natural Selection”

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[NotCranky]

Late,
Although We do both agree that we are primates evidently I don’t think I will be going extinct any time soon!
The RE Industry is changing now, with ACCESS to INFORMATION via the INTERNET. Just like every other industry. This is true. However, The INTERNET is more of and aid to me, an agent than a threat to my survival. Don’t underestimate how complicated this job is because you saw so many unsophisticated individuals out pimping houses to thoughtless acentionists in a boom.
You can learn to repair a car bumber to bumper on the net but how many people are going to do it? There is more to it than meets the eye. I will explain more if you want. I recommend you think about getting a license like I have done to others. You might be are the right kind to do your own business but many people aren’t or are not interested in spending the time and they need an honest advocate and an advisor. Most of the time for better or for worse that is a REALTOR in California and will continue to be.

Best wishes,

[latesummer2008]

Rustico,

I have been a Licensed Real Estate Broker and Appraiser for 20 YEARS. I understand what it takes to list, market, sell AND appraise property. I choose not to make a living in the RE Industry because, most of the people working in it, are SLIME. All you have to do is look at the mess we are in now. I realize there are some good agents out there, most are not. And yes, SOME people need the services of a GOOD agent. MANY people don’t need the services of the average agent anymore. INFORMATION is more accessible to the public and not just in the hands of the RE Industry.

However, we don’t need to debate this point.

What we need to talk about, is price declines…

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[JWM in SD]

Latesummer I have to say, I commend you on bringing the “bear” back to this site. For a while there, most of the posters were turning into a bunch of handwringers and psuedo permabulls. However, I have to ask, why do you seem to post here at piggington more often than you do at your own site??

I also didn’t realize that you were part of the REIC until I saw that last post from you. That’s very interesting…an insider who is overtly bullish. That is different than what I’m used to seeing here. Usually you have the two SD Realtors posting here but always speaking out of both sides of their mouth(s)….for obvious reasons I suppose.

What lead you to become so bearish when your peers are still trying to float the RE cliches and myths regardless o f how pathetic and transparent it is at this point?

[latesummer2008]

I don’t have a vested interest in RE. And I am a scientist at heart. I enjoy analyzing data and forming conclusions. Mix that with my RE background and this is what you get. I realize these boards are populated by realtors for obvious reasons. My aim is not to bash them, but STATE THE FACTS about what is really going on in RE.
My other site is more informational and not as populated as this one YET. I would think as we go forward, and prices decline more, it will be. I have devised a formula to value properties in a declining market. As that becomes more evident, I think people will become more interested. My hope is that each specific area will have others begin posting price declines as they come in. It is quite easy on Zillow.

Lies and deceit is why I left the industry professionally in the first place. I could’nt stand working with lying salespeople, hawking families up to their eyeballs in debt, even when THEY KNEW it was a bad investment. (You don’t want to know what I really think..)
RE is much more interesting when you don’t have to sell it for a living. Just tell it like it is….and try to HELP people.

If your curious about the Westside of LA, check out my website :

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

I add recent price declines every week for specific areas on the Westside.

[JWM in SD]

Sorry, but I’m a working stiff. The westside of LA is something I’ll probably never contemplate as home…unless we really overshoot the mean.

I do want to know what you really think. I’m curious to se if it differs from my own perceptions of what the LOs and the rest of the greedy bastards were really doing.

[NotCranky]

jwm & Latesummer,

Your bearishness doesn’t bother me at all. I can find you a residential property that sold for 440k in 2005 that is now listed for 312k and I could probably have for 275k or less today. I don’t feel comfortable dragging MLS data over here. I think it will go to 200k a buyer or two from now. I think it is quite possible this scenario is going to become common place. I am trying to get at where you two think the bottom will be in terms that we piggingtonians can actually have a discussion about?
I think we actually had two bubbles, one caused by the strength of the economy in the second half of the 90’s and early 2000’s which drove the market until the funny money came in about 2002 and proceeded to get crazier. Thats why I tend to agree with you both about the macaroni really hitting the fan. Perhaps time has mitigated half or the first bubble and none of the second. I think we have 1 1/2 bubbles from peak or 2001-2002 prices at worst case scenario unless we are going into a depression, which I really don’t see as long as the US is the world’s superpower.That said I think a BIG WAR is a slim possibilty and all bets would be off for that too. That is about as scientific as I care to get. I am not really putting my pride on the line though with these predictions.I’ll start buying when it makes sense compared to other opportunities and I get a beter feel for the strength of the recession at hand.
Again what do you “super bears” think will stop the market from falling regardless of where that is?

[NotCranky]

jwm & Latesummer,

Your bearishness doesn’t bother me at all. I can find you a residential property that sold for 440k in 2005 that is now listed for 312k and I could probably have for 275k or less today. I don’t feel comfortable dragging MLS data over here. I think it will go to 200k a buyer or two from now. I think it is quite possible this scenario is going to become common place. I am trying to get at where you two think the bottom will be in terms that we piggingtonians can actually have a discussion about?
I think we actually had two bubbles, one caused by the strength of the economy in the second half of the 90’s and early 2000’s which drove the market until the funny money came in about 2002 and proceeded to get crazier. Thats why I tend to agree with you both about the macaroni really hitting the fan. Perhaps time has mitigated half or the first bubble and none of the second. I think we have 1 1/2 bubbles from peak or 2001-2002 prices at worst case scenario unless we are going into a depression, which I really don’t see as long as the US is the world’s superpower.That said I think a BIG WAR is a slim possibilty and all bets would be off for that too. That is about as scientific as I care to get. I am not really putting my pride on the line though with these predictions.I’ll start buying when it makes sense compared to other opportunities and I get a beter feel for the strength of the recession at hand.
Again what do you “super bears” think will stop the market from falling regardless of where that is?

[JWM in SD]

Sorry, but I’m a working stiff. The westside of LA is something I’ll probably never contemplate as home…unless we really overshoot the mean.

I do want to know what you really think. I’m curious to se if it differs from my own perceptions of what the LOs and the rest of the greedy bastards were really doing.

[latesummer2008]

I don’t have a vested interest in RE. And I am a scientist at heart. I enjoy analyzing data and forming conclusions. Mix that with my RE background and this is what you get. I realize these boards are populated by realtors for obvious reasons. My aim is not to bash them, but STATE THE FACTS about what is really going on in RE.
My other site is more informational and not as populated as this one YET. I would think as we go forward, and prices decline more, it will be. I have devised a formula to value properties in a declining market. As that becomes more evident, I think people will become more interested. My hope is that each specific area will have others begin posting price declines as they come in. It is quite easy on Zillow.

Lies and deceit is why I left the industry professionally in the first place. I could’nt stand working with lying salespeople, hawking families up to their eyeballs in debt, even when THEY KNEW it was a bad investment. (You don’t want to know what I really think..)
RE is much more interesting when you don’t have to sell it for a living. Just tell it like it is….and try to HELP people.

If your curious about the Westside of LA, check out my website :

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

I add recent price declines every week for specific areas on the Westside.

[SD Realtor]

So JWM when did i ever say that I didn’t think the market wasn’t going down. Please point me to that post.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

For that matter, I don’t think I ever heard sdr who I frequently argue with ever state that he thought the market wasn’t going down either.

SD Realtor

[JWM in SD]

SD Realtor, the market going down is not what I take issue with. It’s telling the newbies who come that it’s okay to buy a house if they can afford it now and plan on staying for a long time. Ordinarily, that would be reasonable advice. Now, it isn’t. There are some bad economic events on the horizon. This housing bubble wasn’t natural like the one in the early nineties. It was driven by macroeconomic issues with credit liquidity. Those issues are coming to head as we speak. Purchasing overpriced illiquid assets of anykind right now is not a good idea. Specifically bubble area real estate.

[SD Realtor]

JWM what I consistently say is that if the decision is purely one of economics then it is 100% of a no brainer to not purchase the house. However to not say that there are other factors to consider when purchasing a home is a fallacy. I am not arguing the fact that the market will not depreciate. As I said, I do believe some areas/types of homes will get hit harder then others. What is clearly evident is that there are some people who are going to buy knowing full well of what is happening. No matter how much it grates against most people who post here, there are people who want to buy now and will buy now knowing that the market will depreciate. Evidently you don’t like that but you don’t deal with these people, I do as do other Realtors. I just got back from an appt in Escondido. This guy is selling his home and just inherited enough money to buy a home for cash in RB as he wants to get in the Poway school district. He is an engineer, and he fully understands the market dynamics. He is not postponing his purchase even though he knows what is happening. It is what he wants, and what his wife wants and it is contrary to economic wisdom. He is doing it regardless.

So if you want to call it talking out both side of my mouth, which is EXACTLY what you did call it, then fine. Talk to my buyers who just bought a home in Sabre Springs, or some other buyers of mine who bought a place up in sdr’s neighborhood off of Olivenhain. In all those cases I pointed out to them that the market is depreciating and they would get better deals in the next few years. They didn’t WANT to wait. They can afford the homes, they are buying them long term, and they don’t plan to move soon. They aren’t doing what you would do or what alot of other people who would post here do. They know I rent, they know I have advised them to hold off.

I absolutely agree with you about this bubble, the causes of it, and the declines. My postings about why it may be okay to buy are always based on the same thing, if you can afford it, if you will be owning it for a long time, and if you really love it. I don’t use the tired argument about tax breaks, I always acknowledge there will be a decline.

SD Realtor

[sdrealtor]

Ditto except I own and will never sell my house……NEVER

[sdrealtor]

Ditto except I own and will never sell my house……NEVER

[lonestar2000]

We’re currently renting (well, we own a small mobile home but rent the space) and we’re looking to buy a house, but they’re still overpriced for what we want, and can afford. Like many, we’re eagerly awaiting the day when house prices are back to fundamentals so we can move up without selling our souls to do it.

I think SD Realtor has the right balance and honesty in how he regards his profession in the current declining market. If I was looking for a home in SD I’d give him a call, but we’re about 120 miles North of there.

Anyhow, don’t be so quick to judge, I’ve found his comments to be well founded and realistic.

I too agree, that if you found the place you want, can afford it, and plan to stay, then buy it now. It’s a home, not an investment after all.

But, for many such as myself, there’s no choice but to wait, as we can’t afford the current prices.

What ever makes sense for your situation is what you should do. And I think most everyone here has realized by now, that the market is in for a long decline. It is the bottom that is going to be hard to judge. But, then again, once the house you want is affordable and within your reach, it really does not matter if it has reached the bottom or not, now does it?

[latesummer2008]

Enough Realtor Bashing… Lets get back to what’s important. Any further information about the RE Market? LA Times came out yesterday with LA County prices. The BIGGEST LOSERS were the HIGHER END markets of BEVERLY HILLS, BEL AIR, VENICE, SANTA MONICA and PACIFIC PALISADES. Not a good sign.

You can check out the results here, if you wish:

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[JWM in SD]

LS, with all due respect, why are posting about West LA on a San Diego board??? Nobody here is interested in Beverly Hills. I like your style, but I’m not sure why you’re posting here.

[little lady]

“LS, with all due respect, why are posting about West LA on a San Diego board??? Nobody here is interested in Beverly Hills. I like your style, but I’m not sure why you’re posting here.”

It’s socal, its all relative……….

[JJGittes]

Heck, I couldn’t care less about Chula Vista. (Hel)L-A the same.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

All the attention to North County (especially inland) bores me. I’d rather see more about central coastal SD. In fact
I’d rather hear about LA’s Westside than all the minute details regarding Carmel Valley. But that’s just me.

I think all these areas are interconnected to some extent, so what’s wrong with hearing about all the so cal areas (even though some might be boring to you and me).

[sdrealtor]

FSD
I put a focus on NCC because that is where I live and work. Understandably the world does not revlove around it. As all markets are very local, it would be nice to seem some other RE folks step up and provide the group an ongoing thread on what is happening in their home area. I’d love to learn about them also as invariably we are all interconnected to some extent. Not to say that anyone is providing data that will be the end all it would be interesting to see how things progress across different parts of SD. How bout it?

SDR-Scripps, PQ
Rustico-San Carlos is all you have mentioned
ANyone else…….?

[drunkle]

i’d love to hear about markets all over; alaska, hawaii, michigan, co, az, nm…

if the information became so prolific and widespread, if more people were reporting on it and more people were reading about it…

[PerryChase]

Me too. I’d to hear about other markets, national or international. Are people incurring major losses in London?

A friend of mine “invested” in a Houston condo, on the advise of some co-workers. He said that he’s about $30/month cash flow positive after everything. Is it even worth the effort in terms of opportunity cost of down-payment, headache and aggravation, potential loss, travel expenses, etc…?

[NotCranky]

Perry,
I wrote out a long reply to you and dropped it.
In short your friend is probably on the right track. Hopefully it is a quality, relatively new building and he has a fixed loan. If so, it is a good starting point. Somebody else is building his nest egg and the cash flow will get better over time. If he does this well over time with more properties and the US Economy is relatively normal(including recessions and bubbles) for the next few decades he will make huge gains in equity and cash flow. I prefer SFR. Multi family has more potential but one has to start somewhere.

Next:
There is much more talk about International and out of area markets on the “Ben Jones Housing bubble blog”…WARNING wear a virtual hard hat in that zone!

[latesummer2008]

Macro Economics is more important than just your local market. Our country is being affected nationwide by the current mortgage mess. This will inturn affect ALL of the local markets. Some worse than others. Like So.Cal for example. Markets that appreciated the most will drop the most. It’s just plain common sense.

Also, The global market is watching what happens in the U.S. Yes, you could say “ALL EYES are on SAN DIEGO” as it lead the market up and is now leading the market down.

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[PD]

I just received a Coronado Lifestyle magazine with a damage control article prominently placed in it.

“The New Reality in Real Estate: We’re Getting Back to Normal (PS Normal in Coronado is Pretty Darn Great.)”

Welcome back to normal, say California economists and Coronado Realtors. Say, what did normal look like anyway? And what lies ahead? Let’s catch our breath, and check in with the facts and the future. The good news is that Coronado prices are adjusting: a bubble is not bursting. And 2006 figures support that – while real estate prices fell overall throughout San Diego County, there were three notable exceptions: La Jolla, Rancho Santa Fe and Coronado, where prices in the land of Oz rose six percent in 2006 over the previous year to a median of $1,299,000.

Whew, so “adjusting” must mean prices are going up. But if they were going up, why is there need for an article telling people to calm down? The fact is that prices have come down in Coronado. Some properties may still be selling at peak prices but a lot of properties are selling 10% off peak here. The whole thing was 7 pages of happy talk. It is different here, folks.

[latesummer2008]

Median Price doesn’t mean Jack! Why don’t they tell you about the :

1) Number of Sales
2) Sales Volume
3) Price per Square Foot
4) Bloated Inventory

Because, that is the real story. Just Realtor spin trying desperately to give some life, to a dying market. Sure, some houses in decent areas that are clean and PRICED RIGHT are selling. Everything else (80%+ of the inventory), is just sitting there, losing value every day.

La Jolla, Coronado and Rancho Santa Fe will be hit the hardest, when all is said and done. Nobody in their right mind, is going to pay big dollars, in this type of market, for overpriced property.

Mark my words : “The pricier they are, the harder they fall”

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[latesummer2008]

San Diego Co. May Prices will be reported in the LA TIMES soon. We’ll see if they follow the Higher End Area Declines we just witnessed, in Orange County.

Getting more interesting all the time…

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[latesummer2008]

San Diego Co. May Prices will be reported in the LA TIMES soon. We’ll see if they follow the Higher End Area Declines we just witnessed, in Orange County.

Getting more interesting all the time…

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[latesummer2008]

Median Price doesn’t mean Jack! Why don’t they tell you about the :

1) Number of Sales
2) Sales Volume
3) Price per Square Foot
4) Bloated Inventory

Because, that is the real story. Just Realtor spin trying desperately to give some life, to a dying market. Sure, some houses in decent areas that are clean and PRICED RIGHT are selling. Everything else (80%+ of the inventory), is just sitting there, losing value every day.

La Jolla, Coronado and Rancho Santa Fe will be hit the hardest, when all is said and done. Nobody in their right mind, is going to pay big dollars, in this type of market, for overpriced property.

Mark my words : “The pricier they are, the harder they fall”

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[PD]

I just received a Coronado Lifestyle magazine with a damage control article prominently placed in it.

“The New Reality in Real Estate: We’re Getting Back to Normal (PS Normal in Coronado is Pretty Darn Great.)”

Welcome back to normal, say California economists and Coronado Realtors. Say, what did normal look like anyway? And what lies ahead? Let’s catch our breath, and check in with the facts and the future. The good news is that Coronado prices are adjusting: a bubble is not bursting. And 2006 figures support that – while real estate prices fell overall throughout San Diego County, there were three notable exceptions: La Jolla, Rancho Santa Fe and Coronado, where prices in the land of Oz rose six percent in 2006 over the previous year to a median of $1,299,000.

Whew, so “adjusting” must mean prices are going up. But if they were going up, why is there need for an article telling people to calm down? The fact is that prices have come down in Coronado. Some properties may still be selling at peak prices but a lot of properties are selling 10% off peak here. The whole thing was 7 pages of happy talk. It is different here, folks.

[latesummer2008]

Macro Economics is more important than just your local market. Our country is being affected nationwide by the current mortgage mess. This will inturn affect ALL of the local markets. Some worse than others. Like So.Cal for example. Markets that appreciated the most will drop the most. It’s just plain common sense.

Also, The global market is watching what happens in the U.S. Yes, you could say “ALL EYES are on SAN DIEGO” as it lead the market up and is now leading the market down.

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[NotCranky]

Perry,
I wrote out a long reply to you and dropped it.
In short your friend is probably on the right track. Hopefully it is a quality, relatively new building and he has a fixed loan. If so, it is a good starting point. Somebody else is building his nest egg and the cash flow will get better over time. If he does this well over time with more properties and the US Economy is relatively normal(including recessions and bubbles) for the next few decades he will make huge gains in equity and cash flow. I prefer SFR. Multi family has more potential but one has to start somewhere.

Next:
There is much more talk about International and out of area markets on the “Ben Jones Housing bubble blog”…WARNING wear a virtual hard hat in that zone!

[PerryChase]

Me too. I’d to hear about other markets, national or international. Are people incurring major losses in London?

A friend of mine “invested” in a Houston condo, on the advise of some co-workers. He said that he’s about $30/month cash flow positive after everything. Is it even worth the effort in terms of opportunity cost of down-payment, headache and aggravation, potential loss, travel expenses, etc…?

[drunkle]

i’d love to hear about markets all over; alaska, hawaii, michigan, co, az, nm…

if the information became so prolific and widespread, if more people were reporting on it and more people were reading about it…

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

sdr – I agree that it would be nice to have the same level as info you provide for all areas of the County. Thanks for providing it for your sub-market.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

sdr – I agree that it would be nice to have the same level as info you provide for all areas of the County. Thanks for providing it for your sub-market.

[latesummer2008]

All Higher End Areas in Southern California are relevant because it tells you what is happening in the overall Southern California Market. If Beverly Hills and Malibu are dropping than what do you think La Jolla and Del Mar are doing? You need to think about what the money at each market level is doing.

Plus, it seems like LA is following SD by about 6 – 9 months…

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[JWM in SD]

LateSummer,

Fair Enough. Just thought I’d ask the question. I’m sure that I’m no the only one who was curious about that.

[Anonymous]

To be clear, folks, the world revolves around La Jolla. Just ask anyone who lives here.

I feel sick, now.

[Anonymous]

To be clear, folks, the world revolves around La Jolla. Just ask anyone who lives here.

I feel sick, now.

[JWM in SD]

LateSummer,

Fair Enough. Just thought I’d ask the question. I’m sure that I’m no the only one who was curious about that.

[latesummer2008]

All Higher End Areas in Southern California are relevant because it tells you what is happening in the overall Southern California Market. If Beverly Hills and Malibu are dropping than what do you think La Jolla and Del Mar are doing? You need to think about what the money at each market level is doing.

Plus, it seems like LA is following SD by about 6 – 9 months…

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[sdrealtor]

FSD
I put a focus on NCC because that is where I live and work. Understandably the world does not revlove around it. As all markets are very local, it would be nice to seem some other RE folks step up and provide the group an ongoing thread on what is happening in their home area. I’d love to learn about them also as invariably we are all interconnected to some extent. Not to say that anyone is providing data that will be the end all it would be interesting to see how things progress across different parts of SD. How bout it?

SDR-Scripps, PQ
Rustico-San Carlos is all you have mentioned
ANyone else…….?

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

All the attention to North County (especially inland) bores me. I’d rather see more about central coastal SD. In fact
I’d rather hear about LA’s Westside than all the minute details regarding Carmel Valley. But that’s just me.

I think all these areas are interconnected to some extent, so what’s wrong with hearing about all the so cal areas (even though some might be boring to you and me).

[JJGittes]

Heck, I couldn’t care less about Chula Vista. (Hel)L-A the same.

[little lady]

“LS, with all due respect, why are posting about West LA on a San Diego board??? Nobody here is interested in Beverly Hills. I like your style, but I’m not sure why you’re posting here.”

It’s socal, its all relative……….

[JWM in SD]

LS, with all due respect, why are posting about West LA on a San Diego board??? Nobody here is interested in Beverly Hills. I like your style, but I’m not sure why you’re posting here.

[latesummer2008]

Enough Realtor Bashing… Lets get back to what’s important. Any further information about the RE Market? LA Times came out yesterday with LA County prices. The BIGGEST LOSERS were the HIGHER END markets of BEVERLY HILLS, BEL AIR, VENICE, SANTA MONICA and PACIFIC PALISADES. Not a good sign.

You can check out the results here, if you wish:

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[lonestar2000]

We’re currently renting (well, we own a small mobile home but rent the space) and we’re looking to buy a house, but they’re still overpriced for what we want, and can afford. Like many, we’re eagerly awaiting the day when house prices are back to fundamentals so we can move up without selling our souls to do it.

I think SD Realtor has the right balance and honesty in how he regards his profession in the current declining market. If I was looking for a home in SD I’d give him a call, but we’re about 120 miles North of there.

Anyhow, don’t be so quick to judge, I’ve found his comments to be well founded and realistic.

I too agree, that if you found the place you want, can afford it, and plan to stay, then buy it now. It’s a home, not an investment after all.

But, for many such as myself, there’s no choice but to wait, as we can’t afford the current prices.

What ever makes sense for your situation is what you should do. And I think most everyone here has realized by now, that the market is in for a long decline. It is the bottom that is going to be hard to judge. But, then again, once the house you want is affordable and within your reach, it really does not matter if it has reached the bottom or not, now does it?

[SD Realtor]

JWM what I consistently say is that if the decision is purely one of economics then it is 100% of a no brainer to not purchase the house. However to not say that there are other factors to consider when purchasing a home is a fallacy. I am not arguing the fact that the market will not depreciate. As I said, I do believe some areas/types of homes will get hit harder then others. What is clearly evident is that there are some people who are going to buy knowing full well of what is happening. No matter how much it grates against most people who post here, there are people who want to buy now and will buy now knowing that the market will depreciate. Evidently you don’t like that but you don’t deal with these people, I do as do other Realtors. I just got back from an appt in Escondido. This guy is selling his home and just inherited enough money to buy a home for cash in RB as he wants to get in the Poway school district. He is an engineer, and he fully understands the market dynamics. He is not postponing his purchase even though he knows what is happening. It is what he wants, and what his wife wants and it is contrary to economic wisdom. He is doing it regardless.

So if you want to call it talking out both side of my mouth, which is EXACTLY what you did call it, then fine. Talk to my buyers who just bought a home in Sabre Springs, or some other buyers of mine who bought a place up in sdr’s neighborhood off of Olivenhain. In all those cases I pointed out to them that the market is depreciating and they would get better deals in the next few years. They didn’t WANT to wait. They can afford the homes, they are buying them long term, and they don’t plan to move soon. They aren’t doing what you would do or what alot of other people who would post here do. They know I rent, they know I have advised them to hold off.

I absolutely agree with you about this bubble, the causes of it, and the declines. My postings about why it may be okay to buy are always based on the same thing, if you can afford it, if you will be owning it for a long time, and if you really love it. I don’t use the tired argument about tax breaks, I always acknowledge there will be a decline.

SD Realtor

[JWM in SD]

SD Realtor, the market going down is not what I take issue with. It’s telling the newbies who come that it’s okay to buy a house if they can afford it now and plan on staying for a long time. Ordinarily, that would be reasonable advice. Now, it isn’t. There are some bad economic events on the horizon. This housing bubble wasn’t natural like the one in the early nineties. It was driven by macroeconomic issues with credit liquidity. Those issues are coming to head as we speak. Purchasing overpriced illiquid assets of anykind right now is not a good idea. Specifically bubble area real estate.

[SD Realtor]

For that matter, I don’t think I ever heard sdr who I frequently argue with ever state that he thought the market wasn’t going down either.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

So JWM when did i ever say that I didn’t think the market wasn’t going down. Please point me to that post.

SD Realtor

[JWM in SD]

Latesummer I have to say, I commend you on bringing the “bear” back to this site. For a while there, most of the posters were turning into a bunch of handwringers and psuedo permabulls. However, I have to ask, why do you seem to post here at piggington more often than you do at your own site??

I also didn’t realize that you were part of the REIC until I saw that last post from you. That’s very interesting…an insider who is overtly bullish. That is different than what I’m used to seeing here. Usually you have the two SD Realtors posting here but always speaking out of both sides of their mouth(s)….for obvious reasons I suppose.

What lead you to become so bearish when your peers are still trying to float the RE cliches and myths regardless o f how pathetic and transparent it is at this point?

[latesummer2008]

Rustico,

I have been a Licensed Real Estate Broker and Appraiser for 20 YEARS. I understand what it takes to list, market, sell AND appraise property. I choose not to make a living in the RE Industry because, most of the people working in it, are SLIME. All you have to do is look at the mess we are in now. I realize there are some good agents out there, most are not. And yes, SOME people need the services of a GOOD agent. MANY people don’t need the services of the average agent anymore. INFORMATION is more accessible to the public and not just in the hands of the RE Industry.

However, we don’t need to debate this point.

What we need to talk about, is price declines…

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[NotCranky]

Late,
Although We do both agree that we are primates evidently I don’t think I will be going extinct any time soon!
The RE Industry is changing now, with ACCESS to INFORMATION via the INTERNET. Just like every other industry. This is true. However, The INTERNET is more of and aid to me, an agent than a threat to my survival. Don’t underestimate how complicated this job is because you saw so many unsophisticated individuals out pimping houses to thoughtless acentionists in a boom.
You can learn to repair a car bumber to bumper on the net but how many people are going to do it? There is more to it than meets the eye. I will explain more if you want. I recommend you think about getting a license like I have done to others. You might be are the right kind to do your own business but many people aren’t or are not interested in spending the time and they need an honest advocate and an advisor. Most of the time for better or for worse that is a REALTOR in California and will continue to be.

Best wishes,

[latesummer2008]

Start Local Posts of Price Declines in specific neighborhoods. These blogs are getting more and more popular as they are not influenced by the RE Industry. It’s the straight poop. Hopefully buyers can do their own research now, instead of relying on BAD DATA.

The RE Industry is changing now, with ACCESS to INFORMATION via the INTERNET. Just like every other industry. Sorry, Brokers, Agents and Banks, it’s time to adapt, or you are in danger of extinction.

“Natural Selection”

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[DaCounselor]

“Time to List Price Declines. Perhaps, if we all start listing price drops, than others will see what is happening. It shouldn’t be too difficult over the next few months.

I have figured a way to easily value both the land and the house, then assign them a numerical value relating to price.

Check it out here:

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com”
____________________________

I don’t know about your area, but vast swaths of San Diego are covered in tract home developments, townhomes and condos. With respect to these neighborhoods, simply plotting the sales prices of like models/floorplans/etc. should tell the story. I would imagine that anyone who has identified particular communities they are interested in would be following the sales figures very closely. I’m actually surprised to not see more posts here that simply lay out the history of sales prices for like models/floorplans/etc. Folks can chrystal-ball gaze until their eyes fall out of their heads, but there is no arguing what the sales numbers show.

[latesummer2008]

Time to List Price Declines. Perhaps, if we all start listing price drops, than others will see what is happening. It shouldn’t be too difficult over the next few months.

I have figured a way to easily value both the land and the house, then assign them a numerical value relating to price.

Check it out here:

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[latesummer2008]

Rustico,

After 1 year I decided to check the San Diego Market again. And as I had mentioned a year ago, the price trends were especially disturbing for San Diego in June of 2007. Many so called “Experts” on this board laughed. I guess they are not laughing now as parts of SD County are off over 50% in less than a year.

I guess “Late Summer 2008” wasn’t such a bad prediction after all. I noticed La Jolla got hit pretty hard last month. I believe that is a great leading indicator on what’s in store for the Westside of Los Angeles. Beverly Hills, Santa Monica, Malibu, Pacific Palisades, and Brentwood all just starting to feel it.

The coming Alt-A and Prime Mortgage Meltdown will continue to hammer the high-end areas next.

Caio’

http://www.westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[NotCranky]

http://piggington.com/slow_decline_or_is_a_big_chunk_about_to_be_ripped_out

You might want to read this thread or at least the start of it. Right after you quit posting it was started. You get mentioned by the OP.

[sdrealtor]

Its always fun revisitng old threads. Interestingly enough, while many parts of the county chunked down hard, prices along the coast are still eroding relatively slowly. Isnt fun when we all get to be right.

[latesummer2008]

Alt-A is the next big shoe to drop. Then, Prime. Real Estate Food chain is getting eaten from the bottom up. Pretty soon the top will begin bailing as price declines become more evident there too. Then we will have eating from the top and bottom. Classic collapse… Even the head of JP Morgan said “Prime looks terrible” the other day, noting a spike in defaults.

We need to look at trends for the future, not past results. It’s all about foreclosures. I’m afraid we are in unchartered territory.

[peterb]

Uncharted is right. Both Bruce Norris and Ward Hannigan, two very seasoned RE investors, have commented that this down cycle is unlike the last couple in many ways and far more severe in depth and speed. Foreclosures topped-out at about 700 a month in the 1990’s for SD county. They’re now approaching 2000 a month! And the full brunt of the recession has yet to hit.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I guess “Late Summer 2008” wasn’t such a bad prediction after all.

For your particular neighborhood (Santa Monica/Westside), I don’t think it will be anywhere close to the bottom within the next 8 weeks (late summer 2008).

However, my guess is that for portions of San Diego and Riverside county late Summer 2008 will be reasonably close to the bottom in pricing, within say 5-10%.

[kev374]

I believe the CME futures market is predicting a 20% decline from now through May 2009 for Los Angeles. My guess it will be more like 30% especially when low buying season hits and banks start cutting prices to unload their REO inventory before year end…thoughts?

[gdcox]

Be careful with these futures markets. The latest data for Q1 shows only 1428 contracts. That is 22 per day spread over all the contracts. For example, Los Angeles did not trade today. I bet the bid offer spread is very wide.

Doesn’t mean it is wrong, but it is far from the word of God on those volumes

[latesummer2008]

Late Summer of 08′ appears to be a good time to start nibbling around the edges in S.D. I am sure there are some deals to be had if you do your homework and find a motivated seller. As for L.A., Late Summer of 09′ and into early 2010 could be a time to buy Real Estate. Alt-A mortgages will have a huge effect. You can check out the price hits just starting to take significant drops below.

http://www.westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[latesummer2008]

Late Summer of 08′ appears to be a good time to start nibbling around the edges in S.D. I am sure there are some deals to be had if you do your homework and find a motivated seller. As for L.A., Late Summer of 09′ and into early 2010 could be a time to buy Real Estate. Alt-A mortgages will have a huge effect. You can check out the price hits just starting to take significant drops below.

http://www.westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[latesummer2008]

Late Summer of 08′ appears to be a good time to start nibbling around the edges in S.D. I am sure there are some deals to be had if you do your homework and find a motivated seller. As for L.A., Late Summer of 09′ and into early 2010 could be a time to buy Real Estate. Alt-A mortgages will have a huge effect. You can check out the price hits just starting to take significant drops below.

http://www.westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[latesummer2008]

Late Summer of 08′ appears to be a good time to start nibbling around the edges in S.D. I am sure there are some deals to be had if you do your homework and find a motivated seller. As for L.A., Late Summer of 09′ and into early 2010 could be a time to buy Real Estate. Alt-A mortgages will have a huge effect. You can check out the price hits just starting to take significant drops below.

http://www.westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[latesummer2008]

Late Summer of 08′ appears to be a good time to start nibbling around the edges in S.D. I am sure there are some deals to be had if you do your homework and find a motivated seller. As for L.A., Late Summer of 09′ and into early 2010 could be a time to buy Real Estate. Alt-A mortgages will have a huge effect. You can check out the price hits just starting to take significant drops below.

http://www.westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[gdcox]

Be careful with these futures markets. The latest data for Q1 shows only 1428 contracts. That is 22 per day spread over all the contracts. For example, Los Angeles did not trade today. I bet the bid offer spread is very wide.

Doesn’t mean it is wrong, but it is far from the word of God on those volumes

[gdcox]

Be careful with these futures markets. The latest data for Q1 shows only 1428 contracts. That is 22 per day spread over all the contracts. For example, Los Angeles did not trade today. I bet the bid offer spread is very wide.

Doesn’t mean it is wrong, but it is far from the word of God on those volumes

[gdcox]

Be careful with these futures markets. The latest data for Q1 shows only 1428 contracts. That is 22 per day spread over all the contracts. For example, Los Angeles did not trade today. I bet the bid offer spread is very wide.

Doesn’t mean it is wrong, but it is far from the word of God on those volumes

[gdcox]

Be careful with these futures markets. The latest data for Q1 shows only 1428 contracts. That is 22 per day spread over all the contracts. For example, Los Angeles did not trade today. I bet the bid offer spread is very wide.

Doesn’t mean it is wrong, but it is far from the word of God on those volumes

[kev374]

I believe the CME futures market is predicting a 20% decline from now through May 2009 for Los Angeles. My guess it will be more like 30% especially when low buying season hits and banks start cutting prices to unload their REO inventory before year end…thoughts?

[kev374]

I believe the CME futures market is predicting a 20% decline from now through May 2009 for Los Angeles. My guess it will be more like 30% especially when low buying season hits and banks start cutting prices to unload their REO inventory before year end…thoughts?

[kev374]

I believe the CME futures market is predicting a 20% decline from now through May 2009 for Los Angeles. My guess it will be more like 30% especially when low buying season hits and banks start cutting prices to unload their REO inventory before year end…thoughts?

[kev374]

I believe the CME futures market is predicting a 20% decline from now through May 2009 for Los Angeles. My guess it will be more like 30% especially when low buying season hits and banks start cutting prices to unload their REO inventory before year end…thoughts?

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I guess “Late Summer 2008” wasn’t such a bad prediction after all.

For your particular neighborhood (Santa Monica/Westside), I don’t think it will be anywhere close to the bottom within the next 8 weeks (late summer 2008).

However, my guess is that for portions of San Diego and Riverside county late Summer 2008 will be reasonably close to the bottom in pricing, within say 5-10%.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I guess “Late Summer 2008” wasn’t such a bad prediction after all.

For your particular neighborhood (Santa Monica/Westside), I don’t think it will be anywhere close to the bottom within the next 8 weeks (late summer 2008).

However, my guess is that for portions of San Diego and Riverside county late Summer 2008 will be reasonably close to the bottom in pricing, within say 5-10%.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I guess “Late Summer 2008” wasn’t such a bad prediction after all.

For your particular neighborhood (Santa Monica/Westside), I don’t think it will be anywhere close to the bottom within the next 8 weeks (late summer 2008).

However, my guess is that for portions of San Diego and Riverside county late Summer 2008 will be reasonably close to the bottom in pricing, within say 5-10%.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I guess “Late Summer 2008” wasn’t such a bad prediction after all.

For your particular neighborhood (Santa Monica/Westside), I don’t think it will be anywhere close to the bottom within the next 8 weeks (late summer 2008).

However, my guess is that for portions of San Diego and Riverside county late Summer 2008 will be reasonably close to the bottom in pricing, within say 5-10%.

[peterb]

Uncharted is right. Both Bruce Norris and Ward Hannigan, two very seasoned RE investors, have commented that this down cycle is unlike the last couple in many ways and far more severe in depth and speed. Foreclosures topped-out at about 700 a month in the 1990’s for SD county. They’re now approaching 2000 a month! And the full brunt of the recession has yet to hit.

[peterb]

Uncharted is right. Both Bruce Norris and Ward Hannigan, two very seasoned RE investors, have commented that this down cycle is unlike the last couple in many ways and far more severe in depth and speed. Foreclosures topped-out at about 700 a month in the 1990’s for SD county. They’re now approaching 2000 a month! And the full brunt of the recession has yet to hit.

[peterb]

Uncharted is right. Both Bruce Norris and Ward Hannigan, two very seasoned RE investors, have commented that this down cycle is unlike the last couple in many ways and far more severe in depth and speed. Foreclosures topped-out at about 700 a month in the 1990’s for SD county. They’re now approaching 2000 a month! And the full brunt of the recession has yet to hit.

[peterb]

Uncharted is right. Both Bruce Norris and Ward Hannigan, two very seasoned RE investors, have commented that this down cycle is unlike the last couple in many ways and far more severe in depth and speed. Foreclosures topped-out at about 700 a month in the 1990’s for SD county. They’re now approaching 2000 a month! And the full brunt of the recession has yet to hit.

[rocket science]

Don’t I keep reading that IndyMac specialized in Alt-A? Doesn’t that imply the shoe has already dropped? Or did the toe just hit and the rest is coming?

[quote=latesummer2008]Alt-A is the next big shoe to drop. Then, Prime. Real Estate Food chain is getting eaten from the bottom up. quote]

[latesummer2008]

Alt-A loans were made by many banks to buyers with better than subprime credit, but with little verification of income. Many more affluent buyers used them for 1st and second homes. Sound familiar?

Tip of the iceberg with Indymac…

[NotCranky]

Bump

[Enorah]

[quote=Russell]Bump[/quote]

Russ, I can’t get through 7 pages right now

What’s the gist, please?

[NotCranky]

For some reason your new post didn’t show up. Some of us made some predictions on this thread that even Nostradamus would be amazed by. They instigated the “big Chunk or Slow Decline Thread”, where other predictions were formalized.LOL. I bumped it as a reference. Not sure I would recommend trying to catch up with this! Anyway the universe has put salve on my wounds. Today I went to breakfast at a restaurant I was going to much more frequently between 2004 and 2007 and only recently stared goingot more again. The owner started dicussing things we had talked about and he says very rarely does a day go by when doesn’t tell at least one of his customers that I am the only realtor he knows who ever told the truth about any of this, that is, how much the market was bubbling how much realtors were either lieing or ignorant, and about how bad the crash was going to be. How cool is that?

If you see this have a great day!

[Enorah]

you too, Russell

🙂

[NotCranky]

Thanks sweetie,LOL…

[NotCranky]

Thanks sweetie,LOL…

[NotCranky]

Thanks sweetie,LOL…

[NotCranky]

Thanks sweetie,LOL…

[NotCranky]

Thanks sweetie,LOL…

[Enorah]

you too, Russell

🙂

[Enorah]

you too, Russell

🙂

[Enorah]

you too, Russell

🙂

[Enorah]

you too, Russell

🙂

[NotCranky]

For some reason your new post didn’t show up. Some of us made some predictions on this thread that even Nostradamus would be amazed by. They instigated the “big Chunk or Slow Decline Thread”, where other predictions were formalized.LOL. I bumped it as a reference. Not sure I would recommend trying to catch up with this! Anyway the universe has put salve on my wounds. Today I went to breakfast at a restaurant I was going to much more frequently between 2004 and 2007 and only recently stared goingot more again. The owner started dicussing things we had talked about and he says very rarely does a day go by when doesn’t tell at least one of his customers that I am the only realtor he knows who ever told the truth about any of this, that is, how much the market was bubbling how much realtors were either lieing or ignorant, and about how bad the crash was going to be. How cool is that?

If you see this have a great day!

[NotCranky]

For some reason your new post didn’t show up. Some of us made some predictions on this thread that even Nostradamus would be amazed by. They instigated the “big Chunk or Slow Decline Thread”, where other predictions were formalized.LOL. I bumped it as a reference. Not sure I would recommend trying to catch up with this! Anyway the universe has put salve on my wounds. Today I went to breakfast at a restaurant I was going to much more frequently between 2004 and 2007 and only recently stared goingot more again. The owner started dicussing things we had talked about and he says very rarely does a day go by when doesn’t tell at least one of his customers that I am the only realtor he knows who ever told the truth about any of this, that is, how much the market was bubbling how much realtors were either lieing or ignorant, and about how bad the crash was going to be. How cool is that?

If you see this have a great day!

[NotCranky]

For some reason your new post didn’t show up. Some of us made some predictions on this thread that even Nostradamus would be amazed by. They instigated the “big Chunk or Slow Decline Thread”, where other predictions were formalized.LOL. I bumped it as a reference. Not sure I would recommend trying to catch up with this! Anyway the universe has put salve on my wounds. Today I went to breakfast at a restaurant I was going to much more frequently between 2004 and 2007 and only recently stared goingot more again. The owner started dicussing things we had talked about and he says very rarely does a day go by when doesn’t tell at least one of his customers that I am the only realtor he knows who ever told the truth about any of this, that is, how much the market was bubbling how much realtors were either lieing or ignorant, and about how bad the crash was going to be. How cool is that?

If you see this have a great day!

[NotCranky]

For some reason your new post didn’t show up. Some of us made some predictions on this thread that even Nostradamus would be amazed by. They instigated the “big Chunk or Slow Decline Thread”, where other predictions were formalized.LOL. I bumped it as a reference. Not sure I would recommend trying to catch up with this! Anyway the universe has put salve on my wounds. Today I went to breakfast at a restaurant I was going to much more frequently between 2004 and 2007 and only recently stared goingot more again. The owner started dicussing things we had talked about and he says very rarely does a day go by when doesn’t tell at least one of his customers that I am the only realtor he knows who ever told the truth about any of this, that is, how much the market was bubbling how much realtors were either lieing or ignorant, and about how bad the crash was going to be. How cool is that?

If you see this have a great day!

[Enorah]

[quote=Russell]Bump[/quote]

Russ, I can’t get through 7 pages right now

What’s the gist, please?

[Enorah]

[quote=Russell]Bump[/quote]

Russ, I can’t get through 7 pages right now

What’s the gist, please?

[Enorah]

[quote=Russell]Bump[/quote]

Russ, I can’t get through 7 pages right now

What’s the gist, please?

[Enorah]

[quote=Russell]Bump[/quote]

Russ, I can’t get through 7 pages right now

What’s the gist, please?

[NotCranky]

Bump

[NotCranky]

Bump

[NotCranky]

Bump

[NotCranky]

Bump

[latesummer2008]

Alt-A loans were made by many banks to buyers with better than subprime credit, but with little verification of income. Many more affluent buyers used them for 1st and second homes. Sound familiar?

Tip of the iceberg with Indymac…

[latesummer2008]

Alt-A loans were made by many banks to buyers with better than subprime credit, but with little verification of income. Many more affluent buyers used them for 1st and second homes. Sound familiar?

Tip of the iceberg with Indymac…

[latesummer2008]

Alt-A loans were made by many banks to buyers with better than subprime credit, but with little verification of income. Many more affluent buyers used them for 1st and second homes. Sound familiar?

Tip of the iceberg with Indymac…

[latesummer2008]

Alt-A loans were made by many banks to buyers with better than subprime credit, but with little verification of income. Many more affluent buyers used them for 1st and second homes. Sound familiar?

Tip of the iceberg with Indymac…

[rocket science]

Don’t I keep reading that IndyMac specialized in Alt-A? Doesn’t that imply the shoe has already dropped? Or did the toe just hit and the rest is coming?

[quote=latesummer2008]Alt-A is the next big shoe to drop. Then, Prime. Real Estate Food chain is getting eaten from the bottom up. quote]

[rocket science]

Don’t I keep reading that IndyMac specialized in Alt-A? Doesn’t that imply the shoe has already dropped? Or did the toe just hit and the rest is coming?

[quote=latesummer2008]Alt-A is the next big shoe to drop. Then, Prime. Real Estate Food chain is getting eaten from the bottom up. quote]

[rocket science]

Don’t I keep reading that IndyMac specialized in Alt-A? Doesn’t that imply the shoe has already dropped? Or did the toe just hit and the rest is coming?

[quote=latesummer2008]Alt-A is the next big shoe to drop. Then, Prime. Real Estate Food chain is getting eaten from the bottom up. quote]

[rocket science]

Don’t I keep reading that IndyMac specialized in Alt-A? Doesn’t that imply the shoe has already dropped? Or did the toe just hit and the rest is coming?

[quote=latesummer2008]Alt-A is the next big shoe to drop. Then, Prime. Real Estate Food chain is getting eaten from the bottom up. quote]

[latesummer2008]

Alt-A is the next big shoe to drop. Then, Prime. Real Estate Food chain is getting eaten from the bottom up. Pretty soon the top will begin bailing as price declines become more evident there too. Then we will have eating from the top and bottom. Classic collapse… Even the head of JP Morgan said “Prime looks terrible” the other day, noting a spike in defaults.

We need to look at trends for the future, not past results. It’s all about foreclosures. I’m afraid we are in unchartered territory.

[latesummer2008]

Alt-A is the next big shoe to drop. Then, Prime. Real Estate Food chain is getting eaten from the bottom up. Pretty soon the top will begin bailing as price declines become more evident there too. Then we will have eating from the top and bottom. Classic collapse… Even the head of JP Morgan said “Prime looks terrible” the other day, noting a spike in defaults.

We need to look at trends for the future, not past results. It’s all about foreclosures. I’m afraid we are in unchartered territory.

[latesummer2008]

Alt-A is the next big shoe to drop. Then, Prime. Real Estate Food chain is getting eaten from the bottom up. Pretty soon the top will begin bailing as price declines become more evident there too. Then we will have eating from the top and bottom. Classic collapse… Even the head of JP Morgan said “Prime looks terrible” the other day, noting a spike in defaults.

We need to look at trends for the future, not past results. It’s all about foreclosures. I’m afraid we are in unchartered territory.

[latesummer2008]

Alt-A is the next big shoe to drop. Then, Prime. Real Estate Food chain is getting eaten from the bottom up. Pretty soon the top will begin bailing as price declines become more evident there too. Then we will have eating from the top and bottom. Classic collapse… Even the head of JP Morgan said “Prime looks terrible” the other day, noting a spike in defaults.

We need to look at trends for the future, not past results. It’s all about foreclosures. I’m afraid we are in unchartered territory.

[sdrealtor]

Its always fun revisitng old threads. Interestingly enough, while many parts of the county chunked down hard, prices along the coast are still eroding relatively slowly. Isnt fun when we all get to be right.

[sdrealtor]

Its always fun revisitng old threads. Interestingly enough, while many parts of the county chunked down hard, prices along the coast are still eroding relatively slowly. Isnt fun when we all get to be right.

[sdrealtor]

Its always fun revisitng old threads. Interestingly enough, while many parts of the county chunked down hard, prices along the coast are still eroding relatively slowly. Isnt fun when we all get to be right.

[sdrealtor]

Its always fun revisitng old threads. Interestingly enough, while many parts of the county chunked down hard, prices along the coast are still eroding relatively slowly. Isnt fun when we all get to be right.

[NotCranky]

http://piggington.com/slow_decline_or_is_a_big_chunk_about_to_be_ripped_out

You might want to read this thread or at least the start of it. Right after you quit posting it was started. You get mentioned by the OP.

[NotCranky]

http://piggington.com/slow_decline_or_is_a_big_chunk_about_to_be_ripped_out

You might want to read this thread or at least the start of it. Right after you quit posting it was started. You get mentioned by the OP.

[NotCranky]

http://piggington.com/slow_decline_or_is_a_big_chunk_about_to_be_ripped_out

You might want to read this thread or at least the start of it. Right after you quit posting it was started. You get mentioned by the OP.

[NotCranky]

http://piggington.com/slow_decline_or_is_a_big_chunk_about_to_be_ripped_out

You might want to read this thread or at least the start of it. Right after you quit posting it was started. You get mentioned by the OP.

[latesummer2008]

Rustico,

After 1 year I decided to check the San Diego Market again. And as I had mentioned a year ago, the price trends were especially disturbing for San Diego in June of 2007. Many so called “Experts” on this board laughed. I guess they are not laughing now as parts of SD County are off over 50% in less than a year.

I guess “Late Summer 2008” wasn’t such a bad prediction after all. I noticed La Jolla got hit pretty hard last month. I believe that is a great leading indicator on what’s in store for the Westside of Los Angeles. Beverly Hills, Santa Monica, Malibu, Pacific Palisades, and Brentwood all just starting to feel it.

The coming Alt-A and Prime Mortgage Meltdown will continue to hammer the high-end areas next.

Caio’

http://www.westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[latesummer2008]

Rustico,

After 1 year I decided to check the San Diego Market again. And as I had mentioned a year ago, the price trends were especially disturbing for San Diego in June of 2007. Many so called “Experts” on this board laughed. I guess they are not laughing now as parts of SD County are off over 50% in less than a year.

I guess “Late Summer 2008” wasn’t such a bad prediction after all. I noticed La Jolla got hit pretty hard last month. I believe that is a great leading indicator on what’s in store for the Westside of Los Angeles. Beverly Hills, Santa Monica, Malibu, Pacific Palisades, and Brentwood all just starting to feel it.

The coming Alt-A and Prime Mortgage Meltdown will continue to hammer the high-end areas next.

Caio’

http://www.westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[latesummer2008]

Rustico,

After 1 year I decided to check the San Diego Market again. And as I had mentioned a year ago, the price trends were especially disturbing for San Diego in June of 2007. Many so called “Experts” on this board laughed. I guess they are not laughing now as parts of SD County are off over 50% in less than a year.

I guess “Late Summer 2008” wasn’t such a bad prediction after all. I noticed La Jolla got hit pretty hard last month. I believe that is a great leading indicator on what’s in store for the Westside of Los Angeles. Beverly Hills, Santa Monica, Malibu, Pacific Palisades, and Brentwood all just starting to feel it.

The coming Alt-A and Prime Mortgage Meltdown will continue to hammer the high-end areas next.

Caio’

http://www.westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[latesummer2008]

Rustico,

After 1 year I decided to check the San Diego Market again. And as I had mentioned a year ago, the price trends were especially disturbing for San Diego in June of 2007. Many so called “Experts” on this board laughed. I guess they are not laughing now as parts of SD County are off over 50% in less than a year.

I guess “Late Summer 2008” wasn’t such a bad prediction after all. I noticed La Jolla got hit pretty hard last month. I believe that is a great leading indicator on what’s in store for the Westside of Los Angeles. Beverly Hills, Santa Monica, Malibu, Pacific Palisades, and Brentwood all just starting to feel it.

The coming Alt-A and Prime Mortgage Meltdown will continue to hammer the high-end areas next.

Caio’

http://www.westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[NotCranky]

The huge appreciation although it occurred over a long period of time, moved in large chunks over relatively short period of time. I guesstimate we are about to see a large chunk removed.Prices have some what stabilized due to seller’s beliefs that it is spring so there is no need to worry.But as we all know not too much moved ,that creates tension. People are going to realize pretty soon that foreclosure activity doesn’t reflect anything like the bottom and that it is in fact a very bad sign for the market.

Wait until we hear the story. “I just bought a foreclosure and now I am upside down and geting kicked out of my house.”
That ought to do it!

As far as the Deeper goes in the “faster and deeper” I don’t get that unless you are predicting a depression? it will go as deep as it takes to find support and then maybe, as some people have said swing a little past briefly.

[JWM in SD]

It will happen faster & deeper because of the internet. Look at the attention these housing blogs are getting. Lanser at OC Register reached out to Ben Jones over a year ago. Anyone looked the RE Section at the OC Register site lately? Its all bad news all the time. He knew it was coming and that it was not just a bunch of bitter renters bitching about being priced out. The MSM is not going to let this go. They will latch onto it like a pit bull. Other MSM will follow the OC Register example as things become more obvious and J6Pack will begin to finally figure out what is going on…albeit 2 years too late.

[PD]

I think the declines are going to be faster and deeper than they have been. It is getting harder for people to get loans, which is the only thing that is going to slow down the GFs still buying (or force them to pay less).

[sdrealtor]

Fall will cool off more but that is a seasonal thing that happens each year so the real question will be YOY comparisons. I expect what I have for the last 6 months. Stable to slightly decreasing prices through Spring, accelerating price declines in Fall/Winter (about 5% which is about $25,000 to $50,000 per year), lather, rinse, repeat.

I’d love to see it all happen quickly in a year or two as it would be far less painful. But I just dont see things that way, I see a long painful decline ahead continuing for at least 3 more years.

[ibjames]

I imagine the fall to cool off even more, school is starting, people usually do not want to move. They want to be in place before fall.

[little lady]

“First 2 weeks in May county wide numbers are down about 30%. After late reporters I’d expect to see volume is down 20%.”

Thanks, I can’t wait till the fall! Do have any assumptions on what will happen then? I keep reading that it might pick up then. Though I find it hard to believe.

[bubble_contagion]

SD RE sales from rereports.com

March 04: 2,366
April 04: 2,550

March 05: 2,179
April 05: 2,268

March 06: 1,880
April 06: 1,604

March 07: 1,489
April 07: 1,451

In the last two years sales have decreased from March to April and during 04 and 05 sales increased. Sales have been decreasing year-over-year during the last fours years while inventory increased by 400% when compared to March 04 (the absolute low). Still prices haven’t budged much. Go figure….

[uncomfortably numb]

You folks are completely unfair to the Realtors. I am in health care and what’s going on there would make your heads spin. You think Realtors are brutal, how about the report which suggested that over 80% of all open heart surgeries preformed over the past 20 years have been basically unnecessary. Can you imagine ripping somebody’s chest open and putting a patient and their family thorugh that horror for $$. The list goes on and on and on…

All institutions in the U.S. are corrupt, that’s just the way it is, so don’t make this about individuals. Most people are just doing what they need to to get by.

[latesummer2008]

Lie, Cheat and Steal. Whatever it takes to get by. Perhaps, this is the new business mantra.

Just doing their job….

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[ibjames]

It horrifies me what people will do for money.

[ibjames]

It horrifies me what people will do for money.

[latesummer2008]

Lie, Cheat and Steal. Whatever it takes to get by. Perhaps, this is the new business mantra.

Just doing their job….

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[uncomfortably numb]

You folks are completely unfair to the Realtors. I am in health care and what’s going on there would make your heads spin. You think Realtors are brutal, how about the report which suggested that over 80% of all open heart surgeries preformed over the past 20 years have been basically unnecessary. Can you imagine ripping somebody’s chest open and putting a patient and their family thorugh that horror for $$. The list goes on and on and on…

All institutions in the U.S. are corrupt, that’s just the way it is, so don’t make this about individuals. Most people are just doing what they need to to get by.

[uncomfortably numb]

Let’s talk about what you do for a living, Mr. Ethics (LS2008). How do you pay your bills? Do you exist outside of the U.S. economy?

[uncomfortably numb]

Let’s talk about what you do for a living, Mr. Ethics (LS2008). How do you pay your bills? Do you exist outside of the U.S. economy?

[uncomfortably numb]

It’s not a question of what people will do for money; people will do *everything* for money, and have throughout history. The question is, how does one exist within the system as it confronts us all?

I have told people for the past fifteen years that, as almost any type of health care provider, if you **truly** acted in the best interests of the patient (and I don’t mean “I have to live like a doctor,” best interests, either) , you would be out of business within a month. This is the reality of a health care system run by corporations, either directly or indirectly.

The problems we all face in this country are extremely complex and can not be solved easily. If you have solutions, speak up. The planet would love to hear them.

[latesummer2008]

Mr. Numb-skull, I’m a Science Teacher at a public high school. I chose not to continue in RE because of all the lying, cheating, and stealing scum.

Any other smart questions?

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[Anonymous]

Science teacher, L.A., public school. Sounds like lots of showings of ‘An Inconvenient Truth’ and ‘discussions’ afterwards.

LS ’08, why don’t you do the honorable (but lower paid) thing and teach at a private school, where you have motivated students, motivated parents, and the power to expel disrupters?

My two kids will never set foot in a pubic, I mean public, school.

[4plexowner]

are the teachers really at fault?

if there were an unspoken mandate to continue the intentional dumbing-down of Americans, that mandate is being carried out very effectively

perhaps the teachers are just unfortunate pawns in a system that is doing exactly what it is intended to do – ie, produce stupid, complacent sheep

~

read “The Creature from Jekyll Island: A 2nd Look at the Federal Reserve”, by G Edward Griffin – he shows how the American education system is controlled by the moneyed elite

[latesummer2008]

Sorry to burst your Libertarian Bubble folks, but, I am mandated to teach a standardized curriculum. And I do, because that is what I am being paid for. However, I incorporate current events and critical thinking EVERY DAY. If the public is not educated to think, than it IS very convenient for those in POWER (ie $$$$$$), to persuade by fear and hate. I feel this is by design, so UNEDUCATED people can elect politicians with a FEW peoples interest in mind. MAINLY BIG BUSINESS.

Try READING books on what causes the decline of any empire, and 99.9% of the time it is TOO MUCH POWER.

Get a clue……….

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[Anonymous]

Yep, just what I thought: another shallow-thinking public servant, in charge of impressionable kids. You complain of libertarians; why are so many of you public school teachers populists/wannabe fascists?

There are no secret meetings of powerful cabals or businessman, plotting world domination. There’s just the machinations of individual greedy businessmen and self-before-kids public school teachers/union hacks.

[Bugs]

As a society we have decided that the public interest goes far beyond the creation and maintenance of an interstate highway system and national defense. Our government has no more power than what we give to it, conspiracy theories aside.

I’ll also say that any parent who is sufficiently motivated to do so can readily overcome the weaknesses of our public school system. Kids fail in their education to the extent their parents abdicate all responsibility for performance to the schools.

[NotCranky]

JG
Choosing private schools means you are choosing to expose your children to singular points of view.They already get that from you. Why not trust your children to walk in the world and learn to sort out fact from myth with the critical thinking skills that you give them? That way the whole family can grow together. No one will be stifled by the inhumanity of the predominantly classist view points of the faculty and wrongly motivated parents in private schools. Since the ruling class predominanlty is of the private school system perhaps it stands to reason we would have a better government if regulation was past that no child could receive more than 1/2 of their education in the private system. JG you have personally helped me derive my opinions of private schools.As a parent of three young boys, I thank you. I would like my kids to get a better education than I did, but not yours.
Best wishes

[sdrealtor]

JG,
You mentioned previously in another thread that you were born in Philly. Were you educated there also? I know that area very well and have lots of family back there. No point to my question, just curious as to where you grew up there.

sdr

[sdrealtor]

JG,
You mentioned previously in another thread that you were born in Philly. Were you educated there also? I know that area very well and have lots of family back there. No point to my question, just curious as to where you grew up there.

sdr

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

[NotCranky]

In defense of public schools, I would edit past to passed in my diatribe above, if I only could. It is not that I mind screwing up but that one looks rally bad in view of the ribbing I am giving JG!

[NotCranky]

In defense of public schools, I would edit past to passed in my diatribe above, if I only could. It is not that I mind screwing up but that one looks rally bad in view of the ribbing I am giving JG!

[cyphire]

Rustico – I am very sympathetic to jg’s point of view. I also live in La Jolla and am pretty uncomfortable with the public school system. La Jolla and Carmel Valley (two of the 3 places I have lived since coming here from NY 8 years ago) have the best schools in SD – but they are sorely lacking in comparison to east coast public schools and private schools.

Each child is different, each parent and home life is different and different things work for different people (apologize for using different so many times…). I have one child in private school (Junior High) and one who is in public (but both have been in both private and public). Schools are financed very differently out here than lets say in NY. I think that the NY system is horrifically unfair but it does create great public schools for the better towns. Carmel Valley and La Jolla schools are some of the best that SD has to offer and I am so underwhelmed.

The second child is pretty bored by public school and is amazed at the lack of civility. The kids curse, are mean to each other, etc. In the public school it is 100% different. The kids are held to the kind of standard that the last 3 pages of this blog envision as the gold standard. My son hadn’t heard a kid cursing the whole time he was in private school (and it is a non-religious school) but witnessed kids cursing at teachers here in LJ.

Don’t get me wrong – I don’t think the school is terrible. But to get him into private school in 7th grade I am going to get a tutor, keep having him excel at home (he has to write a report weekly on a weekly book to earn weekend video games), and otherwise be very involved from a parenting standpoint. He is a smart sensitive kid and I wish that the public school emulated the private schools – but they don’t. Even in the most expensive communities, they are trapped in a system which doesn’t reward excellence and must serve all levels of intelligence, mental problems, family issues, etc. all on a very tiny budget.

p.s. What makes NY so unfair is that a percentage of the property and business taxes are directly given to the school system. In poor areas with no businesses, they have a tiny fraction of the money that rich areas have. This works against societies long term interests… Here in LJ (and CV) the parents dig in and sell, create, fund, etc. but they have the money to add to the schools resources. In other parts of SD they don’t have the economics to support it so it’s pretty much the same around the US. Also you get what you pay for. In NY the taxes on the house we sold in the north county would be around 30K – here they were 20K and only because we bought so recently.

[cyphire]

Rustico – I am very sympathetic to jg’s point of view. I also live in La Jolla and am pretty uncomfortable with the public school system. La Jolla and Carmel Valley (two of the 3 places I have lived since coming here from NY 8 years ago) have the best schools in SD – but they are sorely lacking in comparison to east coast public schools and private schools.

Each child is different, each parent and home life is different and different things work for different people (apologize for using different so many times…). I have one child in private school (Junior High) and one who is in public (but both have been in both private and public). Schools are financed very differently out here than lets say in NY. I think that the NY system is horrifically unfair but it does create great public schools for the better towns. Carmel Valley and La Jolla schools are some of the best that SD has to offer and I am so underwhelmed.

The second child is pretty bored by public school and is amazed at the lack of civility. The kids curse, are mean to each other, etc. In the public school it is 100% different. The kids are held to the kind of standard that the last 3 pages of this blog envision as the gold standard. My son hadn’t heard a kid cursing the whole time he was in private school (and it is a non-religious school) but witnessed kids cursing at teachers here in LJ.

Don’t get me wrong – I don’t think the school is terrible. But to get him into private school in 7th grade I am going to get a tutor, keep having him excel at home (he has to write a report weekly on a weekly book to earn weekend video games), and otherwise be very involved from a parenting standpoint. He is a smart sensitive kid and I wish that the public school emulated the private schools – but they don’t. Even in the most expensive communities, they are trapped in a system which doesn’t reward excellence and must serve all levels of intelligence, mental problems, family issues, etc. all on a very tiny budget.

p.s. What makes NY so unfair is that a percentage of the property and business taxes are directly given to the school system. In poor areas with no businesses, they have a tiny fraction of the money that rich areas have. This works against societies long term interests… Here in LJ (and CV) the parents dig in and sell, create, fund, etc. but they have the money to add to the schools resources. In other parts of SD they don’t have the economics to support it so it’s pretty much the same around the US. Also you get what you pay for. In NY the taxes on the house we sold in the north county would be around 30K – here they were 20K and only because we bought so recently.

[NotCranky]

JG
Choosing private schools means you are choosing to expose your children to singular points of view.They already get that from you. Why not trust your children to walk in the world and learn to sort out fact from myth with the critical thinking skills that you give them? That way the whole family can grow together. No one will be stifled by the inhumanity of the predominantly classist view points of the faculty and wrongly motivated parents in private schools. Since the ruling class predominanlty is of the private school system perhaps it stands to reason we would have a better government if regulation was past that no child could receive more than 1/2 of their education in the private system. JG you have personally helped me derive my opinions of private schools.As a parent of three young boys, I thank you. I would like my kids to get a better education than I did, but not yours.
Best wishes

[Bugs]

As a society we have decided that the public interest goes far beyond the creation and maintenance of an interstate highway system and national defense. Our government has no more power than what we give to it, conspiracy theories aside.

I’ll also say that any parent who is sufficiently motivated to do so can readily overcome the weaknesses of our public school system. Kids fail in their education to the extent their parents abdicate all responsibility for performance to the schools.

[Anonymous]

Yep, just what I thought: another shallow-thinking public servant, in charge of impressionable kids. You complain of libertarians; why are so many of you public school teachers populists/wannabe fascists?

There are no secret meetings of powerful cabals or businessman, plotting world domination. There’s just the machinations of individual greedy businessmen and self-before-kids public school teachers/union hacks.

[latesummer2008]

Sorry to burst your Libertarian Bubble folks, but, I am mandated to teach a standardized curriculum. And I do, because that is what I am being paid for. However, I incorporate current events and critical thinking EVERY DAY. If the public is not educated to think, than it IS very convenient for those in POWER (ie $$$$$$), to persuade by fear and hate. I feel this is by design, so UNEDUCATED people can elect politicians with a FEW peoples interest in mind. MAINLY BIG BUSINESS.

Try READING books on what causes the decline of any empire, and 99.9% of the time it is TOO MUCH POWER.

Get a clue……….

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[4plexowner]

are the teachers really at fault?

if there were an unspoken mandate to continue the intentional dumbing-down of Americans, that mandate is being carried out very effectively

perhaps the teachers are just unfortunate pawns in a system that is doing exactly what it is intended to do – ie, produce stupid, complacent sheep

~

read “The Creature from Jekyll Island: A 2nd Look at the Federal Reserve”, by G Edward Griffin – he shows how the American education system is controlled by the moneyed elite

[cyphire]

I do think you are being a little hard on the educator. There are lots of bad teachers out there in public school, but there are lots of good ones as well. I think all science teachers are awesome!!! In my public school in NY we had terrible and great english teachers, same in social studies… but the math and science teachers were almost always someone special. Maybe I’m biased because I am a geek – but I think it’s pretty special to try and teach kids math and science.

The problem with education (in my opinion) is that it is not given enough budget or status in our society. Education is the key to EVERYTHING. It eliminates poverty, prejudice, and narrow-minded belief systems. On the other side teaching has awesome people but also burnt out wrecks hanging on to a unionized position. The bad teachers being allowed to teach hurt the profession just as the good teachers make it special. The private schools, while generally paying less money, have complete accountability to the parents paying the tuition. They attract great teachers or they are fired. You can’t do that in the public school system… Our private school pays very, very well and it’s reflected in the tuition. It is elitist in the sense that only a few select children can attend, but the education and environment they are getting is worth every penny. I wish this wasn’t the case.

[cyphire]

I do think you are being a little hard on the educator. There are lots of bad teachers out there in public school, but there are lots of good ones as well. I think all science teachers are awesome!!! In my public school in NY we had terrible and great english teachers, same in social studies… but the math and science teachers were almost always someone special. Maybe I’m biased because I am a geek – but I think it’s pretty special to try and teach kids math and science.

The problem with education (in my opinion) is that it is not given enough budget or status in our society. Education is the key to EVERYTHING. It eliminates poverty, prejudice, and narrow-minded belief systems. On the other side teaching has awesome people but also burnt out wrecks hanging on to a unionized position. The bad teachers being allowed to teach hurt the profession just as the good teachers make it special. The private schools, while generally paying less money, have complete accountability to the parents paying the tuition. They attract great teachers or they are fired. You can’t do that in the public school system… Our private school pays very, very well and it’s reflected in the tuition. It is elitist in the sense that only a few select children can attend, but the education and environment they are getting is worth every penny. I wish this wasn’t the case.

[Anonymous]

Science teacher, L.A., public school. Sounds like lots of showings of ‘An Inconvenient Truth’ and ‘discussions’ afterwards.

LS ’08, why don’t you do the honorable (but lower paid) thing and teach at a private school, where you have motivated students, motivated parents, and the power to expel disrupters?

My two kids will never set foot in a pubic, I mean public, school.

[latesummer2008]

Mr. Numb-skull, I’m a Science Teacher at a public high school. I chose not to continue in RE because of all the lying, cheating, and stealing scum.

Any other smart questions?

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[barnaby33]

I have a solution, and its simple. Oh the big bonus is it works!

Here goes: Lower our population!

See I told you it was simple.

Josh

[barnaby33]

I have a solution, and its simple. Oh the big bonus is it works!

Here goes: Lower our population!

See I told you it was simple.

Josh

[uncomfortably numb]

It’s not a question of what people will do for money; people will do *everything* for money, and have throughout history. The question is, how does one exist within the system as it confronts us all?

I have told people for the past fifteen years that, as almost any type of health care provider, if you **truly** acted in the best interests of the patient (and I don’t mean “I have to live like a doctor,” best interests, either) , you would be out of business within a month. This is the reality of a health care system run by corporations, either directly or indirectly.

The problems we all face in this country are extremely complex and can not be solved easily. If you have solutions, speak up. The planet would love to hear them.

[uncomfortably numb]

Well, not much I can add to your eloquent statement except, how did you ever get a teaching position?

[SDowner]

I totally agree with LS2008 (not how it was expressed). I do not blame any specific profession, realtors, or healthcare professionals. I think as individuals we need to have a strong moral core of right and wrong. Nothing wrong in making money, but no need to bend ur spine backwards to get along with corruption in society and the “general” trend of making a quick buck by compromising ur values.

anyone who has read history would realize over time any country or society suffers and fails when ordinary people generalize corruption and immorality as “conforming” to society and “earning” ur living.

SDowner

[SDowner]

I totally agree with LS2008 (not how it was expressed). I do not blame any specific profession, realtors, or healthcare professionals. I think as individuals we need to have a strong moral core of right and wrong. Nothing wrong in making money, but no need to bend ur spine backwards to get along with corruption in society and the “general” trend of making a quick buck by compromising ur values.

anyone who has read history would realize over time any country or society suffers and fails when ordinary people generalize corruption and immorality as “conforming” to society and “earning” ur living.

SDowner

[uncomfortably numb]

Well, not much I can add to your eloquent statement except, how did you ever get a teaching position?

[uncomfortably numb]

This is not black and white. It’s not that people necessarily want to be corrupt, in many cases (and increasingly so) there is simply little choice. That’s one of the many problems out there, no alternatives, but that’s another story.

There has been a legal climate constructed within this society which mandates very specific behaviors. In medicine, it’s called the “standard of care.” If you don’t follow this standard, even if you know it is not correct, you’re setting yourself up to get slaughtered. The standard of care is now basically the standard of gaining the highest return on capital investment. This is just the reality of modern corporate-controlled medicine. It’s pretty much the same everywhere else too.

So, it’s not just a matter of being evil or corrupt. It’s much more complicated than that.

[drunkle]

isn’t that the problem? complacency, people accepting corruption as the norm leading to more and more complacency and corruption.

the other thread regarding regulation is a perfect example. people actively wanting less regulation and accepting corruption as the norm. they’ve been brainwashed into thinking that the corporation is the ideal, that governments and individuals are meaningless, even worthless.

[drunkle]

isn’t that the problem? complacency, people accepting corruption as the norm leading to more and more complacency and corruption.

the other thread regarding regulation is a perfect example. people actively wanting less regulation and accepting corruption as the norm. they’ve been brainwashed into thinking that the corporation is the ideal, that governments and individuals are meaningless, even worthless.

[uncomfortably numb]

This is not black and white. It’s not that people necessarily want to be corrupt, in many cases (and increasingly so) there is simply little choice. That’s one of the many problems out there, no alternatives, but that’s another story.

There has been a legal climate constructed within this society which mandates very specific behaviors. In medicine, it’s called the “standard of care.” If you don’t follow this standard, even if you know it is not correct, you’re setting yourself up to get slaughtered. The standard of care is now basically the standard of gaining the highest return on capital investment. This is just the reality of modern corporate-controlled medicine. It’s pretty much the same everywhere else too.

So, it’s not just a matter of being evil or corrupt. It’s much more complicated than that.

[uncomfortably numb]

Let’s take LS2008’s profession, Education, as an example. There are many wonderful teachers out there, very caring, very bright, damn good people. But what are they doing to the children of our country? They are ‘teaching’ them a prescribed curriculum which insures a compliant populace, i.e., basically creating non-thinking droids. Does this mean that teachers are corrupt? Most teachers know exactly what’s going on but can do little to change it other than attempt to encourage their students to learn on their own. It’s this way in law, in government, in health care, in everything.

This system of ours is decaying and this is what happens. As with all systems, a new one will take its place eventually but you and I and probably the next couple of generations are going to have to deal with a great deal of ugliness. It’s just the way it is. Do the best you can to help the most people and let the chips fall where they may.

[uncomfortably numb]

Let’s take LS2008’s profession, Education, as an example. There are many wonderful teachers out there, very caring, very bright, damn good people. But what are they doing to the children of our country? They are ‘teaching’ them a prescribed curriculum which insures a compliant populace, i.e., basically creating non-thinking droids. Does this mean that teachers are corrupt? Most teachers know exactly what’s going on but can do little to change it other than attempt to encourage their students to learn on their own. It’s this way in law, in government, in health care, in everything.

This system of ours is decaying and this is what happens. As with all systems, a new one will take its place eventually but you and I and probably the next couple of generations are going to have to deal with a great deal of ugliness. It’s just the way it is. Do the best you can to help the most people and let the chips fall where they may.

[uncomfortably numb]

It really doesn’t matter which institution you refer to. They all work in concert, so if one is corrupt, they are all corrupt. The point I was attempting to make is that although there are people who are more or less eithical for probably a trillion different reasons, the morality of the society dictates the boundries by which each of us must operate. Unfortunately, the morality of this society is determined by those who are the most unbalanced, and view the purpose of human existance as simply maximising the return on capital investment. Nature, or God, or whatever you wish to call it, will take care of this dysfunction in due time.

LS2008, try not to blame other people. Isn’t it hard enough just to try and take care of ourselves? Who knows, maybe somewhere along the line, a Realtor did something that greatly helped you or a member of your family to be a better person. Try not to confuse a corupt system with bad people. The vast majority of people are simply trying to get by, raise a family, and seek some sort of contentment in life. As you know, this is no easy task, especially in these times of incredible change. Kick back, and have a cold one and think how fortunate you are to be in a position to make a real difference in a young person’s life.

[NotCranky]

Numb , Your eloquent commentary packs enough condemnation against our society to start a revolution yet you recommend kicking back and drinking a beer. I get sad visuals of Ghandi getting drunk.

[Anonymous]

Rustico, like you, I want better for my children. I spent three years in parochial schools and the rest in public schools, and, comparing the two, said ‘Never’ to public schools for my kids.

sdr, I spent my first seven years of life in South Philly (I’m half Italian). I went to school through second grade at St. Monica’s. We had kind nuns who were happy to rap your knuckles with a ruler if you misbehaved. Just what boys need: kindness with discipline.

[sdrealtor]

Yo JG!
Pat’s or Geno’s? Wid or Widout? Your feelings toward public schools make sense coming from a South Philly Goomba;) Philly schools have long been aweful and most of the kids from minority (you should know what I mean by that) families depend on the Catholic schools for a decent education.

sdr

[Anonymous]

Both Geno’s and Pat’s!

For what it’s worth, my distate for public schools began in San Diego: my family moved from Philly to San Diego, where I was dropped into Kit Carson Elementary. I was bored out of my gourd, and things only marginally improved when I transferred to Pete Ross Elementary.

We then moved to Austin, and the schools that I attended were good, until busing came around, and poorly behaved folks tromped into our nice schools.

That’s my big beef with public schools: they tolerate and coddle poorly behaved folks instead of kicking them out.

[sdrealtor]

Cheez wid fried onions at Pat’s is my choice.

[sdrealtor]

Cheez wid fried onions at Pat’s is my choice.

[Anonymous]

Both Geno’s and Pat’s!

For what it’s worth, my distate for public schools began in San Diego: my family moved from Philly to San Diego, where I was dropped into Kit Carson Elementary. I was bored out of my gourd, and things only marginally improved when I transferred to Pete Ross Elementary.

We then moved to Austin, and the schools that I attended were good, until busing came around, and poorly behaved folks tromped into our nice schools.

That’s my big beef with public schools: they tolerate and coddle poorly behaved folks instead of kicking them out.

[sdrealtor]

Yo JG!
Pat’s or Geno’s? Wid or Widout? Your feelings toward public schools make sense coming from a South Philly Goomba;) Philly schools have long been aweful and most of the kids from minority (you should know what I mean by that) families depend on the Catholic schools for a decent education.

sdr

[Anonymous]

Rustico, like you, I want better for my children. I spent three years in parochial schools and the rest in public schools, and, comparing the two, said ‘Never’ to public schools for my kids.

sdr, I spent my first seven years of life in South Philly (I’m half Italian). I went to school through second grade at St. Monica’s. We had kind nuns who were happy to rap your knuckles with a ruler if you misbehaved. Just what boys need: kindness with discipline.

[NotCranky]

Numb , Your eloquent commentary packs enough condemnation against our society to start a revolution yet you recommend kicking back and drinking a beer. I get sad visuals of Ghandi getting drunk.

[uncomfortably numb]

It really doesn’t matter which institution you refer to. They all work in concert, so if one is corrupt, they are all corrupt. The point I was attempting to make is that although there are people who are more or less eithical for probably a trillion different reasons, the morality of the society dictates the boundries by which each of us must operate. Unfortunately, the morality of this society is determined by those who are the most unbalanced, and view the purpose of human existance as simply maximising the return on capital investment. Nature, or God, or whatever you wish to call it, will take care of this dysfunction in due time.

LS2008, try not to blame other people. Isn’t it hard enough just to try and take care of ourselves? Who knows, maybe somewhere along the line, a Realtor did something that greatly helped you or a member of your family to be a better person. Try not to confuse a corupt system with bad people. The vast majority of people are simply trying to get by, raise a family, and seek some sort of contentment in life. As you know, this is no easy task, especially in these times of incredible change. Kick back, and have a cold one and think how fortunate you are to be in a position to make a real difference in a young person’s life.

[uncomfortably numb]

Actually, the revolution has been underway for the past fifty years. And, as is always the case, the seeds of the succeeding revolution are planted simultaneously. You are watching (and participating in) the counter-revolution as we speak! Just think about what’s going on in the world right now. Hang on tight my friend, it’s going to be one hell of a ride.

On the other hand, none of it really exists anyway :).

“Impermanence is swift”
Huang Po d850AD

[uncomfortably numb]

Actually, the revolution has been underway for the past fifty years. And, as is always the case, the seeds of the succeeding revolution are planted simultaneously. You are watching (and participating in) the counter-revolution as we speak! Just think about what’s going on in the world right now. Hang on tight my friend, it’s going to be one hell of a ride.

On the other hand, none of it really exists anyway :).

“Impermanence is swift”
Huang Po d850AD

[uncomfortably numb]

Actually, Mama’s, on Belmont Avenue (Bala Cynwyd) wipes Pat’s or Geno’s. After Mama’s you could bop over to Overbrook WaterIce for a $0.49 chocolate and a couple of soft pretzel *with* mustard, either on Main Street in Manayunk or be really brave and do the original across from Overbrook high school. Now, if we’re talking Geno’s hambergers (back in the 50’s and 60’s), I’ll take Geno’s. Grew up in Lower Merion (Bryn Mawr, Wynnewood, then Penn Valley) but have been gone for several decades.

[latesummer2008]

Any guesses what on what the numbers will look like in June? I would imagine prices dropped considerably for New Homes, while volume increased. However, Existing Homes, dropped more in price, and in volume.

Spring season appears, to be a dud.

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[latesummer2008]

Any guesses what on what the numbers will look like in June? I would imagine prices dropped considerably for New Homes, while volume increased. However, Existing Homes, dropped more in price, and in volume.

Spring season appears, to be a dud.

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[sdrealtor]

Numb,
Its all about the environment with Pat’s and geno’s. Freezing you butt off at 2 am in line at Pat’s is classic. We could all name a dozen better places to get a cheesesteak. I remeber Genos’ also before it got acquired by KFC (remember that?). My best friend in the world lives off Righter’s Mill in PV and I have friends all over the Main Line. In my book, its a nice place to be from. I suspect you probably feel the same way.

sdr

sdr

[kev374]

Check out this property:

An almost $100,000 price reduction and a loss of over $25,000. Motivated sellers are slowly coming out of the closet. Patience is key in this market because it is falling pretty quick.

[kev374]

Check out this property:

An almost $100,000 price reduction and a loss of over $25,000. Motivated sellers are slowly coming out of the closet. Patience is key in this market because it is falling pretty quick.

[sdrealtor]

Numb,
Its all about the environment with Pat’s and geno’s. Freezing you butt off at 2 am in line at Pat’s is classic. We could all name a dozen better places to get a cheesesteak. I remeber Genos’ also before it got acquired by KFC (remember that?). My best friend in the world lives off Righter’s Mill in PV and I have friends all over the Main Line. In my book, its a nice place to be from. I suspect you probably feel the same way.

sdr

sdr

[uncomfortably numb]

Actually, Mama’s, on Belmont Avenue (Bala Cynwyd) wipes Pat’s or Geno’s. After Mama’s you could bop over to Overbrook WaterIce for a $0.49 chocolate and a couple of soft pretzel *with* mustard, either on Main Street in Manayunk or be really brave and do the original across from Overbrook high school. Now, if we’re talking Geno’s hambergers (back in the 50’s and 60’s), I’ll take Geno’s. Grew up in Lower Merion (Bryn Mawr, Wynnewood, then Penn Valley) but have been gone for several decades.

[uncomfortably numb]

sdr, you’ve got one hell of a memory! And you are correct, it was a good place to be from, especially in the 50’s/60’s. Were you there in the 70’s when you could still get a gorgeous 3500sf Main Line stone home on a pristine acre or two for a buck and a quarter? Philadelphia may not be a lot of things, but you simple can’t beat the real estate. Absolutely gorgeous homes by the thousands and thousands, and, of course the birthplace of my personal hero, Grace Kelly :).

[sdrealtor]

I didnt grow up on the Main Line but many of my childhood friends ended up there (Drs, Lawyers, Stockbrokers, Financial Planners, Execs. etc.) I also acquired many friends through my early adult life that grew up and stayed there. I used dated a girl who lived in an awesome house in Villanova. I’m not sure but I believe they evenually sold the house to Dr, J. Those old homes are spectacular. My best friend actually bought an acre lot down a private drive and built a beautiful custom home about 15 years ago.

I’m in my mid 40’s and was in that area from the early 60’s through most of the 80’s. Most of that time was spent across the river. I still remember my dad taking us out for a bucket of chicken at Geno’s. You might even recall that the lids were great frisbees.

[sdrealtor]

I didnt grow up on the Main Line but many of my childhood friends ended up there (Drs, Lawyers, Stockbrokers, Financial Planners, Execs. etc.) I also acquired many friends through my early adult life that grew up and stayed there. I used dated a girl who lived in an awesome house in Villanova. I’m not sure but I believe they evenually sold the house to Dr, J. Those old homes are spectacular. My best friend actually bought an acre lot down a private drive and built a beautiful custom home about 15 years ago.

I’m in my mid 40’s and was in that area from the early 60’s through most of the 80’s. Most of that time was spent across the river. I still remember my dad taking us out for a bucket of chicken at Geno’s. You might even recall that the lids were great frisbees.

[uncomfortably numb]

sdr, you’ve got one hell of a memory! And you are correct, it was a good place to be from, especially in the 50’s/60’s. Were you there in the 70’s when you could still get a gorgeous 3500sf Main Line stone home on a pristine acre or two for a buck and a quarter? Philadelphia may not be a lot of things, but you simple can’t beat the real estate. Absolutely gorgeous homes by the thousands and thousands, and, of course the birthplace of my personal hero, Grace Kelly :).

[uncomfortably numb]

Not that I am long on memory, but I remember sitting in front of the Geno’s on West Chester Pike in Havertown (it was near the driving range); I was probably eight or nine, bucket of fried chicken, in my mom’s corvair listening to Bill Cosby’s new album, “Right!”. I remember it so vividly because the guy next to us had it on and he waited the entire time (20 minutes or more) until it was over so we could listen to it. Now how’s that for times being different ‘back in the day.’ I also remember the Frisbee lids and the burgers being 19 cents. I can still picture the 19 cent sign. And that’s when a dollar was still worth 19 cents!

[latesummer2008]

Yo Adrienne!! Can we tawk about R.E? I believe San Diego Numbers for Volume and Median Price are due out this week in the Sunday LA Times.

Any predictions on what will be reported?

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[sdrealtor]

Sorry buddy but you are mixing accents. We dont tawk we tuk.

SFR volume down about 20%
Attached volume down about 30%

Median is anyone’s guess.

[latesummer2008]

Dataquick Numbers are out for SD. Not very good for SFRs:

Carlsbad -18.3%
Coronado -11.5%
La Jolla -19.2%
Rancho Santa Fe -35.0%
Solana Beach -42.8%

Massive declines for Condos almost all across the board.

But I guess this is an aberration, along with all the other higher end areas in Southern California that got WHACKED in April….

Right????

Wait until you see the May numbers…

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[jeeman]

Are those sales volume numbers or median price numbers? Year over year, or month from month?

Jeeman

[jeeman]

Are those sales volume numbers or median price numbers? Year over year, or month from month?

Jeeman

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

A less myopic view would imply that Carlsbad is likely down about 5-10% on average YOY.

… here’s the rest of the story …

Carlsbad 92008 +8.7% on 19 sales
Carlsbad 92009 -5.7% on 60 sales
Carlsbad 92010 -18.3% on 11 sales
Carlsbad 92011 -4.3% on 24 sales.

More cherry-picked sensationalism that would have people think Carlsbad is down 18.3%

(jeeman – Those are YOY median price numbers from specific zip codes)

[latesummer2008]

Or a realistic view of say:

Rancho Santa Fe 92067
18 sales -35.0% $467/sqft

I would say the high end market is showing a wee bit of weakness. Oh, but of course, this is just an anamoly, right?

Keep drinking that Realtor Kool-Aid..

http:westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[latesummer2008]

DataQuick Numbers show Median Prices YOY in April for different areas of SD in their CA City Chart:

Carlsbad
196 sales (-13.61) $735,000 — $635,000

Solana Beach
11 sales (-28.21) $975,000 — $700,000

Rancho Santa Fe
18 sales (-27.89) $2,945,000 — $2,125,000

This aggregate number might be a bit more reliable from DataQuick. Regardless, it appears that these 3 areas are being hit the hardest right now.

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[NotCranky]

CY
I am not really unsympathetic to JG’s point of view on the education of children or to him for that matter. I see chance to play devil’s advocate I take it.Just throwing out observations here and there. My kids are young I am not sure what we will do. I have read some of your other post and you are in a different league financially. The debate might be different if money were not an issue.We live in Jamul and I feel that the schools should be O.K if we use them.The area is becoming less rural and more upscale suburban which only matters to me because I think upscale suburban is better for education and crime rates than rural or inner city. My wife and I are very hands on parents. I don’t like the idea of home schooling,even though we can pull it off. Forming a group of parents with various talents is an idea we have considered.Either way I take responsibility for my childs education. If they show genius they won’t be held back by me.If they are average I will do my best to help them too.I won’t put them in private schools just so we and they can mingle with the right people and all that.
I agree that the experience,from a childs perspective at many of the public schools ammounts to cruel and unusual punishment. I feel bad for the hard working, education minded kids who must attend that kind of circus.Most of the acting out kids are parenting deficient but they are very disruptive all the same.The teachers have little authority because there is often no parent who can be counted on to back them up. School administrators do not always back them up. The kids have to be in school by law.It is very expensive and a political disaster to single them out for special treatment. I agree with you that most of the teachers, however imperfect, deserve a lot of respect and help.
I don’t believe that money is the solution to all problems in education. Look at the asian immigrants who come here. What do you imagine was spent on their education in their respective countries of origin? How much does it cost to learn calculus? Wastefulness and using money as an excuse for everything , along with the trend to abdicate personal ethics and responsibility are a big part of the problem.

[cyphire]

Very well said Rustico. I actually don’t want my kids mixing with ‘the right people’ – I actually am suspect of wealthy screwed up kids. Some are good, some are morally bankrupt like their parents. I’m trying to raise good kids and still try to keep their values intact (it’s hard in LJ – which is why I was considering moving to Carmel Valley.)

Also from a public school perspective – my son is in public school right now because we moved – and while he is a bit bored and some of the kids act up, it’s a real world situation and he’s been a little too protected. The school here in LJ is actually very nice and the kids are just normal kids (most of them). It’s good for him and hopefully he gets into the private school for 7-12th for the reasons its a better education, definetely not better people!

I went to school in a middle class public school and it was both good and bad. Back then there were a lot of bullies, the teachers locked themselves in the teacher’s lounge and smoked and we had to look out for ourselves. It’s way better now – kids are taught tolerance, kindness, and bullying isn’t tolerated.

My big problem with the public school system is that it is mediocre. It doesn’t have to be. Using the money more effectively, having teachers which are far more empowered, and removing the tenure idea and make teachers hit standards of excellence (like most well run companies) – and removing the teachers unions. Teaching should be like any job and it should be pay for performance. I think as a society we should be having our best and brightest be the teachers! A great teacher can take kids and mold them – give them some of what many kids don’t get at home – an example.

Anyway thats my rant. I would love to see more quality in the public schools. If the public schools were 80% as good as the private schools – the private schools would disappear!

[latesummer2008]

Private vs Public School. This is obviously a big debate and a difficult one to answer. Why? Because there are so many variables to consider. I don’t think it is possible, to make a blanket statement about either. The truth is,there are both good and bad public and private schools.
Having taught at public high school for 10 years, I can inform you about my experiences. Despite MSM reports, there are some students getting a good education in public schools. There are good teachers teaching good students. It is far from the mayhem that the MSM likes to report. Sure, there are some bad students, roughly 10% that need to be dealt with. (More swiftly in my opinion.) But overall, kids come to school and go about their business of being teenagers. What normally distinguishes a “Good School” from a “Bad School”, is the amount of PARENT INVOLVEMENT. I see this on a daily basis. Children, whose parents are active, get their students in the best classes and with the best teachers. And, they are being well educated.
Believe it or not, “EDUCATION” is not just about learning to be academic. Sure, it is important teach content, and to motivate students HOW, to learn. That is priority #1. But, being “EDUCATED” is also learning how to carry yourself in society and “LEARNING” about all different types of people. Not, just your own.
Don’t think for a moment, because your child is in an affluent area in either public or a private school, that there won’t be problems. You are kidding yourself. Drugs, primarily, are WORSE in these affluent schools simply, because of greater access to money. In addition, if both parents are not home due to work, throw in some peer pressure, and you could have a recipe for disaster.
The last thing I would like to mention is, the role the MSM plays in all this. For years, they have reported how terrible and dangerous public schools are. And yes, in some cases this is true. But for most, it is not. Unfortunately you always hear about the schools that are in “Dangerous Areas” preying on peoples worst fears.
Let me tell you a quick story. Harvard Westlake is the most prominent private high school in Los Angeles. Last month, two students apparently were having some relationship issues. The boy convinced the girl to sit in his car where he promptly pulled out a claw hammer, and beat her over the head and shoulders, 22 times. Do you think that made it to the papers? No, of course not.
Sure there are other problems in public schools that I haven’t mentioned, (bad teachers, administrators etc…) And, we could debate this forever.

All I am trying to say is, don’t assume anything because it is a public or a private school. Do your own homework, and find out what is best, for your own child.

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[Anonymous]

There is nothing more dangerous than families with money, brains, and weak or no beliefs. Harvard-Westlake, La Jolla Country Day, and Francis Parker are private schools that have no religious element. I would never allow my children to attend them.

We send our kids to Evans/Bishops because they are private and religious. We believe that kids need both to learn and to, more importantly, develop proper character.

Private schools without religion merely ensure that your kids get higher quality drugs than the kids at public schools get.

[latesummer2008]

Religious Schools don’t have ANY drugs? What about people that don’t practice that religion? What do they learn about them?

Sounds like another blanket statement, saying that if your kids have religion, they are fine.

I’d say Pandora’s box is now open…

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[NotCranky]

You are really asking for it now JG!
On that note I think I will go to bed!
Best wishes.

[cyphire]

Ahhh jg.. Until now I thought you had your head together!!!

What do you call religion? The uber-drug!

My kids have awesome morals and a highly developed social conscious… We do all that without outsourcing to a fantasy. This isn’t the thread for it but in my opinion religion doesn’t seem to do anything positive to a kids development other than fill their heads with lies and teaches prejudice.

Bishops is an awesome school… The children who attend are Episcopalians, Catholics, Jews, Muslims, Hindus, Budhists and even Athiests!

Each to his own I guess – but it’s sad to keep hearing the same tired platitude from people that ‘religion = morality’. Your idea that religion in school keeps drugs out is quite a bold concept and a statement made with blinders on. Kids get their values from their parents and environment. The more religious the environment – the less openness. So religion is sometimes the problem, it sure isn’t a solution.

Places like Francis Parker, LJCDS, and even Bishop’s have drug problems. Rich kids with indifferent parents will always get the best drugs. Religious school or secular. Poke around and take off the blinders – you might get an epiphany!

[cyphire]

Ahhh jg.. Until now I thought you had your head together!!!

What do you call religion? The uber-drug!

My kids have awesome morals and a highly developed social conscious… We do all that without outsourcing to a fantasy. This isn’t the thread for it but in my opinion religion doesn’t seem to do anything positive to a kids development other than fill their heads with lies and teaches prejudice.

Bishops is an awesome school… The children who attend are Episcopalians, Catholics, Jews, Muslims, Hindus, Budhists and even Athiests!

Each to his own I guess – but it’s sad to keep hearing the same tired platitude from people that ‘religion = morality’. Your idea that religion in school keeps drugs out is quite a bold concept and a statement made with blinders on. Kids get their values from their parents and environment. The more religious the environment – the less openness. So religion is sometimes the problem, it sure isn’t a solution.

Places like Francis Parker, LJCDS, and even Bishop’s have drug problems. Rich kids with indifferent parents will always get the best drugs. Religious school or secular. Poke around and take off the blinders – you might get an epiphany!

[NotCranky]

You are really asking for it now JG!
On that note I think I will go to bed!
Best wishes.

[latesummer2008]

Religious Schools don’t have ANY drugs? What about people that don’t practice that religion? What do they learn about them?

Sounds like another blanket statement, saying that if your kids have religion, they are fine.

I’d say Pandora’s box is now open…

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[Drew]

jg,

Having attended public schools my entire life, and had many friends and a few girlfriends that attended private religious schools, I say this in response to your statement:

ahem… “HAHAHHAHAHAHHA”

Some of the most strung out, permisquis, socially screwed up people I grew up with attended private religious schools here in San Diego. That said, many of them turned out fairly well and sucessful later in life. But at the end of the day, I feel that proper parenting plays a greater roll, along with the avenues (socially, academically, etc) provided.

To say that the only way to raise a properly adjusted, socially responsible child is to enroll them into a private school (religious or not), shows a disconnect from reality. If you would like to raise good kids and eventually adults, enroll them in a good school (public or private), be a responsible parent, and understand that the remainder requires the kid to make the right decisions on their own.

[lostkitty]

JG- You must be KIDDING me (or yourself)… you can't seriously believe what you wrote about Bishop's. My first serious boyfriend went to Bishop's. he and all his friends had one persona for the adults to see (nice haircuts, clean cars and clothes, decent grades) and a completely OTHER persona on their own. i went to all their parties, and let me tell you… those kids were nuts! MUCH worse than the TPHS kids. The drugs were rampant. Many had international connections to drugs and it flowed freely. And.. dont forget this guy: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Phillip_Cunanan

[latesummer2008]

Lostkitty,

Touche!!!!!!!!!!

[lostkitty]

Thank you very much… I’ll be here all week….

[NotCranky]

Not to ruin anyone’s Sunday brunch but my intuition pestered me about the possibilty of molestation in his private school or church playing a part in Cunanan’s moral decay. Was Bishop’s or and related church if there is one ever said to be involved the molestation scandals that have been brought to light nationwide?

[cyphire]

You wouldnt find that in Bishop’s – it’s not a private Catholic school or a very repressed school like Evan’s. It’s an open, warm, amazing school with teachers who are at the top of their form.

I do know, however, that some seniors, with LOTS of money do quite a bit of molestation – but I’m assuming that most of it is mutual.

I’m hoping that religion in schools gets supplanted by civics and tolerance classes. Again – the lessons kids get at home and the supervision is critical. And of course kids in wealthy private schools need the same or better supervision because of the easy access to credit (sounds like the mortgage/equity market problem!)

Great posts all – and I’ve seen some things at Bishop’s and other schools which, unfortuntely I can’t post…. But it wasn’t because of religion in the school!

[NotCranky]

“I do know, however, that some seniors, with LOTS of money do quite a bit of molestation – but I’m assuming that most of it is mutual.”

I didn’t know there was such a thing as mutual molestation?
I thought that was called sex?

When I traveled in Mexico I was made aware of a very stratified society. I was told that individuals from “la crema” “the creme” had many ills that the lower class would never dream of or at least, survive to perpetuate. I think that can be relevant in this country too. Evidently the protection that wealth and power provides is pretty broad in some instances.

Anyway it is unfair to implant this stuff into a debate about public or private schools. I think Drews opinion sums it up for me anyway. Our kids are going to go to a school it is our job to protect guide and be responsible for them not the schools. My Reforms of public schools would be drastic. An education would be returned to the status of a privelege not a right. Nobody would be denied an education but it would be in line with their behavior and talents.If the parents were so defective as to not be able to support an educational system the kids would go to orphanges and get their educaton there. Hopefully that incentive would be enough, with some other reforms to turn eduaction around without the need for to many family interventions. serious school reform would require an overhall of our entire society at this point and I don’t see it happening.

[cyphire]

I sort of agree with you Rustico – I think that secondary education (College, University, et ct) should be a privilege. Only thing is that grammar and high school should be the opposite.

I think it’s society’s burden to education it’s citizens. The less involved the parents, the less education they themselves have perpetuates the crime and poverty in every country in the world.

The better the environment a kid comes from, the less need for getting the family / home lessons in a school. I’d be willing to bet that an inner city kid with a single working mom and no supervision could achieve the same great results as a middle class kid in a nice home with 2 supportive parents if their education was comparable.

If kids have the ability and desire above that – they should earn college. You know it’s funny…. The world is such a crappy place for so many billions of people – it seems that education is the difference. We only pay lip service to it in this country. The US education system will be the real problem on our downward slide to a third rate country.

Do you know how hard kids work in India and China when they get the opportunity to go to school? They cram, they study, they read, they practice on each other, they commit suicide sometimes from the enormous pressure they are under by their parents. Many of them are the only hope for the family to raise themselves out of poverty.

We have lost that desire in this country. Not everyone – but the numbers show just how deluded we are in thinking we actually get a quality education with the system we are in.

[NotCranky]

I am not picking on single moms at all as I believe they have nurtured many a family through tough situations. How do you get the average kid with rotten parenting to get a good education when that kid can’t behave in class past the third grade and at which point he starts down grading everyone else’s opportunities? Then the law says the best thing to do is to leave these acting out kids, in the mainstream classroom for as long as they manage to drag themselves to school. Then from about the ninth grade they start dropping out ,best case scenario, or worst case shifting out of the education system into the penal system.Those are the ones that don’t end up in “Special-Ed” I have worked in Special-Ed for a brief time and I can tell you special-ed with the exception of the truly disabled is a catch all for kids like I am talking about. Kids from screwed up families. We should not just sit around and watch rotten parents drag kids down acedemically anymore than we would tolerate other forms of child abuse.Those families go completely without consequences unless they are physically torturing the kids.I know, I was told to look for cigarette burns on a 4th grade kid because the fact that his two 500lb welfare parents who didn’t care if the kid went to school or not, living in 4 feet of garbage were not indication enough that something was wrong. Some kids from terrible situations do reasonably well inspite of the parenting of course. Those kids are the exception though. Why do kids have to depend on the luck of the draw of parents or some exceptional inner strength to get some leadership and a decent education in a constructive enviornment? Because our society does not care or dare to intervene.

[cyphire]

agree…

[cyphire]

agree…

[NotCranky]

I am not picking on single moms at all as I believe they have nurtured many a family through tough situations. How do you get the average kid with rotten parenting to get a good education when that kid can’t behave in class past the third grade and at which point he starts down grading everyone else’s opportunities? Then the law says the best thing to do is to leave these acting out kids, in the mainstream classroom for as long as they manage to drag themselves to school. Then from about the ninth grade they start dropping out ,best case scenario, or worst case shifting out of the education system into the penal system.Those are the ones that don’t end up in “Special-Ed” I have worked in Special-Ed for a brief time and I can tell you special-ed with the exception of the truly disabled is a catch all for kids like I am talking about. Kids from screwed up families. We should not just sit around and watch rotten parents drag kids down acedemically anymore than we would tolerate other forms of child abuse.Those families go completely without consequences unless they are physically torturing the kids.I know, I was told to look for cigarette burns on a 4th grade kid because the fact that his two 500lb welfare parents who didn’t care if the kid went to school or not, living in 4 feet of garbage were not indication enough that something was wrong. Some kids from terrible situations do reasonably well inspite of the parenting of course. Those kids are the exception though. Why do kids have to depend on the luck of the draw of parents or some exceptional inner strength to get some leadership and a decent education in a constructive enviornment? Because our society does not care or dare to intervene.

[cyphire]

I sort of agree with you Rustico – I think that secondary education (College, University, et ct) should be a privilege. Only thing is that grammar and high school should be the opposite.

I think it’s society’s burden to education it’s citizens. The less involved the parents, the less education they themselves have perpetuates the crime and poverty in every country in the world.

The better the environment a kid comes from, the less need for getting the family / home lessons in a school. I’d be willing to bet that an inner city kid with a single working mom and no supervision could achieve the same great results as a middle class kid in a nice home with 2 supportive parents if their education was comparable.

If kids have the ability and desire above that – they should earn college. You know it’s funny…. The world is such a crappy place for so many billions of people – it seems that education is the difference. We only pay lip service to it in this country. The US education system will be the real problem on our downward slide to a third rate country.

Do you know how hard kids work in India and China when they get the opportunity to go to school? They cram, they study, they read, they practice on each other, they commit suicide sometimes from the enormous pressure they are under by their parents. Many of them are the only hope for the family to raise themselves out of poverty.

We have lost that desire in this country. Not everyone – but the numbers show just how deluded we are in thinking we actually get a quality education with the system we are in.

[NotCranky]

“I do know, however, that some seniors, with LOTS of money do quite a bit of molestation – but I’m assuming that most of it is mutual.”

I didn’t know there was such a thing as mutual molestation?
I thought that was called sex?

When I traveled in Mexico I was made aware of a very stratified society. I was told that individuals from “la crema” “the creme” had many ills that the lower class would never dream of or at least, survive to perpetuate. I think that can be relevant in this country too. Evidently the protection that wealth and power provides is pretty broad in some instances.

Anyway it is unfair to implant this stuff into a debate about public or private schools. I think Drews opinion sums it up for me anyway. Our kids are going to go to a school it is our job to protect guide and be responsible for them not the schools. My Reforms of public schools would be drastic. An education would be returned to the status of a privelege not a right. Nobody would be denied an education but it would be in line with their behavior and talents.If the parents were so defective as to not be able to support an educational system the kids would go to orphanges and get their educaton there. Hopefully that incentive would be enough, with some other reforms to turn eduaction around without the need for to many family interventions. serious school reform would require an overhall of our entire society at this point and I don’t see it happening.

[cyphire]

You wouldnt find that in Bishop’s – it’s not a private Catholic school or a very repressed school like Evan’s. It’s an open, warm, amazing school with teachers who are at the top of their form.

I do know, however, that some seniors, with LOTS of money do quite a bit of molestation – but I’m assuming that most of it is mutual.

I’m hoping that religion in schools gets supplanted by civics and tolerance classes. Again – the lessons kids get at home and the supervision is critical. And of course kids in wealthy private schools need the same or better supervision because of the easy access to credit (sounds like the mortgage/equity market problem!)

Great posts all – and I’ve seen some things at Bishop’s and other schools which, unfortuntely I can’t post…. But it wasn’t because of religion in the school!

[NotCranky]

Not to ruin anyone’s Sunday brunch but my intuition pestered me about the possibilty of molestation in his private school or church playing a part in Cunanan’s moral decay. Was Bishop’s or and related church if there is one ever said to be involved the molestation scandals that have been brought to light nationwide?

[lostkitty]

Thank you very much… I’ll be here all week….

[latesummer2008]

Lostkitty,

Touche!!!!!!!!!!

[Anonymous]

You’re right, lk, Andrew must have been a deeply religious man to be a male prostitute and a murderer.

Stalin went to seminary as a young man. He turned out rather ‘unChristian,’ too.

Religion can’t save everyone; we Catholics acknowledge the awesome power of nature (vs. nurture). But, for those of us within two standard deviations of normal, it sure does help.

[lostkitty]

Rustico,

You wrote: “My Reforms of public schools would be drastic. An education would be returned to the status of a privelege not a right. Nobody would be denied an education but it would be in line with their behavior and talents.If the parents were so defective as to not be able to support an educational system the kids would go to orphanges and get their educaton there.”

Very interesting idea… I like it. It would save a lot fo kids from some wicked parents.

As an aside, you write very insightfully. I love to read your posts. You are a true philosopher.

Keep those posts coming!

[NotCranky]

Lostkitty,
Thank you,your kind words mean a lot to me.

Just for laughs:

A compiliation of the most intense feedback for me so far on this blog goes like this…

Irreverent, bi-polar, philosopher,god!
I can appreciate them all, more or less!

Now I must stroll around the campus in my sandals and robe and devour a few tons of figs. Then beat up my neighbor for looking at me the wrong way. After that take all my belongings to charity before I sneak into JG’s church and replace all the Bibles with Thomas Paine’s “The Age of Reason”.

Best wishes.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

If the Andrew Cunanan example implies that religious schools produce sociopaths, then here’s one that illustrates that Harvard may be even more effective at it …
Ted Kaczynski was Harvard educated. As a child he attended public school and was promoted past a couple grades (once in elementary and once in high school).

What a great thread …
from the May show dropping …
to private vs public education …
to religion …
to molestation …
to sociopaths.

This one has it all.

[lostkitty]

Dont forget
– philosophy
– Nature vs. nurture

[lostkitty]

Dont forget
– philosophy
– Nature vs. nurture

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

If the Andrew Cunanan example implies that religious schools produce sociopaths, then here’s one that illustrates that Harvard may be even more effective at it …
Ted Kaczynski was Harvard educated. As a child he attended public school and was promoted past a couple grades (once in elementary and once in high school).

What a great thread …
from the May show dropping …
to private vs public education …
to religion …
to molestation …
to sociopaths.

This one has it all.

[cyphire]

Rustico – can I come with?

I love figs, and look sort of like David Koresh (at least before I cut my hair). I’m sure that I could start a cult and get lots of followers (girls). I guess we just have to decide what kind of cult we want to start – make everyone drink the kool-aid someday, or just sell flowers at the airport. I’m more in favor of the ‘have everyone sit in a room while I preach cult’ – give me their money so I can have a nice house / robes/ investments and blindly obey me.

Despite seeing the ‘Bad Seed’ when I was a kid – I would think that anyone within 2 standard deviations of the norm would probably be 100% finally influenced by the people around them. It’s kind of funny that I had great parents who gave me great lessons in life (without religion) and I turned out ok, but folks who also get a good foundation (with religion) seem to think that that is what did the trick. I’ve got two great kids who care for others, are sensitive, and are all around great kids – we do this without religion (actually by explaining to them our distrust and dislike of religion) – to help them evolve to the kind of people I would love to see in our society.

If religion gives people who have had bad times something to cling to – I understand. If people like the traditions and the social network – also seems to be a nice thing (if they can avoid being insular and tolerant of others). But, the belief in something which has no foundation or anchor in reality seems to always cause problems, grief and a huge amount of time wasting to the rest of society.

p.s. I’ve never really understood how 5 billion people can each belong to a different cult or splinter of the same cult – each absolutely convinced that they are in the right one (the other cults are such idiots aren’t they?) and most of them feeling that they hold the moral high ground while every day we see it’s not so. This isn’t the lessons we should be teaching to young impressionable minds.

[NotCranky]

I hear you CY,
Don’t get me going on religion. My irreverent streak will take us places you don’t want to go!
For the mean time I am being the best ecumenical deist I can be for the sake of my loved ones.
By the way you were raised way differently than I was and yet we both came to the same soulless ruin..imagine that!

If I were to use a psuedonym other than Rustico, which means
“unrefined or lacking in excess of labor”, it would be Malcom X and I am a 6’5″ blue-eyed devil!

What does your’s mean?

[cyphire]

I’m a computer guy who has never really hacked a system or done anything outside the law – so I am pretending to be a big bad hakuir like Hiro Protagonist from the book Snowcrash. In reality I’m a mild mannered business minded entrepreneur in software/computer systems.

I really shouldn’t be ranting about religion in this forum, it’s probably not appropriate. My wife won’t let me talk religion or politics at parties – and she’s right! I’m just frustrated in a society which spends more time watching American Idol than trying to make it a better place (including myself).

By the way – I am also 6’5″… Thats pretty rare. We could be power forwards for the Piggington basketball club. (If we had lots of breaks for coffee / doughnuts / checking the real estate forums)

[NotCranky]

CY,
I actually used to be able to “slam dunk”, barely . Now I am afraid to jump! I can’t spell entrepeneur,oh yes I can, anyway I probably are one. I have managed not to have a real job for almost 10 years to no gain. I have a few good ideas for what I believe are marketable products. I am in need of overcoming the inertia and ignorance to go out and do something that might at the very least pay royalties. I have a real estate license but have always been either a dabbler or on the sidelines. I look forward to the market changing to something I can get excited about. Mean while I will get my broker’s license. I am also a general contractor who avoids contracts like the plague,generally an over qualified DIYER.I do my own crude drafting of architecturally unimportant homes…very unlike the one you posted a picture of.

[NotCranky]

CY,
I actually used to be able to “slam dunk”, barely . Now I am afraid to jump! I can’t spell entrepeneur,oh yes I can, anyway I probably are one. I have managed not to have a real job for almost 10 years to no gain. I have a few good ideas for what I believe are marketable products. I am in need of overcoming the inertia and ignorance to go out and do something that might at the very least pay royalties. I have a real estate license but have always been either a dabbler or on the sidelines. I look forward to the market changing to something I can get excited about. Mean while I will get my broker’s license. I am also a general contractor who avoids contracts like the plague,generally an over qualified DIYER.I do my own crude drafting of architecturally unimportant homes…very unlike the one you posted a picture of.

[cyphire]

I’m a computer guy who has never really hacked a system or done anything outside the law – so I am pretending to be a big bad hakuir like Hiro Protagonist from the book Snowcrash. In reality I’m a mild mannered business minded entrepreneur in software/computer systems.

I really shouldn’t be ranting about religion in this forum, it’s probably not appropriate. My wife won’t let me talk religion or politics at parties – and she’s right! I’m just frustrated in a society which spends more time watching American Idol than trying to make it a better place (including myself).

By the way – I am also 6’5″… Thats pretty rare. We could be power forwards for the Piggington basketball club. (If we had lots of breaks for coffee / doughnuts / checking the real estate forums)

[NotCranky]

I hear you CY,
Don’t get me going on religion. My irreverent streak will take us places you don’t want to go!
For the mean time I am being the best ecumenical deist I can be for the sake of my loved ones.
By the way you were raised way differently than I was and yet we both came to the same soulless ruin..imagine that!

If I were to use a psuedonym other than Rustico, which means
“unrefined or lacking in excess of labor”, it would be Malcom X and I am a 6’5″ blue-eyed devil!

What does your’s mean?

[cyphire]

Rustico – can I come with?

I love figs, and look sort of like David Koresh (at least before I cut my hair). I’m sure that I could start a cult and get lots of followers (girls). I guess we just have to decide what kind of cult we want to start – make everyone drink the kool-aid someday, or just sell flowers at the airport. I’m more in favor of the ‘have everyone sit in a room while I preach cult’ – give me their money so I can have a nice house / robes/ investments and blindly obey me.

Despite seeing the ‘Bad Seed’ when I was a kid – I would think that anyone within 2 standard deviations of the norm would probably be 100% finally influenced by the people around them. It’s kind of funny that I had great parents who gave me great lessons in life (without religion) and I turned out ok, but folks who also get a good foundation (with religion) seem to think that that is what did the trick. I’ve got two great kids who care for others, are sensitive, and are all around great kids – we do this without religion (actually by explaining to them our distrust and dislike of religion) – to help them evolve to the kind of people I would love to see in our society.

If religion gives people who have had bad times something to cling to – I understand. If people like the traditions and the social network – also seems to be a nice thing (if they can avoid being insular and tolerant of others). But, the belief in something which has no foundation or anchor in reality seems to always cause problems, grief and a huge amount of time wasting to the rest of society.

p.s. I’ve never really understood how 5 billion people can each belong to a different cult or splinter of the same cult – each absolutely convinced that they are in the right one (the other cults are such idiots aren’t they?) and most of them feeling that they hold the moral high ground while every day we see it’s not so. This isn’t the lessons we should be teaching to young impressionable minds.

[NotCranky]

Lostkitty,
Thank you,your kind words mean a lot to me.

Just for laughs:

A compiliation of the most intense feedback for me so far on this blog goes like this…

Irreverent, bi-polar, philosopher,god!
I can appreciate them all, more or less!

Now I must stroll around the campus in my sandals and robe and devour a few tons of figs. Then beat up my neighbor for looking at me the wrong way. After that take all my belongings to charity before I sneak into JG’s church and replace all the Bibles with Thomas Paine’s “The Age of Reason”.

Best wishes.

[lostkitty]

Rustico,

You wrote: “My Reforms of public schools would be drastic. An education would be returned to the status of a privelege not a right. Nobody would be denied an education but it would be in line with their behavior and talents.If the parents were so defective as to not be able to support an educational system the kids would go to orphanges and get their educaton there.”

Very interesting idea… I like it. It would save a lot fo kids from some wicked parents.

As an aside, you write very insightfully. I love to read your posts. You are a true philosopher.

Keep those posts coming!

[lostkitty]

jg-

You wrote: “Religion can’t save everyone; we Catholics acknowledge the awesome power of nature (vs. nurture). But, for those of us within two standard deviations of normal, it sure does help.”

So do you mean that it was ‘nature’ that caused Andrew C. to become a murderer? He was born to be a murderer?

Just trying to understand your meaning.

[Anonymous]

Yes, lk, it happens.

A good friend of mine told me a chilling story. His grandparents awoke to a find a foundling on their doorstep. They adopted the son and raised him as their own. The grandparents were good folks — he was a mechanical engineering professor in the Upper Midwest. The adopted son and their natural son were raised in a similar fashion, but were truly different: the adopted son was gregarious, athletic, the natural son was reserved and thoughtful.

On his death bed, the adopted son admitted to having killed three of three of his wives and a son; the deaths were suspicious — fire, falling in the Grand Canyon, etc.

No, nature is a very powerful force. Yes, some people are born evil.

[Anonymous]

Na-na. My public school kid is smarter than your private school kid, jg.

I’d bet money on it. 🙂 Sorry, old old grudge. Don’t think I’ve posted here in 6 months.

How many $k do you spend a yr on private school to keep your kids away from people like me? Hey, I don’t hate you for it. But my straight-A 13yr old 8th grader is taking HS geometry in college this summer so she can take two years of calculus in HS while completing her IB degree–at a public school. Everyone here posts their incomes; when she takes them, I’ll post her freshman PSAT (yes, I’m making her take it as a freshman).

So, it that nuture or nature? 🙂

Great thing about succesfull parenting–you win either way.

[cyphire]

Kudos to you kristinejm thats awesome.

I have one in public and one in private – I actually took my son out of the private school because it was a repressive and somewhat poor educational experience for us.

My daughter goes to private school and it’s not to keep her away from ‘bad kids’ (I went to public school) – just that it is a superior education if it’s the right kid and the right school. As the previous posts acknowledge – I’m more worried about ultra-rich kids with poor morals and parents who aren’t really parenting. Schools with too much money have their own set of problems.

I also took 2 semesters of Calculus in High School with college credit at public school and my parents wouldn’t accept anything less than an A.

Each school and each kid is different. It really comes down to how involved the parents are – you should be really proud of yourself and your daughter.

[lostkitty]

cyphire and rustico –

Did you guys see my post about TechCoast Angels? I directed it to cyphire, and posted under off-topic.

You guys would probably enjoy being a part of it. Entrepreneurs everywhere!!! If I still lived in San Diego I’d be there. I am definitely of the entrepreneurial spirit as well, but only in a limited way… because if an idea will take me away from my 3 kids and parenting too much, I wont do it.

K

[cyphire]

No lostkitty – where did you post it?

Actually it’s pretty funny but I’m about to start a company which has a lot to do with that. Everyone tells me to check out that org – but i’m in the middle of a business transaction right now that I hope will culminate soon.

Also TechExec.

Thanks and send me an update…

[lostkitty]

Cyphire-

This is a bit strange linking to this same site, but here goes:

http://piggington.com/cyphire_entrepreneurial_mentoring_group

It is a cool organization.  Friend of mine (not my father, but might as well be) is an entrepreneurial mentor (he's otherwise retired) and actively participates in this group. 

K

[lostkitty]

Cyphire-

This is a bit strange linking to this same site, but here goes:

http://piggington.com/cyphire_entrepreneurial_mentoring_group

It is a cool organization.  Friend of mine (not my father, but might as well be) is an entrepreneurial mentor (he's otherwise retired) and actively participates in this group. 

K

[cyphire]

No lostkitty – where did you post it?

Actually it’s pretty funny but I’m about to start a company which has a lot to do with that. Everyone tells me to check out that org – but i’m in the middle of a business transaction right now that I hope will culminate soon.

Also TechExec.

Thanks and send me an update…

[NotCranky]

Thanks lostkitty,
I will investigate, so far I get easily distracted with other interesting pursuits. I am going to fit in small steps some how on some of these ideas of mine.

Congratualtions on your family. We have three boys 4 and under!The oldest is very curious about religion(since we have been on this topic). He has reminded me of what a huge part of our society the various religions are. We have him in a bilingual preschool, which is located in a church, a few days a week. He is made more aware of God and Jesus from the hispanic teachers and aids.

[lostkitty]

Rustico-
I think religion is nice for kids that age. Makes them feel good.

As for the getting “easily distracted with other interesting pursuits”… have you ever heard of Barbara Sher? She writes really interesting stuff about that. It is called being “scanner” and I am definitely one too! I have an endless array of ideas I am interested in. I cycle through them, and some i come back too, some I do not.

Any of her books make for good reading (and quick, funny, too) and help you focus and take action on those ideas. They are usually at the library…..

K

[NotCranky]

“think religion is nice for kids that age. Makes them feel good.” It was great for me as long as “Jesus Loves the Little Children” and free snow cones was as far as it got. Unfortunately it got much more unacceptable as time passed, you know, learned about being ashamed of myself, the inquisition and things like that!.Who knows if we had stayed in the church JG and I could be ideological partners on the blog? My wife and I are planning on taking the kids to a Unitarian Congregation that I participated in off and on prior to getting married.Maybe I would enjoy it more with a family too? Seeing them get something out of it would be enough though. Of course you understand that already!

Lost Kitty “scanner” sounds so much better then scatter brained and lazy! You have piqued my interest with the book and I will read it. Thanks so much!

[CardiffBaseball]

What is all this talk of guilt and shame? Too many religious right types drive people away I suppose.

"Come to me, all you that are weary and are carrying heavy burdens, and I will give you rest. Take my yoke upon you, and learn from me; for I am gentle and humble in heart, and you will find rest for your souls. For my yoke is easy, and my burden is light."

Grace, the forgotten word.

[CardiffBaseball]

What is all this talk of guilt and shame? Too many religious right types drive people away I suppose.

"Come to me, all you that are weary and are carrying heavy burdens, and I will give you rest. Take my yoke upon you, and learn from me; for I am gentle and humble in heart, and you will find rest for your souls. For my yoke is easy, and my burden is light."

Grace, the forgotten word.

[lostkitty]

The book is called “Refuse to Choose”. Like i said, it should be at the library.

Will change the way you think about everything you do. People like us tend to get a lot of prejects piled up behind us and “unfinished”. This’ll drag you down and make you feel like you cant complete anything – BUT – it is all in how you think about it!

Since reading her books (I saw her on PBS in 2003 the first time) I now accomplish MUCH more. I leave just as much unfinished, but i dont care about that stuff anymore. If it is interesting to me… I am confident I’ll come back to it someday. If not, well then i didnt need to waste any more time on it anyway!

I just love the author. She’s brilliant.

[cyphire]

My kids like Harry Potter. The difference is that they know it’s fiction. I got lots of life lessons from the books of Robert Heinlein and other great authors. If I started a church and called it PotterWorld and proclaimed Harry as god, most people would scoff at me. I would be ridiculed.

So imagine my dismay at being in a world where perfectly intelligent people insist that because their parents told them so that there is a God – and anyone who doesn’t believe is somehow wrong…

Seriously – I’m not against religion – people can believe anything they want – I’m against people not keeping it to themselves (They are starting to scare me). As it happens I don’t profess that Harry Potter is god, but if I did I would keep it to myself.

[Anonymous]

Oh, quit being so narrow-minded, cyphire. You libs proclaim your views on ‘Bush being an idiot,’ ‘Drive a Prius before you heat us,’ etc. We conservatives proclaim our views on the primacy of Christianity. What’s the difference?

I’m willing to tolerate your silly views on politics because you have worthwhile perspectives on real estate and the economy. Extend us conservatives with defensible perspectives on real estate and economy the same courtesy, please.

[drunkle]

Oh, quit being so narrow-minded, cyphire. You libs proclaim your views on ‘Bush being an idiot,’ ‘Drive a Prius before you heat us,’ etc. We conservatives proclaim our views on the primacy of Christianity. What’s the difference?

I’m willing to tolerate your silly views on politics because you have worthwhile perspectives on real estate and the economy. Extend us conservatives with defensible perspectives on real estate and economy the same courtesy, please.

narrow-minded…

btw, there’s history, evidence, fact behind the claims that bush is an idiot and that temps are rising.

not all conservatives are bushtians.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Did Bush drop his shoe ? Was the dropping of his shoe caused by global warming ? Was the fetus who would grow to be the woman who was going to invent the ideal clean and renewable energy source and avert global catastrophy aborted prior to birth ?

Who cares ?
This thread started in the RE portion of the site. We should start another off-topic thread if you want to debate politics, religion and moral issues.

[lostkitty]

"Seriously – I'm not against religion – people can believe anything they want – I'm against people not keeping it to themselves (They are starting to scare me). As it happens I don't profess that Harry Potter is god, but if I did I would keep it to myself. "

They are scaring me too.  I know many a family that will not even allow their children to read Harry Potter because of the 'dark element' within.  The Devil is somehow lurking between those pages and going to turn their children into monsters.  Seems like a control issue. 

 For those always asking that the topics stay on RE – I think you might have learned from being around here so long that the topics are inseperable. Likewise, one cannot comment on the Tulip bubble without discussing the social issues surrounding and augmenting it, and the social issues which sped up and accompanied the crash afterwards. 

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

It is perfectly acceptable to have non=-RE discussions. This site has several forums in different categories to accommodate this.

I am simply suggesting that we could separate discussions on the financial impact of Tulipmania from the impact of the intelligence of Pope Urban VIII on the outcome of the Thirty Years’ War.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

It is perfectly acceptable to have non=-RE discussions. This site has several forums in different categories to accommodate this.

I am simply suggesting that we could separate discussions on the financial impact of Tulipmania from the impact of the intelligence of Pope Urban VIII on the outcome of the Thirty Years’ War.

[Ash Housewares]

Getting back to the “nature vs nurture” thing, I have two cousins, both adopted by my aunt/uncle at the same time, when both were very young. The two cousins are not biologically related. One is very outgoing and participates in some risky behavior. The other is extremely quite and is working her way through college.

This is as close to a “scientific” trial as I think you can get without examining data on thousands of people. You have two children both adopted early on, with drastically different outcomes.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I think that Pope Urban VIII’s apostolic uncle had more impact on him than his brother. This early influence is what propelled Pope Urban VIII and ultimately led to him becoming Pope. His actions and policies contributed to the Tulipmania bubble.

Being a bit dim-witted (he once almost choked to death on Communion, which he often snacked on as he watched sporting events on his couch), the Pope’s misguided policy’s aimed at extended the power and reach of Italy and the Church and his call to Galileo to recant his discoveries inadvertantly led to a long and protracted struggle, which lasted thirty years, and is known coincidentally as the Thirty Years’ War.

The struggle of the Thirty Years’ War impacted continental Eurpope’s supply of tulip bulbs. Also, the policies of the Vatican, which promoted speculation in floral goods, also contributed, as did a global glut of fertilizer which chased more and more speculative floral products.

[NotCranky]

Former,
I think sarcasm should not be allowed by anyone but me. Go hi-jack your own thread. Enough of us already hi-jacked this one as you noted.
The derailing started innocently enough with discussion of the quality of schools,which in my opinion is very RE related. A few personal attacks and we were off to the races. It was fun for some of us. and educational for JG. So if you don’t like having fun go somewhere else!

Seriously I do feel guilty about getting way off topic. What else am I supposed to feel I am a former Catholic?

For the record I did not say I am a better Christian than JG.I am not a Christian. I just think he has one of the least Christian outlooks on the blog and yet he is the most fervently supportive of religion and even then probably only his, or the ones that a small percentage of republicrats adhere to.

By the way Former I appreciate how you offered Latesummer an olive branch a couple of days ago. I suppose I should start a new Thread for that too?lol

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

“By the way Former I appreciate how you offered Latesummer an olive branch a couple of days ago. I suppose I should start a new Thread for that too?lol”

Rustico – Make sure you start the thread under the KUMBAYA section of the forums.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

jg – I am poking fun at my own religion. I was using a term that the general public might associate with the Communion wafer itself.

RETRACTION: I meant to state that “Pope Urban snacked on un-consecrated Communion wafers.”

Hope that clears it up …

I hereby formally apologize to my teachers, nuns, lay persons, and Benedictine monks who taught me during my 12 years of Catholic school and two years of Catholic college for mistakingly using the word Communion, and also to my child’s second grade religion teachers, the RCIA directors, and the old lady that kneels behind us in church who rolls her eyes at the behavior of my kids during the Eucharistic Prayer.

[Anonymous]

FSD, I forgive you, and will say a ‘Hail Mary’ for you tomorrow during my morning walk with my beagle.

[NotCranky]

http://tsc.kidsmusicweb.com/songs/kumbaya.html

I think I am going to cry and then make myself feel better with a nice snow cone!

Good Morning JG. I hope you have “brought Data.”:).

[Anonymous]

Good morning, R-. I’m still miffed because you did write ‘I am more christian than you are.’ Nevertheless, I’ll say a ‘Hail Mary’ for you, too, Mr. Sinner, tomorrow morning.

[NotCranky]

Yes JG I did write that with the understanding that “Cristian” means “christ like” not “religious” …”christ like” as in compassionate. Anyway you are being a good sport with the “Hail Mary” and all…I’ll say the “lords prayer” a couple of times for both of us! Now youv’e got me reverting to my schizmatic days where I was hung up between religion and reality.
Best wishes

[cyphire]

Opps – sorry all – I have inflamed the religion aspect (I do admit a very strong bias – there are two worlds – the world of people who believe the dogma, and the world of people who consider it fantasy. These worlds will NEVER agree). This is a real estate blog and I will endevor to back off the anti-psalm singing as much as I can! Mea Culpa JG.

Bush is a horrific president – this has nothing to do with Religion. Conservatives do not all embrace religion – they are different topics. I am conservative in some of my beliefs, but am liberal in many. I do believe that the right wing (much of conservatives and Republicans) are ultimately based on greed – pure and simple. People vote their pocketbooks and most unfortunately many vote against their pocketbooks (without realizing it) because of disinformation, fear mongering, and carrots being held out to them. Amazing the vast number of people that vote Republican because of fear of higher taxes, changes in capital gains, more socialism, etc. when they are in the vast bracket which would benefit from them.

I don’t drive a Prius – but would support across the board legislation to clean up the environment both here and abroad. We have clean air rules here in this country – but we buy ALL our stuff from China and allow them to do what they want. Imagine if we required the Chinese to conform to strict environmental standards in order to buy each item they produce. We would have somewhat competitive marketplaces and we would from a business prospective increase business, not decrease it.

Again – FormerSanDiegan – no more religion here from me (unless attacked so everyone – don’t do it!). I’m not sure how much of the tulip story paralleled theBushMeister and if there was any reality – but economics is an amazing discipline – there is so much outside the study which affects the rest.

Anyway – Just completed my move to Bird Rock in La Jolla. I am hopefully gonna stay here a while. I promised my wife that I wouldn’t discuss politics, religion, or falling house prices with the neighbors as I do not want to be shunned by those who will not follow me as the prophet returned!

Now to continue the unpacking…..

[NotCranky]

CY,
Sometimes there is a price to pay for being sensitive, astute and Fearless. Unfortnatley it usually hits the popularity issue.

The good news is nobody has been banned from this blog since you have been ohterwise engaged. That is a wonderful testimony to free speech.IMHO.

We have however, picked up a couple of FBI lurkors as the result of a thread on Voting.

Going to take kids to a birthday party soon. Have fun.

[cyphire]

Have fun at the party… If the FBI has time to monitor this blog, they have too much time on their hands!

Instead of unpacking I have been playing Halo. Its my way of fighting “the war on terror”TM If I let anyone get the rocket launcher the terrorists win.

Rent vs. Buy – one reason that renting seems to work for me now is that while I am spending some money getting this new house in shape for my needs, I will only spend so much as it isn’t my house. I spend money like a drunken sailor – renting a house definitely holds back my primal urges.

Additionally – while I don’t get any appreciation in the house (moot point because as most of us agree appreciation is out the window for a while) – I also don’t have to spend any money to fix it as it ages.

The rent isn’t cheap but probably am paying 40% of what the mortgage / taxes would cost me.

Back to the unpacking….

[cyphire]

Have fun at the party… If the FBI has time to monitor this blog, they have too much time on their hands!

Instead of unpacking I have been playing Halo. Its my way of fighting “the war on terror”TM If I let anyone get the rocket launcher the terrorists win.

Rent vs. Buy – one reason that renting seems to work for me now is that while I am spending some money getting this new house in shape for my needs, I will only spend so much as it isn’t my house. I spend money like a drunken sailor – renting a house definitely holds back my primal urges.

Additionally – while I don’t get any appreciation in the house (moot point because as most of us agree appreciation is out the window for a while) – I also don’t have to spend any money to fix it as it ages.

The rent isn’t cheap but probably am paying 40% of what the mortgage / taxes would cost me.

Back to the unpacking….

[NotCranky]

CY,
Sometimes there is a price to pay for being sensitive, astute and Fearless. Unfortnatley it usually hits the popularity issue.

The good news is nobody has been banned from this blog since you have been ohterwise engaged. That is a wonderful testimony to free speech.IMHO.

We have however, picked up a couple of FBI lurkors as the result of a thread on Voting.

Going to take kids to a birthday party soon. Have fun.

[cyphire]

Opps – sorry all – I have inflamed the religion aspect (I do admit a very strong bias – there are two worlds – the world of people who believe the dogma, and the world of people who consider it fantasy. These worlds will NEVER agree). This is a real estate blog and I will endevor to back off the anti-psalm singing as much as I can! Mea Culpa JG.

Bush is a horrific president – this has nothing to do with Religion. Conservatives do not all embrace religion – they are different topics. I am conservative in some of my beliefs, but am liberal in many. I do believe that the right wing (much of conservatives and Republicans) are ultimately based on greed – pure and simple. People vote their pocketbooks and most unfortunately many vote against their pocketbooks (without realizing it) because of disinformation, fear mongering, and carrots being held out to them. Amazing the vast number of people that vote Republican because of fear of higher taxes, changes in capital gains, more socialism, etc. when they are in the vast bracket which would benefit from them.

I don’t drive a Prius – but would support across the board legislation to clean up the environment both here and abroad. We have clean air rules here in this country – but we buy ALL our stuff from China and allow them to do what they want. Imagine if we required the Chinese to conform to strict environmental standards in order to buy each item they produce. We would have somewhat competitive marketplaces and we would from a business prospective increase business, not decrease it.

Again – FormerSanDiegan – no more religion here from me (unless attacked so everyone – don’t do it!). I’m not sure how much of the tulip story paralleled theBushMeister and if there was any reality – but economics is an amazing discipline – there is so much outside the study which affects the rest.

Anyway – Just completed my move to Bird Rock in La Jolla. I am hopefully gonna stay here a while. I promised my wife that I wouldn’t discuss politics, religion, or falling house prices with the neighbors as I do not want to be shunned by those who will not follow me as the prophet returned!

Now to continue the unpacking…..

[NotCranky]

Yes JG I did write that with the understanding that “Cristian” means “christ like” not “religious” …”christ like” as in compassionate. Anyway you are being a good sport with the “Hail Mary” and all…I’ll say the “lords prayer” a couple of times for both of us! Now youv’e got me reverting to my schizmatic days where I was hung up between religion and reality.
Best wishes

[Anonymous]

Good morning, R-. I’m still miffed because you did write ‘I am more christian than you are.’ Nevertheless, I’ll say a ‘Hail Mary’ for you, too, Mr. Sinner, tomorrow morning.

[NotCranky]

http://tsc.kidsmusicweb.com/songs/kumbaya.html

I think I am going to cry and then make myself feel better with a nice snow cone!

Good Morning JG. I hope you have “brought Data.”:).

[Anonymous]

FSD, I forgive you, and will say a ‘Hail Mary’ for you tomorrow during my morning walk with my beagle.

[Anonymous]

Which Catholic college, FSD?

Too bad USD blew it in the first round of the college baseball tournament. Quite the season that they had, reaching the top five. Neat, that good schools such as Rice, Vanderbilt, and Virginia made it to the top 10.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

“Which Catholic college, FSD?”

Benedictine College – Atchison, KS

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

“Which Catholic college, FSD?”

Benedictine College – Atchison, KS