Magic Ball Needed

[hipmatt]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
What arraya said.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

My point was that prices will fall to where they’re going to fall and they’re not going to adhere to a scientific formula. The economy, inventory of homes for sale, affordability, availabiliy of mortgage money, public trust in the housing market, etc. will determine the level that prices will fall to. They may be 2003 prices or they may be 1995 prices……………..nobody knows because this bubble is different in so many ways from past bubbles.

I am not the one that put out there that prices may fall to 1998 levels, even without accounting for inflation, not me.

My point was to point out in stark terms exactly what your statement means. 1998 prices = 1991 prices. Even at historically low levels of inflation, over that period of time inflation matters and is significant. Back then a gallon of milk was about $1.25. It’s basically the same gallon of milk, so why is milk $3.50 a gallon (or more) today. Milk is not more desireable today than it was 10 or 15 years ago. I know that everybody wants to buy some, but still, it’s the same milk.

Inflation happens.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

My point was that prices will fall to where they’re going to fall and they’re not going to adhere to a scientific formula. The economy, inventory of homes for sale, affordability, availabiliy of mortgage money, public trust in the housing market, etc. will determine the level that prices will fall to. They may be 2003 prices or they may be 1995 prices……………..nobody knows because this bubble is different in so many ways from past bubbles.

I am not the one that put out there that prices may fall to 1998 levels, even without accounting for inflation, not me.

My point was to point out in stark terms exactly what your statement means. 1998 prices = 1991 prices. Even at historically low levels of inflation, over that period of time inflation matters and is significant. Back then a gallon of milk was about $1.25. It’s basically the same gallon of milk, so why is milk $3.50 a gallon (or more) today. Milk is not more desireable today than it was 10 or 15 years ago. I know that everybody wants to buy some, but still, it’s the same milk.

Inflation happens.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

My point was that prices will fall to where they’re going to fall and they’re not going to adhere to a scientific formula. The economy, inventory of homes for sale, affordability, availabiliy of mortgage money, public trust in the housing market, etc. will determine the level that prices will fall to. They may be 2003 prices or they may be 1995 prices……………..nobody knows because this bubble is different in so many ways from past bubbles.

I am not the one that put out there that prices may fall to 1998 levels, even without accounting for inflation, not me.

My point was to point out in stark terms exactly what your statement means. 1998 prices = 1991 prices. Even at historically low levels of inflation, over that period of time inflation matters and is significant. Back then a gallon of milk was about $1.25. It’s basically the same gallon of milk, so why is milk $3.50 a gallon (or more) today. Milk is not more desireable today than it was 10 or 15 years ago. I know that everybody wants to buy some, but still, it’s the same milk.

Inflation happens.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

My point was that prices will fall to where they’re going to fall and they’re not going to adhere to a scientific formula. The economy, inventory of homes for sale, affordability, availabiliy of mortgage money, public trust in the housing market, etc. will determine the level that prices will fall to. They may be 2003 prices or they may be 1995 prices……………..nobody knows because this bubble is different in so many ways from past bubbles.

I am not the one that put out there that prices may fall to 1998 levels, even without accounting for inflation, not me.

My point was to point out in stark terms exactly what your statement means. 1998 prices = 1991 prices. Even at historically low levels of inflation, over that period of time inflation matters and is significant. Back then a gallon of milk was about $1.25. It’s basically the same gallon of milk, so why is milk $3.50 a gallon (or more) today. Milk is not more desireable today than it was 10 or 15 years ago. I know that everybody wants to buy some, but still, it’s the same milk.

Inflation happens.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

My point was that prices will fall to where they’re going to fall and they’re not going to adhere to a scientific formula. The economy, inventory of homes for sale, affordability, availabiliy of mortgage money, public trust in the housing market, etc. will determine the level that prices will fall to. They may be 2003 prices or they may be 1995 prices……………..nobody knows because this bubble is different in so many ways from past bubbles.

I am not the one that put out there that prices may fall to 1998 levels, even without accounting for inflation, not me.

My point was to point out in stark terms exactly what your statement means. 1998 prices = 1991 prices. Even at historically low levels of inflation, over that period of time inflation matters and is significant. Back then a gallon of milk was about $1.25. It’s basically the same gallon of milk, so why is milk $3.50 a gallon (or more) today. Milk is not more desireable today than it was 10 or 15 years ago. I know that everybody wants to buy some, but still, it’s the same milk.

Inflation happens.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

*An engineer will be standing at the finish line with a slide rule and will carefully measure the slide of prices against inflation. He will raise a checkered flag and tell everyone when the bottom is reached by using a formula.

I agree with your (sarcastic, but well-put) point here.
We can’t really precisely identify a future price. There are too many variables, as well as time lags in data, and the wild card of buyer psychology.

However, that is no excuse for being sloppy. Thanks to Rich, this site has always attracted a fair number of analytical types. After all the motto at the bottom of the page is “In God We Trust. All Others Bring Data.” Although, my bet is that if God did log in with some comments, some people (including me) would probably call bull$h!t on it and ask him to back it up with some facts.
But I digress …

I’m not saying prices won’t revert to 1998 levels. My point is that if someone is going to throw out a number, a date or a price level, they should know what that implies.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

*An engineer will be standing at the finish line with a slide rule and will carefully measure the slide of prices against inflation. He will raise a checkered flag and tell everyone when the bottom is reached by using a formula.

I agree with your (sarcastic, but well-put) point here.
We can’t really precisely identify a future price. There are too many variables, as well as time lags in data, and the wild card of buyer psychology.

However, that is no excuse for being sloppy. Thanks to Rich, this site has always attracted a fair number of analytical types. After all the motto at the bottom of the page is “In God We Trust. All Others Bring Data.” Although, my bet is that if God did log in with some comments, some people (including me) would probably call bull$h!t on it and ask him to back it up with some facts.
But I digress …

I’m not saying prices won’t revert to 1998 levels. My point is that if someone is going to throw out a number, a date or a price level, they should know what that implies.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

*An engineer will be standing at the finish line with a slide rule and will carefully measure the slide of prices against inflation. He will raise a checkered flag and tell everyone when the bottom is reached by using a formula.

I agree with your (sarcastic, but well-put) point here.
We can’t really precisely identify a future price. There are too many variables, as well as time lags in data, and the wild card of buyer psychology.

However, that is no excuse for being sloppy. Thanks to Rich, this site has always attracted a fair number of analytical types. After all the motto at the bottom of the page is “In God We Trust. All Others Bring Data.” Although, my bet is that if God did log in with some comments, some people (including me) would probably call bull$h!t on it and ask him to back it up with some facts.
But I digress …

I’m not saying prices won’t revert to 1998 levels. My point is that if someone is going to throw out a number, a date or a price level, they should know what that implies.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

*An engineer will be standing at the finish line with a slide rule and will carefully measure the slide of prices against inflation. He will raise a checkered flag and tell everyone when the bottom is reached by using a formula.

I agree with your (sarcastic, but well-put) point here.
We can’t really precisely identify a future price. There are too many variables, as well as time lags in data, and the wild card of buyer psychology.

However, that is no excuse for being sloppy. Thanks to Rich, this site has always attracted a fair number of analytical types. After all the motto at the bottom of the page is “In God We Trust. All Others Bring Data.” Although, my bet is that if God did log in with some comments, some people (including me) would probably call bull$h!t on it and ask him to back it up with some facts.
But I digress …

I’m not saying prices won’t revert to 1998 levels. My point is that if someone is going to throw out a number, a date or a price level, they should know what that implies.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

*An engineer will be standing at the finish line with a slide rule and will carefully measure the slide of prices against inflation. He will raise a checkered flag and tell everyone when the bottom is reached by using a formula.

I agree with your (sarcastic, but well-put) point here.
We can’t really precisely identify a future price. There are too many variables, as well as time lags in data, and the wild card of buyer psychology.

However, that is no excuse for being sloppy. Thanks to Rich, this site has always attracted a fair number of analytical types. After all the motto at the bottom of the page is “In God We Trust. All Others Bring Data.” Although, my bet is that if God did log in with some comments, some people (including me) would probably call bull$h!t on it and ask him to back it up with some facts.
But I digress …

I’m not saying prices won’t revert to 1998 levels. My point is that if someone is going to throw out a number, a date or a price level, they should know what that implies.

[jimcav]

arraya,
i’d like to rent a 3 bedroom place (hopefully home) in 92103, or possibly 92106. where do you do your weekly rent checking? I am only using craiglist (i am not in san diego, but tranfer there in mid-late july)
thanks
jim

[jimcav]

arraya,
i’d like to rent a 3 bedroom place (hopefully home) in 92103, or possibly 92106. where do you do your weekly rent checking? I am only using craiglist (i am not in san diego, but tranfer there in mid-late july)
thanks
jim

[jimcav]

arraya,
i’d like to rent a 3 bedroom place (hopefully home) in 92103, or possibly 92106. where do you do your weekly rent checking? I am only using craiglist (i am not in san diego, but tranfer there in mid-late july)
thanks
jim

[jimcav]

arraya,
i’d like to rent a 3 bedroom place (hopefully home) in 92103, or possibly 92106. where do you do your weekly rent checking? I am only using craiglist (i am not in san diego, but tranfer there in mid-late july)
thanks
jim

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