Magic Ball Needed

[waitingpatiently]

I know that there is no way of knowing where prices will end up but I would appreciate any opinions. My patience is growing thin and I believe that my husband and I will be pulling the trigger by the end of next summer. I know that this won’t be the bottom but we sold in 2006 and will be buying our “forever” house. We have been looking at houses in La Costa Valley, Sante Fe Trails, La Costa Oaks, Sonata and other developments in the S. Carlsbad/Encinitas area. So my question to the piggs is, what price range do you THINK a 4/3 sfr will be next summer?

And one more question…How does one go about finding a real estate agent that will stick to our game plan of low balling? We have family/friends that are agents but we don’t believe in mixing the two.

Okay one more…if given a chance would you buy your dream house with 60% down or would you buy a smaller house and a rental?

[four walling]

how about this guy?

http://www.bubbleinfo.com/

Jim the Realtor seems to be a straight shooter and this is the area he specializes in.

[four walling]

how about this guy?

http://www.bubbleinfo.com/

Jim the Realtor seems to be a straight shooter and this is the area he specializes in.

[four walling]

how about this guy?

http://www.bubbleinfo.com/

Jim the Realtor seems to be a straight shooter and this is the area he specializes in.

[four walling]

how about this guy?

http://www.bubbleinfo.com/

Jim the Realtor seems to be a straight shooter and this is the area he specializes in.

[four walling]

how about this guy?

http://www.bubbleinfo.com/

Jim the Realtor seems to be a straight shooter and this is the area he specializes in.

[Ex-SD]

If you pull the “buy trigger” in the early fall of 2009, you will most likely regret it. The pain-train will not be fully passing through the areas where you are looking until late 2010-2011. My guess is that if you buy at the end of summer in 2009, you will probably overpay by around 25%. I used to live in the Leucadia/Encinitas area and have seen the pain-train pass through there before. Yes, when it hits one area, it eventually hits all areas.
But, then again………………………..I could always be wrong and history doesn’t teach us anything about housing bubbles, or does it?

[Ex-SD]

If you pull the “buy trigger” in the early fall of 2009, you will most likely regret it. The pain-train will not be fully passing through the areas where you are looking until late 2010-2011. My guess is that if you buy at the end of summer in 2009, you will probably overpay by around 25%. I used to live in the Leucadia/Encinitas area and have seen the pain-train pass through there before. Yes, when it hits one area, it eventually hits all areas.
But, then again………………………..I could always be wrong and history doesn’t teach us anything about housing bubbles, or does it?

[Ex-SD]

If you pull the “buy trigger” in the early fall of 2009, you will most likely regret it. The pain-train will not be fully passing through the areas where you are looking until late 2010-2011. My guess is that if you buy at the end of summer in 2009, you will probably overpay by around 25%. I used to live in the Leucadia/Encinitas area and have seen the pain-train pass through there before. Yes, when it hits one area, it eventually hits all areas.
But, then again………………………..I could always be wrong and history doesn’t teach us anything about housing bubbles, or does it?

[Ex-SD]

If you pull the “buy trigger” in the early fall of 2009, you will most likely regret it. The pain-train will not be fully passing through the areas where you are looking until late 2010-2011. My guess is that if you buy at the end of summer in 2009, you will probably overpay by around 25%. I used to live in the Leucadia/Encinitas area and have seen the pain-train pass through there before. Yes, when it hits one area, it eventually hits all areas.
But, then again………………………..I could always be wrong and history doesn’t teach us anything about housing bubbles, or does it?

[Ex-SD]

If you pull the “buy trigger” in the early fall of 2009, you will most likely regret it. The pain-train will not be fully passing through the areas where you are looking until late 2010-2011. My guess is that if you buy at the end of summer in 2009, you will probably overpay by around 25%. I used to live in the Leucadia/Encinitas area and have seen the pain-train pass through there before. Yes, when it hits one area, it eventually hits all areas.
But, then again………………………..I could always be wrong and history doesn’t teach us anything about housing bubbles, or does it?

[temeculaguy]

I love it! Pain Train analogies, good show EX-SD.

Waitingpatiently, do as your name implies and just wait and see, with markets such as those you are going to have to. You may be suprised, it might come earlier, it might be worse than you expected, both happened to my market. Before you dismiss it because of the positive things going for your chosen markets understand that historically the premium for the premium areas as a percentage is fairly constant. If it cost twice as much to live in the premium areas and all areas doubled then retreated but the premium areas didn’t retreat, then the same happened in again in the next bubble, eventually the premium areas would command ten times what the other areas do, and that is not reality, so do not lose hope, the train is a coming.

Do not set calendar goals, set price goals with fundamental verification. A while back I set price goals but with the kicker that I would combine it with declining nod’s, not’s and inventory. My price goals were reached way ahead of schedule but the kicker hasn’t kicked, the nods, nots and inventory are still rising so I keep waiting. Start making charts and spreadsheets, pick data points and track them, they will help you keep your sanity and keep you from missing out. If your price goals were met by the end of the year but nod’s, nots and inventory were double what they are today and were rising, would you buy? Don’t just pull an “I want an oompa loompa and I want one now,” make it a game and win it.

[temeculaguy]

I love it! Pain Train analogies, good show EX-SD.

Waitingpatiently, do as your name implies and just wait and see, with markets such as those you are going to have to. You may be suprised, it might come earlier, it might be worse than you expected, both happened to my market. Before you dismiss it because of the positive things going for your chosen markets understand that historically the premium for the premium areas as a percentage is fairly constant. If it cost twice as much to live in the premium areas and all areas doubled then retreated but the premium areas didn’t retreat, then the same happened in again in the next bubble, eventually the premium areas would command ten times what the other areas do, and that is not reality, so do not lose hope, the train is a coming.

Do not set calendar goals, set price goals with fundamental verification. A while back I set price goals but with the kicker that I would combine it with declining nod’s, not’s and inventory. My price goals were reached way ahead of schedule but the kicker hasn’t kicked, the nods, nots and inventory are still rising so I keep waiting. Start making charts and spreadsheets, pick data points and track them, they will help you keep your sanity and keep you from missing out. If your price goals were met by the end of the year but nod’s, nots and inventory were double what they are today and were rising, would you buy? Don’t just pull an “I want an oompa loompa and I want one now,” make it a game and win it.

[temeculaguy]

I love it! Pain Train analogies, good show EX-SD.

Waitingpatiently, do as your name implies and just wait and see, with markets such as those you are going to have to. You may be suprised, it might come earlier, it might be worse than you expected, both happened to my market. Before you dismiss it because of the positive things going for your chosen markets understand that historically the premium for the premium areas as a percentage is fairly constant. If it cost twice as much to live in the premium areas and all areas doubled then retreated but the premium areas didn’t retreat, then the same happened in again in the next bubble, eventually the premium areas would command ten times what the other areas do, and that is not reality, so do not lose hope, the train is a coming.

Do not set calendar goals, set price goals with fundamental verification. A while back I set price goals but with the kicker that I would combine it with declining nod’s, not’s and inventory. My price goals were reached way ahead of schedule but the kicker hasn’t kicked, the nods, nots and inventory are still rising so I keep waiting. Start making charts and spreadsheets, pick data points and track them, they will help you keep your sanity and keep you from missing out. If your price goals were met by the end of the year but nod’s, nots and inventory were double what they are today and were rising, would you buy? Don’t just pull an “I want an oompa loompa and I want one now,” make it a game and win it.

[temeculaguy]

I love it! Pain Train analogies, good show EX-SD.

Waitingpatiently, do as your name implies and just wait and see, with markets such as those you are going to have to. You may be suprised, it might come earlier, it might be worse than you expected, both happened to my market. Before you dismiss it because of the positive things going for your chosen markets understand that historically the premium for the premium areas as a percentage is fairly constant. If it cost twice as much to live in the premium areas and all areas doubled then retreated but the premium areas didn’t retreat, then the same happened in again in the next bubble, eventually the premium areas would command ten times what the other areas do, and that is not reality, so do not lose hope, the train is a coming.

Do not set calendar goals, set price goals with fundamental verification. A while back I set price goals but with the kicker that I would combine it with declining nod’s, not’s and inventory. My price goals were reached way ahead of schedule but the kicker hasn’t kicked, the nods, nots and inventory are still rising so I keep waiting. Start making charts and spreadsheets, pick data points and track them, they will help you keep your sanity and keep you from missing out. If your price goals were met by the end of the year but nod’s, nots and inventory were double what they are today and were rising, would you buy? Don’t just pull an “I want an oompa loompa and I want one now,” make it a game and win it.

[Author]

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