Looks like another Housing Bubble is about to burst

[flyer]

Even with the slowdown, and the censorship issues, China is poised to become the #1 film market in the world very soon, per below. As film investors, we’ve seen this market grow exponentially in recent years, as China’s affluent younger generation and the middle class continue to explode.
http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/envelope/cotown/la-et-ct-china-growth-20151105-story.html

[Anonymous]

What does it mean to be film investor, aside from buying Disney stock?

[Coronita]

[quote=ocrenter][quote=flu]Yes, and you know what’s happening right? All the slightly weaithier ones (including the ones that made an honest business) are quickly trying to move their assets to Europe, the U.S. and Canada. Because when the crapper hits the fan, anyone that is wealth(ier) is a sitting target by the government.[/quote]

very timely WSJ article:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/china-capital-outflows-bubble-below-the-surface-1474357050

[img_assist|nid=26028|title=chinese capital outflow|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=351][/quote]

Yup.. That outflow has to be parked somewhere…..

[Coronita]

[quote=AN][quote=ocrenter][quote=flu-redux][quote=The-Shoveler][quote=flu]

Carlsbad now.[/quote]
Wow, close to my end of town.

Living or just working?

Carlsbad has grownup a lot in the last 10 years, kind of spilling over into the surrounds as well.[/quote]

Working, though the thought of getting a second home has crossed my mind.[/quote]

well at least you are going against traffic.

gonna be difficult to arrange a lunch get-together then…[/quote]There’s always Carmel Valley as a place in the middle.[/quote]

True. On one day each week, we’re required to take a 3 hour “recess” after lunch. I usually take that time to run on the beach. But I don’t mind driving a little bit to meet for lunch. Getting to RB though was tough. Last time I dropped my car off for a recall, it took me like 1hr 30 minutes one way.

[flyer]

[quote=harvey]What does it mean to be film investor, aside from buying Disney stock?[/quote]

Definitely hard to beat the Disney stock thing, but since my wife has connections in the business, a group of us have been involved in investing in both studio and independent film projects for several years.

We’ve had a couple of losers, but, overall, things have worked out well, with Avatar being our best project to date, and sequels in the works. In many cases, global box office continues to outpace domestic, and it seems that will continue to be the case going forward.

[ocrenter]

[quote=flu][quote=AN][quote=ocrenter][quote=flu-redux][quote=The-Shoveler][quote=flu]

Carlsbad now.[/quote]
Wow, close to my end of town.

Living or just working?

Carlsbad has grownup a lot in the last 10 years, kind of spilling over into the surrounds as well.[/quote]

Working, though the thought of getting a second home has crossed my mind.[/quote]

well at least you are going against traffic.

gonna be difficult to arrange a lunch get-together then…[/quote]There’s always Carmel Valley as a place in the middle.[/quote]

True. On one day each week, we’re required to take a 3 hour “recess” after lunch. I usually take that time to run on the beach. But I don’t mind driving a little bit to meet for lunch. Getting to RB though was tough. Last time I dropped my car off for a recall, it took me like 1hr 30 minutes one way.[/quote]

Carmel valley or Serranto Valley would work on a Friday for me.

[earlyretirement]

[quote=flu][quote=AN][quote=ocrenter][quote=flu-redux][quote=The-Shoveler][quote=flu]

Carlsbad now.[/quote]
Wow, close to my end of town.

Living or just working?

Carlsbad has grownup a lot in the last 10 years, kind of spilling over into the surrounds as well.[/quote]

Working, though the thought of getting a second home has crossed my mind.[/quote]

well at least you are going against traffic.

gonna be difficult to arrange a lunch get-together then…[/quote]There’s always Carmel Valley as a place in the middle.[/quote]

True. On one day each week, we’re required to take a 3 hour “recess” after lunch. I usually take that time to run on the beach. But I don’t mind driving a little bit to meet for lunch. Getting to RB though was tough. Last time I dropped my car off for a recall, it took me like 1hr 30 minutes one way.[/quote]

Hey flu! You’re still on my list of have to meet posters. I’ve met several posters from Piggington and all were really grounded, intelligent people. Definitely we’ll have to meet up. Let me know if you and ocrenter meet up for lunch and I’d love to meet you as well.

I haven’t read the forum in a long time but ocrenter told me about his post so I had to check it out. I had lunch with Rich a few months ago and was great catching up. Miss reading this board.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=flu]
Yup.. That outflow has to be parked somewhere…..[/quote]

I was thinking about that…
The money leaving China for relative safety in the West is not a bad thing for China and doesn’t reflect things falling apart over there.

As China becomes more successful, for country of 1.3 billion, there will always be a top tranche who seeks the best education for their kids. The advantage for us, Americans, is that “Wall Street” American English and US universities are prestigious. The Chinese love and want to buy prestige if they can afford it.

Even if they move abroad, the smart Chinese who made their fortune in China will always work to keep their connections for future business opportunities. In California or whatever new home they select, they will look for more business opportunities and that can only enhance cross-country trade.

All and all, the overseas Chinese community is a great asset for China. They help bring top knowledge and best practices to China.

[Escoguy]

2015 data point: 22 Trillion:

http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/45-trillion-reasons-why-china-cant-challenge-america’s-14087

But need to acknowledge that even with the short comings, there is still a lot of money that can come here and will, even if it comes in unevenly.

A few billion here, a few billion there.

I remember going to Hong Kong in 1994 when they were saying Americans were coming late to the party, yes there was a downturn after that but the boom a few years later made it looks like a great time to invest.

If you have a long enough time horizon, even a pull back doesn’t need to hurt.

[ocrenter]

[quote=Escoguy]2015 data point: 22 Trillion:

http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/45-trillion-reasons-why-china-cant-challenge-america’s-14087

But need to acknowledge that even with the short comings, there is still a lot of money that can come here and will, even if it comes in unevenly.

A few billion here, a few billion there.

I remember going to Hong Kong in 1994 when they were saying Americans were coming late to the party, yes there was a downturn after that but the boom a few years later made it looks like a great time to invest.

If you have a long enough time horizon, even a pull back doesn’t need to hurt.[/quote]

That’s for sure. China is a developing country with a lot of developing yet to be done. Especially in its vast interior. When compared to developed economies, there is always more money to be made in developing economies, as a general rule. To suggest China is stagnating forever and growth is coming to an end would be foolish. Just demographically, China will become the largest country economically within a few more years. I have no doubt about that.

That said, the current trend suggests a crash. But they’ll bounce back, overall long term horizon is good.

Kinda like our Great Recession and crash 8 years ago. Everything pointed to an immediate crash, but long term prospectives on the US of A was good.

[Coronita]

[quote=earlyretirement][quote=flu][quote=AN][quote=ocrenter][quote=flu-redux][quote=The-Shoveler][quote=flu]

Carlsbad now.[/quote]
Wow, close to my end of town.

Living or just working?

Carlsbad has grownup a lot in the last 10 years, kind of spilling over into the surrounds as well.[/quote]

Working, though the thought of getting a second home has crossed my mind.[/quote]

well at least you are going against traffic.

gonna be difficult to arrange a lunch get-together then…[/quote]There’s always Carmel Valley as a place in the middle.[/quote]

True. On one day each week, we’re required to take a 3 hour “recess” after lunch. I usually take that time to run on the beach. But I don’t mind driving a little bit to meet for lunch. Getting to RB though was tough. Last time I dropped my car off for a recall, it took me like 1hr 30 minutes one way.[/quote]

Hey flu! You’re still on my list of have to meet posters. I’ve met several posters from Piggington and all were really grounded, intelligent people. Definitely we’ll have to meet up. Let me know if you and ocrenter meet up for lunch and I’d love to meet you as well.

I haven’t read the forum in a long time but ocrenter told me about his post so I had to check it out. I had lunch with Rich a few months ago and was great catching up. Miss reading this board.[/quote]

Absolutely. Sorry, guys I’ve been neglecting a meeting in person because it’s the start of the school year, and I think I’ve over-committed during the day to what I said I was going to volunteer for between coaching sports and math/science leagues at my kid’s school. I’ve also got a few product launches at work we’ve need to get done before holiday sales starts, and even though my team is “done”, we’re waiting on others, and often what they do ends up making us do last minute changes, which we won’t find out, until, well the last minute, lol.

Maybe this week, we’ll see how things went over the weekend with the other team we’re counting on. If not, workload should drop off significantly towards the end of October. I have about 5-6 weeks of vacation I’ve scheduled thereafter.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=ocrenter]

That’s for sure. China is a developing country with a lot of developing yet to be done. Especially in its vast interior. When compared to developed economies, there is always more money to be made in developing economies, as a general rule. To suggest China is stagnating forever and growth is coming to an end would be foolish. Just demographically, China will become the largest country economically within a few more years. I have no doubt about that.

That said, the current trend suggests a crash. But they’ll bounce back, overall long term horizon is good.

Kinda like our Great Recession and crash 8 years ago. Everything pointed to an immediate crash, but long term prospectives on the US of A was good.[/quote]

I tend to think of China as several “countries” within one. There are modern parts, rural parts, etc…

I don’t really see a 2008 global recession starting in China. Our banks and European banks don’t have exposure to Chinese debt that fueled those ghost town developments. Maybe an S&L type crisis within China.

Hong Kong is interesting. Even after the handover to China, real estate in HK kept on escalating. Now the most expensive in the world ppsf, I believe.

[ocrenter]

[quote=flu]

Maybe this week, we’ll see how things went over the weekend with the other team we’re counting on. If not, workload should drop off significantly towards the end of October. I have about 5-6 weeks of vacation I’ve scheduled thereafter.[/quote]

let’s plan for something in the late October timeframe.

[ocrenter]

[quote=FlyerInHi]

I tend to think of China as several “countries” within one. There are modern parts, rural parts, etc…

I don’t really see a 2008 global recession starting in China. Our banks and European banks don’t have exposure to Chinese debt that fueled those ghost town developments. Maybe an S&L type crisis within China.

Hong Kong is interesting. Even after the handover to China, real estate in HK kept on escalating. Now the most expensive in the world ppsf, I believe.[/quote]

China is essentially multiple countries disguised as (or forced into) a singular nation. Multiple languages that would otherwise be national languages are instead termed “regional dialects” to minimize their status and importance. The ethnic diversity within China varies as widely as the entirety of Europe. When it comes to its economy, tier 1 cities and coastal provinces are essentially near par with the Asian Tigers, with some of the inland provinces as poor as the Central Asian “stans,” with everything else somewhere in between.

We are already seeing significant hit on the commodities with the China slowdown. with so much Chinese money flowing out into international real estate, if that outflow stops, what happens to the real estate markets that are exposed to Chinese money?

We may not see global recession, but China is plugged in enough to cause significant changes.

[Author]

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